920 resultados para Sub-registry. Empirical bayesian estimator. General equation. Balancing adjustment factor


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Esta pesquisa teve por objetivos explicitar se e como a Bioética é tratada em Livros Didáticos de Biologia do Ensino Médio, bem como analisar de que maneira a abordagem do tema nestes livros contribui para que os estudantes possam conhecê-lo, tornando-se capazes de compreender e refletir, criticamente, sobre o assunto e suas questões no contexto contemporâneo. Para isso, investiguei livros propostos pelo Programa Nacional do Livro Didático para o Ensino Médio (PNLEM), à luz de alguns pressupostos da Metodologia de Análise de Conteúdo. Balizei esta pesquisa em duas questões norteadoras, a saber: (i) O que se escreve sobre bioética nos livros didáticos de biologia? (ii) Com que frequência e intensidade este tema é apresentado nestes livros didáticos? Nesta perspectiva, para a primeira questão, as proposições dos livros que subjazem ao tema puderam ser enquadradas em duas grandes categorias: bioética médica e bioética holística. Essas categorias de maior amplitude puderam ser divididas em subcategorias relativas aos diferentes tópicos e aspectos (clonagem, células-tronco, etc.) que fazem parte do campo teórico da bioética, em relação aos quais procurei fazer algumas inferências a respeito dos conteúdos manifestos e explícitos nos livros selecionados, que expressam algum tipo de reflexão sobre a ética dos assuntos enfocados, analisando-os à luz de referenciais teóricos da bioética. A análise da segunda questão prescindiu de divisão em subcategorias, pois, de maneira geral, a bioética é escassa e demasiadamente superficial na forma como tem sido apresentada nos livros didáticos, deixando de suscitar reflexões por parte do leitor. A abordagem de temas de bioética na Educação Básica é essencial, uma vez que os impactos causados pelo desenvolvimento tecno-científico estão cada vez mais acentuados na sociedade e no ambiente. Dessa maneira, torna-se imprescindível que os livros didáticos de Biologia passem por uma intensa reformulação no intuito de serem pedagogicamente complementados para acompanharem as mudanças propaladas pelas novas diretrizes e bases do sistema educacional brasileiro que, pelo menos em teoria, preconizam ações da Educação, sobretudo, da educação escolar, voltadas para uma eficiente e eficaz formação ética e cidadã.

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Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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A expansão da obesidade em diversos países do mundo na última década tem resultado no aumento da morbidade e mortalidade por hipertensão arterial e suas complicações. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a distribuição espacial da obesidade e hipertensão arterial no estado de São Paulo no período de 2000 a 2010, a partir de registros hospitalares e internação do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde (SIH - SUS). Foram utilizados coeficientes de prevalência das doenças em cada município suavizadas pelo método bayesiano empírico, permitindo uma visualização do padrão espacial dessas morbidades no Estado. Foi explorada a dependência espacial destes padrões verificando a autocorrelação entre os indicadores por meio do cálculo do Índice de Autocorrelação Espacial de Moran. Além disso, estudou-se a correlação positiva (Pearson) entre obesidade e hipertensão. Os dados e os mapas mostraram clusters de 87 municípios onde há maior e menor prevalência de hipertensão e obesidade no espaço com forte autocorrelação entre os municípios vizinhos. O coeficiente correlação de Pearson encontrado para esses municípios foi de 0,404 e sugere associação entre as morbidades. As técnicas de análise espacial mostraram-se úteis para o planejamento de ações de saúde pública.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Objective The Brazilian National Hansens Disease Control Program recently identified clusters with high disease transmission. Herein, we present different spatial analytical approaches to define highly vulnerable areas in one of these clusters. Method The study area included 373 municipalities in the four Brazilian states Maranha o, Para ', Tocantins and Piaui '. Spatial analysis was based on municipalities as the observation unit, considering the following disease indicators: (i) rate of new cases / 100 000 population, (ii) rate of cases < 15 years / 100 000 population, (iii) new cases with grade-2 disability / 100 000 population and (iv) proportion of new cases with grade-2 disabilities. We performed descriptive spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial scan statistic. Results A total of 254 (68.0%) municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (mean annual detection rates > 40 cases / 100 000 inhabitants). There was a concentration of municipalities with higher detection rates in Para ' and in the center of Maranha o. Spatial scan statistic identified 23 likely clusters of new leprosy case detection rates, most of them localized in these two states. These clusters included only 32% of the total population, but 55.4% of new leprosy cases. We also identified 16 significant clusters for the detection rate < 15 years and 11 likely clusters of new cases with grade-2. Several clusters of new cases with grade-2 / population overlap with those of new cases detection and detection of children < 15 years of age. The proportion of new cases with grade-2 did not reveal any significant clusters. Conclusions Several municipality clusters for high leprosy transmission and late diagnosis were identified in an endemic area using different statistical approaches. Spatial scan statistic is adequate to validate and confirm high-risk leprosy areas for transmission and late diagnosis, identified using descriptive spatial analysis and using local empirical Bayesian method. National and State leprosy control programs urgently need to intensify control actions in these highly vulnerable municipalities.

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The present work concerns with the study of debris flows and, in particular, with the related hazard in the Alpine Environment. During the last years several methodologies have been developed to evaluate hazard associated to such a complex phenomenon, whose velocity, impacting force and inappropriate temporal prediction are responsible of the related high hazard level. This research focuses its attention on the depositional phase of debris flows through the application of a numerical model (DFlowz), and on hazard evaluation related to watersheds morphometric, morphological and geological characterization. The main aims are to test the validity of DFlowz simulations and assess sources of errors in order to understand how the empirical uncertainties influence the predictions; on the other side the research concerns with the possibility of performing hazard analysis starting from the identification of susceptible debris flow catchments and definition of their activity level. 25 well documented debris flow events have been back analyzed with the model DFlowz (Berti and Simoni, 2007): derived form the implementation of the empirical relations between event volume and planimetric and cross section inundated areas, the code allows to delineate areas affected by an event by taking into account information about volume, preferential flow path and digital elevation model (DEM) of fan area. The analysis uses an objective methodology for evaluating the accuracy of the prediction and involve the calibration of the model based on factors describing the uncertainty associated to the semi empirical relationships. The general assumptions on which the model is based have been verified although the predictive capabilities are influenced by the uncertainties of the empirical scaling relationships, which have to be necessarily taken into account and depend mostly on errors concerning deposited volume estimation. In addition, in order to test prediction capabilities of physical-based models, some events have been simulated through the use of RAMMS (RApid Mass MovementS). The model, which has been developed by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) in Birmensdorf and the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) takes into account a one-phase approach based on Voellmy rheology (Voellmy, 1955; Salm et al., 1990). The input file combines the total volume of the debris flow located in a release area with a mean depth. The model predicts the affected area, the maximum depth and the flow velocity in each cell of the input DTM. Relatively to hazard analysis related to watersheds characterization, the database collected by the Alto Adige Province represents an opportunity to examine debris-flow sediment dynamics at the regional scale and analyze lithologic controls. With the aim of advancing current understandings about debris flow, this study focuses on 82 events in order to characterize the topographic conditions associated with their initiation , transportation and deposition, seasonal patterns of occurrence and examine the role played by bedrock geology on sediment transfer.

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Simulations of forest stand dynamics in a modelling framework including Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are diameter driven, thus the diameter or basal area increment model needs a special attention. This dissertation critically evaluates diameter or basal area increment models and modelling approaches in the context of the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada. A set of related studies are presented that critically evaluate the sub-model for change in individual tree basal diameter used in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a dominant forestry model in the Great Lakes region. Various historical implementations of the STEMS (Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System) family of diameter increment models, including the current public release of the Lake States variant of FVS (LS-FVS), were tested for the 30 most common tree species using data from the Michigan Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. The results showed that current public release of the LS-FVS diameter increment model over-predicts 10-year diameter increment by 17% on average. Also the study affirms that a simple adjustment factor as a function of a single predictor, dbh (diameter at breast height) used in the past versions, provides an inadequate correction of model prediction bias. In order to re-engineer the basal diameter increment model, the historical, conceptual and philosophical differences among the individual tree increment model families and their modelling approaches were analyzed and discussed. Two underlying conceptual approaches toward diameter or basal area increment modelling have been often used: the potential-modifier (POTMOD) and composite (COMP) approaches, which are exemplified by the STEMS/TWIGS and Prognosis models, respectively. It is argued that both approaches essentially use a similar base function and neither is conceptually different from a biological perspective, even though they look different in their model forms. No matter what modelling approach is used, the base function is the foundation of an increment model. Two base functions – gamma and Box-Lucas – were identified as candidate base functions for forestry applications. The results of a comparative analysis of empirical fits showed that quality of fit is essentially similar, and both are sufficiently detailed and flexible for forestry applications. The choice of either base function in order to model diameter or basal area increment is dependent upon personal preference; however, the gamma base function may be preferred over the Box-Lucas, as it fits the periodic increment data in both a linear and nonlinear composite model form. Finally, the utility of site index as a predictor variable has been criticized, as it has been widely used in models for complex, mixed species forest stands though not well suited for this purpose. An alternative to site index in an increment model was explored, using site index and a combination of climate variables and Forest Ecosystem Classification (FEC) ecosites and data from the Province of Ontario, Canada. The results showed that a combination of climate and FEC ecosites variables can replace site index in the diameter increment model.

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Contemporary citizenship studies have been more concerned with the theory and philosophy of citizenship than with empirical studies. The general objective of this contribution is to broaden the understanding of how notions of citizenship are constructed and re-valued in the social world. The study draws on a qualitative analysis of political elite discourse on Romani issues in the Finnish Parliament from 1989-2003. How issues concerning the Roma are debated elucidates the dilemmas of universal rights and duties within the Nordic welfare model, and the possibilities for cultural diversity within this framework. While the Finnish parliamentary debate accentuated tolerance and the acceptance of difference as strengthening factors for Finnish social citizenship, it was not before the new millennium that the political discourse changed to increasingly stress notions of discrimination and structural inequalities in relation to the incapability to provide for a full an inclusive citizenship as regards the Romani minority.

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We consider the descendants of self-adjointly extended Hamiltonians in supersymmetric quantum mechanics on a half-line, on an interval, and on a punctured line or interval. While there is a 4-parameter family of self-adjointly extended Hamiltonians on a punctured line, only a 3-parameter sub-family has supersymmetric descendants that are themselves self-adjoint. We also address the self-adjointness of an operator related to the supercharge, and point out that only a sub-class of its most general self-adjoint extensions is physical. Besides a general characterization of self-adjoint extensions and their supersymmetric descendants, we explicitly consider concrete examples, including a particle in a box with general boundary conditions, with and without an additional point interaction. We also discuss bulk-boundary resonances and their manifestation in the supersymmetric descendant.

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Numerous evolutionary studies have sought to explain the distribution of diversity across the limbs of the tree of life. At the same time, ecological studies have sought to explain differences in diversity and relative abundance within and among ecological communities. Traditionally, these patterns have been considered separately, but models that consider processes operating at the level of individuals, such as neutral biodiversity theory (NBT), can provide a link between them. Here, we compare evolutionary dynamics across a suite of NBT models. We show that NBT can yield phylogenetic tree topologies with imbalance closely resembling empirical observations. In general, metacommunities that exhibit greater disparity in abundance are characterized by more imbalanced phylogenetic trees. However, NBT fails to capture the tempo of diversification as represented by the distribution of branching events through time. We suggest that population-level processes might therefore help explain the asymmetry of phylogenetic trees, but that tree shape might mislead estimates of evolutionary rates unless the diversification process is modeled explicitly.

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A study of the C37 alkenone compositions in suspended particulate matter in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea has shown a correspondence between Uk'37 and sea surface temperature that significantly deviates from the general equation regularly observed in most marine world areas (Müller et al., 1998, doi:10.1016/S0016-7037(98)00097-0). However, the temperatures measured in the core top sediments using the general equation are in agreement with the annual average water column temperatures between 0-40 m depth. These discrepancies suggest that despite the rather constant correlation between UK'37 and seawater temperature throughout the world oceans, specific calibrations should be developed for each new area of application of the C37 alkenones for paleotemperature determination.

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We present sea surface and upper thermocline temperature records (60-100 yr temporal resolution) spanning Marine Isotope Stage 3 (~24-62 kyr BP) from IMAGES Core MD01-2378 (121°47.27'E and 13°04.95'S; 1783 m water depth) located in the outflow area of the Indonesian Throughflow within the Timor Sea. Stable isotopes and Mg/Ca of the near surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white) and the upper thermocline dwelling Pulleniatina obliquiloculata reveal rapid changes in the thermal structure of the upper ocean during Heinrich Events. Thermocline warming and increased delta18Oseawater (P. obliquiloculata record) during Heinrich Events 3, 4, and 5 reflect weakening of the relatively cool and fresh thermocline flow and reduced export of less saline water from the North Pacific and Indonesian Seas to the tropical Indian Ocean. Three main factors influenced Indonesian Throughflow variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3: (1) global slow-down in thermohaline circulation during Heinrich Events triggered by northern hemisphere cooling; (2) increased freshwater export from the Java Sea into the Indonesian Throughflow controlled by rising sea level from ~60 to 47 ka and (3) insolation related changes in Australasian monsoon with associated migration of hydrological fronts between Indian Ocean and Indonesian Throughflow derived water masses at ~46-40 ka.

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Edited by Francesco Accorso, Jacopo Anello Botti, Antoine Leconte, Jacques Cujas, François Duaren & Agostino Caravita.