Correlação do posicionamento por ponto GNSS com a ionosfera e com indices de atividade solar no periodo de 2002 a 2011

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaita in Amaznia State, Porto Ferreira in So Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22 years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2-8 years, possibly related to El Nio events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5 years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4-8 years.

Variability of rainfall and temperature (1912-2008) parameters measured from Santa Maria (29 degrees 41 ' S, 53 degrees 48 ' W) and their connections with ENSO and solar activity

In this work, we analyze the long term variability of rainfall and temperature (1912-2008) of Santa Maria (29 degrees S, 53 degrees W) and its possible connection with natural influences such as solar activity and ENSO. Temperature and rainfall present similar frequencies as revealed by spectral analyses. This analysis shows a large number of short periods between 2-8 years and periods of 11.8-12.3, 19.1-21.0, and 64.3-82.5 years. The cross correlation for rainfall and temperature versus Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have higher cross-power around 2-8 yr. Rainfall and temperature versus sunspot number (Rz) showed higher cross-power around the 11-yr solar cycle period. A high and continuous cross correlation was observed for Rz-22 yr versus rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, the power between 22-yr solar cycle and meteorological parameters was higher than that obtained with the 11-yr solar cycle, suggesting that the effect of Hale cycle on climate may be stronger than the Schwabe cycle effect. These results indicate that the variability of rainfall and temperature is closely related to the variation of the Southern Oscillation Index and solar activity, and that the El Nino Southern Oscillation and solar activity probably play an important role in the climate system over Southern Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere

Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the 'grand' minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m^-2), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing additional experiments forced only by irradiance changes at different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. We find that a reduction in visible irradiance drives changes in the stationary wave pattern of the North Pacific and sea-ice cover. A decrease in UV irradiance leads to smaller surface signals, although its regional effects are not negligible. These results point to a distinct but additive role of UV and visible irradiance in the Earth's climate, and stress the need to account for solar forcing as a source of uncertainty in regional scale projections.

Conceptual Design of a Circulating Fluidized Bed Reactor as a Thermochemical Thermal Energy Storage System for Applications in Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Plants

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Importance of meridional circulation i flux transport dynamo: the possibility of a maunder-like grand minimum

Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo models. We have studied its importance on the period, the amplitude of the solar cycle, and also in producing Maunder-like grand minima in these models. First, we model the periods of the last 23 sunspot cycles by varying the meridional circulation speed. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then we find that most of the cycle amplitudes also get modeled up to some extent when we model the periods. Next, we propose that at the beginning of the Maunder minimum the amplitude of meridional circulation dropped to a low value and then after a few years it increased again. Several independent studies also favor this assumption. With this assumption, a diffusion-dominated dynamo is able to reproduce many important features of the Maunder minimum remarkably well. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then a slower meridional circulation means that the poloidal field gets more time to diffuse during its transport through the convection zone, making the dynamo weaker. This consequence helps to model both the cycle amplitudes and the Maunder-like minima. We, however, fail to reproduce these results if the dynamo is in an advection-dominated regime.

Grad–Shafranov Reconstruction of Magnetic Clouds: Overview and Improvements

The Grad–Shafranov reconstruction is a method of estimating the orientation (invariant axis) and cross section of magnetic flux ropes using the data from a single spacecraft. It can be applied to various magnetic structures such as magnetic clouds (MCs) and flux ropes embedded in the magnetopause and in the solar wind. We develop a number of improvements of this technique and show some examples of the reconstruction procedure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed at 1 AU by the STEREO, Wind, and ACE spacecraft during the minimum following Solar Cycle 23. The analysis is conducted not only for ideal localized ICME events but also for non-trivial cases of magnetic clouds in fast solar wind. The Grad–Shafranov reconstruction gives reasonable results for the sample events, although it possesses certain limitations, which need to be taken into account during the interpretation of the model results.

On the Large-Scale Diffuse Magnetic Field of the Sun

Although the sunspots migrate towards the equator, the large-scale weak diffuse magnetic fields of the Sun migrate poleward with the solar cycle, the polar field reversing at the time of the sunspot maxima. We apply the vector model of Dikpati and Choudhuri (1994, Paper I) to fit these observations. The dynamo layer at the base of the convection zone is taken to be the source of the diffuse field, which is then evolved in the convection zone subject to meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. We find that the longitudinally averaged observational data can be fitted reasonably well both for positive and negative values of the alpha-effect by adjusting the subsurface meridional flow suitably. The model will be extended in a future paper to include the decay of active regions as an extra source of the diffuse field, which may be necessary to explain the probable phase lag between B-tau and B-phi at lower latitudes.

Quenching of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo Models

Guided by the recent observational result that the meridional circulation of the Sun becomes weaker at the time of the sunspot maximum, we have included a parametric quenching of the meridional circulation in solar dynamo models such that the meridional circulation becomes weaker when the magnetic field at the base of the convection zone is stronger. We find that a flux transport solar dynamo tends to become unstable on including this quenching of meridional circulation if the diffusivity in the convection zone is less than about 2x10(11) cm(2) s(-1). The quenching of alpha, however, has a stabilizing effect and it is possible to stabilize a dynamo with low diffusivity with sufficiently strong alpha-quenching. For dynamo models with high diffusivity, the quenching of meridional circulation does not produce a large effect and the dynamo remains stable. We present a solar-like solution from a dynamo model with diffusivity 2.8x10(12) cm(2) s(-1) in which the quenching of meridional circulation makes the meridional circulation vary periodically with solar cycle as observed and does not have any other significant effect on the dynamo.

Can Superflares Occur on Our Sun?

Recent observations of Sun-like stars, similar to our Sun in their surface temperature (5600-6000 K) and slow rotation (rotational period > 10 d), using the Kepler satellite by Maehara et al. (2012, Nature, 485, 478) have revealed the existence of superflares (with energy of 10(33)-10(35) erg). From statistical analyses of these superflares, it was found that superflares with energy of 10(34) erg occur once in 800 yr, and superflares with 10(35) erg occur once in 5000 yr. In this paper, we examine whether superflares with energy of 10(33)-10(35) erg could occur on the present Sun through the use of simple order-of-magnitude estimates based on current ideas related to the mechanisms of the solar dynamo. If magnetic flux is generated by differential rotation at the base of the convection zone, as assumed in typical dynamo models, it is possible that the present Sun would generate a large sunspot with a total magnetic flux of similar to 2 x 10(23) Mx (= G cm(2)) within one solar cycle period, and lead to superflares with an energy of 10(34) erg. To store a total magnetic flux of similar to 10(24) Mx, necessary for generating 10(35) erg superflares, it would take similar to 40 yr. Hot Jupiters have often been argued to be a necessary ingredient for the generation of superflares, but we found that they do not play any essential role in the generation of magnetic flux in the star itself, if we consider only the magnetic interaction between the star and the hot Jupiter. This seems to be consistent with Maehara et al.'s finding of 148 superflare-generating solar-type stars that do not have a hot Jupiter-like companion. Altogether, our simple calculations, combined with Maehara et al.'s analysis of superflares on Sun-like stars, show that there is a possibility that superflares of 10(34) erg would occur once in 800 yr on our present Sun.

A Critical Assessment of the Flux Transport Dynamo

We first discuss how the flux transport dynamo with reasonably high diffusion can explain both the regular and the irregular features of the solar cycle quite well. Then, we critically examine the inadequacies of the model and the challenge posed by some recent observational data about meridional circulation, arriving at a conclusion that this model can still work within the bounds of observational data.

Measurement of the galactic cosmic ray antiproton flux from 0.25 gev to 3.11 gev with the isotope matter antimatter experiment (imax)

The intensities and relative abundances of galactic cosmic ray protons and antiprotons have been measured with the Isotope Matter Antimatter Experiment (IMAX), a balloon-borne magnet spectrometer. The IMAX payload had a successful flight from Lynn Lake, Manitoba, Canada on July 16, 1992. Particles detected by IMAX were identified by mass and charge via the Cherenkov-Rigidity and TOP-Rigidity techniques, with measured rms mass resolution ≤0.2 amu for Z=1 particles.

Cosmic ray antiprotons are of interest because they can be produced by the interactions of high energy protons and heavier nuclei with the interstellar medium as well as by more exotic sources. Previous cosmic ray antiproton experiments have reported an excess of antiprotons over that expected solely from cosmic ray interactions.

Analysis of the flight data has yielded 124405 protons and 3 antiprotons in the energy range 0.19-0.97 GeV at the instrument, 140617 protons and 8 antiprotons in the energy range 0.97-2.58 GeV, and 22524 protons and 5 antiprotons in the energy range 2.58-3.08 GeV. These measurements are a statistical improvement over previous antiproton measurements, and they demonstrate improved separation of antiprotons from the more abundant fluxes of protons, electrons, and other cosmic ray species.

When these results are corrected for instrumental and atmospheric background and losses, the ratios at the top of the atmosphere are p/p=3.21(+3.49, -1.97)x10^(-5) in the energy range 0.25-1.00 GeV, p/p=5.38(+3.48, -2.45) x10^(-5) in the energy range 1.00-2.61 GeV, and p/p=2.05(+1.79, -1.15) x10^(-4) in the energy range 2.61-3.11 GeV. The corresponding antiproton intensities, also corrected to the top of the atmosphere, are 2.3(+2.5, -1.4) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1), 2.1(+1.4, -1.0) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1), and 4.3(+3.7, -2.4) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1) for the same energy ranges.

The IMAX antiproton fluxes and antiproton/proton ratios are compared with recent Standard Leaky Box Model (SLBM) calculations of the cosmic ray antiproton abundance. According to this model, cosmic ray antiprotons are secondary cosmic rays arising solely from the interaction of high energy cosmic rays with the interstellar medium. The effects of solar modulation of protons and antiprotons are also calculated, showing that the antiproton/proton ratio can vary by as much as an order of magnitude over the solar cycle. When solar modulation is taken into account, the IMAX antiproton measurements are found to be consistent with the most recent calculations of the SLBM. No evidence is found in the IMAX data for excess antiprotons arising from the decay of galactic dark matter, which had been suggested as an interpretation of earlier measurements. Furthermore, the consistency of the current results with the SLBM calculations suggests that the mean antiproton lifetime is at least as large as the cosmic ray storage time in the galaxy (~10^7 yr, based on measurements of cosmic ray ^(10)Be). Recent measurements by two other experiments are consistent with this interpretation of the IMAX antiproton results.

Hypoxic and low pH water in the nearshore marine environments of Monterey Bay, California: characterizing a decade of oxygen and pH, and drivers of variability.

A decade-long time series recorded in southern Monterey Bay, California demonstrates that the shallow, near-shore environment (17 m depth) is regularly inundated with pulses of cold, hypoxic and low pH water. During these episodes, oxygen can drop to biologically threatening levels, and pH levels were lower than expected. Weekly water chemistry monitoring revealed that the saturation state of aragonite (the more soluble form of calcium carbonate) was often below saturation and had a moderate positive relationship with pH, however, analytical and human error could be high. Pulses of hypoxia and low pH water with the greatest intensity arise at the onset of the spring upwelling season, and fluctuations are strongly semidurnal (tidal) and diurnal. Arrival of cold, hypoxic water on the inner shelf typically occurs 3 days after the arrival of a strong upwelling event and appears to be driven by upwelling modulated by internal tidal fluctuations. I found no relationship between the timing of low-oxygen events and the diel solar cycle nor with terrestrial nutrient input. These observations are consistent with advection of hypoxic water from the deep, offshore environment where water masses experience a general decline of temperature, oxygen and pH with depth, and inconsistent with biochemical forcing. Comparisons with concurrent temperature and oxygen time series taken ~20 km away at the head of the Monterey Canyon show similar patterns but even more intense hypoxic events due to stronger semidiurnal forcing there. Analysis of the durations of exposure to low oxygen levels establishes a framework for assessing the ecological relevance of these events. Increasing oceanic hypoxia and acidification of both surface and deep waters may increase the number, intensity, duration and spatial extent of future intrusions along the Pacific coast. Evaluation of the resiliency of nearshore ecosystems such as kelp forests, rocky reefs and sandy habitats, will require consideration of these events.

Eastern tropical Pacific corals monitor low latitude climate of the past 400 years

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We have measured coral growth band thickness and skeletal stable isotopic composition through a 371-year transect (AD 1583-1954) from a massive specimen of Pavona clavus from the Galápagos Islands. ... We observe a general cooling trend during 1860-1954, corresponding to the end of the Little Ice Age, an interval characterized by general warming at many mid-latitude sites. Variance at sunspot cycle frequencies in growth rate, stable isotopic, and trace element composition implies a direct or indirect link between the solar cycle and climate modulation in the eastern Pacific.

一种TEC地图构建方法与全球电子总含量的气候学研究

Global positioning system (GPS) can not only provide precise service for navigation and timing, but also be used to investigate the ionospheric variation. From the GPS observations, we can obtain total electron content (TEC), so-called GPS TEC, which is used to characterize the ionospheric structure. This thesis mainly concerns about GPS TEC data processing and ionospheric climatological analysis as follows. Firstly, develop an algorithm for high-resolution global ionospheric TEC mapping. According to current algorithms in global TEC mapping, we propose a practical way to calibrate the original GPS TEC with the existing GIM results. We also finish global/local TEC mapping by model fitting with the processed GPS TEC data; in practice, we apply it into the local TEC mapping in Southeast of China and obtain some initial results. Next, suggest a new method to calculate equivalent ionospheric global electron content (GEC). We calculate such an equivalent GEC with the TEC data along the geographic longitude 120°E. With the climatological analysis, we can see that GEC climatological variation is mainly composed of three factors: solar cycle, annual and semiannual variations. Solar cycle variation is dominant among them, which indicates the most prominent influence; both annual and semiannual variations play a secondary role and are modulated by solar activity. We construct an empirical GEC model driven by solar activity and seasonal factors on the basis of partial correlation analysis. Generally speaking, our researches not only show that GPS is advantageous in now-casting ionospheric TEC as an important observation, but also show that GEC may become a new index to describe the solar influence on the global ionosphere since the great correlation between GEC and solar activity factor indicates the close relationship between the ionosphere and solar activity.