Communicating uncertainties in sea surface temperature

A project on sea surface temperature is generating new climate data records from satellite observations. The data are independent of in situ observations and are harmonious across satellite sensors to maximize stability and have realistic, context-sensitive uncertainty estimates at all spatial and temporal scales. The project, part of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (SST CCI), now seeks to establish a useful method for communicating uncertainty in sea surface temperatures. This goal was the impetus for a workshop held in November 2014 in Exeter in the United Kingdom, summarised in this article.

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1, 2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established3, 4, 5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability6, 7, 8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude1, 6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide1, 2, 3, 4, 9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database10, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

Independent uncertainty estimates for coefficient based sea surface temperature retrieval from the Along-Trck Scanning Radiometer instruments

We establish a methodology for calculating uncertainties in sea surface temperature estimates from coefficient based satellite retrievals. The uncertainty estimates are derived independently of in-situ data. This enables validation of both the retrieved SSTs and their uncertainty estimate using in-situ data records. The total uncertainty budget is comprised of a number of components, arising from uncorrelated (eg. noise), locally systematic (eg. atmospheric), large scale systematic and sampling effects (for gridded products). The importance of distinguishing these components arises in propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales. We apply the method to SST data retrieved from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and validate the results for two different SST retrieval algorithms, both at a per pixel level and for gridded data. We find good agreement between our estimated uncertainties and validation data. This approach to calculating uncertainties in SST retrievals has a wider application to data from other instruments and retrieval of other geophysical variables.

Sampling uncertainty in gridded sea surface temperature products and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) data

Sea surface temperature (SST) data are often provided as gridded products, typically at resolutions of order 0.05 degrees from satellite observations to reduce data volume at the request of data users and facilitate comparison against other products or models. Sampling uncertainty is introduced in gridded products where the full surface area of the ocean within a grid cell cannot be fully observed because of cloud cover. In this paper we parameterise uncertainties in SST as a function of the percentage of clear-sky pixels available and the SST variability in that subsample. This parameterisation is developed from Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) data, but is applicable to all gridded L3U SST products at resolutions of 0.05-0.1 degrees, irrespective of instrument and retrieval algorithm, provided that instrument noise propagated into the SST is accounted for. We also calculate the sampling uncertainty of ~0.04 K in Global Area Coverage (GAC) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) products, using related methods.

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.

Validating NCAR-CCSM last glacial maximum sea surface temperature in the tropical and South Atlantic with proxy-data

Last Glacial Maximum simulated sea surface temperature from the Paleo-Climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Coupled Climate Model (NCAR-CCSM) are compared with available reconstructions and data-based products in the tropical and south Atlantic region. Model results are compared to data proxies based on the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface product (MARGO). Results show that the model sea surface temperature is not consistent with the proxy-data in all of the region of interest. Discrepancies are found in the eastern, equatorial and in the high-latitude South Atlantic. The model overestimates the cooling in the southern South Atlantic (near 50 degrees S) shown by the proxy-data. Near the equator, model and proxies are in better agreement. In the eastern part of the equatorial basin the model underestimates the cooling shown by all proxies. A northward shift in the position of the subtropical convergence zone in the simulation suggests a compression or/and an equatorward shift of the subtropical gyre at the surface, consistent with what is observed in the proxy reconstruction. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Spatial Patterns in Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Physical forcing and biological response within the California Current System (CCS) are highly variable over a wide range of scales. Satellite remote sensing offers the only feasible means of quantifying this variability over the full extent of the CCS. Using six years (1997-2003) of daily SST and chlorophyll imagery, we map the spatial dependence of dominant temporal variability at resolutions sufficient to identify recurrent mesoscale circulation and local pattern associated with coastal topography. Here we describe mean seasonal cycles and interannual variation; intraseasonal variability is left to a companion paper ( K. R. Legaard and A. C. Thomas, manuscript in preparation, 2006). Coastal upwelling dictates seasonality along north-central California, where weak cycles of SST fluctuate between spring minima and late summer maxima and chlorophyll peaks in early summer. Off northern California, chlorophyll maxima are bounded offshore by the seasonally recurrent upwelling jet. Seasonal cycles differ across higher latitudes and in the midlatitude Southern California Bight, where upwelling winds are less vigorous and/or persistent. Seasonality along south-central Baja is strongly affected by processes other than upwelling, despite year-round upwelling-favorable winds. Interannual variation is generally dominated by El Nino and La Nina conditions. Interannual SST variance is greatest along south-central Baja, although interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total variance inshore along southern Oregon and much of California. Patterns of interannual chlorophyll variance are consistent with dominant forcing through the widespread depression and elevation of the nutricline during El Nino and La Nina, respectively. Interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total chlorophyll variance offshore.

Spatial Patterns of Intraseasonal Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Six years of daily satellite data are used to quantify and map intraseasonal variability of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current. We define intraseasonal variability as temporal variation remaining after removal of interannual variability and stationary seasonal cycles. Semivariograms are used to quantify the temporal structure of residual time series. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of semivariograms calculated across the region isolate dominant scales and corresponding spatial patterns of intraseasonal variability. The mode 1 EOFs for both chlorophyll and SST semivariograms indicate a dominant timescale of similar to 60 days. Spatial amplitudes and patterns of intraseasonal variance derived from mode 1 suggest dominant forcing of intraseasonal variability through distortion of large scale chlorophyll and SST gradients by mesoscale circulation. Intraseasonal SST variance is greatest off southern Baja and along southern Oregon and northern California. Chlorophyll variance is greatest over the shelf and slope, with elevated values closely confined to the Baja shelf and extending farthest from shore off California and the Pacific Northwest. Intraseasonal contributions to total SST variability are strongest near upwelling centers off southern Oregon and northern California, where seasonal contributions are weak. Intraseasonal variability accounts for the majority of total chlorophyll variance in most inshore areas save for southern Baja, where seasonal cycles dominate. Contributions of higher EOF modes to semivariogram structure indicate the degree to which intraseasonal variability is shifted to shorter timescales in certain areas. Comparisons of satellite-derived SST semivariograms to those calculated from co-located and concurrent buoy SST time series show similar features.

Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

In this study, we use IP and alkenone biomarker proxies to document the subdecadal variations of sea ice and sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic induced by the decadally paced explosive tropical volcanic eruptions of the second half of the thirteenth century. The short- and long-term evolutions of both variables were investigated by cross analysis with a simulation of the IPSL-CM5A LR model. Our results show short-term ocean cooling and sea ice expansion in response to each volcanic eruption. They also highlight that the long response time of the ocean leads to cumulative surface cooling and subsurface heat buildup due to sea ice capping. As volcanic forcing relaxes, the surface ocean rapidly warms, likely amplified by subsurface heat, and remains almost ice free for several decades

Geochemistry and sea-surface temperature reconstruction for sediment cores of the Iberian Margin

Biogenic records of the marine palaeoproductivity (carbonates, organic carbon, and C37 alkenones) and the molecular stratigraphy of past sea surface temperatures (SSTs; UK'37) were studied at high resolution in two cores of the Iberian Margin. The comparison of these records indicates that the oceanographic conditions switched abruptly during the past 160 kyr between three kinds of regimes. A first regime with high (17-22°C) SST and low productivity typifies the interglacial periods, marine isotopic stages (MIS) 5 and 1. Several periods during MIS 6, 2, and the terminations II and I are characterised by about 4-5°C colder SST and a higher organic matter accumulation, both of which define the second regime. This anticorrelation between SST and marine productivity suggests that these variations are related to the intensity of the coastal upwelling. By contrast with this upwelling behaviour, extremely low biological productivity and very cold SST (6-12°C) occurred during short phases of glacial MIS 6, 4, and 2, and as abrupt events (~1 kyr or less) during MIS 3. The three oceanographic regimes are consistent with micropalaeontological changes in the same cores based on foraminifera and diatoms. The general trend of these hydrologic changes follows the long-term glacial/interglacial cycle, but the millennium scale variability is clearly related to Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. Strengthening of the upwelling corresponds probably to an intensification of the subtropical atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic which was influenced by the presence of continental ice sheets. However, extreme glacial conditions due to massive discharges of icebergs interrupted the upwelling. Interestingly, both terminations II and I coincided with strong but transient intensification of the upwelling.