Geographic Resources Decision Support System – an Open Source GIS

Fully structured and matured open source spatial and temporal analysis technology seems to be the official carrier of the future for planning of the natural resources especially in the developing nations. This technology has gained enormous momentum because of technical superiority, affordability and ability to join expertise from all sections of the society. Sustainable development of a region depends on the integrated planning approaches adopted in decision making which requires timely and accurate spatial data. With the increased developmental programmes, the need for appropriate decision support system has increased in order to analyse and visualise the decisions associated with spatial and temporal aspects of natural resources. In this regard Geographic Information System (GIS) along with remote sensing data support the applications that involve spatial and temporal analysis on digital thematic maps and the remotely sensed images. Open source GIS would help in wide scale applications involving decisions at various hierarchical levels (for example from village panchayat to planning commission) on economic viability, social acceptance apart from technical feasibility. GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System, http://wgbis.ces.iisc.ernet.in/grass) is an open source GIS that works on Linux platform (freeware), but most of the applications are in command line argument, necessitating a user friendly and cost effective graphical user interface (GUI). Keeping these aspects in mind, Geographic Resources Decision Support System (GRDSS) has been developed with functionality such as raster, topological vector, image processing, statistical analysis, geographical analysis, graphics production, etc. This operates through a GUI developed in Tcltk (Tool command language / Tool kit) under Linux as well as with a shell in X-Windows. GRDSS include options such as Import /Export of different data formats, Display, Digital Image processing, Map editing, Raster Analysis, Vector Analysis, Point Analysis, Spatial Query, which are required for regional planning such as watershed Analysis, Landscape Analysis etc. This is customised to Indian context with an option to extract individual band from the IRS (Indian Remote Sensing Satellites) data, which is in BIL (Band Interleaved by Lines) format. The integration of PostgreSQL (a freeware) in GRDSS aids as an efficient database management system.

Robust approach to dynamic statistical process control

Statistical Process Control (SPC) technique are well established across a wide range of industries. In particular, the plotting of key steady state variables with their statistical limit against time (Shewart charting) is a common approach for monitoring the normality of production. This paper aims with extending Shewart charting techniques to the quality monitoring of variables driven by uncertain dynamic processes, which has particular application in the process industries where it is desirable to monitor process variables on-line as well as final product. The robust approach to dynamic SPC is based on previous work on guaranteed cost filtering for linear systems and is intended to provide a basis for both a wide application of SPC monitoring and also motivate unstructured fault detection.

Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Reinforcement learning for parameter estimation in statistical spoken dialogue systems

Reinforcement techniques have been successfully used to maximise the expected cumulative reward of statistical dialogue systems. Typically, reinforcement learning is used to estimate the parameters of a dialogue policy which selects the system's responses based on the inferred dialogue state. However, the inference of the dialogue state itself depends on a dialogue model which describes the expected behaviour of a user when interacting with the system. Ideally the parameters of this dialogue model should be also optimised to maximise the expected cumulative reward. This article presents two novel reinforcement algorithms for learning the parameters of a dialogue model. First, the Natural Belief Critic algorithm is designed to optimise the model parameters while the policy is kept fixed. This algorithm is suitable, for example, in systems using a handcrafted policy, perhaps prescribed by other design considerations. Second, the Natural Actor and Belief Critic algorithm jointly optimises both the model and the policy parameters. The algorithms are evaluated on a statistical dialogue system modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process in a tourist information domain. The evaluation is performed with a user simulator and with real users. The experiments indicate that model parameters estimated to maximise the expected reward function provide improved performance compared to the baseline handcrafted parameters. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical parametric speech synthesis based on speaker and language factorization

An increasingly common scenario in building speech synthesis and recognition systems is training on inhomogeneous data. This paper proposes a new framework for estimating hidden Markov models on data containing both multiple speakers and multiple languages. The proposed framework, speaker and language factorization, attempts to factorize speaker-/language-specific characteristics in the data and then model them using separate transforms. Language-specific factors in the data are represented by transforms based on cluster mean interpolation with cluster-dependent decision trees. Acoustic variations caused by speaker characteristics are handled by transforms based on constrained maximum-likelihood linear regression. Experimental results on statistical parametric speech synthesis show that the proposed framework enables data from multiple speakers in different languages to be used to: train a synthesis system; synthesize speech in a language using speaker characteristics estimated in a different language; and adapt to a new language. © 2012 IEEE.

Phrase-based statistical language generation using graphical models and active learning

Most previous work on trainable language generation has focused on two paradigms: (a) using a statistical model to rank a set of generated utterances, or (b) using statistics to inform the generation decision process. Both approaches rely on the existence of a handcrafted generator, which limits their scalability to new domains. This paper presents BAGEL, a statistical language generator which uses dynamic Bayesian networks to learn from semantically-aligned data produced by 42 untrained annotators. A human evaluation shows that BAGEL can generate natural and informative utterances from unseen inputs in the information presentation domain. Additionally, generation performance on sparse datasets is improved significantly by using certainty-based active learning, yielding ratings close to the human gold standard with a fraction of the data. © 2010 Association for Computational Linguistics.

POMDP-based statistical spoken dialog systems: A review

Statistical dialog systems (SDSs) are motivated by the need for a data-driven framework that reduces the cost of laboriously handcrafting complex dialog managers and that provides robustness against the errors created by speech recognizers operating in noisy environments. By including an explicit Bayesian model of uncertainty and by optimizing the policy via a reward-driven process, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide such a framework. However, exact model representation and optimization is computationally intractable. Hence, the practical application of POMDP-based systems requires efficient algorithms and carefully constructed approximations. This review article provides an overview of the current state of the art in the development of POMDP-based spoken dialog systems. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Bayesian Learning of Noisy Markov Decision Processes

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the structure of a Markov decision process. Adopting a Bayesian approach to inference, we show how latent variables of the model can be estimated, and how predictions about actions can be made, in a unified framework. A new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is devised for simulation from the posterior distribution. This step includes a parameter expansion step, which is shown to be essential for good convergence properties of the MCMC sampler. As an illustration, the method is applied to learning a human controller.

Temporal Dynamics of Decision-Making during Motion Perception in the Visual Cortex

How does the brain make decisions? Speed and accuracy of perceptual decisions covary with certainty in the input, and correlate with the rate of evidence accumulation in parietal and frontal cortical "decision neurons." A biophysically realistic model of interactions within and between Retina/LGN and cortical areas V1, MT, MST, and LIP, gated by basal ganglia, simulates dynamic properties of decision-making in response to ambiguous visual motion stimuli used by Newsome, Shadlen, and colleagues in their neurophysiological experiments. The model clarifies how brain circuits that solve the aperture problem interact with a recurrent competitive network with self-normalizing choice properties to carry out probablistic decisions in real time. Some scientists claim that perception and decision-making can be described using Bayesian inference or related general statistical ideas, that estimate the optimal interpretation of the stimulus given priors and likelihoods. However, such concepts do not propose the neocortical mechanisms that enable perception, and make decisions. The present model explains behavioral and neurophysiological decision-making data without an appeal to Bayesian concepts and, unlike other existing models of these data, generates perceptual representations and choice dynamics in response to the experimental visual stimuli. Quantitative model simulations include the time course of LIP neuronal dynamics, as well as behavioral accuracy and reaction time properties, during both correct and error trials at different levels of input ambiguity in both fixed duration and reaction time tasks. Model MT/MST interactions compute the global direction of random dot motion stimuli, while model LIP computes the stochastic perceptual decision that leads to a saccadic eye movement.

Experimental measurement of preferences in health care using best-worst scaling (BWS): theoretical and statistical issues.

For optimal solutions in health care, decision makers inevitably must evaluate trade-offs, which call for multi-attribute valuation methods. Researchers have proposed using best-worst scaling (BWS) methods which seek to extract information from respondents by asking them to identify the best and worst items in each choice set. While a companion paper describes the different types of BWS, application and their advantages and downsides, this contribution expounds their relationships with microeconomic theory, which also have implications for statistical inference. This article devotes to the microeconomic foundations of preference measurement, also addressing issues such as scale invariance and scale heterogeneity. Furthermore the paper discusses the basics of preference measurement using rating, ranking and stated choice data in the light of the findings of the preceding section. Moreover the paper gives an introduction to the use of stated choice data and juxtaposes BWS with the microeconomic foundations.

Models and tools for an integrated European environmental management and decision support system, (IEEMDSS)

This work proceeds from the assumption that a European environmental information and communication system (EEICS) is already established. In the context of primary users (land-use planners, conservationists, and environmental researchers) we ask what use may be made of the EEICS for building models and tools which is of use in building decision support systems for the land-use planner. The complex task facing the next generation of environmental and forest modellers is described, and a range of relevant modelling approaches are reviewed. These include visualization and GIS; statistical tabulation and database SQL, MDA and OLAP methods. The major problem of noncomparability of the definitions and measures of forest area and timber volume is introduced and the possibility of a model-based solution is considered. The possibility of using an ambitious and challenging biogeochemical modelling approach to understanding and managing European forests sustainably is discussed. It is emphasised that all modern methodological disciplines must be brought to bear, and a heuristic hybrid modelling approach should be used so as to ensure that the benefits of practical empirical modelling approaches are utilised in addition to the scientifically well-founded and holistic ecosystem and environmental modelling. The data and information system required is likely to end up as a grid-based-framework because of the heavy use of computationally intensive model-based facilities.

In and out of home care decisions: The influence of confirmation bias in developing decision supportive reasoning

The aims of this study were to identify the themes Social Workers regard as important in supporting decisions to remove children from, or return them to, the care of their parents. To further elicit underlying hypotheses that are discernible in interpretation of evidence. A case study, comprising a two-part vignette with a questionnaire, recorded demographic information, child welfare attitudes and risk assessments, using scales derived from standardised instruments, was completed by 202 Social Workers in Northern Ireland. There were two manipulated variables, mother’s attitude to removal and child’s attitude to reunification2 years later. In this paper we use data derived from respondents’ qualitative comments explaining their reasoning for in and out of home care decisions. Some 60.9% of respondent’s chose the parental care option at part one, with 94% choosing to have the child remain in foster care at part two. The manipulated variables were found to have no significant statistical effect. However, three underlying hypotheses were found to underpin decisions; (a)child rescue, (b) kinship defence and (c) a hedged position on calculation of risk subject to further assessment. Reasoning strategies utilised by social workers to support their decision making suggest that they tend to selectively interpret information either positively or negatively to support pre-existing underlying hypotheses. This finding is in keeping with the literature on ‘confirmation bias.’ The research further draws attention to the need to incorporate open questions in quantitative studies, to help guard against surface reading of data, which often does not ‘speak for itself.’

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

A Study of role conflict, role ambiguity, locus of control, job satisfaction and participation in decision making among front-line vocational service workers for mentally retarded adults

This study was an investigation of individual and organizational factors, as perceived by front-line vocational service workers from Adult Rehabilitation Centres (ARC Industries) for mentally retarded adults. The specific variables which were measured included role conflict/role ambiguity (role factors), internal/external locus of control (individual differences), job satisfaction with work and supervision (job attitudes) and participation in deci~ion making (organizational factor). The exploration of these constructs was conducted by means of self-report questionnaires which were completed by sixty-nine out of a total of ninety front-line employees. The surveys were distributed in booklet form to nine distinct rehabilitation facilities from St. Catharines, West Lincoln, Greater Niagara, Port Colborne, WeIland, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Guelph and Brantford. The survey data was evaluated by the statisti.cal Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) which used the Pearson Product Moment Correlation procedure and a compar~son of means test. A comparison of correlation coefficients test was also conducted. This statistical procedure was calculated mathematically. The results obtained from the statistical evaluation confirmed the prediction that self-reported measures of participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision) would be negatively correlated with role conflict and role ambiguity. As well, the speculation that perceived satisfaction (work and supervision) would be positively correlated with participation in decision making was empirically supported. Internal and external locus of control did not contribute to a significant difference in r~sponses to role perceptions (conflict and ambiguity) , satisfaction (work and supervision) or the correlational relationship between participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision). Overall, the findings from this study substantiated the importance of examining employee perceptions in the workplace and the interrelationships among individual and organizational variables. This research was considered a contribution to the general area of occupational stress and to the study of individuals in work organizations.