Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

A double-blind randomised controlled trial of a natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin versus aqueous cream for managing radiation-induced skin reactions in patients with cancer

Background: Radiation-induced skin reaction (RISR) is one of the most common and distressing side effects of radiotherapy in patients with cancer. It is featured with swelling, redness, itching, pain, breaks in skin, discomfort, and a burning sensation. There is a lack of convincing evidence supporting any single practice in the prevention or management of RISR. Methods/Designs: This double-blinded randomised controlled trial aims to investigate the effects of a natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin (as known as Moogoo Udder Cream®) versus aqueous cream in reducing RISR, improving pain, itching and quality of life in this patient group. One group will receive Moogoo Udder Cream®. Another group will receive aqueous cream. Outcome measures will be collected using patient self-administered questionnaire, interviewer administered questionnaire and clinician assessment at commencement of radiotherapy, weekly during radiotherapy, and four weeks after the completion of radiotherapy. Discussion: Despite advances of radiologic advances and supportive care, RISR are still not well managed. There is a lack of efficacious interventions in managing RISR. While anecdotal evidence suggests that Moogoo Udder Cream® may be effective in managing RISR, research is needed to substantiate this claim. This paper presents the design of a double blind randomised controlled trial that will evaluate the effects of Moogoo Udder Cream® versus aqueous cream for managing in RISR in patients with cancer. Trial registration: ACTRN 12612000568819

Semi-parametric modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal trends in environmental modelling data requires that measurements be taken at multiple sites. The number of sites and duration of measurement at each site must be balanced against costs of equipment and availability of trained staff. The split panel design comprises short measurement campaigns at multiple locations and continuous monitoring at reference sites [2]. Here we present a modelling approach for a spatio-temporal model of ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC) recorded according to a split panel design. The model describes the temporal trends and background levels at each site. The data were measured as part of the “Ultrafine Particles from Transport Emissions and Child Health” (UPTECH) project which aims to link air quality measurements, child health outcomes and a questionnaire on the child’s history and demographics. The UPTECH project involves measuring aerosol and particle counts and local meteorology at each of 25 primary schools for two weeks and at three long term monitoring stations, and health outcomes for a cohort of students at each school [3].

Anomalous event detection using a semi-two dimensional hidden Markov model

The rapid increase in the deployment of CCTV systems has led to a greater demand for algorithms that are able to process incoming video feeds. These algorithms are designed to extract information of interest for human operators. During the past several years, there has been a large effort to detect abnormal activities through computer vision techniques. Typically, the problem is formulated as a novelty detection task where the system is trained on normal data and is required to detect events which do not fit the learned `normal' model. Many researchers have tried various sets of features to train different learning models to detect abnormal behaviour in video footage. In this work we propose using a Semi-2D Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to model the normal activities of people. The outliers of the model with insufficient likelihood are identified as abnormal activities. Our Semi-2D HMM is designed to model both the temporal and spatial causalities of the crowd behaviour by assuming the current state of the Hidden Markov Model depends not only on the previous state in the temporal direction, but also on the previous states of the adjacent spatial locations. Two different HMMs are trained to model both the vertical and horizontal spatial causal information. Location features, flow features and optical flow textures are used as the features for the model. The proposed approach is evaluated using the publicly available UCSD datasets and we demonstrate improved performance compared to other state of the art methods.

Linear adaptive channel equalization for multiuser MIMO-OFDM systems

Linear adaptive channel equalization using the least mean square (LMS) algorithm and the recursive least-squares(RLS) algorithm for an innovative multi-user (MU) MIMOOFDM wireless broadband communications system is proposed. The proposed equalization method adaptively compensates the channel impairments caused by frequency selectivity in the propagation environment. Simulations for the proposed adaptive equalizer are conducted using a training sequence method to determine optimal performance through a comparative analysis. Results show an improvement of 0.15 in BER (at a SNR of 16 dB) when using Adaptive Equalization and RLS algorithm compared to the case in which no equalization is employed. In general, adaptive equalization using LMS and RLS algorithms showed to be significantly beneficial for MU-MIMO-OFDM systems.

Double blind : women as creative practice-led researchers

While the productive relationship between praxis and feminist research has been well established, the situation is more complicated for female artist/researchers in the fraught field of creative practice-led research. Firstly, their research is being conducted in the context of ongoing debate, as Andrea Phillips has summarized, over whether practice-led research has been embraced in order to potentially produce emancipatory knowledge, or whether it is simply the rationalization and quantification of creative processes. Secondly, there is a pervasive paradox whereby, rather than feeling empowered by the process of critical and reflective self-analysis, many women are inhibited by enduring insecurities about the value of their work and/or their ownership of it. The reasons for this appear to be twofold: they are disheartened by the ongoing disproportion of successful women artists, and they are intimidated by the fundamentally masculine discourse surrounding research in the university. Many of these anxieties appear to have been exacerbated by the research quality assessment process, the Excellence in Research for Australia Initiative (ERA). This collaborative paper draws on the authors' experiences as both artist-researchers and educators to contextualize this paradox and also discuss what forms of praxis intervention may be useful in the preparation for, and supervision of, creative practice-led research by women.

Integrating real time positioning systems to improve blind lifting and loading crane operations

Mobile/tower cranes are the most essential forms of construction plant in use in the construction industry but are also the subject of several safety issues. Of these, blind lifting has been found to be one of the most hazardous of crane operations. To improve the situation, a real-time monitoring system that integrates the use of a Global Positioning System (GPS) and Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is developed. This system aims to identify unauthorized work or entrance of personnel within a pre-defined risk zone by obtaining positioning data of both site workers and the crane. The system alerts to the presence of unauthorized workers within a risk zone——currently defined as 3m from the crane. When this happens, the system suspends the power of the crane and a warning signal is generated to the safety management team. In this way the system assists the safety management team to manage the safety of hundreds of workers simultaneously. An onsite trial with debriefing interviews is presented to illustrate and validate the system in use.

Are boards flying blind when it comes to enterprise technology governance?

Considering the sheer speed, complexity and ever changing risk in today’s technology saturated business environment, it’s hardly surprising that the call for digitally savvy directors is increasing. Emerging research suggests serious consequences for boards that continue to ignore or delegate enterprise-level technology governance.

Novel channel tracking and equalization methods in MU-MIMO-OFDM systems

The methodology undertaken, the channel model and the system model created for developing a novel adaptive equalization method and a novel channel tracking method for uplink of MU-MIMO-OFDM systems is presented in this paper. The results show that the channel tracking method works with 97% accuracy, while the training-based initial channel estimation method shows poor performance in estimating the actual channel comparatively.

A semi-supervised graph-based algorithm for detecting outliers in online-social-networks

In this paper, we propose a semi-supervised approach of anomaly detection in Online Social Networks. The social network is modeled as a graph and its features are extracted to detect anomaly. A clustering algorithm is then used to group users based on these features and fuzzy logic is applied to assign degree of anomalous behavior to the users of these clusters. Empirical analysis shows effectiveness of this method.

Randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled trial of Echinacea supplementation in air travellers

Objective. To identify whether a standardised Echinacea formulation is effective in the prevention of respiratory and other symptoms associated with long-haul flights. Methods. 175 adults participated in a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial travelling back from Australia to America, Europe, or Africa for a period of 1–5 weeks on commercial flights via economy class. Participants took Echinacea (root extract, standardised to 4.4 mg alkylamides) or placebo tablets. Participants were surveyed before, immediately after travel, and at 4 weeks after travel regarding upper respiratory symptoms and travel-related quality of life. Results. Respiratory symptoms for both groups increased significantly during travel (

Reusable surface confined semi-conducting metal-TCNQ and metal-TCNQF4 catalysts for electron transfer reactions

The synthesis of organic semiconducting materials based on silver and copper-TCNQ (TCNQ = 7,7,8,8-tetracyanoquinodimethane) and their fluorinated analogues has received a significant amount of attention due to their potential use in organic electronic applications. However, there is a scarcity in the identification of different applications for which these interesting materials may be suitable candidates. In this work, we address this by investigating the catalytic properties of such materials for the electron transfer reaction between ferricyanide and thiosulphate ions in aqueous solution, which to date has been almost solely limited to metallic nanomaterials. Significantly it was found that all the materials investigated, namely CuTCNQ, AgTCNQ, CuTCNQF4 and AgTCNQF4, were catalytically active and, interestingly, the fluorinated analogues were superior. AgTCNQF4 demonstrated the highest activity and was tested for its stability and re-usability for up to 50 cycles without degradation in performance. The catalytic reaction was monitored via UV-vis spectroscopy and open circuit potential versus time measurements, as well as an investigation of the transport properties of the films via electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. It is suggested that morphology and bulk conductivity are not the limiting factors, but rather the balance between the accumulated surface charge from electron injection via thiosulphate ions on the catalyst surface and transfer to the ferricyanide ions which controls the reaction rate. The facile fabrication of re-usable surface confined organic materials that are catalytically active may have important uses for many more electron transfer reactions.

Dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer

The effects of suspension parameters and driving conditions on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer are investigated in this study. A novel nonlinear model of a multi-axle semi-trailer with longitudinal-connected air suspensions is formulated based on fluid mechanics and thermodynamics and validated through test results. The effects of road surface conditions, driving speeds, air line inside diameter and connector inside diameter on dynamic load-sharing capability of the semi-trailer were analyzed in terms of load-sharing criteria. Simulation results indicate that, when larger air lines and connectors are employed, the DLSC (Dynamic Load-Sharing Coefficient) optimization ratio reaches its peak value when the road roughness is medium. The optimization ratio fluctuates in a complex manner as driving speed increases. The results also indicate that if the air line inside diameter is always assumed to be larger than the connector inside diameter, the influence of air line inside diameter on load-sharing is more significant than that of the connector inside diameter. The proposed approach can be used for further study of the influence of additional factors (such as vehicle load, static absolute air pressure and static height of air spring) on load-sharing and the control methods for multi-axle air suspensions with longitudinal air line.