Estimation of a Regression Function on a Point Process and its Application to Financial Ruin Risk Forecast

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G55; secondary 60G25.

Retinal vascular function and cardiovascular risk factors

The current platform of conventional cardiovascular risk assessments tends to forsake the importance of endothelial function - a key biological mechanism by which cardiovascular risk factors exert their propensity for adverse vascular events. Moreover, the presence and severity of endothelial dysfunction in ‘low-risk’ individuals suggests considerable variability in pre-clinical risk that could potentially be detected well before the onset of disease. The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the presence and impact of retinal vascular dysfunction, as a barometer of endothelial function, in otherwise healthy individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors, but low to moderate cardiovascular risk. Systemic circulatory influences on retinal vascular function were also evaluated. The principle sections and findings of this work are: 1. Ageing effect on retinal vascular function • In low-risk individuals, there are age differences in retinal vascular function throughout the entire functional response curve for arteries and veins. Gender differences mainly affect the dilatory phase and are only present in young individuals. 2. Retinal vascular function in healthy individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease • In low-risk individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease, impairments in microvascular function at the retinal level correlate with established plasma markers for cardiovascular risk. 3. Ethnic differences in retinal vascular function • When compared to age-matched White Europeans, in low-risk middle-aged South Asians, there are impairments in retinal vascular function that correlate with established cardiovascular risk indicators. 4. Systemic circulatory influences on retinalµvascular function • Systemic antioxidant capacity (redox index) and plasma markers for cardiovascular risk (lipids) influence retinal microvascular function at both arterial and venous levels. 5. Retinal vascular function in individuals with obstructive sleep apnoea: a preliminarystudy • Patients with moderate to severe sleep apnoea exhibit attenuated retinal vascular function.

Early growth characteristics and the risk of reduced lung function and asthma : a meta-analysis of 25,000 children

Peer reviewed

Early growth characteristics and the risk of reduced lung function and asthma : a meta-analysis of 25,000 children

Peer reviewed

A Rare Loss-of-Function Variant in Scavenger Receptor Class B Type I (SCARB1) Raises HDL Cholesterol and Increases Risk of Coronary Disease

Scavenger receptor BI (SR-BI) is the major receptor for high-density lipoprotein (HDL)
cholesterol (HDL-C). In humans, high amounts of HDL-C in plasma are associated with a
lower risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Mice that have depleted Scarb1 (SR-BI
knockout mice) have markedly elevated HDL-C levels but, paradoxically, increased
atherosclerosis. The impact of SR-BI on HDL metabolism and CHD risk in humans remains
unclear. Through targeted sequencing of coding regions of lipid-modifying genes in 328
individuals with extremely high plasma HDL-C levels, we identified a homozygote for a lossof-function
variant, in which leucine replaces proline 376 (P376L), in SCARB1, the gene
encoding SR-BI. The P376L variant impairs posttranslational processing of SR-BI and
abrogates selective HDL cholesterol uptake in transfected cells, in hepatocyte-like cells
derived from induced pluripotent stem cells from the homozygous subject, and in mice.
Large population-based studies revealed that subjects who are heterozygous carriers of
the P376L variant have significantly increased levels of plasma HDL-C. P376L carriers have
a profound HDL-related phenotype and an increased risk of CHD (odds ratio = 1.79, which is
statistically significant).

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

Tadalafil-induced Improvement In Left Ventricular Diastolic Function In Resistant Hypertension.

Left ventricular hypertrophy and diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) remain highly frequent markers of cardiac damage and risk of progression to symptomatic heart failure, especially in resistant hypertension (RHTN). We have previously demonstrated that administration of sildenafil in hypertensive rats improves LVDD, restoring phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE-5) inhibition in cardiac myocytes. We hypothesized that the long-acting PDE-5 inhibitor tadalafil may be clinically useful in improving LVDD in RHTN independently of blood pressure (BP) reduction. A single blinded, placebo-controlled, crossover study enrolled 19 patients with both RHTN and LVDD. Firstly, subjects received tadalafil (20 mg) for 14 days and after a 2-week washout period, they received placebo orally for 14 days. Patients were evaluated by office BP and ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), endothelial function (FMD), echocardiography, plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP-32), cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) and nitrite levels. No significant differences were detected in BP measurements. Remarkably, at least four echocardiographic parameters related with diastolic function improved accompanied by decrease in BNP-32 in tadalafil use. Although increasing cGMP, tadalafil did not change endothelial function or nitrites. There were no changes in those parameters after placebo. The current findings suggest that tadalafil improves LV relaxation through direct effects PDE-5-mediated in the cardiomyocytes with potential benefit as an adjunct to treat symptomatic subjects with LVDD such as RHTN patients.

Myocardial Extracellular Volume Expansion And The Risk Of Recurrent Atrial Fibrillation After Pulmonary Vein Isolation.

This study tested whether myocardial extracellular volume (ECV) is increased in patients with hypertension and atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing pulmonary vein isolation and whether there is an association between ECV and post-procedural recurrence of AF. Hypertension is associated with myocardial fibrosis, an increase in ECV, and AF. Data linking these findings are limited. T1 measurements pre-contrast and post-contrast in a cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) study provide a method for quantification of ECV. Consecutive patients with hypertension and recurrent AF referred for pulmonary vein isolation underwent a contrast CMR study with measurement of ECV and were followed up prospectively for a median of 18 months. The endpoint of interest was late recurrence of AF. Patients had elevated left ventricular (LV) volumes, LV mass, left atrial volumes, and increased ECV (patients with AF, 0.34 ± 0.03; healthy control patients, 0.29 ± 0.03; p < 0.001). There were positive associations between ECV and left atrial volume (r = 0.46, p < 0.01) and LV mass and a negative association between ECV and diastolic function (early mitral annular relaxation [E'], r = -0.55, p < 0.001). In the best overall multivariable model, ECV was the strongest predictor of the primary outcome of recurrent AF (hazard ratio: 1.29; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 to 1.44; p < 0.0001) and the secondary composite outcome of recurrent AF, heart failure admission, and death (hazard ratio: 1.35; 95% confidence interval: 1.21 to 1.51; p < 0.0001). Each 10% increase in ECV was associated with a 29% increased risk of recurrent AF. In patients with AF and hypertension, expansion of ECV is associated with diastolic function and left atrial remodeling and is a strong independent predictor of recurrent AF post-pulmonary vein isolation.

Análise do desempenho muscular do quadríceps e dos isquiotibiais em função da série temporal e da amplitude de movimento de atletas amadoras de futsal feminino = : Analysis of muscle performance of the quadriceps and hamstrings as a function of the times series and range of motion of amateurfemale futsal athletes

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Self-perception and malocclusion and their relation to oral appearance and function

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between malocclusion and self-perception of oral appearance/function, in 12/15-year-old Brazilian adolescents. The cluster sample consisted of 717 teenagers attending 24 urban public (n=611) and 5 rural public (n=107) schools in Maringá/PR. Malocclusion was measured using the Dental Aesthetic Index (DAI), in accordance with WHO recommendations. A parental questionnaire was applied to collect information on esthetic perception level and oral variables related to oral health. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. Multiple logistic regression confirmed that for 12-year-old, missing teeth (OR=2.865) and presence of openbite (open occlusal relationship) (OR=2.865) were risk indicators for speech capability. With regard to 15-year-old, presence of mandibular overjet (horizontal overlap) (OR=4.016) was a risk indicator for speech capability and molar relationship (OR=1.661) was a risk indicator for chewing capability. The impact of malocclusion on adolescents' life was confirmed in this study. Speech and chewing capability were associated with orthodontic deviations, which should be taken into consideration in oral health planning, to identify risk groups and improve community health services.

Eccentric Hip Muscle Function in Females With and Without Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome

Context: Patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFPS) is a common knee condition in athletes. Recently, researchers have indicated that factors proximal to the knee, including hip muscle weakness and motor control impairment, contribute to the development of PFPS. However, no investigators have evaluated eccentric hip muscle function in people with PFPS. Objective: To compare the eccentric hip muscle function between females with PFPS and a female control group. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Musculoskeletal laboratory. Patients or Other Participants: Two groups of females were studied: a group with PFPS (n = 10) and a group with no history of lower extremity injury or surgery (n = 10). Intervention(s): Eccentric torque of the hip musculature was evaluated on an isokinetic dynamometer. Main Outcome Measure(s): Eccentric hip abduction, adduction, and external and internal rotation peak torque were measured and expressed as a percentage of body mass (Nm/kg x 100). We also evaluated eccentric hip adduction to abduction and internal to external rotation torque ratios. The peak torque value of 5 maximal eccentric contractions was used for calculation. Two-tailed, independent-samples t tests were used to compare torque results between groups. Results: Participants with PFPS exhibited much lower eccentric hip abduction (t(18) = -2.917, P = .008) and adduction (t(18) = -2.764, P =.009) peak torque values than did their healthy counterparts. No differences in eccentric hip external (t(18) = 0.45, P = .96) or internal (t(18) = -0.742, P =.47) rotation peak torque values were detected between the groups. The eccentric hip adduction to abduction torque ratio was much higher in the PFPS group than in the control group (t(18) = 2.113, P = .04), but we found no difference in the eccentric hip internal to external rotation torque ratios between the 2 groups (t(18) = -0.932, P = .36). Conclusions: Participants with PFPS demonstrated lower eccentric hip abduction and adduction peak torque and higher eccentric adduction to abduction torque ratios when compared with control participants. Thus, clinicians should consider eccentric hip abduction strengthening exercises when developing rehabilitation programs for females with PFPS.

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

Altered left ventricular diastolic function in subjects with spinal cord injury

Study design: This is cross-sectional study. Objectives: The aim of this study is to investigate the cardiac structure and function of subjects with spinal cord injury (SCI) and the impact of metabolic, hemodynamic and inflammatory factors on these parameters. Setting: Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Sixty-five nondiabetic, nonhypertensive, sedentary, nonsmoker men (34 with SCI and 31 healthy subjects) were evaluated by medical history, anthropometry, laboratory tests, analysis of hemodynamic and inflammatory parameters and echocardiography. Results: Subjects with SCI had lower systolic blood pressure and higher levels of C-reactive protein and tumor necrosis factor receptors than the healthy ones. Echocardiography data showed that the SCI group presented similar left ventricular (LV) structural and systolic parameters, but lower initial diastolic velocity (Em) (9.2 +/- 0.5 vs 12.3 +/- 0.5 cm s(-1); P<0.001) and higher peak early inflow velocity (E)/Em ratio (7.7 +/- 0.5 vs 6.1 +/- 0.3; P = 0.009) compared with the able-bodied group, even after adjustment for systolic blood pressure and C-reactive protein levels. Furthermore, injured subjects with E/Em >8 had lower peak spectral longitudinal contraction (Sm) (9.0 +/- 0.7 vs 11.6 +/- 0.4cm s(-1); P<0.001) and cardiac output (4.2 +/- 0.2 vs 5.0 +/- 0.21 min(-1); P = 0.029), as well as higher relative wall thickness (0.38 +/- 0.01 vs 0.35 +/- 0.01; P = 0.005), than individuals with SCI with E/Em<8, but similar age, body mass index, blood pressure, injury level, metabolic parameters and inflammatory marker levels. Conclusion: Subjects with SCI presented impaired LV diastolic function in comparison with able-bodied ones. Moreover, worse LV diastolic function was associated with a pattern of LV concentric remodeling and subclinical decreases in systolic function among injured subjects. Overall, these findings might contribute to explain the increased cardiovascular risk reported for individuals with SCI. Spinal Cord (2011) 49, 65-69; doi: 10.1038/sc.2010.88; published online 27 July 2010

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Brazil nut ingestion increased plasma selenium but had minimal effects on lipids, apolipoproteins, and high-density lipoprotein function in human subjects

The Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa) of the Amazon region is consumed worldwide. It is rich in both monounsaturated fatty acids and polyunsaturated fatty acids and is known for its high selenium content. This study tested the hypothesis whether the consumption of this nut could affect the plasma lipids and apolipoproteins and some functional properties of the antiatherogenic high-density lipoprotein (HDL). Fifteen normolipidemic subjects aged 27.3 +/- 3.9 years and with body mass index of 23.8 +/- 2.8 kg/m(2) consumed 45 g of Brazil nuts per day during a 15-day period. On days 0 and 15, blood was collected for biochemical analysis, determination of HDL particle size, paraoxonase 1 activity, and lipid transfer from a lipoprotein-like nanoparticle to the HDL fraction. Brazil nut ingestion did not alter HDL, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triacylglycerols, apolipoprotein A-1, or apolipoprotein B concentrations. HDL particle diameter and the activity of antioxidative paraoxonase 1, mostly found in the HDL fraction, Were also unaffected. Supplementation increased the reception of cholesteryl esters (P <.05) by the HDL yet did not alter the reception of phospholipids, free cholesterol, or triacylglycerols. As expected, plasma selenium was significantly increased. However, the consumption of Brazil nuts for short duration by normolipidemic subjects in comparable amounts to those tested for other nuts did not alter serum lipid profile. The only alteration in HDL function was the increase in cholesteryl ester transfer. This latter finding may be beneficial because it would improve the nonatherogenic reverse cholesterol transport pathway. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.