Productivity of nations: a stochastic frontier approach to TFP decomposition

This Paper Tackles the Problem of Aggregate Tfp Measurement Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (Sfa). Data From Penn World Table 6.1 are Used to Estimate a World Production Frontier For a Sample of 75 Countries Over a Long Period (1950-2000) Taking Advantage of the Model Offered By Battese and Coelli (1992). We Also Apply the Decomposition of Tfp Suggested By Bauer (1990) and Kumbhakar (2000) to a Smaller Sample of 36 Countries Over the Period 1970-2000 in Order to Evaluate the Effects of Changes in Efficiency (Technical and Allocative), Scale Effects and Technical Change. This Allows Us to Analyze the Role of Productivity and Its Components in Economic Growth of Developed and Developing Nations in Addition to the Importance of Factor Accumulation. Although not Much Explored in the Study of Economic Growth, Frontier Techniques Seem to Be of Particular Interest For That Purpose Since the Separation of Efficiency Effects and Technical Change Has a Direct Interpretation in Terms of the Catch-Up Debate. The Estimated Technical Efficiency Scores Reveal the Efficiency of Nations in the Production of Non Tradable Goods Since the Gdp Series Used is Ppp-Adjusted. We Also Provide a Second Set of Efficiency Scores Corrected in Order to Reveal Efficiency in the Production of Tradable Goods and Rank Them. When Compared to the Rankings of Productivity Indexes Offered By Non-Frontier Studies of Hall and Jones (1996) and Islam (1995) Our Ranking Shows a Somewhat More Intuitive Order of Countries. Rankings of the Technical Change and Scale Effects Components of Tfp Change are Also Very Intuitive. We Also Show That Productivity is Responsible For Virtually All the Differences of Performance Between Developed and Developing Countries in Terms of Rates of Growth of Income Per Worker. More Important, We Find That Changes in Allocative Efficiency Play a Crucial Role in Explaining Differences in the Productivity of Developed and Developing Nations, Even Larger Than the One Played By the Technology Gap

Latin America: Total factor productivity and its components

This article applies the stochastic-frontier model to examine total factor productivity (tfp) and its components in Latin America between 1960 and 2010. The likelihood-ratio test shows that, for a selection of Latin American countries over the 50 years analysed, the macroeconomic variables of technical inefficiency included in the model generally have a significant effect; and they allow for a better understanding of technical inefficiency throughout the region. The key variables explaining technical inefficiency in the selected countries are public expenditure and the inflation rate; and there is also an inverse relation between technical inefficiency and the extent to which local prices diverge from purchasing power parity.

Improved Upper Limits on the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background from 2009-2010 LIGO and Virgo Data

Gravitational waves from a variety of sources are predicted to superpose to create a stochastic background. This background is expected to contain unique information from throughout the history of the Universe that is unavailable through standard electromagnetic observations, making its study of fundamental importance to understanding the evolution of the Universe. We carry out a search for the stochastic background with the latest data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors. Consistent with predictions from most stochastic gravitational-wave background models, the data display no evidence of a stochastic gravitational-wave signal. Assuming a gravitational-wave spectrum of Omega(GW)(f) = Omega(alpha)(f/f(ref))(alpha), we place 95% confidence level upper limits on the energy density of the background in each of four frequency bands spanning 41.5-1726 Hz. In the frequency band of 41.5-169.25 Hz for a spectral index of alpha = 0, we constrain the energy density of the stochastic background to be Omega(GW)(f) < 5.6 x 10(-6). For the 600-1000 Hz band, Omega(GW)(f) < 0.14(f/900 Hz)(3), a factor of 2.5 lower than the best previously reported upper limits. We find Omega(GW)(f) < 1.8 x 10(-4) using a spectral index of zero for 170-600 Hz and Omega(GW)(f) < 1.0(f/1300 Hz)(3) for 1000-1726 Hz, bands in which no previous direct limits have been placed. The limits in these four bands are the lowest direct measurements to date on the stochastic background. We discuss the implications of these results in light of the recent claim by the BICEP2 experiment of the possible evidence for inflationary gravitational waves.

Stochastic knock detection model for spark ignited engines

This report presents the development of a Stochastic Knock Detection (SKD) method for combustion knock detection in a spark-ignition engine using a model based design approach. Knock Signal Simulator (KSS) was developed as the plant model for the engine. The KSS as the plant model for the engine generates cycle-to-cycle accelerometer knock intensities following a stochastic approach with intensities that are generated using a Monte Carlo method from a lognormal distribution whose parameters have been predetermined from engine tests and dependent upon spark-timing, engine speed and load. The lognormal distribution has been shown to be a good approximation to the distribution of measured knock intensities over a range of engine conditions and spark-timings for multiple engines in previous studies. The SKD method is implemented in Knock Detection Module (KDM) which processes the knock intensities generated by KSS with a stochastic distribution estimation algorithm and outputs estimates of high and low knock intensity levels which characterize knock and reference level respectively. These estimates are then used to determine a knock factor which provides quantitative measure of knock level and can be used as a feedback signal to control engine knock. The knock factor is analyzed and compared with a traditional knock detection method to detect engine knock under various engine operating conditions. To verify the effectiveness of the SKD method, a knock controller was also developed and tested in a model-in-loop (MIL) system. The objective of the knock controller is to allow the engine to operate as close as possible to its border-line spark-timing without significant engine knock. The controller parameters were tuned to minimize the cycle-to-cycle variation in spark timing and the settling time of the controller in responding to step increase in spark advance resulting in the onset of engine knock. The simulation results showed that the combined system can be used adequately to model engine knock and evaluated knock control strategies for a wide range of engine operating conditions.

Explaining Economic Growth: Factor Accumulation, Total Factor Productivity Growth, and Production Efficiency Improvement

This paper examines cross-country patterns of economic growth by estimating a stochastic frontier production function for 80 developed and developing countries and decomposing output change into factor accumulation, total factor productivity growth, and production efficiency improvement. In addition, this paper incorporates the quality of inputs in analyzing output growth, where the productivity of capital depends on its average age, while the productivity of labor depends on its average level of education. Our growth decomposition involves five geographic regions - Africa, East Asian, Latin America, South Asia, and the West. Factor growth, especially capital accumulation, generally proves much more important than either the improved quality of factors or total factor productivity growth in explaining output growth. The quality of capital positively and significantly affects output growth in all groups. The quality of labor, however, only possesses a positive and significant effect on output growth in Africa, East Asia, and the West. Labor quality owns a negative and significant effect in Latin America and South Asia.

Stochastic homogenization of the laser intensity to improve the irradiation uniformity of capsules directly driven by thousands laser beams

Illumination uniformity of a spherical capsule directly driven by laser beams has been assessed numerically. Laser facilities characterized by ND = 12, 20, 24, 32, 48 and 60 directions of irradiation with associated a single laser beam or a bundle of NB laser beams have been considered. The laser beam intensity profile is assumed super-Gaussian and the calculations take into account beam imperfections as power imbalance and pointing errors. The optimum laser intensity profile, which minimizes the root-mean-square deviation of the capsule illumination, depends on the values of the beam imperfections. Assuming that the NB beams are statistically independents is found that they provide a stochastic homogenization of the laser intensity associated to the whole bundle, reducing the errors associated to the whole bundle by the factor  , which in turn improves the illumination uniformity of the capsule. Moreover, it is found that the uniformity of the irradiation is almost the same for all facilities and only depends on the total number of laser beams Ntot = ND × NB.

Sustainability of irrigated farming systems in a Tunisian region: A recursive stochastic programming analysis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of farm irrigation systems in the Cébalat district in northern Tunisia. It addressed the challenging topic of sustainable agriculture through a bio-economic approach linking a biophysical model to an economic optimisation model. A crop growth simulation model (CropSyst) was used to build a database to determine the relationships between agricultural practices, crop yields and environmental effects (salt accumulation in soil and leaching of nitrates) in a context of high climatic variability. The database was then fed into a recursive stochastic model set for a 10-year plan that allowed analysing the effects of cropping patterns on farm income, salt accumulation and nitrate leaching. We assumed that the long-term sustainability of soil productivity might be in conflict with farm profitability in the short-term. Assuming a discount rate of 10% (for the base scenario), the model closely reproduced the current system and allowed to predict the degradation of soil quality due to long-term salt accumulation. The results showed that there was more accumulation of salt in the soil for the base scenario than for the alternative scenario (discount rate of 0%). This result was induced by applying a higher quantity of water per hectare for the alternative as compared to a base scenario. The results also showed that nitrogen leaching is very low for the two discount rates and all climate scenarios. In conclusion, the results show that the difference in farm income between the alternative and base scenarios increases over time to attain 45% after 10 years.

Gene dosage and stochastic effects determine the severity and direction of uniparental ribosomal RNA gene silencing (nucleolar dominance) in Arabidopsis allopolyploids

Nucleolar dominance is an epigenetic phenomenon in which one parental set of ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes is silenced in an interspecific hybrid. In natural Arabidopsis suecica, an allotetraploid (amphidiploid) hybrid of Arabidopsis thaliana and Cardaminopsis arenosa, the A. thaliana rRNA genes are repressed. Interestingly, A. thaliana rRNA gene silencing is variable in synthetic Arabidopsis suecica F1 hybrids. Two generations are needed for A. thaliana rRNA genes to be silenced in all lines, revealing a species-biased direction but stochastic onset to nucleolar dominance. Backcrossing synthetic A. suecica to tetraploid A. thaliana yielded progeny with active A. thaliana rRNA genes and, in some cases, silenced C. arenosa rRNA genes, showing that the direction of dominance can be switched. The hypothesis that naturally dominant rRNA genes have a superior binding affinity for a limiting transcription factor is inconsistent with dominance switching. Inactivation of a species-specific transcription factor is argued against by showing that A. thaliana and C. arenosa rRNA genes can be expressed transiently in the other species. Transfected A. thaliana genes are also active in A. suecica protoplasts in which chromosomal A. thaliana genes are repressed. Collectively, these data suggest that nucleolar dominance is a chromosomal phenomenon that results in coordinate or cooperative silencing of rRNA genes.

Mammary tumor suppression by transforming growth factor beta 1 transgene expression.

In cell culture, type alpha transforming growth factor (TGF-alpha) stimulates epithelial cell growth, whereas TGF-beta 1 overrides this stimulatory effect and is growth inhibitory. Transgenic mice that overexpress TGF-alpha under control of the mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV) promoter/enhancer exhibit mammary ductal hyperplasia and stochastic development of mammary carcinomas, a process that can be accelerated by administration of the chemical carcinogen 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene. MMTV-TGF-beta 1 transgenic mice display mammary ductal hypoplasia and do not develop mammary tumors. We report that in crossbreeding experiments involving the production of mice carrying both the MMTV-TGF-beta 1 and MMTV-TGF-alpha transgenes, there is marked suppression of mammary tumor formation and that MMTV-TGF-beta 1 transgenic mice are resistant to 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene-induced mammary tumor formation. These data demonstrate that overexpression of TGF-beta 1 in vivo can markedly suppress mammary tumor development.

Parallel implementation of stochastic simulation for large scale cellular processes

Experimental and theoretical studies have shown the importance of stochastic processes in genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes. Cellular networks and genetic circuits often involve small numbers of key proteins such as transcriptional factors and signaling proteins. In recent years stochastic models have been used successfully for studying noise in biological pathways, and stochastic modelling of biological systems has become a very important research field in computational biology. One of the challenge problems in this field is the reduction of the huge computing time in stochastic simulations. Based on the system of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade that is activated by epidermal growth factor, this work give a parallel implementation by using OpenMP and parallelism across the simulation. Special attention is paid to the independence of the generated random numbers in parallel computing, that is a key criterion for the success of stochastic simulations. Numerical results indicate that parallel computers can be used as an efficient tool for simulating the dynamics of large-scale genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes

Energy efficiency in the Chinese provinces: a fixed effects stochastic frontier spatial Durbin error panel analysis

Energy efficiency improvement has been a key objective of China’s long-term energy policy. In this paper, we derive single-factor technical energy efficiency (abbreviated as energy efficiency) in China from multi-factor efficiency estimated by means of a translog production function and a stochastic frontier model on the basis of panel data on 29 Chinese provinces over the period 2003–2011. We find that average energy efficiency has been increasing over the research period and that the provinces with the highest energy efficiency are at the east coast and the ones with the lowest in the west, with an intermediate corridor in between. In the analysis of the determinants of energy efficiency by means of a spatial Durbin error model both factors in the own province and in first-order neighboring provinces are considered. Per capita income in the own province has a positive effect. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and population density in the own province and in neighboring provinces have positive effects, whereas the share of state-owned enterprises in Gross Provincial Product in the own province and in neighboring provinces has negative effects. From the analysis it follows that inflow of foreign direct investment and reform of state-owned enterprises are important policy handles.

Pricing derivatives with stochastic volatility

This Ph.D. thesis contains 4 essays in mathematical finance with a focus on pricing Asian option (Chapter 4), pricing futures and futures option (Chapter 5 and Chapter 6) and time dependent volatility in futures option (Chapter 7). In Chapter 4, the applicability of the Albrecher et al.(2005)'s comonotonicity approach was investigated in the context of various benchmark models for equities and com- modities. Instead of classical Levy models as in Albrecher et al.(2005), the focus is the Heston stochastic volatility model, the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model. It is shown that the method delivers rather tight upper bounds for the prices of Asian Options in these models and as a by-product delivers super-hedging strategies which can be easily implemented. In Chapter 5, two types of three-factor models were studied to give the value of com- modities futures contracts, which allow volatility to be stochastic. Both these two models have closed-form solutions for futures contracts price. However, it is shown that Model 2 is better than Model 1 theoretically and also performs very well empiri- cally. Moreover, Model 2 can easily be implemented in practice. In comparison to the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model, it is shown that Model 2 has its unique advantages; hence, it is also a good choice to price the value of commodity futures contracts. Fur- thermore, if these two models are used at the same time, a more accurate price for commodity futures contracts can be obtained in most situations. In Chapter 6, the applicability of the asymptotic approach developed in Fouque et al.(2000b) was investigated for pricing commodity futures options in a Schwartz (1997) multi-factor model, featuring both stochastic convenience yield and stochastic volatility. It is shown that the zero-order term in the expansion coincides with the Schwartz (1997) two-factor term, with averaged volatility, and an explicit expression for the first-order correction term is provided. With empirical data from the natural gas futures market, it is also demonstrated that a significantly better calibration can be achieved by using the correction term as compared to the standard Schwartz (1997) two-factor expression, at virtually no extra effort. In Chapter 7, a new pricing formula is derived for futures options in the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model with time dependent spot volatility. The pricing formula can also be used to find the result of the time dependent spot volatility with futures options prices in the market. Furthermore, the limitations of the method that is used to find the time dependent spot volatility will be explained, and it is also shown how to make sure of its accuracy.

Effects of stochastic hypoxia events on the benthic communities of transitional waters

Hypoxia is one of the most important and faster spreading threats to marine life and its occurrence has significantly increased in the last century. The effects of hypoxia on marine organisms and communities has mostly been studied in light of the intensity of the disturbance but not a lot of attention has been given to its interaction with other stressors and the timing of its appearance. In this thesis I started to explore these topics through laboratory and manipulative field experiments. I studied the interactive effects of thermal stress and hypoxia on a European native bivalve species (Cerastoderma edule; Linnaeus, 1758 ) and a non native one (Ruditapes philippinarum; Adams & Reeve, 1850) through a laboratory experiment performed in the Netherlands. The non native species displayed a greater tolerance to oxygen depletion than the native one. The first field experiment was performed in an Italian brackish coastal lagoon (Pialassa Baiona) and tested the effects of different timing regimes of hypoxia on the benthic community. It emerged that the main factor affecting the community is the duration of the hypoxia. The ability of the communities to recover after repeated hypoxic periods was explored in the second manipulative field experiment. We imposed three different timing regimes of hypoxia on sediment patches in Pialassa Baiona and we monitored the changes of both the benthic and the microbial communities after the disturbances. The preliminary analyses of the data from this last work suggest that the experimental manipulations caused limited detrimental effects on the communities. Overall this thesis work suggests that the duration of hypoxic events, their repetitive nature and the associated thermal stress are key factors in determining their effects on the communities and that management measures should point towards a reduction of the duration of the single hypoxic periods more than their frequency.

Growth Factor Stimulation Improves The Structure And Properties Of Scaffold-free Engineered Auricular Cartilage Constructs.

The reconstruction of the external ear to correct congenital deformities or repair following trauma remains a significant challenge in reconstructive surgery. Previously, we have developed a novel approach to create scaffold-free, tissue engineering elastic cartilage constructs directly from a small population of donor cells. Although the developed constructs appeared to adopt the structural appearance of native auricular cartilage, the constructs displayed limited expression and poor localization of elastin. In the present study, the effect of growth factor supplementation (insulin, IGF-1, or TGF-β1) was investigated to stimulate elastogenesis as well as to improve overall tissue formation. Using rabbit auricular chondrocytes, bioreactor-cultivated constructs supplemented with either insulin or IGF-1 displayed increased deposition of cartilaginous ECM, improved mechanical properties, and thicknesses comparable to native auricular cartilage after 4 weeks of growth. Similarly, growth factor supplementation resulted in increased expression and improved localization of elastin, primarily restricted within the cartilaginous region of the tissue construct. Additional studies were conducted to determine whether scaffold-free engineered auricular cartilage constructs could be developed in the 3D shape of the external ear. Isolated auricular chondrocytes were grown in rapid-prototyped tissue culture molds with additional insulin or IGF-1 supplementation during bioreactor cultivation. Using this approach, the developed tissue constructs were flexible and had a 3D shape in very good agreement to the culture mold (average error <400 µm). While scaffold-free, engineered auricular cartilage constructs can be created with both the appropriate tissue structure and 3D shape of the external ear, future studies will be aimed assessing potential changes in construct shape and properties after subcutaneous implantation.

Macrophage Cell Activation With Acute Apical Abscess Contents Determined By Interleukin-1 Beta And Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha Production.

This clinical study has investigated the antigenic activity of bacterial contents from exudates of acute apical abscesses (AAAs) and their paired root canal contents regarding the stimulation capacity by levels of interleukin (IL)-1 beta and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) throughout the root canal treatment against macrophage cells. Paired samples of infected root canals and exudates of AAAs were collected from 10 subjects. Endodontic contents were sampled before (root canal sample [RCS] 1) and after chemomechanical preparation (RCS2) and after 30 days of intracanal medication with calcium hydroxide + chlorhexidine gel (Ca[OH]2 + CHX gel) (RCS3). Polymerase chain reaction (16S rDNA) was used for detection of the target bacteria, whereas limulus amebocyte lysate was used to measure endotoxin levels. Raw 264.7 macrophages were stimulated with AAA exudates from endodontic contents sampled in different moments of root canal treatment. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to measure the levels of TNF-α and IL-1 beta. Parvimonas micra, Porphyromonas endodontalis, Dialister pneumosintes, and Prevotella nigrescens were the most frequently detected species. Higher levels of endotoxins were found in samples from periapical exudates at RCS1 (P < .005). In fact, samples collected from periapical exudates showed a higher stimulation capacity at RCS1 (P < .05). A positive correlation was found between endotoxins from exudates with IL-1 beta (r = 0.97) and TNF-α (r = 0.88) production (P < .01). The significant reduction of endotoxins and bacterial species achieved by chemomechanical procedures (RCS2) resulted in a lower capacity of root canal contents to stimulate the cells compared with that at RCS1 (P < .05). The use of Ca(OH)2 + CHX gel as an intracanal medication (RCS3) improved the removal of endotoxins and bacteria from infected root canals (P < .05) whose contents induced a lower stimulation capacity against macrophages cells at RCS1, RCS2, and RCS3 (P < .05). AAA exudates showed higher levels of endotoxins and showed a greater capacity of macrophage stimulation than the paired root canal samples. Moreover, the use of intracanal medication improved the removal of bacteria and endotoxins from infected root canals, which may have resulted in the reduction of the inflammatory potential of the root canal content.