Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

TanDEM-X High Resolution DEMs and Their Applications to Flow Modeling

Lava flow modeling can be a powerful tool in hazard assessments; however, the ability to produce accurate models is usually limited by a lack of high resolution, up-to-date Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). This is especially obvious in places such as Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii), where active lava flows frequently alter the terrain. In this study, we use a new technique to create high resolution DEMs on Kilauea using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the TanDEM-X (TDX) satellite. We convert raw TDX SAR data into a geocoded DEM using GAMMA software [Werner et al., 2000]. This process can be completed in several hours and permits creation of updated DEMs as soon as new TDX data are available. To test the DEMs, we use the Harris and Rowland [2001] FLOWGO lava flow model combined with the Favalli et al. [2005] DOWNFLOW model to simulate the 3-15 August 2011 eruption on Kilauea's East Rift Zone. Results were compared with simulations using the older, lower resolution 2000 SRTM DEM of Hawaii. Effusion rates used in the model are derived from MODIS thermal infrared satellite imagery. FLOWGO simulations using the TDX DEM produced a single flow line that matched the August 2011 flow almost perfectly, but could not recreate the entire flow field due to the relatively high DEM noise level. The issues with short model flow lengths can be resolved by filtering noise from the DEM. Model simulations using the outdated SRTM DEM produced a flow field that followed a different trajectory to that observed. Numerous lava flows have been emplaced at Kilauea since the creation of the SRTM DEM, leading the model to project flow lines in areas that have since been covered by fresh lava flows. These results show that DEMs can quickly become outdated on active volcanoes, but our new technique offers the potential to produce accurate, updated DEMs for modeling lava flow hazards.

A systematized workflow for assessing land resources using readily available spatial datasets

Land degradation as well as land conservation maps at a (sub-) national scale are critical for pro-ject planning for sustainable land management. It has long been recognized that online accessible and low-cost raster data sets (e.g. Landsat imagery, SRTM-DEM’s) provide a readily available basis for land resource assessments for developing countries. However, choice of spatial, tempo-ral and spectral resolution of such data is often limited. Furthermore, while local expert knowl-edge on land degradation processes is abundant, difficulties are often encountered when linking existing knowledge with modern approaches including GIS and RS. The aim of this study was to develop an easily applicable, standardized workflow for preliminary spatial assessments of land degradation and conservation, which also allows the integration of existing expert knowledge. The core of the developed method consists of a workflow for rule-based land resource assess-ment. In a systematic way, this workflow leads from predefined land degradation and conserva-tion classes to field indicators, to suitable spatial proxy data, and finally to a set of rules for clas-sification of spatial datasets. Pre-conditions are used to narrow the area of interest. Decision tree models are used for integrating the different rules. It can be concluded that the workflow presented assists experts from different disciplines in col-laboration GIS/RS specialists in establishing a preliminary model for assessing land degradation and conservation in a spatially explicit manner. The workflow provides support when linking field indicators and spatial datasets, and when determining field indicators for groundtruthing.

(Appendix) Recent surface areas and historical lengths of glaciers from Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego, South America

Fluctuations in the length of 72 glaciers in the Northern and Southern Patagonia Icefield (NPI and SPI, respectively) and the Cordillera Darwin Icefield (CDI) were estimated between 1945 and 2005. The information obtained from historical maps based on 1945 aerial photographs was compared to ASTER and Landsat satellite images and to information found in the literature. The majority of glaciers have retreated considerably, with maximum values of 12.2 km for Marinelli Glacier in the CDI, 11.6 km for O'Higgins Glacier in the SPI and 5.7 km for San Rafael Glacier in the NPI. Among the 20 glaciers that have retreated the most relative to their size, small (less than 50 km**2) and medium (between 50 and 200 km**2) glaciers are the most affected. However, no direct relation between glacier retreat and size was found for the 72 glaciers studied. The highest percentage retreat in the CDI was by the CDI-03 Glacier (37.9%) and Marinelli Glacier (37.6%). In the SPI, relative retreats were heterogeneous and fluctuated between 27.2% (Amelia Glacier) and 0.4% (Viedma Glacier). In the NPI, relative retreat was very high for Strindberg and Cachet glaciers (35.9% and 27.6%, respectively) but for the remaining glaciers in this icefield it ranged between 11.8% (Piscis Glacier) and 3.6% (San Quintin Glacier). In addition to surface area, the surface slope (calculated on the basis of the DEM SRTM) was also related to the relative retreat and no straightforward relation was found. From a global point of view, we suggest that glacier retreat in the region is controlled firstly by atmospheric warming, as it has been reported in this area. Besides the general increase in temperature observed, no signal of a geographical pattern for the fluctuations in glacier length was found. Consequently, glaciers appear to initially react to local conditions most probably induced by their exposition, geometry and hypsometry. The heterogeneity of rates of retreat suggests that differences in basin geometry, glacier dynamics and response time are key features to explain fluctuations of each glacier.

Propagation of DEM Varying Accuracy into Terrain-Based Analysis.

Análisis de precisión en modelos digitales de elevación globales. ABSTRACT: Terrain-Based Analysis results in derived products from an input DEM and these products are needed to perform various analyses. To efficiently use these products in decision-making, their accuracies must be estimated systematically. This paper proposes a procedure to assess the accuracy of these derived products, by calculating the accuracy of the slope dataset and its significance, taking as an input the accuracy of the DEM. Based on the output of previously published research on modeling the relative accuracy of a DEM, specifically ASTER and SRTM DEMs with Lebanon coverage as the area of study, analysis have showed that ASTER has a low significance in the majority of the area where only 2% of the modeled terrain has 50% or more significance. On the other hand, SRTM showed a better significance, where 37% of the modeled terrain has 50% or more significance. Statistical analysis deduced that the accuracy of the slope dataset, calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, is highly correlated to the accuracy of the input DEM. However, this correlation becomes lower between the slope accuracy and the slope significance, whereas it becomes much higher between the modeled slope and the slope significance.

Assinatura estrutural e geofísica da porção norte (fronteira Ceará-Piauí) no lineamento transbrasiliano: reativação na bacia do Parnaíba

The Transbrasiliano Lineament is a major shear zone trending NE-SW, related to the Brasiliano orogeny and evolved through high to low temperature stages. In this study, the structural and geophysical signature of the northern segment of Transbrasiliano Lineament was studied in its northern border, between Ceará and Piauí states, involving the Brasiliano mylonite zone, the Jaibaras Graben and reactivations affecting the sedimentary sequences post-ordovician of Parnaíba Basin. In the literature, is commonly the phanerozoic reactivation of this structure referred, generating several late Brasiliano grabens predating the paleozoic Parnaíba syneclises, like the Jaibaras Graben. Faults that cut the stratigraphic units of the Parnaíba Basin along the entire length of the Transbrasiliano Lineament express its reactivation during younger events. The magnetic anomaly field reduced to the pole map exhibit anomalies NE-trending, interpreted as the signature of the Transbrasiliano Lineament (and Brasiliano structures of the Borborema Province) in its high-temperature expression. The Jaibaras Graben is marked by a straight anomalous track with high magnetic susceptibility (interpreted as a prevalence of ferromagnesian rocks, probably volcanic), apparently without significant continuity in the substrate of Parnaíba Basin. The geometric and kinematic analysis of the structures in the study area, using remote sensing and field data, led to the characterization of four deformation phases brittle the ductilebrittle Dn, D1, D2 and D3. The Dn deformation phase of ediacaran-cambrian age, occurs exclusively in the Jaibaras Graben, with the development of comparatively higher temperature (as regards to younger events) ductile-brittle structures. D1, D2 and D3 deformation phases affect both the Jaibaras Graben as well as the paleozoic sequences of the northeastern edge of Parnaíba Basin, generating structures developed at lower temperatures, basically brittle/cataclastic. The SRTM image analysis allowed mapping different NE, NW and E-W trending lineaments in Parnaíba Basin, whose correlation with mesoscopic structures is discussed in terms of the reactivation of Transbrasiliano Lineament in association with the stages of general Atlantic opening and separation between South America and Africa, or even the distal orogenic events in Paleozoic.

Evolução morfotectônica da porção centro-sul da Bacia Paraíba

Recent endogenous processes provide dynamic movements in the lithosphere and generate the varied forms of relief, even in areas of passive continental margins, such as the research area of this work located in northeastern Brazil. The reactivation of Precambrian basement structures, after the breakup between South America and Africa in the Cretaceous played an important role in the evolution of basins, which provided generated forms of relief. These morphodynamic characteristics can be easily observed in marginal basins that exhibit strong evidence fault reactivations. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of morphotectonic processes in the landscape structuring of Paraíba Basin. Therefore, we used aeromagnetic, high–resolution images of the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission–SRTM, structural geological data, deep well data and geological field data. Based on the results of the data was observed that some preexisting structures in the crystalline basement coincide with magnetic and topographic lineaments interpreted as fault reactivation of the Post–Miocene units in the Paraíba Basin. Faults that offset lithostratigraphic units provided evidence that tectonic activity associated with the deposition and erosion in the Paraíba Basin occurred from Cretaceous to the Quaternary. The neotectonic activity that occurred in Paraíba Basin was able to influence the deposition of sedimentary units and landforms. It indicates that the deposition of post–Cretaceous units was influenced by reactivation of Precambrian basement structures in this part of the Brazilian continental margin.

Geochemical parameters of sediments and waters in areas of ocean barrier zones

Geochemical barrier zones play an important role in determining various physical systems and characteristics of oceans, e.g. hydrodynamics, salinity, temperature and light. In the book each of more than 30 barrier zones are illustrated and defined by physical, chemical and biological parameters. Among the topics discussed are processes of inflow, transformation and precipitation of the sedimentary layer of the open oceans and more restricted areas such as the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas.

A suite of global, cross-scale topographic variables for environmental and biodiversity modeling, links to files in GeoTIFF format

Topographic variation, the spatial variation in elevation and terrain features, underpins a myriad of patterns and processes in geography and ecology and is key to understanding the variation of life on the planet. The characterization of this variation is scale-dependent, i.e. it varies with the distance over which features are assessed and with the spatial grain (grid cell resolution) of analysis. A fully standardized and global multivariate product of different terrain features has the potential to support many large-scale basic research and analytical applications, however to date, such technique is unavailable. Here we used the digital elevation model products of global 250 m GMTED and near-global 90 m SRTM to derive a suite of topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, eastness, northness, roughness, terrain roughness index, topographic position index, vector ruggedness measure, profile and tangential curvature, and 10 geomorphological landform classes. We aggregated each variable to 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 km spatial grains using several aggregation approaches (median, average, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, percent cover, count, majority, Shannon Index, entropy, uniformity). While a global cross-correlation underlines the high similarity of many variables, a more detailed view in four mountain regions reveals local differences, as well as scale variations in the aggregated variables at different spatial grains. All newly-developed variables are available for download at http://www.earthenv.org and can serve as a basis for standardized hydrological, environmental and biodiversity modeling at a global extent.

Geotecnologia aplicada na análise de bacias hidrográficas e rede de drenagem: estudo das bacias hidrográficas do Murucutu e Aurá, Belém, Pará.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar variáveis físicas das bacias do rio Murucutu e rio Aurá (BHMA) usando geotecnologias para subsidiar o uso e a conservação desses recursos hídricos. Foi utilizada imagem do ?Shuttle Radar Topography Mission? (SRTM) na modelagem e identificação de características físicas, bem como o uso de sistema geográfico de informação (SIG), técnicas de geoprocessamento, quantificação de áreas das bacias, redes de drenagens, hierarquias fluviais, área de influência de nascentes. As análises dos dados foram realizadas na ferramenta Q.Gis 2.8, versão ?Wien?, integradas ao programa ?Terrain Analysis Using Digital Elevation Models? (TauDEM). Os resultados evidenciaram que as bacias do rio Murucutu e do rio Aurá possuem 37% de área antropizadas. A bacia do rio Aurá possui maior cobertura florestal do que a bacia do rio Murucutu. A ordem hierárquica do rio Aurá é de 5°ordem e do Murucutu é de 4ºordem, evidenciando que o Aurá é mais extenso com maior ramificação dos canais em relação ao Murucutu. 34% das nascentes estão em áreas urbanas na bacia do rio Murucutu. Conclui-se que com a análise melhora-se o entendimento dos elementos físicos, em especial ligados à hidrografia como também, desenvolve-se um produto de importância substancial para estudos morfométricos, principalmente para subsidiar o gerenciamento e outorgas do direito de uso prioritários da água, controle de enchentes, potencial de abastecimento hídrico, vulnerabilidade ao processo erosivo, dinâmica de transporte de poluentes, principais vias de contaminação hídrica, entre outras aplicações diretas.

Zonas úmidas nas bacias dos rios Murucutu e Aurá para identificar áreas suscetíveis a contaminantes.

O objetivo neste trabalho foi identificar zonar úmidas nas bacias hidrográficas dos rios Murucutu e Aurá (BHMA) para identificar áreas suscetíveis a contaminantes. Técnicas de manipulação e análises de dados matriciais de Modelo Digital de Elevação (MDE) permitiram a delimitação de áreas úmidas em decorrência de enchente e/ou alagamento. Características físicas da bacia (declividade, uso e cobertura do solo e altimetria) foram usadas em álgebra de mapas em Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG). A partir de critérios de ponderação foram gerados novos planos de informação (PIs). Fez-se a reclassificação nos planos de informação gerados e atribui-se pesos para aplicação do método de Análise Hierárquica Ponderada (AHP). Os pressupostos metodológicos de geomática possibilitaram a delimitação de zonas com muito alta e alta umidade. Os resultados apontaram que cerca de 56% dessas bacias estão suscetíveis a contaminantes, principalmente pelo chorume que apresenta pode ser transportado pelo lixão do Aurá. Conclui-se que como mais da metade da BHMA possui zonas com muito alta e alta umidade, os efeitos decorrentes de contaminantes pode ser intensificado em eventos de chuvas extremas e marés altas. O ponto de conexão entre as duas bacias evidencia que o transporte de contaminantes pode ameaçar os mananciais de Bolonha e Água Preta que abastecem Belém e Ananindeua.