Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment

Several aspects of terrestrial ecosystems are known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through effects of the NAO on winter climate, but recently the winter NAO has also been shown to be correlated with the following summer climate, including drought. Since drought is a major factor determining grassland primary productivity, the hypothesis was tested that the winter NAO is associated with summer herbage growth through soil moisture availability, using data from the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted, UK between 1960 and 1999. The herbage growth rate, mean daily rainfall, mean daily potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the mean and maximum potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) were calculated between the two annual cuts in early summer and autumn for the unlimed, unfertilized plots. Mean and maximum PSMD were more highly correlated than rainfall or PE with herbage growth rate. Regression analysis showed that the natural logarithm of the herbage growth rate approximately halved for a 250 mm increase in maximum PSMD over the range 50-485 mm. The maximum PSMD was moderately correlated with the preceding winter NAO, with a positive winter NAO index associated with greater maximum PSMD. A positive winter NAO index was also associated with low herbage growth rate, accounting for 22% of the interannual variation in the growth rate. It was concluded that the association between the winter NAO and summer herbage growth rate is mediated by the PSMD in summer.

Effects of contrasting forage diets on phosphorus utilisation in lactating dairy cows

The effects of different forage mixtures on duodenal flow and faecal output of phosphorus (P) were measured in lactating dairy cows in two experiments. The forages comprised grass silage (GS) alone or mixtures of GS and urea-treated whole crop wheat (WCW). Replacement of GS by high levels of WCW resulted in a significant decrease in total P (TP), water-soluble P (WSP) and acid-soluble P (ASP) intakes, but increased phytate P (PP) and acid-insoluble P (AIP) intakes. Duodenal flows of all P fractions were unaffected by dietary treatments. However, the amounts of all fractions flowing to the intestine were much higher than the amounts consumed-with the exception of AIP, which was unchanged, and PP, which was considerably reduced. Diets did not significantly affect faecal outputs of TP, ASP, PP and AIP; however, faecal outputs of WSP were significantly higher on WCW than GS diets. Inclusion of WCW significantly decreased TP and WSP availabilities in the total tract but did not affect PP and AIP availabilities. A new fraction of P, which was not present in the feeds, was found in significant amounts in the intestines and proved to be soluble in dilute acid but insoluble in water. Estimated annual excretions for a herd of 100 cows ranged from 1550 to 1721 kg for total P of which 337-786 kg was WSP. The results suggest that GS based diets deposit more P in the environment. However, the potential to cause P pollution depends not only on the quantity but also on the nature of faecal P and on soil parameters. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive biology and population studies in two annual shuttle mosses

Observations on clumps of Phascum cuspidatum during the summer and autumn indicated that this species is at least a short-lived perennial, as young shoots develop from old, brown shoots persisting from the previous winter. No young shoots arising by vegetative propagation were recorded in Pottia truncata. Rhizoid tubers were observed in this species, but only in one of the many clumps examined. Spores of both species germinated freely in culture, but when spores were planted in the field young gametophytes developed inconsistently in P. truncata and never in P. cuspidatum. An investigation of spore deposition around an isolated clump of P. truncata suggested that 67% of the spores released were deposited within the clump, and 70% within 2m. Electrophoretic studies indicated limited genetic variation within two populations of each species, with no genotypes in common between the populations. No genetic variation was recorded between gametophytes within individual clumps of either species, nor between sporophytes and their maternal gametophytes, suggesting a high incidence of inbreeding in these monoecious mosses. (author abst.)

The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM

This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.

On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia

Queensland experiences considerable inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability, which impacts water-resource management, agriculture and infrastructure. To understand the mechanisms by which large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes drive these variations, empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to 1900–2010 seasonal Queensland rainfall. Fields from observations and the 20th Century Reanalysis are regressed onto the EOT timeseries to associate the EOTs with large-scale drivers. In winter, spring and summer the leading, state-wide EOTs are highly correlated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation modulates the summer ENSO teleconnection. In autumn, the leading EOT is associated with locally driven, late-season monsoon variations, while ENSO affects only tropical northern Queensland. Examining EOTs beyond the first, southeastern Queensland and the Cape York peninsula emerge as regions of coherent rainfall variability. In the southeast, rainfall anomalies respond to the strength and moisture content of onshore easterlies, controlled by Tasman Sea blocking. The summer EOT associated with onshore flow and blocking has been negative since 1970, consistent with the observed decline in rainfall along the heavily populated coast. The southeastern Queensland EOTs show considerable multi-decadal variability, which is independent of large-scale drivers. Summer rainfall in Cape York is associated with tropical-cyclone activity.

The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century

The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.

Variability and trends in stratospheric NO2 in Antarctic summer, and implications for stratospheric NOy

NO2 measurements during 1990–2007, obtained from a zenith-sky spectrometer in the Antarctic, are analysed to determine the long-term changes in NO2. An atmospheric photochemical box model and a radiative transfer model are used to improve the accuracy of determination of the vertical columns from the slant column measurements, and to deduce the amount of NOy from NO2. We find that the NO2 and NOy columns in midsummer have large inter-annual variability superimposed on a broad maximum in 2000, with little or no overall trend over the full time period. These changes are robust to a variety of alternative settings when determining vertical columns from slant columns or determining NOy from NO2. They may signify similar changes in speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation but with opposite sign, i.e. a broad minimum around 2000. Multiple regressions show significant correlation with solar and quasi-biennial-oscillation indices, and weak correlation with El Nino, but no significant overall trend, corresponding to an increase in Brewer-Dobson circulation of 1.4±3.5%/decade. There remains an unexplained cycle of amplitude and period at least 15% and 17 years, with minimum speed in about 2000.

Comparison of D-region Doppler drift winds measured by the SuperDARN Finland HF radar over an annual cycle using the Kiruna VHF meteor radar

The SuperDARN chain of oblique HF radars has provided an opportunity to generate a unique climatology of horizontal winds near the mesopause at a number of high latitude locations, via the Doppler shifted echoes from sources of ionisation in the D-region. Ablating meteor trails form the bulk of these targets, but other phenomena also contribute to the observations. Due to the poor vertical resolution of the radars, care must be taken to reduce possible biases from sporadic-E layers and Polar Mesospheric Summer echoes that can affect the effective altitude of the geophysical parameters being observed. Second, there is strong theoretical and observational evidence to suggest that the radars are picking up echoes from the backward looking direction that will tend to reduce the measured wind strengths. The effect is strongly frequency dependent, resulting in a 20% reduction at 12 MHz and a 50% reduction at 10 MHz. A comparison of the climatologies observed by the Super-DARN Finland radar between September 1999 and September 2000 and that obtained from the adjacent VHF meteor radar located at Kiruna is also presented. The agreement between the two instruments was very good. Extending the analysis to the SuperDARN Iceland East radar indicated that the principles outlined above could be applied successfully to the rest of the SuperDARN network.

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.

Annual CO-emissions of combined pellet and solar heating systems

Emissions are an important aspect of a pellet heating system. High carbon monoxide emissions are often caused by unnecessary cycling of the burner when the burner is operated below the lowest combustion power. Combining pellet heating systems with a solar heating system can significantly reduce cycling of the pellet heater and avoid the inefficient summer operation of the pellet heater. The aim of this paper was to study CO-emissions of the different types of systems and to compare the yearly CO-emissions obtained from simulations with the yearly CO-emissions calculated based on the values that are obtained by the standard test methods. The results showed that the yearly CO-emissions obtained from the simulations are significant higher than the yearly CO-emissions calculated based on the standard test methods. It is also shown that for the studied systems the average emissions under these realistic annual conditions were greater than the limit values of two Eco-labels. Furthermore it could be seen that is possible to almost halve the CO-emission if the pellet heater is combined with a solar heating system.

Annual pattern of plasma melatonin and progesterone concentrations in hair and wool ewe lambs kept under natural photoperiod at lower latitudes in the southern hemisphere

To study the annual pattern of plasma melatonin and progesterone concentrations in hair [Santa Ines (SI)] and wool [Romney Marsh (RM) and Suffolk (SU)] ewe lambs kept under natural photoperiods at 21 degrees 59'S, 12 ewe lambs (four/breed) were used. For melatonin, blood samples were collected monthly throughout the year at the onset (17:00, 19:00 and 21:00 hr) and end (04:00, 06:00 and 08:00 hr) of the night, and for progesterone the samples were collected in the morning, two to three times a week throughout the year. Plasma melatonin concentrations at different times of the day changed according to the season. In diurnal periods (17:00 and 8:00 hr) no seasonal differences were observed but they became evident in the nocturnal intervals (21:00 and 4:00 hr) and transitional night-day (6:00 hr) times. The patterns of melatonin secretion were higher in winter and autumn than in spring and summer. The patterns of plasma progesterone secretion were affected by interaction between breed and season. There was no seasonal variation in plasma progesterone concentrations for SI females. The progesterone pattern for RM and SU females varied with season. The plasma levels were higher in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. At 21 degrees 59'S hair and wool ewe lambs showed the same annual pattern of plasma melatonin concentration while the annual progesterone profiles were quite different. For SI females this pattern was constant along all seasons and for RM and SU females this pattern was higher during autumn and winter than spring and summer.