912 resultados para Severe Storm Forecasting


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Background: Leishmania braziliensis is the main causative agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil. Protection against infection is related to development of Th1 responses, but the mechanisms that mediate susceptibility are still poorly understood. Murine models have been the most important tools in understanding the immunopathogenesis of L. major infection and have shown that Th2 responses favor parasite survival. In contrast, L. braziliensis-infected mice develop strong Th1 responses and easily resolve the infection, thus making the study of factors affecting susceptibility to this parasite difficult. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we describe an experimental model for the evaluation of the mechanisms mediating susceptibility to L. braziliensis infection. BALB/c mice were inoculated with stationary phase promastigotes of L. braziliensis, isolates LTCP393(R) and LTCP15171(S), which are resistant and susceptible to antimony and nitric oxide (NO), respectively. Mice inoculated with LTCP393(R) presented larger lesions that healed more slowly and contained higher parasite loads than lesions caused by LTCP15171(S). Inflammatory infiltrates in the lesions and production of IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha, IL-10 and TGF-beta were similar in mice inoculated with either isolate, indicating that these factors did not contribute to the different disease manifestations observed. In contrast, IL-4 production was strongly increased in LTCP393(R)-inoculated animals and also arginase I (Arg I) expression. Moreover, anti-IL-4 monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment resulted in decreased lesion thickness and parasite burden in animals inoculated with LTCP393(R), but not in those inoculated with LTCP15171(S). Conclusion/Significance: We conclude that the ability of L. braziliensis isolates to induce Th2 responses affects the susceptibility to infection with these isolates and contributes to the increased virulence and severity of disease associated with them. Since these data reflect what happens in human infection, this model could be useful to study the pathogenesis of the L. braziliensis infection, as well as to design new strategies of therapeutic intervention.

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Introduction: Treatment of severe bacterial peritonitis, especially by videolaparoscopy, is still a matter of investigation. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of videolaparoscopy and laparotomy access with or without antibiotics on the outcome of severe bacterial peritonitis in rats. Materials and Methods: Sixty-four male Wistar rats were equally assigned to 8 groups: Sham surgery (SHAM), SHAM+antibiotics (SHAM+AB), cecal ligation and puncture (CLP), CLP+AB, CLP+videolaparoscopy (VLAP), CLP+laparotomy (LAP), VLAP+AB, and LAP+AB. All treated animals were submitted to an evaluation of bacteremia, white cell counts, and cytokine determinations: interleukin (IL)-1, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha). The groups treated with antibiotics received gentamicin and metronidazole. Survival was monitored over a period of 7 days. Results: Peritonitis induced by CLP was severe, with IL-1, IL-6, and TNF-alpha levels and lethality being significantly higher compared to the SHAM group. The IL-6 levels in the VLAP group were significantly higher compared to the CLP and VLAP+AB groups, and the TNF-alpha levels in the VLAP and LAP+AB groups were significantly higher compared to the LAP group. The survival time was significantly higher in the CLP+AB and VLAP+AB groups, when compared to the CLP group. There was no significant difference in bacteremia and lethality rates between the resources employed for treatment of peritonitis. Conclusions: Although the use of laparoscopic access itself exacerbates the inflammatory response, the combination with antibiotics minimizes this effect and increases the survival time. However, all of the resources used for treating severe peritonitis, when applied alone or in combination, have an equivalent influence on bacteremia and lethality rates.

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The mandible has a mixed embryological origin, and its growth is associated with the secondary cartilage of the condyle process (CP). In this area, growth depends on an array of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence protein metabolism. In the present study, we used an adolescent rat model to evaluate the growth and development of the CP under conditions of pre- and postnatal protein deficiency, combined with or without the stress of severe burn injury (BI). We found that protein deficiency severely undermined the growth of the CP, by altering the thickness of its constituent layers. BI is also capable of affecting CP growth, although the effect is less severe than protein deficiency. Interestingly, the summed effect of protein deficiency and BI on the CP is less severe than protein deficiency alone. A possible explanation is that the increased carbohydrates in a hypoproteic diet stimulate the production of endogenous insulin and protein synthesis, which partially compensates for the loss of lean body mass caused by BI.

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Background: Despite clinical descriptions of severe vivax malaria cases having been reported, data regarding immunological and inflammatory patterns are scarce. In this report, the inflammatory and immunological status of both mild and severe vivax malaria cases are compared in order to explore immunopathological events in this disease. Methods and Results: Active and passive malaria case detections were performed during 2007 in Buritis, Rondonia, in the Brazilian Amazon. A total of 219 participants enrolled the study. Study individuals were classified according to the presence of Plasmodium vivax infection within four groups: non-infected (n = 90), asymptomatic (n = 60), mild (n = 50) and severe vivax infection (n = 19). A diagnosis of malaria was made by microscopy and molecular assays. Since at present no clear criteria define severe vivax malaria, this study adapted the consensual criteria from falciparum malaria. Patients with severe P. vivax infection were younger, had lived for shorter time in the endemic area, and recalled having experienced less previous malaria episodes than individuals with no malaria infection and with mild or asymptomatic infection. Strong linear trends were identified regarding increasing plasma levels of C reactive protein (CRP), serum creatinine, bilirubins and the graduation of disease severity. Plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF), interferon-gamma(IFN-gamma) and also IFN-gamma/interleukin-10 ratios were increased and exhibited a linear trend with gradual augmentation of disease severity. Both laboratory parameters of organ dysfunction and inflammatory cytokines were reduced during anti-parasite therapy in those patients with severe disease. Conclusion: Different clinical presentations of vivax malaria infection present strong association with activation of pro-inflammatory responses and cytokine imbalance. These findings are of utmost importance to improve current knowledge about physiopathological concepts of this serious widespread disease.

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Stingless bees play an important ecological role as pollinators of many wild plant species in the tropics and have significant potential for the pollination of agricultural crops. Nevertheless, conservation efforts as well as commercial breeding programmes require better guidelines on the amount of genetic variation that is needed to maintain viable populations. In this context, we carried out a long-term genetic study on the stingless bee Melipona scutellaris to evaluate the population viability consequences of prolonged breeding from a small number of founder colonies. In particular, it was artificially imposed a genetic bottleneck by setting up a population starting from only two founder colonies, and continued breeding from it for a period of over 10 years in a location outside its natural area of occurrence. We show that despite a great reduction in the number of alleles present at both neutral microsatellite loci and the sex-determining locus relative to its natural source population, and an increased frequency in the production of sterile diploid males, the genetically impoverished population could be successfully bred and maintained for at least 10 years. This shows that in stingless bees, breeding from a small stock of colonies may have less severe consequences than previously suspected. In addition, we provide a simulation model to determine the number of colonies that are needed to maintain a certain number of sex alleles in a population, thereby providing useful guidelines for stingless bee breeding and conservation efforts.

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Secondary neurodegeneration takes place in the surrounding tissue of spinal cord trauma and modifies substantially the prognosis, considering the small diameter of its transversal axis. We analyzed neuronal and glial responses in rat spinal cord after different degree of contusion promoted by the NYU Impactor. Rats were submitted to vertebrae laminectomy and received moderate or severe contusions. Control animals were sham operated. After 7 and 30 days post surgery, stereological analysis of Nissl staining cellular profiles showed a time progression of the lesion volume after moderate injury, but not after severe injury. The number of neurons was not altered cranial to injury. However, same degree of diminution was seen in the caudal cord 30 days after both severe and moderate injuries. Microdensitometric image analysis demonstrated a microglial reaction in the white matter 30 days after a moderate contusion and showed a widespread astroglial reaction in the white and gray matters 7 days after both severities. Astroglial activation lasted close to lesion and in areas related to Wallerian degeneration. Data showed a more protracted secondary degeneration in rat spinal cord after mild contusion, which offered an opportunity for neuroprotective approaches. Temporal and regional glial responses corroborated to diverse glial cell function in lesioned spinal cord. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Infections with Histoplasma are rarely seen in immunocompromized patients. We report the case of a renal transplant recipient who presented with disseminated histoplasmosis 3.5 years after transplant He presented severe lactic acidosis (LA), sepsis complicated by circulatory failure, renal failure, and liver dysfunction. We describe the successful use of continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF) with regional citrate anticoagulation, treatment that stabilized our patient until infectious focus was identified and treated. The lactate was decreasing, concomitant with hemodynamic improvement, with reduction and suspension of the norepinephrine. The serum lactate level normalized 52 hours after CVVHDF initiated (from 28.9 to 2.2 mmol/L). Continuous renal replacement therapy was safely applied and can be recommended as an efficient method on adjuvant treatment of hyperlactatemia. ASAIO Journal 2009; 55:123-125.

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A thermodynamic approach to predict bulk glass-forming compositions in binary metallic systems was recently proposed. In this approach. the parameter gamma* = Delta H-amor/(Delta H-inter - Delta H-amor) indicates the glass-forming ability (GFA) from the standpoint of the driving force to form different competing phases, and Delta H-amor and Delta H-inter are the enthalpies for-lass and intermetallic formation, respectively. Good glass-forming compositions should have a large negative enthalpy for glass formation and a very small difference for intermetallic formation, thus making the glassy phase easily reachable even under low cooling rates. The gamma* parameter showed a good correlation with GFA experimental data in the Ni-Nb binary system. In this work, a simple extension of the gamma* parameter is applied in the ternary Al-Ni-Y system. The calculated gamma* isocontours in the ternary diagram are compared with experimental results of glass formation in that system. Despite sonic misfitting, the best glass formers are found quite close to the highest gamma* values, leading to the conclusion that this thermodynamic approach can lie extended to ternary systems, serving as a useful tool for the development of new glass-forming compositions. Finally the thermodynamic approach is compared with the topological instability criteria used to predict the thermal behavior of glassy Al alloys. (C) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

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A mathematical model, numerical simulations and stability and flow regime maps corresponding to severe slugging in pipeline riser systems, are presented. In the simulations air and water were used as flowing fluids. The mathematical model considers continuity equations for liquid and gas phases, with a simplified momentum equation for the mixture, neglecting inertia. A drift-flux model, evaluated for the local conditions in the riser, is used as a closure law. The developed model predicts the location of the liquid accumulation front in the pipeline and the liquid level in the riser, so it is possible to determine which type of severe slugging occurs in the system. The numerical procedure is convergent for different nodalizations. A comparison is made with experimental results corresponding to a catenary riser, showing very good results for slugging cycle and stability and flow regime maps. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents the results obtained in pin-on-disk test apparatus using glass and alumina as abrasive materials, showing the rates and mechanisms of abrasive wear of 1070 and 52100 steels, and ductile and white cast irons. The test conditions were selected in order to obtain wear rates that correspond to mild and severe abrasion, using different metal hardness-to-abrasive hardness ratios(H/H(A)) and 0.2 or 0.06 mm abrasive grains. The use of bulk Vickers hardness, instead of microhardness, allows a better description of the different abrasion regions. Under severe abrasion, the microcutting mechanism of wear prevailed together with friction coefficients larger than 0.4. On the other hand, when relatively soft abrasives are tested, indentation of abrasive particles followed by its fragmentation, and a creation of a thin deformed layer were the main damage mechanisms, with the friction coefficient lying below 0.4. The abrasive particle size under mild regime is able to change the wear rates in an order of magnitude. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

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This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

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We report the complete molecular characterization of the DNA-A and DNA-B of a Brazilian tomato isolate of Tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV) and the experimental host range of the virus determined using white-fly transmission tests. Genome analysis showed that ToSRV has a close evolutionary relationship with Tomato rugose mosaic virus. Of 33 plants species inoculated with viruliferous Bemisia tabaci biotype B, 13 species were susceptible to ToSRV, nine asymptomatically. Therefore, ToSRV disease management strategy should include the control of infected weeds close to tomato fields.