Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

A Web GIS Decision Support System For Coastal Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.

Chapter III: Management of cardiovascular risk factors and medical therapy

Critical limb ischaemia (CLI) is a particularly severe manifestation of lower limb atherosclerosis posing a major threat to both limb and life of affected patients. Besides arterial revascularisation, risk-factor modification and administration of antiplatelet therapy is a major goal in the treatment of CLI patients. Key elements of cardiovascular risk management are smoking cessation and treatment of hyperlipidaemia with dietary modification or statins. Moreover, arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus should be adequately treated. In CLI patients not suitable for arterial revascularisation or subsequent to unsuccessful revascularisation, parenteral prostanoids may be considered. CLI patients undergoing surgical revascularisation should be treated with beta blockers. At present, neither gene nor stem-cell therapy can be recommended outside clinical trials. Of note, walking exercise is contraindicated in CLI patients due to the risk of worsening pre-existing or causing new ischaemic wounds. CLI patients are oftentimes medically frail and exhibit significant comorbidities. Co-existing coronary heart and carotid as well as renal artery disease should be managed according to current guidelines. Considering the above-mentioned treatment goals, interdisciplinary treatment approaches for CLI patients are warranted. Aim of the present manuscript is to discuss currently existing evidence for both the management of cardiovascular risk factors and treatment of co-existing disease and to deduct specific treatment recommendations.

Management, risk factors and outcome of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulae: a single-center experience

The role of endovascular interventions in managing dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) is increasing. Furthermore, in patients with aggressive DAVFs, different surgical interventions are required for complete obliteration or disconnection. Our objective was to evaluate the management of patients with intracranial DAVFs treated in our institution to identify the parameters that may help guide the long-term management of these lesions.

Law and science: risk assessment and risk management in the WTO agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures

Assessing and managing risks relating to the consumption of food stuffs for humans and to the environment has been one of the most complex legal issues in WTO law, ever since the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was adopted at the end of the Uruguay Round and entered into force in 1995. The problem was expounded in a number of cases. Panels and the Appellate Body adopted different philosophies in interpreting the agreement and the basic concept of risk assessment as defined in Annex A para. 4 of the Agreement. Risk assessment entails fundamental question on law and science. Different interpretations reflect different underlying perceptions of science and its relationship to the law. The present thesis supported by the Swiss National Research Foundation undertakes an in-depth analysis of these underlying perceptions. The author expounds the essence and differences of positivism and relativism in philosophy and natural sciences. He clarifies the relationship of fundamental concepts such as risk, hazards and probability. This investigation is a remarkable effort on the part of lawyer keen to learn more about the fundamentals based upon which the law – often unconsciously – is operated by the legal profession and the trade community. Based upon these insights, he turns to a critical assessment of jurisprudence both of panels and the Appellate Body. Extensively referring and discussing the literature, he deconstructs findings and decisions in light of implied and assumed underlying philosophies and perceptions as to the relationship of law and science, in particular in the field of food standards. Finding that both positivism and relativism does not provide adequate answers, the author turns critical rationalism and applies the methodologies of falsification developed by Karl R. Popper. Critical rationalism allows combining discourse in science and law and helps preparing the ground for a new approach to risk assessment and risk management. Linking the problem to the doctrine of multilevel governance the author develops a theory allocating risk assessment to international for a while leaving the matter of risk management to national and democratically accountable government. While the author throughout the thesis questions the possibility of separating risk assessment and risk management, the thesis offers new avenues which may assist in structuring a complex and difficult problem

Management of Joint Research Activities within ERA-ARD: Guidelines for ARD programme planning, monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment

The present document has been elaborated in the context of the ERA-ARD project “The Agricultural Research for Development (ARD) dimension of the European Research Area (ERA) “. It is based on work done within Task 3.2 to identify a set of common or compatible methodologies for ARD planning, monitoring and evaluation and impact assessment. This set should serve as a guide for the management of joint ARD activities that are presently developed within the framework of the ERA-ARD project.

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Implications of applying widely accepted cholesterol screening and management guidelines to a British adult population: cross sectional study of cardiovascular disease and risk factors

Objective: To compare the implications of four widely used cholesterol screening and treatment guidelines by applying them to a population in the United Kingdom.

Manual for police traffic services personnel performance evaluation system. Management and implementation. Volume I.

Mode of access: Internet.