Methodologies for the generation of design summer years for building energy simulation using UKCP09 probabilitic climate projections

Design summer years representing near-extreme hot summers have been used in the United Kingdom for the evaluation of thermal comfort and overheating risk. The years have been selected from measured weather data basically representative of an assumed stationary climate. Recent developments have made available ‘morphed’ equivalents of these years by shifting and stretching the measured variables using change factors produced by the UKCIP02 climate projections. The release of the latest, probabilistic, climate projections of UKCP09 together with the availability of a weather generator that can produce plausible daily or hourly sequences of weather variables has opened up the opportunity for generating new design summer years which can be used in risk-based decision-making. There are many possible methods for the production of design summer years from UKCP09 output: in this article, the original concept of the design summer year is largely retained, but a number of alternative methodologies for generating the years are explored. An alternative, more robust measure of warmth (weighted cooling degree hours) is also employed. It is demonstrated that the UKCP09 weather generator is capable of producing years for the baseline period, which are comparable with those in current use. Four methodologies for the generation of future years are described, and their output related to the future (deterministic) years that are currently available. It is concluded that, in general, years produced from the UKCP09 projections are warmer than those generated previously. Practical applications: The methodologies described in this article will facilitate designers who have access to the output of the UKCP09 weather generator (WG) to generate Design Summer Year hourly files tailored to their needs. The files produced will differ according to the methodology selected, in addition to location, emissions scenario and timeslice.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

Using the Technology Acceptance Model to explore community dwelling older adults’ perceptions of a 3D interior design application to facilitate pre-discharge home adaptations

Background In the UK occupational therapy pre-discharge home visits are routinely carried out as a means of facilitating safe transfer from the hospital to home. Whilst they are an integral part of practice, there is little evidence to demonstrate they have a positive outcome on the discharge process. Current issues for patients are around the speed of home visits and the lack of shared decision making in the process, resulting in less than 50 % of the specialist equipment installed actually being used by patients on follow-up. To improve practice there is an urgent need to examine other ways of conducting home visits to facilitate safe discharge. We believe that Computerised 3D Interior Design Applications (CIDAs) could be a means to support more efficient, effective and collaborative practice. A previous study explored practitioners perceptions of using CIDAs; however it is important to ascertain older adult’s views about the usability of technology and to compare findings. This study explores the perceptions of community dwelling older adults with regards to adopting and using CIDAs as an assistive tool for the home adaptations process. Methods Ten community dwelling older adults participated in individual interactive task-focused usability sessions with a customised CIDA, utilising the think-aloud protocol and individual semi-structured interviews. Template analysis was used to carry out both deductive and inductive analysis of the think-aloud and interview data. Initially, a deductive stance was adopted, using the three pre-determined high-level themes of the technology acceptance model (TAM): Perceived Usefulness (PU), Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU), Actual Use (AU). Inductive template analysis was then carried out on the data within these themes, from which a number of sub-thmes emerged. Results Regarding PU, participants believed CIDAs served as a useful visual tool and saw clear potential to facilitate shared understanding and partnership in care delivery. For PEOU, participants were able to create 3D home environments however a number of usability issues must still be addressed. The AU theme revealed the most likely usage scenario would be collaborative involving both patient and practitioner, as many participants did not feel confident or see sufficient value in using the application autonomously. Conclusions This research found that older adults perceived that CIDAs were likely to serve as a valuable tool which facilitates and enhances levels of patient/practitioner collaboration and empowerment. Older adults also suggested a redesign of the interface so that less sophisticated dexterity and motor functions are required. However, older adults were not confident, or did not see sufficient value in using the application autonomously. Future research is needed to further customise the CIDA software, in line with the outcomes of this study, and to explore the potential of collaborative application patient/practitioner-based deployment.

Defuturing an architecture of destruction: a reconciliation of Van Berkel and Bos to the new design philosophy of Tony Fry

For some time now Tony Fry has promoted the idea of 'The Sustainment', an idea that asserts a paradigm shift in attitudes to consumption. 'The Sustainment' recognises that increasingly human futures are products of self-determination and not chance. Fry’s hypothesis can be understood through his concept of Defuturing, a philosophy that questions the role of design and the responsibility of designers to facilitating the ability to sustain (Fry 1999).
Central to Fry’s philosophy is an awareness that it is in the best interests of designers and their clients, as inhabitants of cultures increasingly driven by technology, to be aware of the relationships between the products and theories of design and the processes and implications of technological change. This is an awareness that is central to the concepts, work, and methodologies of the ‘UN Studio’ of Van Berkel and Bos described and elaborated upon in Move – Imagination, Techniques, and Effects (Van Berkel & Bos 1999). Here, Ben Van Berkel defines the parameters and methodologies employed by UN Studio in an environment of technological and socio-economic change. The Dutch practice could be said to exemplify something of a zeitgeist in current architectural design that sees architects, as Van Berkel and Bos view them, as “fashion designers of the future, dressing events to come and holding up a mirror to the world (Van Berkel & Bos 1999, back cover).” It is a zeitgeist that Fry might see as aligned to the resilient hype of ‘new creativity’, ‘globalisation’ the ‘romance with technology’, and the vacuous-ness of the world of fashion. (Fry The Voice of Sustainment: on Design Intelligence 2005).
A source of breaking down such design propaganda is identified by Fry in the notion of ‘scenarios,’ which “provide a mechanism for politico-practice assemblage in which dialogues and narratives of change can be rehearsed in ways that enable participants to re-educate themselves via critical confrontations” (Fry The Voice of Sustainment: on Design Intelligence 2005). From such a perspective this paper aims to practically illustrate and ground the Defuturing of Fry by establishing a dialogue between his writings and the theories that have generated the architectural designs of Van Berkel and Bos and there UN Studio. This will be a ‘scenario’ that examines therefore an appropriation and transformation of the applied intellectual practice of Van Berkel and Bos. Through this confrontation we shall explore the question of why sustainability appears to be so low in the agenda of many pre-eminent contemporary architects, and how we might refocus therefore practice and theory on the ability to sustain.

On the influence of building design, occupants and heat waves on comfort and greenhouse gas emissions in naturally ventilated offices. A study based on the EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model in Athens, Greece

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the buildings sector has the largest mitigation potential for CO2 emissions. Especially in office buildings, where internal heat loads and a relatively high occupant density occur at the same time with solar heat gains, overheating has become a common problem. In Europe the adaptive thermal comfort model according to EN 15251 provides a method to evaluate thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings. However, especially in the context of the climate change and the occurrence of heat waves within the last decade, the question arises, how thermal comfort can be maintained without additional cooling, especially in warm climates. In this paper a parametric study for a typical cellular naturally ventilated office room has been conducted, using the building simulation software EnergyPlus. It is based on the Mediterranean climate of Athens, Greece. Adaptive thermal comfort is evaluated according to EN 15251. Variations refer to different building design priorities, and they consider the variability of occupant behaviour and internal heat loads by using an ideal and worst case scenario. The influence of heat waves is considered by comparing measured temperatures for an average and an exceptionally hot year within the last decade. Since the use of building controls for shading affects thermal as well as visual comfort, daylighting and view are evaluated as well. Conclusions are drawn regarding the influence and interaction of building design, occupants and heat waves on comfort and greenhouse gas emissions in naturally ventilated offices, and related optimisation potential.

On the edge of the desert : design and planning for Roxby Downs

The design and planning of settlements in arid Australia has long been wrought with difficulties because they are positioned in the extremes of environmental and social contexts. Historically many mining-related settlements in Western Australia (WA), South Australia (SA), Northern Territory (NT) and Queensland have struggled or failed in realising a quality design and plan, but also to sustain a robust and vibrant community who do not wish to escape to mainstream suburbia or simply operate as a fly-in fly-out employer commuter from this suburbia. Places like Mt Isa, Theodore, Moranbah, Broken Hill, Radium Hill, Leigh Creek, Roxby Downs, Paraburdoo, Shay Gap, Karratha are typical of these circumstances.

This paper reviews the design and planning origins of the villages at Olympic Dam, and critiques the future designs embedded in the Olympic Dam Expansion Environmental Impact Statement [EIS] (2009). These villages consist of Olympic dam village ( a fly-in fly-out dong-go containerised community accommodating some 500 workers) and Roxby Downs (a mixed Adelaide-template suburb with temporary village and caravan park insertions accommodation some 4,500 ‘permanent’ residents and some 200 fly-in fly-out ‘workers’). The scenario presented in the EIS is to demolish the former and establish a new village for some 10,000 workers, and expand Roxby Downs from 4,500 to near 20,000 although whether this later figure will occur is unclear but certainly the infrastructure and facilities have to be increased as well as increasing residential accommodation units).

Occupant behaviour simulation for cellular offices in early design stages - Architectural and modelling considerations

Building simulation is most useful and most difficult in early design stages. Most useful since the optimisation potential is large and most difficult because input data are often not available at the level of resolution required for simulation software. The aim of this paper is to addresses this difficulty, by analysing the predominantly qualitative information in early stages of an architectural design process in search for indicators towards quantitative simulation input. The discussion in this paper is focused on cellular offices. Parameters related to occupancy, the use of office equipment, night ventilation, the use of lights and blinds are reviewed based on simulation input requirements, architectural considerations in early design stages and occupant behaviour considerations in operational stages. A worst and ideal case scenario is suggested as a generic approach to model occupant behaviour in early design stages when more detailed information is not available. Without actually predicting specific occupant behaviour, this approach highlights the magnitude of impact that occupants can have on comfort and building energy performance and it matches the level of resolution of available architectural information in early design stages. This can be sufficient for building designers to compare the magnitude of impact of occupants with other parameters in order to inform design decisions. Potential indicators in early design stages towards the ideal or worst case scenario are discussed.

Evaluation of a filmed clinical scenario as a teaching resource for an introductory pharmacology unit for undergraduate health students: A pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Simulation is frequently being used as a learning and teaching resource for both undergraduate and postgraduate students, however reporting of the effectiveness of simulation particularly within the pharmacology context is scant. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario as a teaching resource in an undergraduate pharmacological unit. DESIGN: Pilot cross-sectional quantitative survey. SETTING: An Australian university. PARTICIPANTS: 32 undergraduate students completing a healthcare degree including nursing, midwifery, clinical science, health science, naturopathy, and osteopathy. METHODS: As a part of an undergraduate online pharmacology unit, students were required to watch a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario. To evaluate student learning, a measurement instrument developed from Bloom's cognitive domains (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis and evaluation) was employed to assess pharmacological knowledge conceptualisation and knowledge application within the following fields: medication errors; medication adverse effects; medication interactions; and, general pharmacology. RESULTS: The majority of participants were enrolled in an undergraduate nursing or midwifery programme (72%). Results demonstrated that the majority of nursing and midwifery students (56.52%) found the teaching resource complementary or more useful compared to a lecture although less so compared to a tutorial. Students' self-assessment of learning according to Bloom's cognitive domains indicated that the filmed scenario was a valuable learning tool. Analysis of variance indicated that health science students reported higher levels of learning compared to midwifery and nursing. CONCLUSION: Students' self-report of the learning benefits of a filmed simulated clinical scenario as a teaching resource suggest enhanced critical thinking skills and knowledge conceptualisation regarding pharmacology, in addition to being useful and complementary to other teaching and learning methods.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Influence of Implant Design on the Biomechanical Environment of Immediately Placed Implants: Computed Tomography-Based Nonlinear Three-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Intencionalidade e indeterminação interpretativa no design de produto

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O design e a consciência da sustentabilidade integral: o projeto Tamar na Vila Regência, ES

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Design sistêmico e ecoinovação em APLs: o método F.L.O.R.A como estratégia sustentável aplicada para o polo de confecções de Pernambuco

Pós-graduação em Design - FAAC

The horn of plenty de McQueen: uma conjunção paródica entre o design, a moda e a arte no contemporâneo

Pós-graduação em Design - FAAC