The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

Statistical model applied to NetFlow for network intrusion detection

The computers and network services became presence guaranteed in several places. These characteristics resulted in the growth of illicit events and therefore the computers and networks security has become an essential point in any computing environment. Many methodologies were created to identify these events; however, with increasing of users and services on the Internet, many difficulties are found in trying to monitor a large network environment. This paper proposes a methodology for events detection in large-scale networks. The proposal approaches the anomaly detection using the NetFlow protocol, statistical methods and monitoring the environment in a best time for the application. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Production of nursing care in primary health care services

This descriptive and quantitative study aimed to characterize the production of nursing care in primary health care services in a region of the city of Ribeirao Preto, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The study sample comprised care actions delivered by nurses and registered in the HygiaWeb Information System, from 2006 to 2009. Statistical analysis was performed. Results showed that nursing care delivered by nurses accounted for 9.5 to 14.6% of total professional care provided by professionals. Eventual care actions were the most frequent. The concentration of programmatic care was higher for children, women, pregnant and postpartum women. In conclusion, the predominance of eventual care demonstrated that the health system has been focused on acute conditions. Little of nursing work has been directed at the achievement of comprehensiveness, considering the inexpressive share of longitudinal follow up in total care delivery. The expansion of nursing staff represents potential for care delivery to the population, but further qualification of nursing actions is needed.

Oral health and access to dental care services in relation to the Health Necessities Index. Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2008

The Health Department of Sao Paulo, Brazil, has developed a Health Necessities Index (HNI) to identify priority areas for providing health assistance. In 2008, a survey of the status of oral health was conducted. The objective of this ecological study was to analyze the status of oral health in relation to the HNI. The variables, stratified by the age of 5, 12 and 15 years old were: percentage of individuals with difficulty of access to dental care services; DMFT and DMFS; prevalence of the need for tooth extraction and treatment of dental caries. Data were analyzed for the 25 Health Technical Supervision Units (HTS). The Statistical Covariance Test was used as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression model. A positive correlation was observed between high scores of the HNI and difficulty of access to services. In the HTS with high scores of HNI a higher incidence of dental caries was observed, a greater need for tooth extractions and low caries-free incidence. In order to improve health conditions of the population it is mandatory to prioritize actions in areas of social deprivation.

Statistical mechanics of polymer models: rigorous results and applications

Monomer-dimer models are amongst the models in statistical mechanics which found application in many areas of science, ranging from biology to social sciences. This model describes a many-body system in which monoatomic and diatomic particles subject to hard-core interactions get deposited on a graph. In our work we provide an extension of this model to higher-order particles. The aim of our work is threefold: first we study the thermodynamic properties of the newly introduced model. We solve analytically some regular cases and find that, differently from the original, our extension admits phase transitions. Then we tackle the inverse problem, both from an analytical and numerical perspective. Finally we propose an application to aggregation phenomena in virtual messaging services.

Identifying characteristics of mentally ill homeless individuals who are successfully linked to health and social services post-incarceration via the jail inreach project

Healthcare for the Homeless—Houston (HHH) received a research grant from The Medallion Foundation, Inc. in March 2006 to pilot The Jail Inreach Project, an intensive “inreach” initiative to assess the impact of providing continuity of mental and primary health care services for homeless individuals who suffer from mental illness and/or substance abuse being released from jail. This pilot project was initiated by HHH, in collaboration with the Harris County Sheriff’s Office and the Mental Health Mental Retardation Authority of Harris County (MHMRA). Those who are flagged as “frequent flyers” and who are diagnosed with a mental illness are referred to the Jail Inreach Project. In order to maximize the effectiveness of the discharge plan, case managers offer the option of meeting the client at the time of release and bring them to the HHH clinic located four blocks from the jail. Participation in both the program and the option for direct release to the care of a case manager are voluntary.^ The purpose of this study is to determine the outcomes of the Jail Inreach Project and addresses the following objectives: (1) to evaluate the characteristics of inmates that chose to be released from jail to the direct care of an HHH case manager versus those who opt for self release and (2) to determine the number and percent of inmates that are linked to services and relationship with type of release (direct versus indirect), (3) to determine if there is a relationship between outcomes and characteristics and (4) to determine what outcomes are a function of release, controlling for characteristics. Statistical analysis, including frequencies, cross tabulations, chi-square and logistical regression, found that those who opt for self release are six times less likely to be successfully linked to services and that gender is the most significant predictor of choosing self release. Men are far more likely to opt for self release than women engaged in this program. These findings help inform policy and program design and development that addresses the difference in service utilization and successful linkage to services post-incarceration. Successful linkage to services, thus continuity of and access to care, further impact the effects of the revolving door phenomenon of mentally ill homeless individuals cycling between the streets, jails and hospital emergency centers.^

PREPAID MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES: A NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

The purpose of this 1982 national survey of all operational prepaid health plans, or PHPs (including health maintenance organizations), was to provide information on the current coverage of PHP mental health and substance abuse services, benefits and service provision, general and mental health organization characteristics, mental health service costs, and physical and mental health service utilization.^ Two survey instruments were designed, pretested and distributed to all operational PHPs throughout the United States. A total of 237 PHPs were surveyed, of which 205 (86.50 percent) completed and returned both questionnaires.^ One result of the rapid growth in the PHP field over the past ten years has been the expansion in both the number of PHPs as well as the organizational characteristics of these PHPs. However, little attention in the research literature has been given to the application of empirical results to the PHP arrangements. This project has attempted to contribute to current knowledge regarding prepaid mental health services from a national perspective, and explore, on a preliminary descriptive basis, the variety of potential service delivery arrangements for physical and mental health services (total services) and for mental health services.^ The study emphasized that PHPs must continue to monitor the costs and utilization of mental health services, particularly in light of the apparent elimination of data collection and statistical summary responsibilities within the federal government regarding PHP activities as well as the proposed legislation to eliminate mandated mental health and substance abuse services from basic health plan benefits for federally qualified PHPs. ^