Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Prediction at ungauged sites is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. Regression models relate physiographic and climatic basin characteristics to flood quantiles, which can be estimated from observed data at gauged sites. However, these models assume linear relationships between variables Prediction intervals are estimated by the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Furthermore, the effect of the uncertainties in the explanatory variables on the dependent variable cannot be assessed. This paper presents a methodology to propagate the uncertainties that arise in the process of predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins by a regression model. In addition, Bayesian networks were explored as a feasible tool for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Bayesian networks benefit from taking into account uncertainties thanks to their probabilistic nature. They are able to capture non-linear relationships between variables and they give a probability distribution of discharges as result. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Tagus basin in Spain.

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Avaliação da quantidade e qualidade dos recursos hídricos superficiais da bacia hidrográfica do rio Sapucaí-Mirim (SP) através do simulador computacional Mike Basin

Fundamental a vida e ao desenvolvimento de qualquer sociedade, a água é um bem precioso e limitado que está se esgotando e sendo motivo de preocupação mundial. O desperdício, a distribuição desigual, o aumento do consumo e a degradação da qualidade da água são motivos que a tornaram escassa e trouxeram à tona a importância do planejamento e gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos. Frente a esta situação, este trabalho buscou avaliar a disponibilidade hídrica quantitativa e qualitativa da bacia hidrográfica do rio Sapucaí-Mirim, SP. Através da aplicação do simulador hidrológico MIKE BASIN, foi analisado o desempenho do sistema de recursos hídricos, o conflito existente entre os usos múltiplos e a concentração dos parâmetros OD e DBO nas águas do rio que recebe efluentes domésticos, muitos deles sem nenhum tratamento. Apesar da quantidade de água ser suficiente para atender às demandas, o estudo mostra que a geração de energia elétrica está comprometida e a água está se esgotando qualitativamente, evidenciando a necessidade e urgência de se implantar estações de tratamento de esgoto.

Proceedings /

Vols. for Aug. 1926-Sept. 1930 in 2 pts., pt. 2 being a pamphlet of "news and notes."

Proceedings /

Mode of access: Internet.

An examinaton of how British local authorities are employing strategic planning and management in their economic development function

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Hydroxylamine-O-sulfonic acid as a new reducing agent for the formation of nearly monodisperse gold nanoparticles in water: synthesis, characterisation and bioconjugation

Gold nanoparticles (Au NPs) with diameters ranging between 15 and 150 nm have been synthesised in water. 15 and 30 nm Au NPs were obtained by the Turkevich and Frens method using sodium citrate as both a reducing and stabilising agent at high temperature (Au NPs-citrate), while 60, 90 and 150 nm Au NPs were formed using hydroxylamine-o-sulfonic acid (HOS) as a reducing agent for HAuCl4 at room temperature. This new method using HOS is an extension of the approaches previously reported for producing Au NPs with mean diameters above 40 nm by direct reduction. Functionalised polyethylene glycol-based thiol polymers were used to stabilise the pre-synthesised Au NPs. The nanoparticles obtained were characterised using uv-visible spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering (DLS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Further bioconjugation on 15, 30 and 90 nm PEGylated Au NPs were performed by grafting Bovine Serum Albumin, Transferrin and Apolipoprotein E (ApoE).

Hydrocarbons in water, suspended matter, and bottom sediments of the White Sea

Data are presented on concentration and composition of aliphatic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HC) in water, suspended matter (collected with a Juday net and by a separator), and in bottom sediments of the White Sea. It was found that during the last years the level of aliphatic HC concentrations in waters of the White Sea (aver. 18 µg/l) practically did not change and was comparable with average concentrations in shelf areas of the World Ocean. In water and bottom sediments distribution of HC is determined by discharge of river marginal filters. Here sedimentation of the bulk of anthropogenic HC occurs. That is why a grain-size controlling factor is not active in the zone of the river depocenter (in particular, of the North Dvina River). The same reasons most probably may explain differences in degree of geochemical relationships between contents of TOC and HC in suspended matter and bottom sediments. After passing through marginal filters natural HC are dominant in all migration forms.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Nasopharyngeal Intubation in Robin Sequence: Technique and Management

Objective: To provide a detailed description of the nasopharyngeal intubation (NPI) technique and photographs, which should be helpful for those who may need to perform it for treating the airway obstruction in Robin sequence. Design: To describe and illustrate the NPI technique and the necessary considerations for its application. Setting: Hospital de Reabilitacao de Anomalias Craniofacial of University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Result: The NPI procedure involves the use of a whitish, Portex, number 3.0 or 3.5, silicone tube, introduced 8 cm deep into the infant`s nostril and fixed with Micropore tape. The tube is to be removed at least twice a day for proper hygiene (with running water, detergent, and swabs) and should be changed every 7 days. This procedure is taught to the children`s parents or caretakers by the nurse during hospitalization. Conclusion: The technique is so simple that it can be performed by the parents themselves, allowing continuation of the treatment at home.