Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity

To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.

Importance of estimating matrix quality for modeling species distribution in complex tropical landscapes: a test with Atlantic forest small mammals

Information to guide decision making is especially urgent in human dominated landscapes in the tropics, where urban and agricultural frontiers are still expanding in an unplanned manner. Nevertheless, most studies that have investigated the influence of landscape structure on species distribution have not considered the heterogeneity of altered habitats of the matrix, which is usually high in human dominated landscapes. Using the distribution of small mammals in forest remnants and in the four main altered habitats in an Atlantic forest landscape, we investigated 1) how explanatory power of models describing species distribution in forest remnants varies between landscape structure variables that do or do not incorporate matrix quality and 2) the importance of spatial scale for analyzing the influence of landscape structure. We used standardized sampling in remnants and altered habitats to generate two indices of habitat quality, corresponding to the abundance and to the occurrence of small mammals. For each remnant, we calculated habitat quantity and connectivity in different spatial scales, considering or not the quality of surrounding habitats. The incorporation of matrix quality increased model explanatory power across all spatial scales for half the species that occurred in the matrix, but only when taking into account the distance between habitat patches (connectivity). These connectivity models were also less affected by spatial scale than habitat quantity models. The few consistent responses to the variation in spatial scales indicate that despite their small size, small mammals perceive landscape features at large spatial scales. Matrix quality index corresponding to species occurrence presented a better or similar performance compared to that of species abundance. Results indicate the importance of the matrix for the dynamics of fragmented landscapes and suggest that relatively simple indices can improve our understanding of species distribution, and could be applied in modeling, monitoring and managing complex tropical landscapes.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

Bird species distribution and conservation in Serra do Cipo, Minas Gerais, Brazil

We studied the distribution of birds along an altitudinal gradient ranging from 800 m to 1,400 m on two slopes of the Serra do Cip6, Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil. Ornithological surveys were conducted over transects covering open (cerrado, campo rupestre) and forested (gallery and Atlantic forest) habitats from 1994 to 2000. We found 273 bird species belonging to 51 families. Twenty-two species were restricted to higher elevations and 84 Species were detected on only one slope, depending on the vegetation type they inhabited. We recorded 104 species occurring on both slopes, while 61 species were considered altitudinal generalists. Six species, including Hyacinth Visorbearer Augastes scutatus and Cip6 Canastero Asthenes luizae were restricted to the highest parts of Serra do Cip6, a fragile habitat important to endemic birds of the Espinhaco Range. In the past 10 years, the Serra do Cip6 region has suffered human impacts on a large scale, and conservation action must be developed to protect the fauna and flora confined to the area.

Species distribution of the Halophilous-psamophilous community along the coast of the Espirito-Santo state

The purpose of the present work was the study of the composition and distribution of the species in halophilous-psamophilous communities, utilizing the square method in 10 beaches of the Espirito Santo coast. The data of presence and cover of each species for the calculation of frequency and dominance, respectively, were obtained from twenty contiguous square of each of five 20 meters samplings, in a total of one hundred squares for each beach. Mariscus pedunculatus, Panicum racemosum, Ipomoea pes-caprae, I. littoralis and Blutaparon portulacoides were the most dominant species in the analyzed beaches.

Species distribution and antifungal susceptibility patterns of Candida spp. bloodstream isolates from a Brazilian tertiary care hospital

In this work, we collect data from surveys of bloodstream Candida isolates performed in Brazil from 1996 to 2004. Besides, we analyzed the species distribution of bloodstream Candida isolates together with potential risk factors for candidemia and the susceptibility profile of these isolates in patients from Hospital das Clinicas in Goiaonia city, Brazil. Blood samples were collected in the admission day and on every 7 days, in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital. Candida isolates were identified by standard protocols that included germ tube formation, chlamydoconidia production on cornmeal agar and sugar fermentation and assimilation tests. Data of patients were recorded and analyzed according to age at the time of diagnosis, gender and presence of potential risk factors. Statistical analysis was used to determine if the time of hospital permanence increased Candida colonization in ICU patients' blood. The antifungal susceptibility testing was performed by broth microdilution method according to document NCCLS/CLSI M27-A2. Among the 345 blood samples cultured, candidemia was recovered in 33 patients, which were isolated 51.5% of Candida non-albicans. Fungemia was associated with long-term hospitalization. Fluconazole, itraconzole, voriconazole and amphotericin B exhibited a potent activity against all isolates of Candida. Voriconazole MICs were much low for all isolates tested. This work confirms data of increase of Candida non-albicans species in bloodstream in ICU and shows that voriconazole in vitro activity was higher than those of itraconazole, fluconazole and amphotericin B.

Species distribution and susceptibility profile of Candida species in a Brazilian public tertiary hospital

Background. Species identification and antifungal susceptibility tests were carried out on 212 Candida isolates obtained from bloodstream infections, urinary tract infections and dialysis-associated peritonitis, from cases attended at a Brazilian public tertiary hospital from January 1998 to January 2005. Findings. Candida albicans represented 33% of the isolates, Candida parapsilosis 31.1%, Candida tropicalis 17.9%,Candida glabrata 11.8%, and others species 6.2%. In blood culture, C. parapsilosis was the most frequently encountered species (48%). The resistance levels to the antifungal azoles were relatively low for the several species, except for C. tropicalis and C. glabrata. Amphotericin B resistance was observed in 1 isolate of C. parapsilosis. Conclusions. The species distribution and antifungal susceptibility herein observed presented several epidemiological features common to other tertiary hospitals in Latin American countries. It also exhibited some peculiarity, such as a very high frequency of C. parapsilosis both in bloodstream infections and dialysis-associated peritonitis. C. albicans also occurred in an important number of case infections, in all evaluated clinical sources. C. glabrata presented a high proportion of resistant isolates. The data emphasize the necessity to carry out the correct species identification accompanied by the susceptibility tests in all tertiary hospitals. © 2010 Bagagli et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Recent and future environmental suitability to dengue fever in Brazil using species distribution model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental suitability of a highly fragmented and heterogeneous landscape for forest bird species in south-eastern Brazil

Assessment of the suitability of anthropogenic landscapes for wildlife species is crucial for setting priorities for biodiversity conservation. This study aimed to analyse the environmental suitability of a highly fragmented region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's 25 recognized biodiversity hotspots, for forest bird species. Eight forest bird species were selected for the analyses, based on point counts (n = 122) conducted in April-September 2006 and January-March 2009. Six additional variables (landscape diversity, distance from forest and streams, aspect, elevation and slope) were modelled in Maxent for (1) actual and (2) simulated land cover, based on the forest expansion required by existing Brazilian forest legislation. Models were evaluated by bootstrap or jackknife methods and their performance was assessed by AUC, omission error, binomial probability or p value. All predictive models were statistically significant, with high AUC values and low omission errors. A small proportion of the actual landscape (24.41 +/- 6.31%) was suitable for forest bird species. The simulated landscapes lead to an increase of c. 30% in total suitable areas. In average, models predicted a small increase (23.69 +/- 6.95%) in the area of suitable native forest for bird species. Being close to forest increased the environmental suitability of landscapes for all bird species; landscape diversity was also a significant factor for some species. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that species distribution modelling (SDM) successfully predicted bird distribution across a heterogeneous landscape at fine spatial resolution, as all models were biologically relevant and statistically significant. The use of landscape variables as predictors contributed significantly to the results, particularly for species distributions over small extents and at fine scales. This is the first study to evaluate the environmental suitability of the remaining Brazilian Atlantic Forest for bird species in an agricultural landscape, and provides important additional data for regional environmental planning.

Species Distribution Modeling for Conservation Purposes

Species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for different conservation purposes. We discuss the importance of fitting spatial scale and using current records and relevant predictors aiming conservation. We choose jaguar (Panthera onca) as a target species and Brazil and Atlantic Forest biome as study areas. We tested two different extents (continent and biome) and resolutions (similar to 4 Km and similar to 1 Km) in Maxent with 186 records and 11 predictors (bioclimatic, elevation, land-use and landscape structure). All models presented satisfactory AUC values (>0.70) and low omission errors (<23%). SDMs were scale-sensitive as the use of reduced extent implied in significant gains to model performance generating more constrained and real predictive distribution maps. Continental-scale models performed poorly in predicting potential current jaguar distribution, but they reached the historic distribution. Specificity increased significantly from coarse to finer-scale models due to the reduction of overprediction. The variability of environmental space (E-space) differed for most of climatic variables between continental and biome-scale and the representation of the E-space by predictors differed significantly (t = 2.42, g.I. = 9, P < 0.05). Refining spatial scale, incorporating landscape variables and improving the quality of biological data are essential for improving model prediction for conservation purposes.

Candida species distribution and antifungal susceptibility testing according to European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing and new vs. old Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute clinical breakpoints: a 6-year prospective candidaemia survey from the fungal infection network of Switzerland

We analyzed the species distribution of Candida blood isolates (CBIs), prospectively collected between 2004 and 2009 within FUNGINOS, and compared their antifungal susceptibility according to clinical breakpoints defined by the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) in 2013, and the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) in 2008 (old CLSI breakpoints) and 2012 (new CLSI breakpoints). CBIs were tested for susceptiblity to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin by microtitre broth dilution (Sensititre® YeastOne™ test panel). Of 1090 CBIs, 675 (61.9%) were C. albicans, 191 (17.5%) C. glabrata, 64 (5.9%) C. tropicalis, 59 (5.4%) C. parapsilosis, 33 (3%) C. dubliniensis, 22 (2%) C. krusei and 46 (4.2%) rare Candida species. Independently of the breakpoints applied, C. albicans was almost uniformly (>98%) susceptible to all three antifungal agents. In contrast, the proportions of fluconazole- and voriconazole-susceptible C. tropicalis and F-susceptible C. parapsilosis were lower according to EUCAST/new CLSI breakpoints than to the old CLSI breakpoints. For caspofungin, non-susceptibility occurred mainly in C. krusei (63.3%) and C. glabrata (9.4%). Nine isolates (five C. tropicalis, three C. albicans and one C. parapsilosis) were cross-resistant to azoles according to EUCAST breakpoints, compared with three isolates (two C. albicans and one C. tropicalis) according to new and two (2 C. albicans) according to old CLSI breakpoints. Four species (C. albicans, C. glabrata, C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis) represented >90% of all CBIs. In vitro resistance to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin was rare among C. albicans, but an increase of non-susceptibile isolates was observed among C. tropicalis/C. parapsilosis for the azoles and C. glabrata/C. krusei for caspofungin according to EUCAST and new CLSI breakpoints compared with old CLSI breakpoints.

Bacteria causing bacteremia in pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia – species distribution and susceptibility patterns

PURPOSE Infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in pediatric cancer patients. The aim of this study was to establish the microbiological spectrum and the susceptibility patterns of bacteremia-causing bacteria in pediatric cancer patients with febrile neutropenia in relation to the use of prophylactic and empirical antibiotics. METHODS We analyzed positive blood cultures of pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia between 2004 and 2011 in Groningen and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) and in Bern (Switzerland), using different antibiotic prophylactic and empirical regimens. RESULTS A total of 156 patients with 202 bacteremias, due to 248 bacteria species, were enrolled. The majority (73%) of bacteremias were caused by Gram-positive bacteria. Gram-negative bacteria, especially Pseudomonas aeruginosa, were observed significantly more often in Bern, where no fluoroquinolone prophylaxis was used. Ciprofloxacin-resistant bacteria were cultured more often from patients who did receive ciprofloxacin prophylaxis, compared to the patients who did not (57 versus 11%, p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS Gram-positive bacteria predominated in this study. We showed that the use of prophylactic antibiotics in pediatric cancer patients was associated with increased resistance rates, which needs further study. The strategy for empiric antimicrobial therapy for febrile neutropenia should be adapted to local antibiotic resistance patterns.