Diferencias intergrupales en el sistema de metas personales, satisfacción y rendimiento en adolescentes.

Integrar diferentes unidades de análisis para el estudio de la personalidad y considerar estas unidades en su predicción de la satisfacción y el rendimiento en adolescentes. 296 estudiantes de ESO de entre 15 y 18 años. 162 son mujeres y 134 varones. Las aplicaciones de las pruebas se realizan en horario de tutorías dentro del Plan Acción Tutorial (PAT). Se les explica a los alumnos que participan en la investigación sobre 'metas que se proponen realizar en un futuro' y que las pruebas que se administran les pueden ayudar en el futuro para la toma de decisiones. Las aplicaciones de las pruebas se realizan en dos sesiones de evaluación. En la primera, se aplican las pruebas de personalidad y satisfacción. En la segunda se evalúan metas personales. El rendimiento académico se operativiza por la puntuación del adolescente en su curso académico. Todos los alumnos participan voluntariamente en la investigación. Escala de objetivos o metas personales, escala de satisfacción por áreas vitales (ESAV), Inventario de personalidad para adolescentes de Millón (MAPI), estilos básicos de personalidad, escalas de correlatos comportamentales. Para el análisis de los datos, se utilizan programas estadísticos SPSS, SPAD, LISREL VIII y para el cálculo del tamaño del efecto el Statistical Power Computer Analysis. Las técnicas de análisis de datos se centran en Análisis de Correspondencia Múltiple (ACM), análisis de conglomerados K means, Análisis de varianza y diferencias entre coeficientes de correlación. Los resultados indican que los adolescentes que se plantean metas relacionadas con las tareas vitales a desarrollar en un futuro próximo manifiestan mayores niveles de satisfacción. Además, las diferencias en los estilos de personalidad, permiten entender el sistema de metas personales en cuatro grupos de adolescentes. La consideración de los estilos de personalidad y las metas personales permiten entender la adaptación de los adolescentes a su entorno considerando la satisfacción autopercibida y el rendimiento académico.

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies: a case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diVerent approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. Design—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-termeVects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona,Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992–1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were nonlinear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. Main results—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 μg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 μg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant,especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Conclusions—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities

Birding 2.0: Citizen Science and Effective Monitoring in the Web 2.0 World

The amateur birding community has a long and proud tradition of contributing to bird surveys and bird atlases. Coordinated activities such as Breeding Bird Atlases and the Christmas Bird Count are examples of "citizen science" projects. With the advent of technology, Web 2.0 sites such as eBird have been developed to facilitate online sharing of data and thus increase the potential for real-time monitoring. However, as recently articulated in an editorial in this journal and elsewhere, monitoring is best served when based on a priori hypotheses. Harnessing citizen scientists to collect data following a hypothetico-deductive approach carries challenges. Moreover, the use of citizen science in scientific and monitoring studies has raised issues of data accuracy and quality. These issues are compounded when data collection moves into the Web 2.0 world. An examination of the literature from social geography on the concept of "citizen sensors" and volunteered geographic information (VGI) yields thoughtful reflections on the challenges of data quality/data accuracy when applying information from citizen sensors to research and management questions. VGI has been harnessed in a number of contexts, including for environmental and ecological monitoring activities. Here, I argue that conceptualizing a monitoring project as an experiment following the scientific method can further contribute to the use of VGI. I show how principles of experimental design can be applied to monitoring projects to better control for data quality of VGI. This includes suggestions for how citizen sensors can be harnessed to address issues of experimental controls and how to design monitoring projects to increase randomization and replication of sampled data, hence increasing scientific reliability and statistical power.

Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

The significance of "nonsignificance" in randomized controlled studies: a discussion inspired by a double-blinded study on St. John's Wort (Hypericum perforatum L.) for premenstrual symptoms

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of St. John's wort extract (SJW) as a treatment for premenstrual symptoms. Design: The study was a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, with two parallel treatment groups. After a no-treatment baseline cycle, volunteers were randomized to either SJW or placebo for a further two menstrual cycles. Settings/location: A postal trial conducted from The University of Reading, Berkshire, England. Subjects: One hundred and sixty-nine (169) normally menstruating women who experienced recurrent premenstrual symptoms were recruited onto the study. One hundred and twenty-five (125) completed the protocol and were included in the analysis. Interventions: Six hundred milligrams (600) mg of SJW (standardized to contain 1800 mug of hypericin) or placebo (containing lactose and cellulose). Outcome measure: A menstrual diary was used to assess changes in premenstrual symptoms. The anxiety-related subgroup of symptoms of this instrument was used as the primary outcome measure. Results: After averaging the effects of treatment over both treatment cycles it was found that there was a trend for SJW to be superior to placebo. However, this finding was not statistically significant. Conclusion: The possibility that this nonsignificant finding resulted from insufficient statistical power in the study, rather than a lack of efficacy of SJW, is discussed. Following this discussion the recommendation is made that, in future, similar studies should be powered to detect a minimum clinically relevant difference between treatments.

Introduction to the DISRUPT postprandial database: subjects, studies and methodologies

Dysregulation of lipid and glucose metabolism in the postprandial state are recognised as important risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Our objective was to create a comprehensive, standardised database of postprandial studies to provide insights into the physiological factors that influence postprandial lipid and glucose responses. Data were collated from subjects (n = 467) taking part in single and sequential meal postprandial studies conducted by researchers at the University of Reading, to form the DISRUPT (DIetary Studies: Reading Unilever Postprandial Trials) database. Subject attributes including age, gender, genotype, menopausal status, body mass index, blood pressure and a fasting biochemical profile, together with postprandial measurements of triacylglycerol (TAG), non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, insulin and TAG-rich lipoprotein composition are recorded. A particular strength of the studies is the frequency of blood sampling, with on average 10-13 blood samples taken during each postprandial assessment, and the fact that identical test meal protocols were used in a number of studies, allowing pooling of data to increase statistical power. The DISRUPT database is the most comprehensive postprandial metabolism database that exists worldwide and preliminary analysis of the pooled sequential meal postprandial dataset has revealed both confirmatory and novel observations with respect to the impact of gender and age on the postprandial TAG response. Further analysis of the dataset using conventional statistical techniques along with integrated mathematical models and clustering analysis will provide a unique opportunity to greatly expand current knowledge of the aetiology of inter-individual variability in postprandial lipid and glucose responses.

The significance of "nonsignificance" in randomized controlled studies: a discussion inspired by a double-blinded study on St. John's Wort (Hypericum perforatum L.) for premenstrual symptoms

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of St. John's wort extract (SJW) as a treatment for premenstrual symptoms. Design: The study was a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, with two parallel treatment groups. After a no-treatment baseline cycle, volunteers were randomized to either SJW or placebo for a further two menstrual cycles. Settings/location: A postal trial conducted from The University of Reading, Berkshire, England. Subjects: One hundred and sixty-nine (169) normally menstruating women who experienced recurrent premenstrual symptoms were recruited onto the study. One hundred and twenty-five (125) completed the protocol and were included in the analysis. Interventions: Six hundred milligrams (600) mg of SJW (standardized to contain 1800 mug of hypericin) or placebo (containing lactose and cellulose). Outcome measure: A menstrual diary was used to assess changes in premenstrual symptoms. The anxiety-related subgroup of symptoms of this instrument was used as the primary outcome measure. Results: After averaging the effects of treatment over both treatment cycles it was found that there was a trend for SJW to be superior to placebo. However, this finding was not statistically significant. Conclusion: The possibility that this nonsignificant finding resulted from insufficient statistical power in the study, rather than a lack of efficacy of SJW, is discussed. Following this discussion the recommendation is made that, in future, similar studies should be powered to detect a minimum clinically relevant difference between treatments.

Cognitive tests used in chronic adult human randomised controlled trial micronutrient and phytochemical intervention studies

In recent years there has been a rapid growth of interest in exploring the relationship between nutritional therapies and the maintenance of cognitive function in adulthood. Emerging evidence reveals an increasingly complex picture with respect to the benefits of various food constituents on learning, memory and psychomotor function in adults. However, to date, there has been little consensus in human studies on the range of cognitive domains to be tested or the particular tests to be employed. To illustrate the potential difficulties that this poses, we conducted a systematic review of existing human adult randomised controlled trial (RCT) studies that have investigated the effects of 24 d to 36 months of supplementation with flavonoids and micronutrients on cognitive performance. There were thirty-nine studies employing a total of 121 different cognitive tasks that met the criteria for inclusion. Results showed that less than half of these studies reported positive effects of treatment, with some important cognitive domains either under-represented or not explored at all. Although there was some evidence of sensitivity to nutritional supplementation in a number of domains (for example, executive function, spatial working memory), interpretation is currently difficult given the prevailing 'scattergun approach' for selecting cognitive tests. Specifically, the practice means that it is often difficult to distinguish between a boundary condition for a particular nutrient and a lack of task sensitivity. We argue that for significant future progress to be made, researchers need to pay much closer attention to existing human RCT and animal data, as well as to more basic issues surrounding task sensitivity, statistical power and type I error.

Does tool use extend peripersonal space? A review and re-analysis

The fascinating idea that tools become extensions of our body appears in artistic, literary, philosophical, and scientific works alike. In the last fifteen years, this idea has been re-framed into several related hypotheses, one of which states that tool use extends the neural representation of the multisensory space immediately surrounding the hands (variously termed peripersonal space, peri-hand space, peri-cutaneous space, action space, or near space). This and related hypotheses have been tested extensively in the cognitive neurosciences, with evidence from molecular, neurophysiological, neuroimaging, neuropsychological, and behavioural fields. Here, I briefly review the evidence for and against the hypothesis that tool use extends a neural representation of the space surrounding the hand, concentrating on neurophysiological, neuropsychological, and behavioural evidence. I then provide a re-analysis of data from six published and one unpublished experiments using the crossmodal congruency task to test this hypothesis. While the re-analysis broadly confirms the previously-reported finding that tool use does not literally extend peripersonal space, the overall effect-sizes are small and statistical power is low. I conclude by questioning whether the crossmodal congruency task can indeed be used to test the hypothesis that tool use modifies peripersonal space.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Diet, phylogeny, and basal metabolic rate in phyllostomid bats

Aside from the pervasive effects of body mass, much controversy exists as to what factors account for interspecific variation in basal metabolic rates (BMR) of mammals; however, both diet and phylogeny have been strongly implicated. We examined variation in BMR within the New World bat family Phyllostomidae, which shows the largest diversity of food habits among mammalian families, including frugivorous, nectarivorous, insectivorous, carnivorous and blood-eating species. For 27 species, diet was taken from the literature and BMR was either measured on animals captured in Brazil or extracted from the literature. Conventional (nonphylogenetic) analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), with body mass as the covariate, was first used to test the effects of diet on BMR. In this analysis, which assumes that all species evolved simultaneously from a single ancestor (i.e., a star phylogeny), diet exerted a strong effect on mass-in-dependent BMR: nectarivorous bats showed higher mass-independent BMR than other bats feeding on fruits, insects or blood. In phylogenetic ANCOVAs via Monte Carlo computer simulation, which assume that species are part of a branching hierarchical phylogeny, no statistically significant effect of diet on BMR was observed. Hence, results of the nonphylogenetic analysis were misleading because the critical values for testing the effect of diet were underestimated. However, in this sample of bats, diet is perfectly confounded with phylogeny, because the four dietary categories represent four separate subclades, which greatly reduces statistical power to detect a diet (= subclade) effect. But even if diet did appear to exert an influence on BMR in this sample of bats, it would not be logically possible to separate this effect from the possibility that the dietary categories differ for some other reason (i.e., another synapomorphy of one or more of the subclades). Examples such as this highlight the importance of considering phylogenetic relationships when designing new comparative studies, as well as when analyzing existing data sets. We also discuss some possible reasons why BMR may not coadapt with diet. © by Urban & Fischer Verlag.

Gradiente latitudinal de riqueza de espécies e regra de Rapoport: uma meta análise

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Using Prior Information from the Medical Literature in GWAS of Oral Cancer Identifies Novel Susceptibility Variant on Chromosome 4-the AdAPT Method

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) require large sample sizes to obtain adequate statistical power, but it may be possible to increase the power by incorporating complementary data. In this study we investigated the feasibility of automatically retrieving information from the medical literature and leveraging this information in GWAS. Methods: We developed a method that searches through PubMed abstracts for pre-assigned keywords and key concepts, and uses this information to assign prior probabilities of association for each single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with the phenotype of interest - the Adjusting Association Priors with Text (AdAPT) method. Association results from a GWAS can subsequently be ranked in the context of these priors using the Bayes False Discovery Probability (BFDP) framework. We initially tested AdAPT by comparing rankings of known susceptibility alleles in a previous lung cancer GWAS, and subsequently applied it in a two-phase GWAS of oral cancer. Results: Known lung cancer susceptibility SNPs were consistently ranked higher by AdAPT BFDPs than by p-values. In the oral cancer GWAS, we sought to replicate the top five SNPs as ranked by AdAPT BFDPs, of which rs991316, located in the ADH gene region of 4q23, displayed a statistically significant association with oral cancer risk in the replication phase (per-rare-allele log additive p-value [p(trend)] = 2.5 x 10(-3)). The combined OR for having one additional rare allele was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.76-0.90), and this association was independent of previously identified susceptibility SNPs that are associated with overall UADT cancer in this gene region. We also investigated if rs991316 was associated with other cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), but no additional association signal was found. Conclusion: This study highlights the potential utility of systematically incorporating prior knowledge from the medical literature in genome-wide analyses using the AdAPT methodology. AdAPT is available online (url: http://services.gate.ac.uk/lld/gwas/service/config).

Multiplex-Genotypisierung forensisch relevanter SNPs unter Verwendung von Microarrays auf chemisch aktivierten Glasflächen

Die Analyse tandem-repetitiver DNA-Sequenzen hat einen festen Platz als genetisches Typisierungsverfahren in den Breichen der stammesgeschichtlichen Untersuchung, der Verwandtschaftsanalyse und vor allem in der forensischen Spurenkunde, bei der es durch den Einsatz der Multiplex-PCR-Analyse von Short Tandem Repeat-Systemen (STR) zu einem Durchbruch bei der Aufklärung und sicheren Zuordnung von biologischen Tatortspuren kam. Bei der Sequenzierung des humanen Genoms liegt ein besonderes Augenmerk auf den genetisch polymorphen Sequenzvariationen im Genom, den SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms). Zwei ihrer Eigenschaften – das häufige Vorkommen innerhalb des humanen Genoms und ihre vergleichbar geringe Mutationsrate – machen sie zu besonders gut geeigneten Werkzeugen sowohl für die Forensik als auch für die Populationsgenetik.rnZum Ziel des EU-Projekts „SNPforID“, aus welchem die vorliegende Arbeit entstanden ist, wurde die Etablierung neuer Methoden zur validen Typisierung von SNPs in Multiplexverfahren erklärt. Die Berücksichtigung der Sensitivität bei der Untersuchung von Spuren sowie die statistische Aussagekraft in der forensischen Analyse standen dabei im Vordergrund. Hierfür wurden 52 autosomale SNPs ausgewählt und auf ihre maximale Individualisierungsstärke hin untersucht. Die Untersuchungen der ersten 23 selektierten Marker stellen den ersten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit dar. Sie umfassen die Etablierung des Multiplexverfahrens und der SNaPshot™-Typisierungsmethode sowie ihre statistische Auswertung. Die Ergebnisse dieser Untersuchung sind ein Teil der darauf folgenden, in enger Zusammenarbeit der Partnerlaboratorien durchgeführten Studie der 52-SNP-Multiplexmethode. rnEbenfalls im Rahmen des Projekts und als Hauptziel der Dissertation erfolgten Etablierung und Evaluierung des auf der Microarray-Technologie basierenden Verfahrens der Einzelbasenverlängerung auf Glasobjektträgern. Ausgehend von einer begrenzten DNA-Menge wurde hierbei die Möglichkeit der simultanen Hybridisierung einer möglichst hohen Anzahl von SNP-Systemen untersucht. Die Auswahl der hierbei eingesetzten SNP-Marker erfolgte auf der Basis der Vorarbeiten, die für die Etablierung des 52-SNP-Multiplexes erfolgreich durchgeführt worden waren. rnAus einer Vielzahl von Methoden zur Genotypisierung von biallelischen Markern hebt sich das Assay in seiner Parallelität und der Einfachheit des experimentellen Ansatzes durch eine erhebliche Zeit- und Kostenersparnis ab. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde das „array of arrays“-Prinzip eingesetzt, um zur gleichen Zeit unter einheitlichen Versuchsbedingungen zwölf DNA-Proben auf einem Glasobjektträger zu typisieren. Auf der Basis von insgesamt 1419 typisierten Allelen von 33 Markern konnte die Validierung mit einem Typisierungserfolg von 86,75% abgeschlossen werden. Dabei wurden zusätzlich eine Reihe von Randbedingungen in Bezug auf das Sonden- und Primerdesign, die Hybridisierungsbedingungen sowie physikalische Parameter der laserinduzierten Fluoreszenzmessung der Signale ausgetestet und optimiert. rn

A Method for Detecting Population Genetic Structure in Diverse, High Gene-Flow Species

Detecting small amounts of genetic subdivision across geographic space remains a persistent challenge. Often a failure to detect genetic structure is mistaken for evidence of panmixia, when more powerful statistical tests may uncover evidence for subtle geographic differentiation. Such slight subdivision can be demographically and evolutionarily important as well as being critical for management decisions. We introduce here a method, called spatial analysis of shared alleles (SAShA), that detects geographically restricted alleles by comparing the spatial arrangement of allelic co-occurrences with the expectation under panmixia. The approach is allele-based and spatially explicit, eliminating the loss of statistical power that can occur with user-defined populations and statistical averaging within populations. Using simulated data sets generated under a stepping-stone model of gene flow, we show that this method outperforms spatial autocorrelation (SA) and UST under common real-world conditions: at relatively high migration rates when diversity is moderate or high, especially when sampling is poor. We then use this method to show clear differences in the genetic patterns of 2 nearshore Pacific mollusks, Tegula funebralis (5 Chlorostoma funebralis) and Katharina tunicata, whose overall patterns of within-species differentiation are similar according to traditional population genetics analyses. SAShA meaningfully complements UST/FST, SA, and other existing geographic genetic analyses and is especially appropriate for evaluating species with high gene flow and subtle genetic differentiation.