Holocene and Pleistocene pluvial periods in Yemen, Southern Arabia

Arabia is an important potential pathway for the dispersal of Homo sapiens (“out of Africa”). Yet, because of its arid to hyper-arid climate humans could only migrate across southern Arabia during pluvial periods when environmental conditions were favorable. However, knowledge on the timing of Arabian pluvial periods prior to the Holocene is mainly based on a single and possibly incomplete speleothem record from Hoti Cave in Northern Oman. Additional terrestrial records from the Arabian Peninsula are needed to confirm the Hoti Cave record. Here we present a new speleothem record from Mukalla Cave in southern Yemen. The Mukalla Cave and Hoti Cave records clearly reveal that speleothems growth occurred solely during peak interglacial periods, corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1 (early to mid-Holocene), 5.1, 5.3, 5.5 (Eemian), 7.1, 7.5 and 9. Of these humid periods, highest precipitation occurred during MIS 5.5 and lowest during early to middle Holocene.

The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 - Rainfall periods and flood development

Record-breaking rainfall amounts and intensities were observed at several raingauges in central Europe during the first half of August 2002 (Fig. 1). They produced flash floods in small rivers in the Erz Mountains, the Bohemian Forest and in Lower Austria (see Fig. 2), followed by record-breaking floods of larger rivers fed from these areas. The Vltava submerged parts of the city of Prague on 13± 15 August, and subsequently the Elbe flooded parts of Dresden and further villages and towns located downstream. The gauge level of 9.40m measured at Dresden on 17 August 2002 is the highest level since 1275, exceeding the former maximum level of 8.77m recorded in 1845 (Grollmann and Simon 2002). Parts of the Danube catchment were also affected by severe flooding. There were 100 fatalities connected with the floods in central Europe, and the economic loss is estimated at 9 billion Euros for Germany (German government’s estimate), 3 billion Euros for Austria, and 2.5 billion Euros for the Czech Republic (estimates from Boyle 2002). The event thus replaced the European winter storm Lothar of December 1999 (Ulbrich et al. 2001) as the most expensive weather-related catastrophe in Europe in recent decades (see Cornford 2002). In this study, we give an overview of the exceptional rainfall experienced over wide areas on 12/13 August 2002, and the resulting floods. Further events during early August 2002, in particular the event on 6/7 August in Lower Austria, are briefly mentioned.

Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods

In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bond, credit default swap (CDS), equity and equity option prices. We analyse short term price discovery by modelling daily changes in credit spreads in the four markets with a vector autoregressive model (VAR). We also look at price discovery in the long run with a vector error correction model (VECM). We find that in the short term the option market clearly leads the other markets in the sub-prime crisis (2007-2009). During the less severe sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012) and the pre-crisis period, options are still important but CDSs become more prominent. In the long run, deviations from the equilibrium relationship with the option market still lead to adjustments in the credit spreads observed or implied from other markets. However, options no longer dominate price discovery in any of the periods considered. Our findings have implications for traders, credit risk managers and financial regulators.

Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods

Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Observations on the flight paths of the day-flying moth Virbia lamae during periods of mate location: do males have a strategy for contacting the pheromone plume?

1. To maximize the probability of rapid contact with a female’s pheromone plume, the trajectories of male foraging flights might be expected to be directed with respect to wind flow and also to be energetically efficient. 2. Flights directed either upwind, downwind, or crosswind have been proposed as optimal strategies for rapid and/or energetically efficient plume contact. Other possible strategies are random and Lévy walks, which have trajectories and turn frequencies that are not dictated by the direction of wind flow. 3. The planar flight paths of males of the day-active moth Virbia lamae were recorded during the customary time of its sexual activity. 4. We found no directional preference in these foraging flights with respect to the direction of contemporaneous wind flow, but, because crosswind encompasses twice the possible orientations of either upwind or downwind, a random orientation is in effect a de facto crosswind strategy. 5. A crosswind preference should be favoured when the plume extends farther downwind than crosswind, and this strategy is realized by V. lamae males by a random orientation of their trajectories with respect to current wind direction

Middle and Late Pleistocene humid periods recorded in palaeolake deposits of the Nafud desert, Saudi Arabia

Present climate in the Nafud desert of northern Saudi Arabia is hyper-arid and moisture brought by north-westerly winds scarcely reaches the region. The existence of abundant palaeolake sediments provides evidence for a considerably wetter climate in the past. However, the existing chronological framework of these deposits is solely based on radiocarbon dating of questionable reliability, due to potential post-depositional contamination with younger 14C. By using luminescence dating, we show that the lake deposits were not formed between 40 and 20 ka as suggested previously, but approximately ca 410 ka, 320 ka, 200 ka, 125 ka, and 100 ka ago. All of these humid phases are in good agreement with those recorded in lake sediments and speleothems from southern Arabia. Surprisingly, no Holocene lake deposits were identified. Geological characteristics of the deposits and diatom analysis suggest that a single, perennial lake covered the entire south-western Nafud ca 320 ka ago. In contrast, lakes of the 200 ka, 125 ka, and 100 ka humid intervals were smaller and restricted to interdune depressions of a pre-existing dune relief. The concurrent occurrence of humid phases in the Nafud, southern Arabia and the eastern Mediterranean suggests that moisture in northern Arabia originated either from the Mediterranean due to more frequent frontal depression systems or from stronger Indian monsoon circulation, respectively. However, based on previously published climate model simulations and palaecolimate evidence from central Arabia and the Negev desert, we argue that humid climate conditions in the Nafud were probably caused by a stronger African monsoon and a distinct change in zonal atmospheric circulation.

Lymphocyte and Cytokines after Short Periods of Exercise

The purpose of this study was to verify the effects of short periods of exercise of different intensity on lymphocyte function and cytokines. Thirty Wistar rats, 2 months old, were used. They were divided into five groups of six rats: a sedentary control group; a group exercised for 5 minutes at low intensity (5 L): a group exercised for 15 minutes at low intensity (15 L); and groups exercised at moderate intensity (additional load of 5% of body weight) for 5 minutes (5 M) or for 15 minutes (15 M). The parameters measured were: total leukocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, lymphocytes from lymph nodes, serum cytokines (IL-2, IL-6 and TNF-alpha), lymphocyte mitochondrial transmembrane potential, viability and DNA fragmentation. ANOVA two way followed by Tukey`s post hoc test (p <= 0.05) was used. The exercised groups exhibited a significant increase in total leukocytes, tissue and circulating lymphocytes in comparison with the control group. There was a significant decrease in lymphocyte viability and decrease in DNA fragmentation for the 15 M group when compared with the control. There was a decrease in the level TNF-alpha in the 5 M and 15 M groups. Short-term, low- and moderate-intensity exercise may be considered for sedentary individuals beginning to exercise, since no deleterious alterations were observed in lymphocyte function.

Emissions Characterisation of residential pellet boilers during start-up and stop periods

In this study, gaseous emissions and particles are measured during start-up and stop periods for an over-fed boiler and an under-fed boiler. Both gaseous and particulate matter emissions are continuously measured in the laboratory. The measurement of gaseous emissions includes oxygen (O2), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide and (NO). The emissions rates are calculated from measured emissions concentrations and flue gas flow. The behaviours of the boilers during start-up and stop periods are analysed and the emissions are characterised in terms of CO, NO, TOC and particles (PM2.5 mass and number). The duration of the characterised periods vary between two boilers due to the difference in type of ignition and combustion control. The under-fed boiler B produces higher emissions during start-up periods than the over-fed boiler A. More hydrocarbon and particles are emitted by the under-fed boiler during stop periods. Accumulated mass of CO and TOC during start-up and stop periods contribute a major portion of the total mass emitted during whole operation. However, accumulated mass of NO and PM during start-up and stop periods are not significant as the duration of emission peak is relatively short.

Effect of poultry viscera meal inclusion in broiler diets in different rearing periods on performance, carcass and parts yields

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Critical periods of weed control in naturally green colored cotton BRS Verde

Cotton with naturally colored fiber is increasing as a commercial crop due specially to its textile processing with reduced environmental impact, as dying is not necessary. The critical period of weed control and the weed community were studied in a field with the naturally green colored fiber cv. BRS Verde cultivated in Missao Velha, Brazil. Without weed control during all the cycle, a reduction of 82.9% in yield was observed. The critical period of weed control was between 31 and 74 days after emergence for a reduction of 5% in yield. The weed community was composed of 21 species, with higher relative importance and dominance of monocotyledonous species. The beginning of the critical period was found to be more influential on yield than the ending. Thus, defining the right moment to start weed control can be more important to yield than determining the moment to cease it. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of weeds interference periods in bean

Objetivou-se com este trabalho determinar o período de convivência anterior à interferência das plantas daninhas (PAI) e o período anterior ao dano no rendimento econômico (PADRE) na cultura do feijão, em diferentes espaçamentos (0,45 e 0,60 m) e densidade de plantas (10 e 15 plantas m-1). Os tratamentos foram constituídos de períodos de convivência entre a cultura e as plantas daninhas (0 a 10, 0 a 20, 0 a 30, 0 a 40, 0 a 50, 0 a 60, 0 a 70 e 0 a 80 dias), mais uma testemunha sem convívio com as plantas daninhas. Adotou-se o delineamento experimental de blocos casualizados, com quatro repetições. Os períodos anteriores à interferência (PAI) da cultura foram de 23, 27, 13 e 19 dias após emergência, e os períodos anteriores ao dano no rendimento econômico (PADRE), de 10, 9, 8 e 8 dias, para os tratamentos com espaçamento de 0,45 m e densidades de semeadura de 10 e 15 plantas m-1 e para aqueles com espaçamento de 0,60 m e densidades de semeadura de 10 e 15 plantas m-1, respectivamente, o que reduziu a produtividade de grãos em 63, 50, 42 e 57%, respectivamente, com a presença das plantas daninhas durante todo o ciclo do feijoeiro.

Estimation of genetic parameters for partial egg production periods by means of random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)