Ocean Boundary Layer Dynamics and Air-Sea Interaction

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2005-12

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

Air-Sea Interactions During the Passage of a Winter Storm Over the Gulf Stream: A Three-Dimensional Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Study

A three-dimensional, regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model with full physics is developed to study air-sea interactions during winter storms off the U. S. east coast. Because of the scarcity of open ocean observations, models such as this offer valuable opportunities to investigate how oceanic forcing drives atmospheric circulation and vice versa. The study presented here considers conditions of strong atmospheric forcing (high wind speeds) and strong oceanic forcing (significant sea surface temperature (SST) gradients). A simulated atmospheric cyclone evolves in a manner consistent with Eta reanalysis, and the simulated air-sea heat and momentum exchanges strongly affect the circulations in both the atmosphere and the ocean. For the simulated cyclone of 19-20 January 1998, maximum ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes first appear over the Gulf Stream in the South Atlantic Bight, and this results in rapid deepening of the cyclone off the Carolina coast. As the cyclone moves eastward, the heat flux maximum shifts into the region near Cape Hatteras and later northeast of Hatteras, where it enhances the wind locally. The oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing is closely related to the wind direction. Southerly and southwesterly winds tend to strengthen surface currents in the Gulf Stream, whereas northeasterly winds weaken the surface currents in the Gulf Stream and generate southwestward flows on the shelf. The oceanic feedback to the atmosphere moderates the cyclone strength. Compared with a simulation in which the oceanic model always passes the initial SST to the atmospheric model, the coupled simulation in which the oceanic model passes the evolving SST to the atmospheric model produces higher ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux near Gulf Stream meander troughs. This is due to wind-driven lateral shifts of the stream, which in turn enhance the local northeasterly winds. Away from the Gulf Stream the coupled simulation produces surface winds that are 5 similar to 10% weaker. Differences in the surface ocean currents between these two experiments are significant on the shelf and in the open ocean.

Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

In this study, we use IP and alkenone biomarker proxies to document the subdecadal variations of sea ice and sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic induced by the decadally paced explosive tropical volcanic eruptions of the second half of the thirteenth century. The short- and long-term evolutions of both variables were investigated by cross analysis with a simulation of the IPSL-CM5A LR model. Our results show short-term ocean cooling and sea ice expansion in response to each volcanic eruption. They also highlight that the long response time of the ocean leads to cumulative surface cooling and subsurface heat buildup due to sea ice capping. As volcanic forcing relaxes, the surface ocean rapidly warms, likely amplified by subsurface heat, and remains almost ice free for several decades