Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Surface plasmon resonance-coupled photoluminescence and resistive switching behavior of pulsed laser-deposited Ag:SiC nanocermet thin films

In this study, Ag:SiC nanocermets were prepared via rapid thermal annealing (RTA) of pulsed laser-deposited SiC/Ag/SiC trilayers grown on Si substrate. Atomic force microscope images show that silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) are formed after RTA, and the size of NPs increases with increasing Ag deposition time (t Ag). Sharp dip observed in the reflectance spectra confirmed the existence of Ag surface plasmons (SPs). The infrared transmission spectra showed an intense and broad absorption band around 780–800 cm−1 that can be assigned to Si-C stretching vibration mode. Influence of t Ag on the spectral characteristics of SP-enhanced photoluminescence (PL) and electrical properties of silicon carbide (SiC) films has been investigated. The maximum PL enhancement by 5.5 times for Ag:SiC nanocermets is achieved when t Ag ≈ 50 s. This enhancement is due to the strong resonant coupling between SiC and the SP oscillations of the Ag NPs. Presence of Ag NPs in SiC also induces a forming-free resistive switching with switching ratio of 2 × 10−2. The analysis of I–V curves demonstrates that the trap-controlled space-charge-limited conduction with filamentary model is the governing mechanism for the resistive switching in nanocerment thin films.

Properties and thermal behavior of natural deep eutectic solvents

Natural deep eutectic solvents (NADES) have shown to be promising sustainable media for a wide range of applications. Nonetheless, very limited data is available on the properties of these solvents. A more comprehensive body of data on NADES is required for a deeper understanding of these solvents at molecular level, which will undoubtedly foster the development of new applications. NADES based on choline chloride, organic acids, amino acids and sugars were prepared, and their density, thermal behavior, conductivity and polarity were assessed, for different NADES compositions. The NADES studied can be stable up to 170 Â°C, depending on their composition. The thermal characterization revealed that all the NADES are glass formers and some, after water removal, exhibit crystallinity. The morphological characterization of the crystallizable materials was performed using polarized optical microscopy which also provided evidence of homogeneity/phase separation. The conductivity of the NADES was also assessed from 0 to 40 Â°C. The more polar, organic acid-based NADES presented the highest conductivities. The conductivity dependence on temperature was well described by the Vogelâ Fulcherâ Tammann equation for some of the NADES studied.

Study of the electrical behavior of nanostructured Ti–Ag thin films, prepared by glancing angle deposition

Aiming at biosignal acquisition for bioelectrodes application, Ti-Ag thin films were produced by GLAD, in order to tailor their electromechanical properties. The electrical behaviour of the sculptured Ti-Ag thin films was studied with increasing annealing temperatures. The results revealed a good correlation with the set of morphological features displayed. With the increase of the vapour flux angle, a more defined structure was obtained, as well as a more porous morphology, which increased the electrical resistivity of the coatings. An important point consists in the recrystallization of Ti-Ag intermetallic phases due to the temperature increase (between 558 K and 773 K), which resulted in a sharp decrease of the electrical resistivity values.

The effect of high-fat diet on rat’s mood, feeding behavior and response to stress

An association between obesity and depression has been indicated in studies addressing common physical (metabolic) and psychological (anxiety, low self-esteem) outcomes. Of consideration in both obesity and depression are chronic mild stressors to which individuals are exposed to on a daily basis. However, the response to stress is remarkably variable depending on numerous factors, such as the physical health and the mental state at the time of exposure. Here a chronic mild stress (CMS) protocol was used to assess the effect of high-fat diet (HFD)-induced obesity on response to stress in a rat model. In addition to the development of metabolic complications, such as glucose intolerance, diet-induced obesity caused behavioral alterations. Specifically, animals fed on HFD displayed depressive- and anxious-like behaviors that were only present in the normal diet (ND) group upon exposure to CMS. Of notice, these mood impairments were not further aggravated when the HFD animals were exposed to CMS, which suggest a ceiling effect. Moreover, although there was a sudden drop of food consumption in the first 3 weeks of the CMS protocol in both ND and HFD groups, only the CMS-HFD displayed an overall noticeable decrease in total food intake during the 6 weeks of the CMS protocol. Altogether, the study suggests that HFD impacts on the response to CMS, which should be considered when addressing the consequences of obesity in behavior.

Withdrawal, "serosorting" and "strategic positioning": use of risk reduction strategies with casual sex partners in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, 2007

Introduction: 1) Withdrawal before ejaculation, "serosorting" (to choose a partner of same serostatus) and "strategic positioning" (only insertive vs. only receptive role in anal sex according to serostatus) are known to be used by MSM as alternatives to condom use. 2) Despite their questionable levels of effectiveness they are collectively labelled as "risk reduction strategies" (RRS). Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and factors related to RRS in men who report unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with occasional partners in the last 12 months. Methods: 1) In 2007, a module on RRS was included in a repeated national survey conducted among readers of gay newspapers, members of gay organizations and visitors of gay websites (N=2953). 2) Using an anonymous self-completed questionnaire, participants were asked whether, with the aim of avoiding HIV infection, RRS were used with occasional partners. Analysis: 1) Prevalences were calculated in participants who reported UAI with occasional partners in the last 12 months (n=416). 2) A logistic regression was performed, using "at least one RRS" as dependent variable. Number of partners in the last 12 months, HIV-status and usual socio-demographic characteristics were used as independent factors. Result : 1) 70% (292/416) of the participants reporting UAI used at least one RRS when they had unprotected sex with casual partners in the last 12 months (Table 1). 2) Withrawal before ejaculation was the most frequently reported strategy, followed by serosorting and strategic positioning (Table 1). 3) Participants who reported at least one RRS were more likely to be over 30 years and to belong to a gay organisation. HIV-positive and non-tested participants were less likely to report RRS than HIV-negative participants (Table 2). Conclusions: 1) The majority of MSM who reported UAI in the last 12 months tried to reduce risk of HIV transmission by using specific strategies (withdrawal, serosorting, strategic positioning). It is not known, however, to what extent the use of these strategies was systematic. 2) It is necessary to provide MSM with balanced information on these strategies and their respective level of effectiveness. 3) It is important to monitor the use of RRS in HIV behavioural surveillance surveys in MSM.

Sharing competences in strategic alliances: a case study of the Cosan and Shell biofuel venture

In a competitive world, the way a firm establishes its organizational arrangements may determine the enhancement of its core competences and the possibility of reaching new markets. Firms that find their skills to be applicable in just one type of market encounter constraints in expanding their markets, and through alliances may find a competitive form of value capture. Hybrid forms of organization appear primarily as an alternative to capturing value and managing joint assets when the market and hierarchy modes do not present any yields for the firm's competitiveness. As a result, this form may present other challenging issues, such as the allocation of rights and principal-agent problems. The biofuel market has presented a strong pattern of changes over the last 10 years. New intra-firm arrangements have appeared as a path to participate or survive among global competition. Given the need for capital to achieve better results, there has been a consistent movement of mergers and acquisitions in the Biofuel sector, especially since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2011 there were five major groups in Brazil with a grinding capacity of more than 15 million tons per year: Raízen (joint venture formed by Cosan and Shell), Louis Dreyfus, Tereos Petrobras, ETH, and Bunge. Major oil companies have implemented the strategy of diversification as a hedge against the rising cost of oil. Using the alliance of Cosan and Shell in the Brazilian biofuel market as a case study, this paper analyses the governance mode and challenging issues raised by strategic alliances when firms aim to reach new markets through the sharing of core competences with local firms. The article is based on documentary research and interviews with Cosan's Investor Relations staff, and examines the main questions involving hybrid forms through the lens of the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), Agency Theory, Resource Based View (RBV), and dynamic capabilities theoretical approaches. One focal point is knowledge "appropriability" and the specific assets originated by the joint venture. Once the alliance is formed, it is expected that competences will be shared and new capabilities will expand the limits of the firm. In the case studied, Cosan and Shell shared a number of strategic assets related to their competences. Raízen was formed with economizing incentives, as well to continue marshalling internal resources to enhance the company's presence in the world energy sector. Therefore, some challenges might be related to the control and monitoring agents' behavior, considering the two-part organism formed by distinctive organizational culture, tacit knowledge, and long-term incentives. The case study analyzed illustrates the hybrid arrangement as a middle form for organizing the transaction: neither in the market nor in the hierarchy mode, but rather a more flexible commitment agreement with a strategic central authority. The corporate governance devices are also a challenge, since the alignment between the parent companies in the joint ventures is far more complex. These characteristics have led to an organism with bilateral dependence, offering favorable conditions for developing dynamic capabilities. However, these conditions might rely on the partners' long-term interest in the joint venture.

Risk reduction practices in men who have sex with men in Switzerland: serosorting, strategic positioning, and withdrawal before ejaculation.

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of intentional use of the HIV risk reduction practices of serosorting, strategic positioning, and withdrawal before ejaculation during unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with casual partners. A cross-sectional survey pertaining to the Swiss HIV behavioral surveillance system, using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire, was conducted in 2007 in a self-selected sample of men having sex with other men (MSM). Analysis was restricted to participants with UAI with casual partner(s) (N = 410). Logistic regression was used to estimate factors associated with intentional use of serosorting, strategic positioning, and withdrawal before ejaculation. In the previous 12 months, 71% of participants reported having UAI with a casual partner of different or unknown HIV-status. Of these, 47% reported practicing withdrawal, 38% serosorting, and 25% strategic positioning. In the 319 participants with known HIV-status, serosorting was associated with frequent Internet use to find partners (OR = 2.32), STI (OR = 2.07), and HIV testing in the past 12 months (OR = 1.81). Strategic positioning was associated with HIV-status (OR = 0.13) and having UAI with a partner of different or unknown HIV-status (OR = 3.57). Withdrawal was more frequently practiced by HIV-negative participants or participants reporting high numbers of sexual partners (OR = 2.48) and having UAI with a partner of unknown or different serostatus (OR = 2.08). Risk reduction practices are widely used by MSM, each practice having its own specificities. Further research is needed to determine the contextual factors surrounding harm reduction practices, particularly the strategic or opportunistic nature of their use.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

The Georgian adolescent health survey: methodological and strategic issues.

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a national survey on adolescent health and lifestyles in Georgia and to thus set up a database on adolescent. METHODS: A two-stage cluster sample of around 8000-10000 in-school 15-18 years adolescents are being reached through a random selection of classes in Georgia. The sample has been stratified by age, region, type of school and language. A self-administered questionnaire of 87 questions has been developed and translated into the four main languages used in Georgia. RESULTS: Up to June 2004, the researchers have reached 511 classes (9306 pupils). In total, 8039 questionnaires have been considered valid. The main concerns encountered for this survey are linked with acceptance of the survey, cross-cultural issues, political and strategic problems as well as inadequate physical environmental support. CONCLUSION: Despite Georgia's unfavourable economical and political situation, it has been possible to run a national survey on the health of adolescents, according to the usual standards used in the field. This survey should allow for 1) the identification of priorities in the field of health care and health promotion 2) the monitoring of adolescent health in the future.

Transfer Behavior Transfer Among Iowa Community College Students and Post-college Earnings of Iowa Community College Students, May 15, 2007

Iowa State Board of Education issued a five-year strategic plan to meet accountability goals of Iowa Community Colleges through well defined and articulated performance indicators. More specifically, the fifth strategic goal stated that “the community colleges of Iowa [would] recruit, enroll, retain to completion or graduation persons of underrepresented groups in all programs. Data were obtained to examine the transfer behaviors of the 2002 cohort of Iowa community college award recipients and non-award recipients. Three data files containing demographic information, educational records, enrollment data and fiscal year 2002 degree award files were merged to analyze transfer behavior in the state of Iowa.

Prices versus exams as strategic instruments for competing universities

In this paper we investigate the optimal choice of prices and/or exams by universities in the presence of credit constraints. We first compare the optimal behavior of a public, welfare maximizing, monopoly and a private, profit maximizing, monopoly. Then we model competition between a public and a private institution and investigate the new role of exams/prices in this environment. We find that, under certain circumstances, the public university may have an interest to raise tuition fees from minimum levels if it cares for global welfare. This will be the case provided that (i) the private institution has higher quality and uses only prices to select applicants, or (ii) the private institution has lower quality and uses also exams to select students. When this is the case, there are efficiency grounds for raising public prices

Imperfectly informed voters and strategic extremism

We analyze a unidimensional model of two-candidate electoral competition where voters have im- perfect information about the candidates' policy proposals, that is, voters cannot observe the exact policy proposals of the candidates but only which candidate offers the most leftist/rightist platform. We assume that candidates are purely office motivated and that one candidate enjoys a valence advan- tage over the other. We characterize the unique Sequential Equilibrium in very-weakly undominated strategies of the game. In this equilibrium the behavior of the two candidates tends to maximum extremism, due to the voters' lack of information. But it may converge or diverge depending on the size of the advantage. For small values of the advantage candidates converge to the extreme policy most preferred by the median and for large values of the advantage candidates strategies diverge: each candidate specializes in a different extreme policy. These results are robust to the introduction of a proportion of well informed voters. In this case the degree of extremism decreases when the voters become more informed.

Contextuality in SME Ownership – Studies on Owner-managers’ Ownership Behavior

The purpose of this study is to deepen the understanding of the meaning of ownership in the context of small and medium sized businesses. The research on ownership has increased and widened during the last few years. Ownership is treated increasingly as a psychological phenomenon and it has been noticed that it is common for SME ownermanagers to be mentally linked to their firms. Previous research is suggesting that the central role of an owner-manager in an SME is specifying the concept of SMEs, and that ownership is creating a great heterogeneity within SMEs. This study suggests that there is a variation whitin ownership behaviour of small business owners, and the variation is not totally random or irrational, but following the general patterns of business ownership and of doing business on an SME level. This study is a concept analytical in nature and it builds on the theoretical clarification of the concept of ownership. The theoretical consideration concludes with proposing a definition of ownership: Ownership means a subject’s relatively sustaining position of control in regard to an object. The empirical part of this study consists of five articles, out of which one is conceptual and four are empirical in nature. The notion of contextuality of ownership and the notions of SME characteristics form the basic premise of this study and the theoretical basis for the publications. From the owner-managers point of view, ownership relates the owner also to his or her environment and therefore also to the valuations of the owner-managers. This means that all the dimensions are not equally valued, but certain dimensions in his or her ownership are more important. The presented empirical research is supporting the claim that there is a variation whitin ownership behaviour of small business owners. When bringing the definition of ownership onto a personal and psychological level and into the SME context, it was noticed that ownership is not only a closed system phenomenon occurring between the owner and object owned, but it is also elementarily connected to the environment. Ownership - along with the psychological side of it - is a contextual phenomenon where the fundamental factor is the relatively sustaining position of control with regard to an object. As a contribution of the study, this definition is bringing a new point of view to the discussion on SMEs, SME strategic behaviour and family businesses. The study concludes with pointing out directions for future research.