A mathematical framework for new fault detection schemes in nonlinear stochastic continuous-time dynamical systems

n this work, a mathematical unifying framework for designing new fault detection schemes in nonlinear stochastic continuous-time dynamical systems is developed. These schemes are based on a stochastic process, called the residual, which reflects the system behavior and whose changes are to be detected. A quickest detection scheme for the residual is proposed, which is based on the computed likelihood ratios for time-varying statistical changes in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Several expressions are provided, depending on a priori knowledge of the fault, which can be employed in a proposed CUSUM-type approximated scheme. This general setting gathers different existing fault detection schemes within a unifying framework, and allows for the definition of new ones. A comparative simulation example illustrates the behavior of the proposed schemes.

Stochastic game theory: For playing games, not just for doing theory

Recent theoretical advances have dramatically increased the relevance of game theory for predicting human behavior in interactive situations. By relaxing the classical assumptions of perfect rationality and perfect foresight, we obtain much improved explanations of initial decisions, dynamic patterns of learning and adjustment, and equilibrium steady-state distributions.

The SEIQS stochastic epidemic model with external source of infection

This paper deals with a stochastic epidemic model for computer viruses with latent and quarantine periods, and two sources of infection: internal and external. All sojourn times are considered random variables which are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. For this model extinction and hazard times are analyzed, giving results for their Laplace transforms and moments. The transient behavior is considered by studying the number of times that computers are susceptible, exposed, infectious and quarantined during a period of time (0, t] and results for their joint and marginal distributions, moments and cross moments are presented. In order to give light this analysis, some numerical examples are showed.

Comparison between conventional and stochastic pinning control

Theoretical developments on pinning control of complex dynamical networks have mainly focused on the deterministic versions of the model dynamics. However, the dynamical behavior of most real networks is often affected by stochastic noise components. In this paper the pinning control of a stochastic version of the coupled map lattice network with spatiotemporal characteristics is studied. The control of these complex dynamical networks have functional uncertainty which should be considered when calculating stabilizing control signals. Two feedback control methods are considered: the conventional feedback control and modified stochastic feedback control. It is shown that the typically-used conventional control method suffers from the ignorance of model uncertainty leading to a reduction and potentially a collapse in the control efficiency. Numerical verification of the main result is provided for a chaotic coupled map lattice network. © 2011 IEEE.

A non-linear discrete stochastic optimization model for Advanced Access patient appointment scheduling

Access to healthcare is a major problem in which patients are deprived of receiving timely admission to healthcare. Poor access has resulted in significant but avoidable healthcare cost, poor quality of healthcare, and deterioration in the general public health. Advanced Access is a simple and direct approach to appointment scheduling in which the majority of a clinic's appointments slots are kept open in order to provide access for immediate or same day healthcare needs and therefore, alleviate the problem of poor access the healthcare. This research formulates a non-linear discrete stochastic mathematical model of the Advanced Access appointment scheduling policy. The model objective is to maximize the expected profit of the clinic subject to constraints on minimum access to healthcare provided. Patient behavior is characterized with probabilities for no-show, balking, and related patient choices. Structural properties of the model are analyzed to determine whether Advanced Access patient scheduling is feasible. To solve the complex combinatorial optimization problem, a heuristic that combines greedy construction algorithm and neighborhood improvement search was developed. The model and the heuristic were used to evaluate the Advanced Access patient appointment policy compared to existing policies. Trade-off between profit and access to healthcare are established, and parameter analysis of input parameters was performed. The trade-off curve is a characteristic curve and was observed to be concave. This implies that there exists an access level at which at which the clinic can be operated at optimal profit that can be realized. The results also show that, in many scenarios by switching from existing scheduling policy to Advanced Access policy clinics can improve access without any decrease in profit. Further, the success of Advanced Access policy in providing improved access and/or profit depends on the expected value of demand, variation in demand, and the ratio of demand for same day and advanced appointments. The contributions of the dissertation are a model of Advanced Access patient scheduling, a heuristic to solve the model, and the use of the model to understand the scheduling policy trade-offs which healthcare clinic managers must make. ^

THE STOCHASTIC NAVIER STOKES EQUATIONS FOR HEAT CONDUCTING, COMPRESSIBLE FLUIDS

This dissertation is devoted to the equations of motion governing the evolution of a fluid or gas at the macroscopic scale. The classical model is a PDE description known as the Navier-Stokes equations. The behavior of solutions is notoriously complex, leading many in the scientific community to describe fluid mechanics using a statistical language. In the physics literature, this is often done in an ad-hoc manner with limited precision about the sense in which the randomness enters the evolution equation. The stochastic PDE community has begun proposing precise models, where a random perturbation appears explicitly in the evolution equation. Although this has been an active area of study in recent years, the existing literature is almost entirely devoted to incompressible fluids. The purpose of this thesis is to take a step forward in addressing this statistical perspective in the setting of compressible fluids. In particular, we study the well posedness for the corresponding system of Stochastic Navier Stokes equations, satisfied by the density, velocity, and temperature. The evolution of the momentum involves a random forcing which is Brownian in time and colored in space. We allow for multiplicative noise, meaning that spatial correlations may depend locally on the fluid variables. Our main result is a proof of global existence of weak martingale solutions to the Cauchy problem set within a bounded domain, emanating from large initial datum. The proof involves a mix of deterministic and stochastic analysis tools. Fundamentally, the approach is based on weak compactness techniques from the deterministic theory combined with martingale methods. Four layers of approximate stochastic PDE's are built and analyzed. A careful study of the probability laws of our approximating sequences is required. We prove appropriate tightness results and appeal to a recent generalization of the Skorohod theorem. This ultimately allows us to deduce analogues of the weak compactness tools of Lions and Feireisl, appropriately interpreted in the stochastic setting.

Tribes under threat : the collective behavior of firms during the stock market crisis

Due to their unpredictable behavior, stock markets are examples of complex systems. Yet, the dominant analysis of these markets as- sumes simple stochastic variations, eventually tainted by short-lived memory. This paper proposes an alternative strategy, based on a stochastic geometry defining a robust index of the structural dynamics of the markets and based on notions of topology defining a new coef- ficient that identifies the structural changes occurring on the S&P500 set of stocks. The results demonstrate the consistency of the random hypothesis as applied to normal periods but they also show its in- adequacy as to the analysis of periods of turbulence, for which the emergence of collective behavior of sectoral clusters of firms is mea- sured. This behavior is identified as a meta-routine.

Discovery Of A Rare Pterosaur Bone Bed In A Cretaceous Desert With Insights On Ontogeny And Behavior Of Flying Reptiles.

A pterosaur bone bed with at least 47 individuals (wing spans: 0.65-2.35 m) of a new species is reported from southern Brazil from an interdunal lake deposit of a Cretaceous desert, shedding new light on several biological aspects of those flying reptiles. The material represents a new pterosaur, Caiuajara dobruskii gen. et sp. nov., that is the southermost occurrence of the edentulous clade Tapejaridae (Tapejarinae, Pterodactyloidea) recovered so far. Caiuajara dobruskii differs from all other members of this clade in several cranial features, including the presence of a ventral sagittal bony expansion projected inside the nasoantorbital fenestra, which is formed by the premaxillae; and features of the lower jaw, like a marked rounded depression in the occlusal concavity of the dentary. Ontogenetic variation of Caiuajara dobruskii is mainly reflected in the size and inclination of the premaxillary crest, changing from small and inclined (∼ 115°) in juveniles to large and steep (∼ 90°) in adults. No particular ontogenetic features are observed in postcranial elements. The available information suggests that this species was gregarious, living in colonies, and most likely precocial, being able to fly at a very young age, which might have been a general trend for at least derived pterosaurs.

Bile And Liver Metallothionein Behavior In Copper-exposed Fish.

The present study analyzed metallothionein (MT) excretion from liver to bile in Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) exposed to sub-lethal copper concentrations (2mgL(-1)) in a laboratory setting. MTs in liver and bile were quantified by spectrophotometry after thermal incubation and MT metal-binding profiles were characterized by size exclusion high performance liquid chromatography coupled to ICP-MS (SEC-HPLC-ICP-MS). Results show that liver MT is present in approximately 250-fold higher concentrations than bile MT in non-exposed fish. Differences between the MT profiles from the control and exposed group were observed for both matrices, indicating differential metal-binding behavior when comparing liver and bile MT. This is novel data regarding intra-organ MT comparisons, since differences between organs are usually present only with regard to quantification, not metal-binding behavior. Bile MT showed statistically significant differences between the control and exposed group, while the same did not occur with liver MT. This indicates that MTs synthesized in the liver accumulate more slowly than MTs excreted from liver to bile, since the same fish presented significantly higher MT levels in liver when compared to bile. We postulate that bile, although excreted in the intestine and partially reabsorbed by the same returning to the liver, may also release MT-bound metals more rapidly and efficiently, which may indicate an efficient detoxification route. Thus, we propose that the analysis of bile MTs to observe recent metal exposure may be more adequate than the analysis of liver MTs, since organism responses to metals are more quickly observed in bile, although further studies are necessary.

[the Perception Of Behavior Related To Mindfulness And The Brazilian Version Of The Freiburg Mindfulness Inventory].

Mindfulness is a practice and a form of consciousness which has been the basis for innovative interventions in care and health promotion. This study presents mindfulness, describes and discusses the process of cultural adaptation of The Freiburg Mindfulness Inventory (FMI) to Brazilian Portuguese. From the original version of this pioneering instrument for assessing mindfulness two translations and two back-translations were made. These were evaluated by a committee of 14 experts (Buddhists, linguists, health professionals), who helped to create two versions for the first pre-test, based on which suggestions were made by a sample of 41 people of the population through interviews. Considering the difficulties in understanding the concepts that are unfamiliar to the Brazilian culture, a new version was prepared with additional explanations, which underwent a further evaluation of the experts and a second pre-test with 72 people. This process aimed at addressing the limitations and challenges of evaluating mindfulness in a country of western culture through a self-report instrument based on Buddhist psychology. With appropriate levels of clarity and equivalence with the original instrument, the Freiburg Mindfulness Inventory adapted for Brazil is presented.

Beliefs Related To Adherence To Oral Antidiabetic Treatment According To The Theory Of Planned Behavior.

to identify salient behavioral, normative, control and self-efficacy beliefs related to the behavior of adherence to oral antidiabetic agents, using the Theory of Planned Behavior. cross-sectional, exploratory study with 17 diabetic patients in chronic use of oral antidiabetic medication and in outpatient follow-up. Individual interviews were recorded, transcribed and content-analyzed using pre-established categories. behavioral beliefs concerning advantages and disadvantages of adhering to medication emerged, such as the possibility of avoiding complications from diabetes, preventing or delaying the use of insulin, and a perception of side effects. The children of patients and physicians are seen as important social references who influence medication adherence. The factors that facilitate adherence include access to free-of-cost medication and taking medications associated with temporal markers. On the other hand, a complex therapeutic regimen was considered a factor that hinders adherence. Understanding how to use medication and forgetfulness impact the perception of patients regarding their ability to adhere to oral antidiabetic agents. medication adherence is a complex behavior permeated by behavioral, normative, control and self-efficacy beliefs that should be taken into account when assessing determinants of behavior.

Changes In Motor Behavior During Pregnancy In Rats: The Basis For A Possible Animal Model Of Restless Legs Syndrome.

Pregnant women have a 2-3 fold higher probability of developing restless legs syndrome (RLS - sleep-related movement disorders) than general population. This study aims to evaluate the behavior and locomotion of rats during pregnancy in order to verify if part of these animals exhibit some RLS-like features. We used 14 female 80-day-old Wistar rats that weighed between 200 and 250 g. The rats were distributed into control (CTRL) and pregnant (PN) groups. After a baseline evaluation of their behavior and locomotor activity in an open-field environment, the PN group was inducted into pregnancy, and their behavior and locomotor activity were evaluated on days 3, 10 and 19 of pregnancy and in the post-lactation period in parallel with the CTRL group. The serum iron and transferrin levels in the CTRL and PN groups were analyzed in blood collected after euthanasia by decapitation. There were no significant differences in the total ambulation, grooming events, fecal boli or urine pools between the CTRL and PN groups. However, the PN group exhibited fewer rearing events, increased grooming time and reduced immobilization time than the CTRL group (ANOVA, p<0.05). These results suggest that pregnant rats show behavioral and locomotor alterations similar to those observed in animal models of RLS, demonstrating to be a possible animal model of this sleep disorder.

Behavior Of Listeria Monocytogenes In A Multi-species Biofilm With Enterococcus Faecalis And Enterococcus Faecium And Control Through Sanitation Procedures.

The formation of mono-species biofilm (Listeria monocytogenes) and multi-species biofilms (Enterococcus faecium, Enterococcus faecalis, and L. monocytogenes) was evaluated. In addition, the effectiveness of sanitation procedures for the control of the multi-species biofilm also was evaluated. The biofilms were grown on stainless steel coupons at various incubation temperatures (7, 25 and 39°C) and contact times (0, 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8days). In all tests, at 7°C, the microbial counts were below 0.4 log CFU/cm(2) and not characteristic of biofilms. In mono-species biofilm, the counts of L. monocytogenes after 8days of contact were 4.1 and 2.8 log CFU/cm(2) at 25 and 39°C, respectively. In the multi-species biofilms, Enterococcus spp. were present at counts of 8 log CFU/cm(2) at 25 and 39°C after 8days of contact. However, the L. monocytogenes in multi-species biofilms was significantly affected by the presence of Enterococcus spp. and by temperature. At 25°C, the growth of L. monocytogenes biofilms was favored in multi-species cultures, with counts above 6 log CFU/cm(2) after 8days of contact. In contrast, at 39°C, a negative effect was observed for L. monocytogenes biofilm growth in mixed cultures, with a significant reduction in counts over time and values below 0.4 log CFU/cm(2) starting at day 4. Anionic tensioactive cleaning complemented with another procedure (acid cleaning, disinfection or acid cleaning+disinfection) eliminated the multi-species biofilms under all conditions tested (counts of all micro-organisms<0.4 log CFU/cm(2)). Peracetic acid was the most effective disinfectant, eliminating the multi-species biofilms under all tested conditions (counts of the all microorganisms <0.4 log CFU/cm(2)). In contrast, biguanide was the least effective disinfectant, failing to eliminate biofilms under all the test conditions.

Biofilm And Saliva Affect The Biomechanical Behavior Of Dental Implants.

Friction coefficient (FC) was quantified between titanium-titanium (Ti-Ti) and titanium-zirconia (Ti-Zr), materials commonly used as abutment and implants, in the presence of a multispecies biofilm (Bf) or salivary pellicle (Pel). Furthermore, FC was used as a parameter to evaluate the biomechanical behavior of a single implant-supported restoration. Interface between Ti-Ti and Ti-Zr without Pel or Bf was used as control (Ctrl). FC was recorded using tribometer and analyzed by two-way Anova and Tukey test (p<0.05). Data were transposed to a finite element model of a dental implant-supported restoration. Models were obtained varying abutment material (Ti and Zr) and FCs recorded (Bf, Pel, and Ctrl). Maximum and shear stress were calculated for bone and equivalent von Misses for prosthetic components. Data were analyzed using two-way ANOVA (p<0.05) and percentage of contribution for each condition (material and FC) was calculated. FC significant differences were observed between Ti-Ti and Ti-Zr for Ctrl and Bf groups, with lower values for Ti-Zr (p<0.05). Within each material group, Ti-Ti differed between all treatments (p<0.05) and for Ti-Zr, only Pel showed higher values compared with Ctrl and Bf (p<0.05). FC contributed to 89.83% (p<0.05) of the stress in the screw, decreasing the stress when the FC was lower. FC resulted in an increase of 59.78% of maximum stress in cortical bone (p=0.05). It can be concluded that the shift of the FC due to the presence of Pel or Bf is able to jeopardize the biomechanical behavior of a single implant-supported restoration.

Reproductive behavior, development and eye regression in the cave armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus Reis, 1987 (Siluriformes: Loricariidae), breed in laboratory

The troglobitic armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus (Loricariidae, Ancistrinae) is known from four caves in the São Domingos karst area, upper rio Tocantins basin, Central Brazil. These populations differ in general body shape and degree of reduction of eyes and of pigmentation. The small Passa Três population (around 1,000 individuals) presents the most reduced eyes, which are not externally visible in adults. A small group of Passa Três catfish, one male and three females, reproduced spontaneously thrice in laboratory, at the end of summertime in 2000, 2003 and 2004. Herein we describe the reproductive behavior during the 2003 event, as well as the early development of the 2003 and 2004 offsprings, with focus on body growth and ontogenetic regression of eyes. The parental care by the male, which includes defense of the rock shelter where the egg clutch is laid, cleaning and oxygenation of eggs, is typical of many loricariids. On the other hand, the slow development, including delayed eye degeneration, low body growth rates and high estimated longevity (15 years or more) are characteristic of precocial, or K-selected, life cycles. In the absence of comparable data for close epigean relatives (Ancistrus spp.), it is not possible to establish whether these features are an autapomorphic specialization of the troglobitic A. cryptophthalmus or a plesiomorphic trait already present in the epigean ancestor, possibly favoring the adoption of the life in the food-poor cave environment. We briefly discuss the current hypotheses on eye regression in troglobitic vertebrates.