Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes

Climate models taking part in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) all predict a global mean sea level rise for the 21st century. Yet the sea level change is not spatially uniform and differs among models. Here we evaluate the role of air–sea fluxes of heat, water and momentum (windstress) to find the spatial pattern associated to each of them as well as the spread they can account for. Using one AOGCM to which we apply the surface flux changes from other AOGCMs, we show that the heat flux and windstress changes dominate both the pattern and the spread, but taking the freshwater flux into account as well yields a sea level change pattern in better agreement with the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Differences among the CMIP5 control ocean temperature fields have a smaller impact on the sea level change pattern.

Evaluating the ability of process based models to project sea-level change

We evaluate the ability of process based models to reproduce observed global mean sea-level change. When the models are forced by changes in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system and anthropogenic changes in land-water storage, the average of the modelled sea-level change for the periods 1900–2010, 1961–2010 and 1990–2010 is about 80%, 85% and 90% of the observed rise. The modelled rate of rise is over 1 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, decreases to less than 0.5 mm yr−1 in the 1960s, and increases to 3 mm yr−1 by 2000. When observed regional climate changes are used to drive a glacier model and an allowance is included for an ongoing adjustment of the ice sheets, the modelled sea-level rise is about 2 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, similar to the observations. The model results encompass the observed rise and the model average is within 20% of the observations, about 10% when the observed ice sheet contributions since 1993 are added, increasing confidence in future projections for the 21st century. The increased rate of rise since 1990 is not part of a natural cycle but a direct response to increased radiative forcing (both anthropogenic and natural), which will continue to grow with ongoing greenhouse gas emissions

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Grain size and heavy minerals of the Late Quaternary eolian sediments from the Imbituba-Jaguaruna coast, Southern Brazil: Depositional controls linked to relative sea-level changes

The stratigraphic subdivision and correlation of dune deposits is difficult, especially when age datings are not available. A better understanding of the controls on texture and composition of eolian sands is necessary to interpret ancient eolian sediments. The Imbituba-Jaguaruna coastal zone (Southern Brazil, 28 degrees-29 degrees S) stands out due to its four well-preserved Late Pleistocene (eolian generation 1) to Holocene eolian units (eolian generations 2, 3, and 4). In this study, we evaluate the grain-size and heavy-mineral characteristics of the Imbituba-Jaguartma eolian units through statistical analysis of hundreds of sediment samples. Grain-size parameters and heavy-mineral content allow us to distinguish the Pleistocene from the Holocene units. The grain size displays a pattern of fining and better sorting from generation 1 (older) to 4 (younger), whereas the content of mechanically stable (dense and hard) heavy minerals decreases from eolian generation 1 to 4. The variation in grain size and heavy-mineral content records shifts in the origin and balance (input versus output) of eolian sediment supply attributable mainly to relative sea-level changes. Dunefields submitted to relative sea-level lowstand conditions (eolian generation 1) are characterized by lower accumulation rates and intense post-depositional dissection by fluvial incision. Low accumulation rates favor deflation in the eolian system, which promotes concentration of denser and stable heavy minerals (increase of ZTR index) as well as coarsening of eolian sands. Dissection involves the selective removal of finer sediments and less dense heavy minerals to the coastal source area. Under a high rate of relative sea-level rise and transgression (eolian generation 2), coastal erosion prevents deflation through high input of sediments to the coastal eolian source. This condition favors dunefield growth. Coastal erosion feeds sand from local sources to the eolian system. including sands from previous dunefields (eolian generation 1) and from drowned incised valleys. Therefore, dunefields corresponding to transgressive phases inherit the grain-size and heavy-mineral characteristics of previous dunefields, leading to selective enrichment of finer sands and lighter minerals. Eolian generations 3 and 4 developed during a regressive-progradational phase (Holocene relative sea level highstand). The high rate of sediment supply during the highstand phase prevents deflation. The lack of coastal erosion favors sediment supply from distal sources (fluvial sediments rich in unstable heavy minerals). Thus, dunefields of transgressive and highstand systems tracts may be distinguished from dunefields of the lowstand systems tract through high rates of accumulation (low deflation) in the former. The sediment source of the transgressive dunefields (high input of previously deposited coastal sands) differs from that of the highstand dunefields (high input of fluvial distal sands). Based on this case study, we propose a general framework for the relation between relative sea level, sediment supply and the texture and mineralogy of eolian sediments deposited in siliciclastic wet coastal zones similar to the Imbituba-Jaguaruna coast (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The last mangroves of Marajo Island - Eastern Amazon: Impact of climate and/or relative sea-level changes

The dynamics, over the last 7500 years, of a mangrove at Marajo Island in northern Brazil were studied by pollen and sedimentary facies analyses using sediment cores. This island, located at the mouth of the Amazon River. is influenced by riverine inflow combined with tidal fluctuations of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Herbaceous vegetation intermingled with rainforest dominates the central area of the island, while varzea is the main vegetation type along the littoral. In particular, the modem northeastern coastal zone is covered by a mosaic of dense rainforest, herbaceous vegetation, mangroves, varzea, and restinga. The integration of pollen data and fades descriptions indicates a tidal mud flat colonized by mangroves in the interior of Marajo Island between similar to 7500 cal yr BP and similar to 3200 cal yr BP. During the late Holocene, mangroves retracted to a small area (100-700 m in width) along the northeastern coastal plain. Mangrove expansion during the early and mid Holocene was likely caused by the post-glacial sea-level rise which, combined with tectonic subsidence, led to a rise in tidal water salinity. Salinity must have further increased due to low river discharge resulting from increased aridity during the early and mid Holocene. The shrinking of the area covered by mangrove vegetation during the late Holocene was likely caused by the increase in river discharge during the late Holocene, which has maintained relatively low tidal water salinity in Marajo Island. Tidal water salinity is relatively higher in the northeastern part of the island than in others, due to the southeast-northwest trending current along the littoral. The mixing of marine and riverine freshwater inflows has provided a refuge for mangroves in this area. The increase in flow energy during the last century is related to landward sand migration, which explains the current retraction of mangroves. These changes may indicate an increased exposure to tidal influence driven by the relative sea-level rise, either associated with global fluctuations or tectonic subsidence, and/or by an increase in river water discharge. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea level trends in the Mediterranean from tide gauges and satellite altimetry

Sea level variation is one of the parameters directly related to climate change. Monitoring sea level rise is an important scientific issue since many populated areas of the world and megacities are located in low-lying regions. At present, sea level is measured by means of two techniques: the tide gauges and the satellite radar altimetry. Tide gauges measure sea-level relatively to a ground benchmark, hence, their measurements are directly affected by vertical ground motions. Satellite radar altimetry measures sea-level relative to a geocentric reference and are not affected by vertical land motions. In this study, the linear relative sea level trends of 35 tide gauge stations distributed across the Mediterranean Sea have been computed over the period 1993-2014. In order to extract the real sea-level variation, the vertical land motion has been estimated using the observations of available GPS stations and removed from the tide gauges records. These GPS-corrected trends have then been compared with satellite altimetry measurements over the same time interval (AVISO data set). A further comparison has been performed, over the period 1993-2013, using the CCI satellite altimetry data set which has been generated using an updated modeling. The absolute sea level trends obtained from satellite altimetry and GPS-corrected tide gauge data are mostly consistent, meaning that GPS data have provided reliable corrections for most of the sites. The trend values range between +2.5 and +4 mm/yr almost everywhere in the Mediterranean area, the largest trends were found in the Northern Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean. These results are in agreement with estimates of the global mean sea level rise over the last two decades. Where GPS data were not available, information on the vertical land motion deduced from the differences between absolute and relative trends are in agreement with the results of other studies.

Benthic foraminifera and sea level analyses from IODP Hole 310-M0005D

The course of sea-level fluctuations during Termination II (TII; the penultimate deglaciation), which is critical for understanding ice-sheet dynamics and suborbital climate variability, has yet to be established. This is partly because most shallow-water sequences encompassing TII were eroded during sea-level lowstands of the last glacial period or were deposited below the present sea level. Here we report a new sequence recording sea-level changes during TII in the Pleistocene sequence at Hole M0005D (water depth: 59.63 m below sea level [mbsl]) off Tahiti, French Polynesia, which was drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310. Lithofacies variations and stratigraphic changes in the taxonomic composition, preservation states, and intraspecific test morphology of large benthic foraminifers indicate a deepening-upward sequence in the interval from Core 310-M0005D-26R (core depth: 134 mbsl) through -16R (core depth: 106 mbsl). Reconstruction of relative sea levels, based on paleodepth estimations using large benthic foraminifers, indicated a rise in sea level of about 90 m during this interval, suggesting its correlation with one of the terminations. Assuming that this rise in sea level corresponds to that during TII, after correcting for subsidence since the time of deposition, a highstand sea-level position would be 2 ± 15 m above present sea level (masl), which is generally consistent with highstand sea-level positions in MIS 5e (4 ± 2 masl). If this rise in sea level corresponds to that during older terminations, the subsidence-corrected highstand sea-level positions (30 ± 15 masl for Termination III and 54 ± 15 masl for Termination IV) are not consistent with reported ranges of interglacial sea-level highstands (-18 to 15 masl). Therefore, the studied interval likely records the rise in sea level and associated environmental changes during TII. In particular, the intervening cored materials between the two episodes of sea-level rise found in the studied interval might record the sea-level reversal event during TII. This conclusion is consistent with U/Th ages of around 133 ka, which were obtained from slightly diagenetically altered (i.e., < 1% calcite) in situ corals in the studied interval (Core 310-M0005D-20R [core depth: 118 mbsl]). This study also suggests that our inverse approach to correlate a stratigraphic interval with an approximate time frame could be useful as an independent check on the accuracy of uranium-series dating, which has been applied extensively to fossil corals in late Quaternary sea-level studies.

Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of change can be up to 20-25 mm/yr. The emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south-north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysis of observed sea level change patterns could be useful for monitoring the THC strength.

Alpha-cellulose δ13C variation in mangrove tree rings correlates well with annual sea level trend between 1982 and 1999

A pilot study of tree rings in a modern mangrove tree (Rhizophora apiculata) from Leizhou Peninsula, northern South China Sea shows that ( 1) the tree-rings are annual; ( 2) the ring widths decrease; and ( 3) their alpha-cellulose delta(13)C values increase from 1982 to 1999 AD, consistent with the trends of annual sea level, salinity and sea surface temperatures in the same period. We propose that such changes were caused by increasingly longer duration of waterlogging in response to sea-level rise. If this is the case, alpha-cellulose delta(13)C in mangrove tree rings can be used as a potential indicator of past sea level fluctuations.

Quaternary paleoenvironments and relative sea-level changes in Marajo Island (Northern Brazil): Facies, delta(13)C, delta(15)N and C/N

The reconstruction of physical environments of Amazonian areas is of great interest to determine the dynamic evolution of the Amazon drainage basin. However. few studies have emphasized the Quaternary deposits in this region. which is mostly due to the lack of natural exposures imposed by the low topography. This work integrates facies analysis. radiocarbon dating, delta(13)C, delta(15)N, and C/N of an 124 m-thick core from an area located at the mouth of the Amazon River. northeastern Amazonia. The study records deposits up to 50.795 (14)C yr B P. in age. which formed in a variety of depositional environments including fluvial channel, tidal flat, outer estuarine basin to shallow marine. inner estuarine basin, estuarine channel and lagoon. Facies interpretation was significantly improved with the inclusion of delta(13)C, delta(15)N, and C/N analyses of organic matter extracted from the sediments The obtained values conform to a transitional. mostly estuarine paleosetting evolved during successive relative sea-level fluctuations. The results suggest fluvial deposition between 40,950 (+/- 590) and 50.795 (14)C yr B P, with a rise in relative sea level that commenced between 35,567 (+/- 649) and 39,079 (+/- 1114) (14)C yr B P. An overall transgression took place until 29,340 (+/- 340) (14)C yr B P., after which the relative sea level dropped, favoring valley rejuvenation and incision. Following this time up to 10,479 (+/- 34) (14)C yr B.P. a rise in relative sea level filled up the valley with estuarine deposits After 10.479(+/- 34) (14)C yr B.P., the estuary was replaced by a lagoon At the end of the Holocene, the coastline prograided approximately 45 km northward, replaci ng the lagoon by a lake system Despite the influence of eustatic fluctuations. regional tectonics played a significant role to create new space where these Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments accumulated. (C) 2009 Elsevier B V All rights reserved.

Sea-level changes and ammonite faunal turnover during the Lias/Dogger transition in the western Tethys

The aim of this paper was to investigate the possible connections between ammonite faunal turnover and the eustatic events recorded in Tethyan sequences during the middle Toarcian/early Bajocian time interval. For this we have analysed the biostratigraphic ranges, at the subzone level, of approximately 600 ammonite species belonging to 160 genera from several selected sections of the western Tethys (Mediterranean and Submediterranean provinces). The analysis of taxon ranges enabled us to plot curves for ammonite faunal turnovers, inter-subzonal distance, and diversity. Comparing the mentioned curves with Tethyan sequences [Hardenbol et al., 19981, we find that sea-level changes correlate well with origination and extinction events and faunal diversity. Most of the faunal turnovers correlate with stratigraphic events. Extinction events with their corresponding decrease in diversity correlate with regressive intervals and with major or minor sequence boundaries. Origination events and their corresponding increase in diversity were clearly connected with transgressions in Tethyan sequences. In several cases, the major sequence boundary and the subsequent transgressive phase correlate with major ammonite faunal turnover, whereas minor or medium sequence boundaries generally gave rise to minor or medium turnovers.

Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region

During the second half of the twentieth century the Indian Ocean exhibited a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures (SST). It has been argued - largely on the basis of experiments with atmospheric GCMs - that this rapid warming was an important cause of remote changes in climate, in particular an increasing trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and decreases in African rainfall. Here however we present evidence that the Indian Ocean warming was associated with local increases in sea level pressure (SLP). These increases are inconsistent with results from experiments in which an atmospheric GCM is forced by historical SST, which show robust decreases in SLP. The clear discrepancy between the observed and simulated trends in SLP suggests that the response of some atmospheric GCMs to the Indian Ocean warming may not provide a reliable guide to the behaviour of the real world.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Late Quaternary sedimentation in the Paraiba Basin, Northeastern Brazil: Landform, sea level and tectonics in Eastern South America passive margin

Late Quaternary deposits in the northeastern Brazil have been scarcely investigated, despite their relevance to the discussion of the post-rift evolution of the South American passive margin within the context of landform, sea level and tectonic deformation. Sedimentological, stratigraphic and morphological characterization of these deposits, referred as Post-Barreiras Sediments, led to their distinction from underlying Early/Middle Miocene strata. Based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, two sedimentary units (PB1 and PB2) were recognized and related to the time intervals between 74.8 +/- 9.3 and 30.8 +/- 6.9 ka, and 8.8 +/- 0.9 and 1.8 +/- 0.2 ka, respectively. Unit PB1 consists of indurated sandstones and breccias either with massive bedding or complex types of soft sediment deformation structures generated by contemporaneous seismic activity. Unit PB2 is composed of massive sands or sands related to structures developed by dissipation of dunes. The present work, focusing on the Post-Barreiras Sediments, discusses landform, sea level and tectonics of the eastern South American passive margin during the latest Quaternary. Non-deposition and sub-aerial exposure related to the Tortonian worldwide low sea level combined with tectonic quiescence followed the Miocene transgression. Tectonic deformation in the latest Pleistocene created space to accommodate unit PB1 in downthrown faulted blocks and, perhaps, also synclines produced by strike-slip deformation. Although deposition of this unit was simultaneous with the progressive fall in sea level that followed the Last Interglacial Maximum, punctuated rises combined with land subsidence led to marine deposition close to the modern coastline. Renewed subsidence in the Holocene gave rise to accommodation of the Post-Barreiras Sediments. Most of unit PB2 was deposited during the Holocene Transgression, but it is not composed of marine sediments, which suggests either an insignificant rise in relative sea level or aeolian reworking of thin transgressive sands. The data presented here lead to a review of the evolution of the South American passive margin based on assumptions of uniform sedimentation and undeformed planation surfaces over a wide coastal area of the northeastern Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.