Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of sire and sire breed (Gyr versus Holstein) on establishment of pregnancy and embryonic loss in lactating Holstein cows during summer heat stress

Heat stress has negative effects on pregnancy rates of lactating dairy cattle. There are genetic differences in tolerance to heat stress; Bos taurus indicus (B. t. indicus) cattle and embryos are more thermotolerant than Bos taurus taurus (B. t. taurus). In the present study, the effects of sire and sire breed on conception and embryonic/fetal loss rates of lactating Holstein cows during the Brazilian summer were determined. In Experiment 1, cows (n = 302) were AI after estrus detection or at a fixed-time with semen from one Gyr (B. t. indicus) or one Holstein sire (B. t. taurus). Pregnancy was diagnosed 80 days after AI. In Experiment 2, cows (n = 811) were AI with semen from three Gyr and two Holstein sires. Pregnancy was diagnosed at 30-40 and at 60-80 days after AI. Cows diagnosed pregnant at the first examination but non-pregnant at the second were considered as having lost their embryo or fetus. Data were analyzed by logistic regression. The model considered the effect of sire within breed, sire breed, days postpartum, period of lactation, and AI type (AI after estrus versus fixed-time). There was no effect of the AI type, days postpartum or milk production on conception or embryonic loss rates. The use of Gyr bulls increased pregnancy rate when compared to Holstein bulls [9.1% (60/657) versus 5.0% (23/456), respectively, P = 0.008; data from Experiments 1 and 2 combined]. Additionally, in Experiment 2, cows inseminated using semen from sire #4 (Gyr) had lower embryonic loss (10%) when compared with other B. t. indicus (35.3% and 40%) or B. t. taurus sires (18.2% and 38.5%, P = 0.03). In conclusion, the use of B. t. indicus sires may result in higher conception rates in lactating Holstein cows during summer heat stress. Moreover, sire can affect embryonic loss and selection of bulls according to this criterion may result in higher parturition rates in lactating Holstein cows. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic parameter estimates and principal component analysis on performance and carcass traits of a terminal pig sire line

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Integrated Proteomics Identified Up-regulated Focal Adhesion-mediated Proteins In Human Squamous Cell Carcinoma In An Orthotopic Murine Model.

Understanding the molecular mechanisms of oral carcinogenesis will yield important advances in diagnostics, prognostics, effective treatment, and outcome of oral cancer. Hence, in this study we have investigated the proteomic and peptidomic profiles by combining an orthotopic murine model of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), mass spectrometry-based proteomics and biological network analysis. Our results indicated the up-regulation of proteins involved in actin cytoskeleton organization and cell-cell junction assembly events and their expression was validated in human OSCC tissues. In addition, the functional relevance of talin-1 in OSCC adhesion, migration and invasion was demonstrated. Taken together, this study identified specific processes deregulated in oral cancer and provided novel refined OSCC-targeting molecules.

Electronic And Structural Study Of Pt-modified Au Vicinal Surfaces: A Model System For Pt-au Catalysts.

Two single crystalline surfaces of Au vicinal to the (111) plane were modified with Pt and studied using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS) in ultra-high vacuum environment. The vicinal surfaces studied are Au(332) and Au(887) and different Pt coverage (θPt) were deposited on each surface. From STM images we determine that Pt deposits on both surfaces as nanoislands with heights ranging from 1 ML to 3 ML depending on θPt. On both surfaces the early growth of Pt ad-islands occurs at the lower part of the step edge, with Pt ad-atoms being incorporated into the steps in some cases. XPS results indicate that partial alloying of Pt occurs at the interface at room temperature and at all coverage, as suggested by the negative chemical shift of Pt 4f core line, indicating an upward shift of the d-band center of the alloyed Pt. Also, the existence of a segregated Pt phase especially at higher coverage is detected by XPS. Sample annealing indicates that the temperature rise promotes a further incorporation of Pt atoms into the Au substrate as supported by STM and XPS results. Additionally, the catalytic activity of different PtAu systems reported in the literature for some electrochemical reactions is discussed considering our findings.

The Soluble Guanylyl Cyclase Activator Bay 60-2770 Potently Relaxes The Pulmonary Artery On Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Rabbit Model.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is associated with pulmonary hypertension which is often difficult to manage, and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. In this study, we have used a rabbit model of CDH to evaluate the effects of BAY 60-2770 on the in vitro reactivity of left pulmonary artery. CDH was performed in New Zealand rabbit fetuses (n = 10 per group) and compared to controls. Measurements of body, total and left lung weights (BW, TLW, LLW) were done. Pulmonary artery rings were pre-contracted with phenylephrine (10 μM), after which cumulative concentration-response curves to glyceryl trinitrate (GTN; NO donor), tadalafil (PDE5 inhibitor) and BAY 60-2770 (sGC activator) were obtained as well as the levels of NO (NO3/NO2). LLW, TLW and LBR were decreased in CDH (p < 0.05). In left pulmonary artery, the potency (pEC50) for GTN was markedly lower in CDH (8.25 ± 0.02 versus 9.27 ± 0.03; p < 0.01). In contrast, the potency for BAY 60-2770 was markedly greater in CDH (11.7 ± 0.03 versus 10.5 ± 0.06; p < 0.01). The NO2/NO3 levels were 62 % higher in CDH (p < 0.05). BAY 60-2770 exhibits a greater potency to relax the pulmonary artery in CDH, indicating a potential use for pulmonary hypertension in this disease.

Bay 41-2272, A Soluble Guanylate Cyclase Stimulator, Relaxes Isolated Human Ureter In A Standardized In Vitro Model.

To characterize the relaxation induced by BAY 41-2272 in human ureteral segments. Ureter specimens (n = 17) from multiple organ human deceased donors (mean age 40 ± 3.2 years, male/female ratio 2:1) were used to characterize the relaxing response of BAY 41-2272. Immunohistochemical analysis for endothelial and neuronal nitric oxide synthase, guanylate cyclase stimulator (sGC) and type 5 phosphodiesterase was also performed. The potency values were determined as the negative log of the molar to produce 50% of the maximal relaxation in potassium chloride-precontracted specimens. The unpaired Student t test was used for the comparisons. Immunohistochemistry revealed the presence of endothelial nitric oxide synthase in vessel endothelia and neuronal nitric oxide synthase in urothelium and nerve structures. sGC was expressed in the smooth muscle and urothelium layer, and type 5 phosphodiesterase was present in the smooth muscle only. BAY 41-2272 (0.001-100 μM) relaxed the isolated ureter in a concentration dependent manner, with a potency and maximal relaxation value of 5.82 ± 0.14 and 84% ± 5%, respectively. The addition of nitric oxide synthase and sGC inhibitors reduced the maximal relaxation values by 21% and 45%, respectively. However, the presence of sildenafil (100 nM) significantly potentiated (6.47 ± 0.10, P <.05) this response. Neither glibenclamide or tetraethylammonium nor ureteral urothelium removal influenced the relaxation response by BAY 41-2272. BAY 41-2272 relaxes the human isolated ureter in a concentration-dependent manner, mainly by activating the sGC enzyme in smooth muscle cells rather than in the urothelium, although a cyclic guanosine monophosphate-independent mechanism might have a role. The potassium channels do not seem to be involved.

Atomic Charge Transfer-counter Polarization Effects Determine Infrared Ch Intensities Of Hydrocarbons: A Quantum Theory Of Atoms In Molecules Model.

Atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effects determine most of the infrared fundamental CH intensities of simple hydrocarbons, methane, ethylene, ethane, propyne, cyclopropane and allene. The quantum theory of atoms in molecules/charge-charge flux-dipole flux model predicted the values of 30 CH intensities ranging from 0 to 123 km mol(-1) with a root mean square (rms) error of only 4.2 km mol(-1) without including a specific equilibrium atomic charge term. Sums of the contributions from terms involving charge flux and/or dipole flux averaged 20.3 km mol(-1), about ten times larger than the average charge contribution of 2.0 km mol(-1). The only notable exceptions are the CH stretching and bending intensities of acetylene and two of the propyne vibrations for hydrogens bound to sp hybridized carbon atoms. Calculations were carried out at four quantum levels, MP2/6-311++G(3d,3p), MP2/cc-pVTZ, QCISD/6-311++G(3d,3p) and QCISD/cc-pVTZ. The results calculated at the QCISD level are the most accurate among the four with root mean square errors of 4.7 and 5.0 km mol(-1) for the 6-311++G(3d,3p) and cc-pVTZ basis sets. These values are close to the estimated aggregate experimental error of the hydrocarbon intensities, 4.0 km mol(-1). The atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effect is much larger than the charge effect for the results of all four quantum levels. Charge transfer-counter polarization effects are expected to also be important in vibrations of more polar molecules for which equilibrium charge contributions can be large.

Mesenchymal Stromal Cells From Adipose Tissue Attached To Suture Material Enhance The Closure Of Enterocutaneous Fistulas In A Rat Model.

Surgical treatment for enterocutaneous fistulas (EF) frequently fails. Cell therapy may represent a new approach to treatment. Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) have high proliferative and differentiation capacity. This study aimed to investigate whether MSCs could adhere to suture filament (SF), promoting better EF healing. MSCs, 1 × 10(6), from adipose tissue (ATMSCs) were adhered to a Polyvicryl SF by adding a specific fibrin glue formulation. Adhesion was confirmed by confocal and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A cecal fistula was created in 22 Wistar rats by incising the cecum and suturing the opening to the surgical wound subcutaneously with four separate stitches. The animals were randomly allocated to three groups: control (CG)-five animals, EF performed; injection (IG)-eight animals 1 × 10(6) ATMSCs injected around EF borders; and suture filament (SG): nine animals, sutured with 1 × 10(6) ATMSCs attached to the filaments with fibrin glue. Fistulas were photographed on the operation day and every 3 days until the 21st day and analyzed by two observers using ImageJ Software. Confocal and SEM results demonstrated ATMSCs adhered to SF (ATMSCs-SF). The average reduction size of the fistula area at 21st day was greater for the SG group (90.34%, P < 0.05) than the IG (71.80%) and CG (46.54%) groups. ATMSCs adhered to SF maintain viability and proliferative capacity. EF submitted to ATMSCs-SF procedure showed greater recovery and healing. This approach might be a new and effective tool for EF treatment.

Changes In Motor Behavior During Pregnancy In Rats: The Basis For A Possible Animal Model Of Restless Legs Syndrome.

Pregnant women have a 2-3 fold higher probability of developing restless legs syndrome (RLS - sleep-related movement disorders) than general population. This study aims to evaluate the behavior and locomotion of rats during pregnancy in order to verify if part of these animals exhibit some RLS-like features. We used 14 female 80-day-old Wistar rats that weighed between 200 and 250 g. The rats were distributed into control (CTRL) and pregnant (PN) groups. After a baseline evaluation of their behavior and locomotor activity in an open-field environment, the PN group was inducted into pregnancy, and their behavior and locomotor activity were evaluated on days 3, 10 and 19 of pregnancy and in the post-lactation period in parallel with the CTRL group. The serum iron and transferrin levels in the CTRL and PN groups were analyzed in blood collected after euthanasia by decapitation. There were no significant differences in the total ambulation, grooming events, fecal boli or urine pools between the CTRL and PN groups. However, the PN group exhibited fewer rearing events, increased grooming time and reduced immobilization time than the CTRL group (ANOVA, p<0.05). These results suggest that pregnant rats show behavioral and locomotor alterations similar to those observed in animal models of RLS, demonstrating to be a possible animal model of this sleep disorder.

Urothelial Carcinogen Resistance Driven By Stronger Toll-like Receptor 2 (tlr2) And Uroplakin Iii (up Iii) Defense Mechanisms: A New Model.

The objective of the study was to illustrate the applicability and significance of the novel Lewis urothelial cancer model compared to the classic Fisher 344. Fischer 344 and Lewis females rats, 7 weeks old, were intravesical instilled N-methyl-N-nitrosourea 1.5 mg/kg every other week for a total of four doses. After 15 weeks, animals were sacrificed and bladders analyzed: histopathology (tumor grade and stage), immunohistochemistry (apoptotic and proliferative indices) and blotting (Toll-like receptor 2-TLR2, Uroplakin III-UP III and C-Myc). Control groups received placebo. There were macroscopic neoplastic lesions in 20 % of Lewis strain and 70 % of Fischer 344 strain. Lewis showed hyperplasia in 50 % of animals, normal bladders in 50 %. All Fischer 344 had lesions, 20 % papillary hyperplasia, 30 % dysplasia, 40 % neoplasia and 10 % squamous metaplasia. Proliferative and apoptotic indices were significantly lower in the Lewis strain (p < 0.01). The TLR2 and UP III protein levels were significantly higher in Lewis compared to Fischer 344 strain (70.8 and 46.5 % vs. 49.5 and 16.9 %, respectively). In contrast, C-Myc protein levels were significantly higher in Fischer 344 (22.5 %) compared to Lewis strain (13.7 %). The innovative Lewis carcinogen resistance urothelial model represents a new strategy for translational research. Preservation of TLR2 and UP III defense mechanisms might drive diverse urothelial phenotypes during carcinogenesis in differently susceptible individuals.

Prostatic Angiogenic Responses In Late Life: Antiangiogenic Therapy Influences And Relation With The Glandular Microenvironment In The Transgenic Adenocarcinoma Of Mouse Prostate (tramp) Model.

Aging is considered one of the main predisposing factors for the development of prostate malignancies. Angiogenesis is fundamental for tumor growth and its inhibition represents a promising therapeutic approach in cancer treatment. Thus, we sought to determine angiogenic responses and the effects of antiangiogenic therapy in the mouse prostate during late life, comparing these findings with the prostatic microenvironment in the Transgenic Adenocarcinoma of Mouse Prostate (TRAMP) model. Male mice (52 week-old FVB) were submitted to treatments with SU5416 (6 mg/kg; i.p.) and/or TNP-470 (15 mg/kg; s.c.). Finasteride was administered (20 mg/kg; s.c.), alone or in association to both inhibitors. The dorsolateral prostate was collected for VEGF, HIF-1α, FGF-2 and endostatin immunohistochemical and Western Blotting analyses and for microvessel density (MVD) count. Senescence led to increased MVD and VEGF, HIF-1α and FGF-2 protein levels in the prostatic microenvironment, similarly to what was observed in TRAMP mice prostate. The angiogenic process was impaired in all the treated groups, demonstrating significantly decreased MVD. Antiangiogenic and/or finasteride treatments resulted in decreased VEGF and HIF-1α levels, especially following TNP-470 administration, either alone or associated to SU5416. The combination of these agents resulted in increased endostatin levels, regardless of the presence of finasteride. Prostatic angiogenesis stimulation during senescence favored the development of neoplastic lesions, considering the pro-angiogenic microenvironment as a common aspect also observed during cancer progression in TRAMP mice. The combined antiangiogenic therapy was more efficient, leading to enhanced imbalance towards angiogenic inhibition in the organ. Finally, finasteride administration might secondarily upregulate the expression of pro-angiogenic factors, pointing to the harmful effects of this therapy. Prostate 75: 484-499, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.