Pitfalls in the modeling of forward-looking price setting and investment decisions

The present paper makes progress in explaining the role of capital for inflation and output dynamics. We followWoodford (2003, Ch. 5) in assuming Calvo pricing combined with a convex capital adjustment cost at the firm level. Our main result is that capital accumulation affects inflation dynamics primarily through its impact on the marginal cost. This mechanism is much simpler than the one implied by the analysis in Woodford's text. The reason is that his analysis suffers from a conceptual mistake, as we show. The latter obscures the economic mechanism through which capital affects inflation and output dynamics in the Calvo model, as discussed in Woodford (2004).

Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market

We combine existing balance sheet and stock market data with two new datasets to studywhether, how much, and why bank lending to firms matters for the transmission of monetarypolicy. The first new dataset enables us to quantify the bank dependence of firms precisely,as the ratio of bank debt to total assets. We show that a two standard deviation increase inthe bank dependence of a firm makes its stock price about 25% more responsive to monetarypolicy shocks. We explore the channels through which this effect occurs, and find that thestock prices of bank-dependent firms that borrow from financially weaker banks display astronger sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with the banklending channel, a theory according to which the strength of bank balance sheets mattersfor monetary policy transmission. We construct a new database of hedging activities andshow that the stock prices of bank-dependent firms that hedge against interest rate riskdisplay a lower sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with aninterest rate pass-through channel that operates via the direct transmission of policy ratesto lending rates associated with the widespread use of floating-rates in bank loans and creditline agreements.

Spatial and temporal regulation of " cdc16p " in the fission yeast " Schizosaccharomyces pombe "

Abstract: The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe has proven to be an excellent model system for the study of eukaryotic cell cycle control. S. pombe cells are rod-shaped and grow mainly by elongation at their tips. They divide by the means of a centrallyplaced division septum which provides two daughter cells of equal size. S. pombe cytokinesis begins at mitotic entry, when the division site is defined by formation of the contractile acto-myosin ring (CAR). Formation of the division septum is triggered at the end of mitosis by the spindle pole body (SPB) associated septation initiation network (SIN) proteins. SIN signalling requires activation of the GTPase spg1p, whose nucleotide status is regulated by the bipartite GAP byr4pcdc16p. Removal of cdc16p from the SPB during early mitosis is thought to allow priming of the SIN by association of cdc7p with both SPBs. During anaphase cdc7p is retained on the new SPB, which also recruits the kinase sid1 p and cdc14p, while the old SP8 reassembles the byr4-cdc16p GAP and is presumed not to signal; SPB asymmetry persists throughout anaphase. The trigger for inactivation of SIN signalling at the new SPB is unknown. This study has concentrated upon cdc16p. We have undertaken the analysis of the localisation of cdc16p using time-lapse microscopy. We have observed that the localisation of cdc16p is regulated at different transitions. We have shown that cdc16p is removed from the SPB prior to the onset of spindle formation and that it reappears asymmetrically at the beginning of anaphase B. We have also demonstrated that the resetting of the SIN at the new SPB is linked to completion of CAR contraction and septum formation. We propose the existence of a mechanism that monitors cytokinesis and that couples the activity of the SI N with the presence of the CAR. During the biochemical characterization of cdc16p, We have found that it is an unstable protein and that it is subjected to polyubiquitination by the SCF and proteasomal degradation. Together, these observations help to shed new light upon the mechanisms by which cytokinesis is regulated in S. pombe. Résumé: La levure Schizosaccharomyces pombe est un excellent organisme modèle pour l'étude du cycle cellulaire eucaryote. Les cellules S. pombe ont la forme de bâtonnets et croissent par l'allongement de leurs extrémités. Elles se divisent en formant, en leur milieu une paroi cellulaire, appelé septum, permettant ainsi l'obtention de deux cellules filles de même taille. Chez S. pombe, la cytokinèse commence en début de mitose lorsque le site de division est déterminé par la formation d'un anneau d'acto-myosine. Le septum, lui, est formé uniquement en fin de mitose par la contraction de l'anneau d'actomyosine. Cette contraction est sous le contrôle d'un réseau de signalisation cellulaire appelé le «réseau d'initiation de synthèse du septum » ou « septation initiation network » (SIN), qui se situe sur les pôles du fuseau mitotique. L'activation du SIN dépend d'une GTPase appelé spg1p dont le statut nucléotidique dépend des protéines cdclóp et byr4p qui forment un complexe qui favorise l'hydrolyse du GTP en GDP. En début de mitose, cdc16p ne se situe plus sur les poles du fuseau mitotique. La GTPase spg1p se retrouve donc principalement sous sa forme couplée au GTP, ce quí va permettre son interaction avec la kinase cdc7p. Cette protéine ainsi que deux autres kinases sid2p (avec mob1p) et sid1p (avec cdc14p) permettent la transmission du signal d'initiation de la contraction de l'anneau d'acto-myosine en fin d'anaphase. Pendant l'anaphase, cdc7p, sid1 p et cdc14p localisent sur un des deux pôles du fuseau mitotique. Il en est de même pour cdc1p et by14p et le pôle contenant cdc16p et byr4p est toujours différent de celui ou les régulateurs positifs du SIN se situent. En fin de cytokinèse, cdc16 et byr4p se retrouvent à nouveau sur chaque pôle des deux cellules filles. Dans cette étude, nous nous sommes concentrés sur l'analyse de la localisation de cdc16p pendant la mitose en utilisant une technique de microscopie en temps réel. Nous avons été en mesure de déterminer que le départ de cdc16p du pole s'effectue juste avant la formation du fuseau mitotique. Nous avons aussi découvert que la localisation asymétrique des composants du SIN dépend fortement de l'entrée en anaphase B. Finalement, Nous avons montré que distribution asymétrique des composants du SIN sur les pôles du fuseau mitotique dépendait aussi fortement de !a présence de l'anneau d'acto-myosine. Ceci nous permet donc de proposer l'existence d'un mécanisme cellulaire qui permet de s'assurer que la cytokinèse est achevée avant de diminuer la signalisation du SIN. Par ailleurs, des études biochimiques nous ont permis de montrer que cdc16p est dégradé par le proteosome. Ces travaux ont permis la découverte de nouveaux modes de régulation du SIN.

General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.

Identification, assessment and ordering of concepts for agro-energy planning and possibilities of spatial analysis

ABSTRACT The present study aims to present the main concepts of the sugarcane straw to energy planning. Throughout the study, the subject is contextualized highlighting broader aspects of sustainability, which is considered the main driver towards agro-energy modernization. Concerning sugarcane straw, we first evaluated its availability regarding technical and economic aspects, and then it summarized the straw production chain for energy supply purposes. As a proposal to support agro-energy planning, it is presented some spatial tools that have been barely used in the Brazilian energy planning context so far. Therefore, working on straw to electricity associated with supply chain basis, we developed a conceptual model to spatially assess this bioenergy system. Using the model proposed, it is described the whole supply chain at state level, which accounted the potential of a single mill to explore straw, as well as main costs associated with straw acquisition, investments on the straw recovery routes and electricity transmission. Bearing these concepts in mind, it is fully believed that spatial analysis can bring important information for agro-energy action plans.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Comparison study of two competing models of an all mechanical power transmission system

A comparison between two competing models of an all mechanical power transmission system is studied by using Dymola –software as the simulation tool. This tool is compared with Matlab/ Simulink –software by using functionality, user-friendliness and price as comparison criteria. In this research we assume that the torque is balanceable and transmission ratios are calculated. Using kinematic connection sketches of the two transmission models, simulation models are built into the Dymola simulation environment. Models of transmission systems are modified according to simulation results to achieve a continuous variable transmission ratio. Simulation results are compared between the two transmission systems. The main features of Dymola and MATLAB/ Simulink are compared. Advantages and disadvantages of the two softwares are analyzed and compared.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi-Sector Economy

This paper constructs and estimates a sticky-price, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with heterogenous production sectors. Sectors differ in price stickiness, capital-adjustment costs and production technology, and use output from each other as material and investment inputs following an Input-Output Matrix and Capital Flow Table that represent the U.S. economy. By relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry, this model allows different sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated by Simulated Method of Moments using sectoral and aggregate U.S. time series. Results indicate 1) substantial heterogeneity in price stickiness across sectors, with quantitatively larger differences between services and goods than previously found in micro studies that focus on final goods alone, 2) a strong sensitivity to monetary policy shocks on the part of construction and durable manufacturing, and 3) similar quantitative predictions at the aggregate level by the multi-sector model and a standard model that assumes symmetry across sectors.

Investigation of clusters of giardiasis using GIS and a spatial scan statistic

Affiliation: Pascal Michel : Département de pathologie et microbiologie, Faculté de médecine vétérinaire

Impact on Policy Responses to Food Price Crisis and Rural Food Security in Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka policy responses have direct impacts on rural dwellers. Over 80% of Sri Lanka’s population live in rural areas and 90% of them represent low income dwellers. Their production system may be hampered by fragmented landholding, poor economics of scale, low investment levels resulting from poor financial services as well as inappropriate or limited technology. They are vulnerable to price hikes of basic foods and food security issues due to fragmented landholding and poor financial services. Policy measures to reduce the transmission of higher international prices in domestic markets exist to protect the food security of the vulnerable population. This paper will discuss the food policy and strategies implemented by the government and outside to the above facts this paper also describes the effectiveness of the policies forwarded by the government. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of policy responses to the food price crisis and rural food security in Sri Lanka. Outside of the above facts this study also treats the impact of policies and decisions on the nutritional condition of rural dwellers. Furthermore this study is to analyse the fluctuation of buying power with the price hikes and the relation of above facts with issues like malnutrition. This paper discusses why policy makers should pay greater attention to rural dwellers and describes the multiple pathways through which food price increases have on rural people. It also provides evidence of the impact of this crisis in particular, through hidden hunger, and discusses how current policy responses should adjust and improve to protect the rural dwellers in the short and long term.

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field.

On the design of opportunistic cooperative transmission strategies with partial CSI information

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of channel state information on the design of cooperative transmission protocols. This is motivated by the fact that the performance gain achieved by cooperative diversity comes at the price of the extra bandwidth resource consumption. Several opportunistic relaying strategies are developed to fully utilize the different types of a priori channel information. The information-theoretic measures such as outage probability and diversity-multiplexing tradeoff are developed for the proposed protocols. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the use of such a priori information increases the spectral efficiency of cooperative diversity, especially at low signal-to-noise ratio.

Behavioral and spatial analysis of extraterritorial movements in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

Abstract: Movements away from the natal or home territory are important to many ecological processes, including gene flow, population regulation, and disease epidemiology, yet quantitative data on these behaviors are lacking. Red foxes exhibit 2 periods of extraterritorial movements: when an individual disperses and when males search neighboring territories for extrapair copulations during the breeding season. Using radiotracking data collected at 5-min interfix intervals, we compared movement parameters, including distance moved, speed of movement, and turning angles, of dispersal and reproductive movements to those made during normal territorial movements; the instantaneous separation distances of dispersing and extraterritorial movements to the movements of resident adults; and the frequency of locations of 95%, 60%, and 30% harmonic mean isopleths of adult fox home territories to randomly generated fox movements. Foxes making reproductive movements traveled farther than when undertaking other types of movement, and dispersal movements were straighter. Reproductive and dispersal movements were faster than territorial movements and also differed in intensity of search and thoroughness. Foxes making dispersal movements avoided direct contact with territorial adults and moved through peripheral areas of territories. The converse was true for reproductive movements. Although similar in some basic characteristics, dispersal and reproductive movements are fundamentally different both behaviorally and spatially and are likely to have different ultimate purposes and contrasting effects on spatial processes such as disease transmission

An experiment on spatial competition with endogenous pricing

Hotelling's (1929) principle of minimum differentiation and the alternative prediction that firms will maximally differentiate from their rivals in order to relax price competition have not been explicitly tested so far. We report results from experimental spatial duopolies designed to address this issue. The levels of product differentiation observed are systematically lower than predicted in equilibrium under risk neutrality and compatible with risk aversion. The observed prices are consistent with collusion attempts. Our main findings are robust to variations in three experimental conditions: automated vs. human market sharing rule for ties, individual vs. collective decision making, and even vs. odd number of locations.

Buyer–seller interaction in experimental spatial markets

We report results from experimental spatial markets with endogenous buyer location on a discrete version of Hotelling's linear city. Buyer locations favor more often the hypothesis of transportation cost minimization than that of strategic location aimed at increasing price competition between sellers. However, the latter of the two hypotheses receives systematic support too. Differentiation by seller-subjects is substantially less than the theory would predict for the specific framework used. Our results suggest that location strategies adopted by subjects can be seen as a rational process favoring conservative product design and spatial agglomeration of economic activities.