In conspectu prope totius urbis: an application of different visual methods at the ager Tarraconensis landscape

We present in this paper the results of the application of several visual methods on a group of locations, dated between VI and I centuries BC, of the ager Tarraconensis (Tarragona, Spain) a Hinterland of the roman colony of Tarraco. The difficulty in interpreting the diverse results in a combined way has been resolved by means of the use of statistical methods, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering analysis. These methods have allowed us to carry out site classifications in function of the landscape's visual structure that contains them and of the visual relationships that could be given among them.

Development of data sheets for statistical evaluation of fatigue data

To enable a mathematically and physically sound execution of the fatigue test and a correct interpretation of its results, statistical evaluation methods are used to assist in the analysis of fatigue testing data. The main objective of this work is to develop step-by-stepinstructions for statistical analysis of the laboratory fatigue data. The scopeof this project is to provide practical cases about answering the several questions raised in the treatment of test data with application of the methods and formulae in the document IIW-XIII-2138-06 (Best Practice Guide on the Statistical Analysis of Fatigue Data). Generally, the questions in the data sheets involve some aspects: estimation of necessary sample size, verification of the statistical equivalence of the collated sets of data, and determination of characteristic curves in different cases. The series of comprehensive examples which are given in this thesis serve as a demonstration of the various statistical methods to develop a sound procedure to create reliable calculation rules for the fatigue analysis.

Methods for Region Based Paper Surface Roughness Measurement

Paperin pinnan karheus on yksi paperin laatukriteereistä. Sitä mitataan fyysisestipaperin pintaa mittaavien laitteiden ja optisten laitteiden avulla. Mittaukset vaativat laboratorioolosuhteita, mutta nopeammille, suoraan linjalla tapahtuville mittauksilla olisi tarvetta paperiteollisuudessa. Paperin pinnan karheus voidaan ilmaista yhtenä näytteelle kohdistuvana karheusarvona. Tässä työssä näyte on jaettu merkitseviin alueisiin, ja jokaiselle alueelle on laskettu erillinen karheusarvo. Karheuden mittaukseen on käytetty useita menetelmiä. Yleisesti hyväksyttyä tilastollista menetelmää on käytetty tässä työssä etäisyysmuunnoksen lisäksi. Paperin pinnan karheudenmittauksessa on ollut tarvetta jakaa analysoitava näyte karheuden perusteella alueisiin. Aluejaon avulla voidaan rajata näytteestä selvästi karheampana esiintyvät alueet. Etäisyysmuunnos tuottaa alueita, joita on analysoitu. Näistä alueista on muodostettu yhtenäisiä alueita erilaisilla segmentointimenetelmillä. PNN -menetelmään (Pairwise Nearest Neighbor) ja naapurialueiden yhdistämiseen perustuvia algoritmeja on käytetty.Alueiden jakamiseen ja yhdistämiseen perustuvaa lähestymistapaa on myös tarkasteltu. Segmentoitujen kuvien validointi on yleensä tapahtunut ihmisen tarkastelemana. Tämän työn lähestymistapa on verrata yleisesti hyväksyttyä tilastollista menetelmää segmentoinnin tuloksiin. Korkea korrelaatio näiden tulosten välillä osoittaa onnistunutta segmentointia. Eri kokeiden tuloksia on verrattu keskenään hypoteesin testauksella. Työssä on analysoitu kahta näytesarjaa, joidenmittaukset on suoritettu OptiTopolla ja profilometrillä. Etäisyysmuunnoksen aloitusparametrit, joita muutettiin kokeiden aikana, olivat aloituspisteiden määrä ja sijainti. Samat parametrimuutokset tehtiin kaikille algoritmeille, joita käytettiin alueiden yhdistämiseen. Etäisyysmuunnoksen jälkeen korrelaatio oli voimakkaampaa profilometrillä mitatuille näytteille kuin OptiTopolla mitatuille näytteille. Segmentoiduilla OptiTopo -näytteillä korrelaatio parantui voimakkaammin kuin profilometrinäytteillä. PNN -menetelmän tuottamilla tuloksilla korrelaatio oli paras.

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies

Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

Hardness of FRHC-Cu determined by statistical analysis

A statistical indentation method has been employed to study the hardness value of fire-refined high conductivity copper, using nanoindentation technique. The Joslin and Oliver approach was used with the aim to separate the hardness (H) influence of copper matrix, from that of inclusions and grain boundaries. This approach relies on a large array of imprints (around 400 indentations), performed at 150 nm of indentation depth. A statistical study using a cumulative distribution function fit and Gaussian simulated distributions, exhibits that H for each phase can be extracted when the indentation depth is much lower than the size of the secondary phases. It is found that the thermal treatment produces a hardness increase, due to the partly re-dissolution of the inclusions (mainly Pb and Sn) in the matrix.

Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

The adequacy of different robust statistical tests in comparing two independent groups

In the current study, we evaluated various robust statistical methods for comparing two independent groups. Two scenarios for simulation were generated: one of equality and another of population mean differences. In each of the scenarios, 33 experimental conditions were used as a function of sample size, standard deviation and asymmetry. For each condition, 5000 replications per group were generated. The results obtained by this study show an adequate type error I rate but not a high power for the confidence intervals. In general, for the two scenarios studied (mean population differences and not mean population differences) in the different conditions analysed, the Mann-Whitney U-test demonstrated strong performance, and a little worse the t-test of Yuen-Welch.

Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors

We propose finite sample tests and confidence sets for models with unobserved and generated regressors as well as various models estimated by instrumental variables methods. The validity of the procedures is unaffected by the presence of identification problems or \"weak instruments\", so no detection of such problems is required. We study two distinct approaches for various models considered by Pagan (1984). The first one is an instrument substitution method which generalizes an approach proposed by Anderson and Rubin (1949) and Fuller (1987) for different (although related) problems, while the second one is based on splitting the sample. The instrument substitution method uses the instruments directly, instead of generated regressors, in order to test hypotheses about the \"structural parameters\" of interest and build confidence sets. The second approach relies on \"generated regressors\", which allows a gain in degrees of freedom, and a sample split technique. For inference about general possibly nonlinear transformations of model parameters, projection techniques are proposed. A distributional theory is obtained under the assumptions of Gaussian errors and strictly exogenous regressors. We show that the various tests and confidence sets proposed are (locally) \"asymptotically valid\" under much weaker assumptions. The properties of the tests proposed are examined in simulation experiments. In general, they outperform the usual asymptotic inference methods in terms of both reliability and power. Finally, the techniques suggested are applied to a model of Tobin’s q and to a model of academic performance.

Simulation-Based Finite-and Large-sample Inference Methods in Multivariate Regressions and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

In the context of multivariate regression (MLR) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SURE) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. in this paper, we propose finite-and large-sample likelihood-based test procedures for possibly non-linear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR and SURE systems.

Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.

Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

This paper employs the one-sector Real Business Cycle model as a testing ground for four different procedures to estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The procedures are: 1 ) Maximum Likelihood, with and without measurement errors and incorporating Bayesian priors, 2) Generalized Method of Moments, 3) Simulated Method of Moments, and 4) Indirect Inference. Monte Carlo analysis indicates that all procedures deliver reasonably good estimates under the null hypothesis. However, there are substantial differences in statistical and computational efficiency in the small samples currently available to estimate DSGE models. GMM and SMM appear to be more robust to misspecification than the alternative procedures. The implications of the stochastic singularity of DSGE models for each estimation method are fully discussed.

Automatic Detection and Classification of Glioma Tumors using Statistical Features

The characterization and grading of glioma tumors, via image derived features, for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment response has been an active research area in medical image computing. This paper presents a novel method for automatic detection and classification of glioma from conventional T2 weighted MR images. Automatic detection of the tumor was established using newly developed method called Adaptive Gray level Algebraic set Segmentation Algorithm (AGASA).Statistical Features were extracted from the detected tumor texture using first order statistics and gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) based second order statistical methods. Statistical significance of the features was determined by t-test and its corresponding p-value. A decision system was developed for the grade detection of glioma using these selected features and its p-value. The detection performance of the decision system was validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The diagnosis and grading of glioma using this non-invasive method can contribute promising results in medical image computing

Statistical inferences in phylogeography

In conventional phylogeographic studies, historical demographic processes are elucidated from the geographical distribution of individuals represented on an inferred gene tree. However, the interpretation of gene trees in this context can be difficult as the same demographic/geographical process can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under different demographic models. This problem has led to the emergence of many statistical methods for making phylogeographic inferences. A popular phylogeographic approach based on nested clade analysis is challenged by the fact that a certain amount of the interpretation of the data is left to the subjective choices of the user, and it has been argued that the method performs poorly in simulation studies. More rigorous statistical methods based on coalescence theory have been developed. However, these methods may also be challenged by computational problems or poor model choice. In this review, we will describe the development of statistical methods in phylogeographic analysis, and discuss some of the challenges facing these methods.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results: Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion: The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.