An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

The effectiveness of teams in organizations:a meta-analysis

The proposed meta-analysis of 61 independent samples aims to identify whether, and if so under what conditions, team working in organizations is related to organizational effectiveness. Team working had a significant though small positive relationship with both performance outcomes and staff attitudes. Our contingency analyses further showed that team working had a stronger relationship with performance outcomes if accompanied by complementary HR measures and in non-health-care settings. Finally, we found that team working is more strongly related to attitudinal outcomes in Sociotechnical Systems and health-care settings. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

The value of risk reporting:a critical analysis of value-at-risk disclosures in the banking sector

This paper critically reviews the evolution of financial reporting in the banking sector with specific reference to the reporting of market risk and the growing use of the measure known as Value at Risk (VaR). The paper investigates the process by which VaR became 'institutionalised'. The analysis highlights a number of inherent limitations of VaR as a risk measure and questions the usefulness of published VaR disclosures, concluding that risk 'disclosure' might be more apparent than real. It also looks at some of the implications for risk reporting practice and the accounting profession more generally.

Emerging of human factor in risk analysis of home care service

Risk management in healthcare represents a group of various complex actions, implemented to improve the quality of healthcare services and guarantee the patients safety. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it can be controlled with different risk assessment methods derived from industrial applications and among these the Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a largely used methodology. The main purpose of this work is the analysis of failure modes of the Home Care (HC) service provided by local healthcare unit of Naples (ASL NA1) to focus attention on human and non human factors according to the organization framework selected by WHO. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

Flood risk analysis of the White Oak Creek watershed in Oak Ridge, Tennessee using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 software

The purpose of this study was to determine the flooding potential of contaminated areas within the White Oak Creek watershed in the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The watershed was analyzed with an integrated surface and subsurface numerical model based on MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software. The model was calibrated and validated using five decades of historical data. A series of simulations were conducted to determine the watershed response to 25 year, 100 year and 500 year precipitation forecasts; flooding maps were generated for those events. Predicted flood events were compared to Log Pearson III flood flow frequency values for validation. This investigation also provides an improved understanding of the water fluxes between the surface and subsurface subdomains as they affect flood frequencies. In sum, this study presents crucial information to further assess the environmental risks of potential mobilization of contaminants of concern during extreme precipitation events.

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Analysis of personality traits as a risk factor in crash related trauma.

Background: Due to increasing stress, individual personality traits are becoming a significant contributor to CRT (Crash Related Trauma). In the present study, we hypothesized that there will be no difference in personality characteristics of CRT patients and control subjects and there will be no association between trauma and personality characteristics of CRT patients. Method: A total of 119 cases and 112 controls of age >18 years were selected as per criteria decided. After obtaining ethical clearance, patients presenting to the emergency orthopedic unit were included in the study. After primary management all enrolled subjects were assessed by ICD 10 module screening questionnaire and analyzed for nine personality traits, subject to written informed consent. Results: Of all the cases enrolled 82.35% were males. Impulsive personality trait is found in 84.78% (39/46) cases. There were 46 motorcyclists out of 119 cases enrolled. Most of the personality traits showed a statistical significant association (p < 0.0003) with CRT. Conclusion: Majority of CRT victims attending orthopedic emergency unit at trauma center had impulsive and histrionic personality characteristics which accounted for 84.78% and 82.61% cases respectively. These traits showed a statistical significant association with CRT.

Identifying and enhancing risk thresholds in the detection of elder financial abuse: A signal detection analysis of professionals' decision making

Background: Financial abuse of elders is an under acknowledged problem and professionals' judgements contribute to both the prevalence of abuse and the ability to prevent and intervene. In the absence of a definitive "gold standard" for the judgement, it is desirable to try and bring novice professionals' judgemental risk thresholds to the level of competent professionals as quickly and effectively as possible. This study aimed to test if a training intervention was able to bring novices' risk thresholds for financial abuse in line with expert opinion. Methods: A signal detection analysis, within a randomised controlled trial of an educational intervention, was undertaken to examine the effect on the ability of novices to efficiently detect financial abuse. Novices (n = 154) and experts (n = 33) judged "certainty of risk" across 43 scenarios; whether a scenario constituted a case of financial abuse or not was a function of expert opinion. Novices (n = 154) were randomised to receive either an on-line educational intervention to improve financial abuse detection (n = 78) or a control group (no on-line educational intervention, n = 76). Both groups examined 28 scenarios of abuse (11 "signal" scenarios of risk and 17 "noise" scenarios of no risk). After the intervention group had received the on-line training, both groups then examined 15 further scenarios (5 "signal" and 10 "noise" scenarios). Results: Experts were more certain than the novices, pre (Mean 70.61 vs. 58.04) and post intervention (Mean 70.84 vs. 63.04); and more consistent. The intervention group (mean 64.64) were more certain of abuse post-intervention than the control group (mean 61.41, p = 0.02). Signal detection analysis of sensitivity (Á) and bias (C) revealed that this was due to the intervention shifting the novices' tendency towards saying "at risk" (C post intervention -.34) and away from their pre intervention levels of bias (C-.12). Receiver operating curves revealed more efficient judgments in the intervention group. Conclusion: An educational intervention can improve judgements of financial abuse amongst novice professionals.

Risk analysis of climate change on black sigatoka in banana in Brazil.

2008

[association Between Breast Arterial Calcifications And Cardiovascular Risk Factors In Menopausal Women].

To analyze associations between mammographic arterial mammary calcifications in menopausal women and risk factors for cardiovascular disease. This was a cross-sectional retrospective study, in which we analyzed the mammograms and medical records of 197 patients treated between 2004 and 2005. Study variables were: breast arterial calcifications, stroke, acute coronary syndrome, age, obesity, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and hypertension. For statistical analysis, we used the Mann-Whitney, χ2 and Cochran-Armitage tests, and also evaluated the prevalence ratios between these variables and mammary artery calcifications. Data were analyzed with the SAS version 9.1 software. In the group of 197 women, there was a prevalence of 36.6% of arterial calcifications on mammograms. Among the risk factors analyzed, the most frequent were hypertension (56.4%), obesity (31.9%), smoking (15.2%), and diabetes (14.7%). Acute coronary syndrome and stroke presented 5.6 and 2.0% of prevalence, respectively. Among the mammograms of women with diabetes, the odds ratio of mammary artery calcifications was 2.1 (95%CI 1.0-4.1), with p-value of 0.02. On the other hand, the mammograms of smokers showed the low occurrence of breast arterial calcification, with an odds ratio of 0.3 (95%CI 0.1-0.8). Hypertension, obesity, diabetes mellitus, stroke and acute coronary syndrome were not significantly associated with breast arterial calcification. The occurrence of breast arterial calcification was associated with diabetes mellitus and was negatively associated with smoking. The presence of calcification was independent of the other risk factors for cardiovascular disease analyzed.

Falls Among The Elderly: Risk Factors In A Population-based Study.

The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with the occurrence of falls among elderly adults in a population-based study (ISACamp 2008). A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out with two-stage cluster sampling. The sample was composed of 1,520 elderly adults living in the urban area of the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. The occurrence of falls was analyzed based on reports of the main accident occurred in the previous 12 months. Data on socioeconomic/demographic factors and adverse health conditions were tested for possible associations with the outcome. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated and adjusted for gender and age using the Poisson multiple regression analysis. Falls were more frequent, after adjustment for gender and age, among female elderly participants (PR = 2.39; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.47 - 3.87), elderly adults (80 years old and older) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.61 - 3.88), widowed (PR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.04 - 2.89) and among elderly adults who had rheumatism/arthritis/arthrosis (PR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.00 - 2.48), osteoporosis (PR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.49), asthma/bronchitis/emphysema (PR = 1,73; 95% CI 1.09 - 2.74), headache (PR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.07 - 2.38), mental common disorder (PR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.12 - 2.64), dizziness (PR = 2.82; 95% CI 1.98 - 4.02), insomnia (PR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.16 - 2.65), use of multiple medications (five or more) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.12 - 5.56) and use of cane/walker (PR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.19 - 3,93). The present study shows segments of the elderly population who are more prone to falls through the identification of factors associated with this outcome. The findings can contribute to the planning of public health policies and programs addressed to the prevention of falls.

Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective: To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods: 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 +/- 9.4 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m(2)) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m(2)). Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results: For a sample with a BMI 28.5 +/- 5.0 kg/m(2) the association with lower risk (<10% CAD) were lower age (<60 years old), and plasma values of uric acid. The presence of MS within low, intermediary, and high CAD risk categories was 30.8%, 55.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with CAD risk score was MS and uric acid, and the protective factors were recommended intake of saturated fat and fiber and muscle mass index. Conclusion: Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score.