883 resultados para Risk Prediction
Resumo:
This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.
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Early diagnosis of melanoma leads to the best prognosis for patients and may be more likely achieved when those who are at high risk for melanoma undergo regular and systematic monitoring. However, many people rarely or never see a dermatologist. Risk prediction models (recently reviewed by Usher-Smith et al ) could assist to triage people into preventive care appropriate for their risk profile. Most risk prediction models contain measures of phenotype including skin, eye and hair colour as well as genetic mutations. Almost all also contain the number and size of naevi, as well as the presence of naevi with atypical features which are independently associated with melanoma risk. In the absence of formal population-based screening programs for melanoma in most countries worldwide, people with high risk phenotypes may need to consider regular monitoring or self-monitoring of their naevi , especially since the vast majority of melanomas are found by people themselves or their friend and relatives. Another group of patients that will require regular monitoring are patients who have been successfully treated for their first melanoma, whose risk to develop a second melanoma is greatly increased . In a US study of 89,515 melanoma survivors those with a previous diagnosis of melanoma had a 9-fold increased risk of developing subsequent melanoma compared with the general population, equating to a rate of 3.76 per 1000 person-years, while in an Australian study, risk of subsequent melanoma was 6 per 1000 person-years. Regular follow-up is therefore essential for melanoma survivors, especially during the first few years after initial melanoma diagnosis.
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The risk of developing osteoporosis is determined by the interaction of several mostly unknown genes and environmental factors. Genetic studies in osteoporosis have largely focussed on association studies of a small number of candidate genes, with few linkage studies performed, and large areas of the genome remaining unexplored. Identifying the genes involved in osteoporosis would be a major advance in our understanding of the causation of the disease, and lead to advances in diagnosis, risk prediction, and potentially preventive and therapeutic measures.
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Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been classically used for dissecting various human complex disorders using candidate gene studies. During the last decade, large scale SNP analysis i.e. genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have provided an agnostic approach to identify possible genetic loci associated with heterogeneous disease such as cancer susceptibility, prognosis of survival or drug response. Further, the advent of new technologies, including microarray based genotyping as well as high throughput next generation sequencing has opened new avenues for SNPs to be used in clinical practice. It is speculated that the utility of SNPs to understand the mechanisms, biology of variable drug response and ultimately treatment individualization based on the individual’s genome composition will be indispensable in the near future. In the current review, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the clinical utility of genetic variants in disease risk-prediction, prognosis, clinical outcome and pharmacogenomics. The lessons and challenges for the utility of SNP based biomarkers are also discussed, including the need for additional functional validation studies.
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Options for the integrated management of white blister (caused by Albugo candida) of Brassica crops include the use of well timed overhead irrigation, resistant cultivars, programs of weekly fungicide sprays or strategic fungicide applications based on the disease risk prediction model, Brassica(spot)(TM). Initial systematic surveys of radish producers near Melbourne, Victoria, indicated that crops irrigated overhead in the morning (0800-1200 h) had a lower incidence of white blister than those irrigated overhead in the evening (2000-2400 h). A field trial was conducted from July to November 2008 on a broccoli crop located west of Melbourne to determine the efficacy and economics of different practices used for white blister control, modifying irrigation timing, growing a resistant cultivar and timing spray applications based on Brassica(spot)(TM). Growing the resistant cultivar, 'Tyson', instead of the susceptible cultivar, 'Ironman', reduced disease incidence on broccoli heads by 99 %. Overhead irrigation at 0400 h instead of 2000 h reduced disease incidence by 58 %. A weekly spray program or a spray regime based on either of two versions of the Brassica(spot)(TM) model provided similar disease control and reduced disease incidence by 72 to 83 %. However, use of the Brassica(spot)(TM) models greatly reduced the number of sprays required for control from 14 to one or two. An economic analysis showed that growing the more resistant cultivar increased farm profit per ha by 12 %, choosing morning irrigation by 3 % and using the disease risk predictive models compared with weekly sprays by 15 %. The disease risk predictive models were 4 % more profitable than the unsprayed control.
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Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.
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Both inherited genetic variations and somatically acquired mutations drive cancer development. The aim of this thesis was to gain insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition and tumor progression. Whereas one-third of CRC may develop in the context of hereditary predisposition, the known highly penetrant syndromes only explain a small fraction of all cases. Genome-wide association studies have shown that ten common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) modestly predispose to CRC. Our population-based sample series of around thousand CRC cases and healthy controls was genotyped for these SNPs. Tumors of heterozygous patients were analyzed for allelic imbalance, in an attempt to reveal the role of these SNPs in somatic tumor progression. The risk allele of rs6983267 at 8q24 was favored in the tumors significantly more often than the neutral allele, indicating that this germline variant is somatically selected for. No imbalance targeting the risk allele was observed in the remaining loci, suggesting that most of the low-penetrance CRC SNPs mainly play a role in the early stages of the neoplastic process. The ten SNPs were further analyzed in 788 CRC cases, 97 of which had a family history of CRC, to evaluate their combined contribution. A significant association appeared between the overall number of risk alleles and familial CRC and these ten SNPs seem to explain around 9% of the familial clustering of CRC. Finding more CRC susceptibility alleles may facilitate individualized risk prediction and cancer prevention in the future. Microsatellite instability (MSI), resulting from defective mismatch repair function, is a hallmark of Lynch syndrome and observed in a subset of all CRCs. Our aim was to identify microsatellite frameshift mutations that inactivate tumor suppressor genes in MSI CRCs. By sequencing microsatellite repeats of underexpressed genes we found six novel MSI target genes that were frequently mutated in 100 MSI CRCs: 51% in GLYR1, 47% in ABCC5, 43% in WDTC1, 33% in ROCK1, 30% in OR51E2, and 28% in TCEB3. Immunohistochemical staining of GLYR1 revealed defective protein expression in homozygously mutated tumors, providing further support for the loss of function hypothesis. Another mutation screening effort sought to identify MSI target genes with putative oncogenic functions. Microsatellites were similarly sequenced in genes that were overexpressed and, upon mutation, predicted to avoid nonsense-mediated mRNA decay. The mitotic checkpoint kinase TTK harbored protein-elongating mutations in 59% of MSI CRCs and the mutant protein was detected in heterozygous MSI CRC cells. No checkpoint dysregulation or defective protein localization was observable however, and the biological relevance of this mutation may hence be related to other mechanisms. In conclusion, these two large-scale and unbiased efforts identified frequently mutated genes that are likely to contribute to the development of this cancer type and may be utilized in developing diagnostic and therapeutic applications.
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Body mass index (BMI) is a non-invasive measurement of obesity. It is commonly used for assessing adiposity and obesity-related risk prediction. Genetic differences between ethnic groups are important factors, which contribute to the variation in phenotypic effects. India inhabited by the first out-of-Africa human population and the contemporary Indian populations are admixture of two ancestral populations; ancestral north Indians (ANI) and ancestral south Indians (ASI). Although ANI are related to Europeans, ASI are not related to any group outside Indian-subcontinent. Hence, we expect novel genetic loci associated with BMI. In association analysis, we found eight genic SNPs in extreme of distribution (P <= 3.75 x 10(-5)), of which WWOX has already been reported to be associated with obesity-related traits hence excluded from further study. Interestingly, we observed rs1526538, an intronic SNP of THSD7A; a novel gene significantly associated with obesity (P = 2.88 x 10(-5), 8.922 x 10(-6) and 2.504 x 10(-9) in discovery, replication and combined stages, respectively). THSD7A is neural N-glycoprotein, which promotes angiogenesis and it is well known that angiogenesis modulates obesity, adipose metabolism and insulin sensitivity, hence our result find a correlation. This information can be used for drug target, early diagnosis of obesity and treatment.
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A reação álcali-agregado - RAA é uma patologia de ação lenta que tem sido observada em construções de concreto capaz de comprometer suas estruturas. Sabe-se que a reação álcali-agregado é um fenômeno bastante complexo em virtude da grande variedade de rochas na natureza que são empregadas como agregados no preparo do concreto, podendo cada mineral utilizado afetar de forma distinta a reação ocorrida. Em função dos tipos de estrutura, das suas condições de exposição e dos materiais empregados, a RAA não se comporta sempre da mesma forma, em virtude disto a pesquisa constante neste tema é necessária para o meio técnico e a sociedade. Pesquisas laboratoriais, empíricas e experimentais tem sido rotina em muitos dos estudos da RAA dada ainda à carência de certas definições mais precisas a respeito dos métodos de ensaio, mas também em função da necessidade do melhor conhecimento dos materiais de uso em concretos como os agregados, cimentos, adições, aditivos entre outros e do comportamento da estrutura. Embora técnicas de prevenção possam reduzir significativamente a incidência da RAA, muitas estruturas foram construídas antes que tais medidas fossem conhecidas, havendo no Brasil vários casos de estruturas afetadas, sendo custosos os reparos dessas estruturas. Em estudos recentes sobre o tamanho das partículas de álcali-agregado e sua distribuição foi concluído que o tamanho do agregado está relacionado com o potencial danoso da RAA. Existem ainda indícios de que o tamanho e a distribuição dos poros do concreto também sejam capazes de influenciar o potencial reativo do concreto. Neste trabalho desenvolvemos um Sistema de Visão Artificial (SVA) que, com o uso de técnicas de Processamento de Imagens, é capaz de identificar em imagens de concreto, agregado e poros que atendam em sua forma, às especificações do usuário, possibilitando o cálculo da porosidade e produzindo imagens segmentadas à partir das quais será possível extrair dados relativos à geometria desses elementos. Serão feitas duas abordagens para a obtenção das imagens, uma por Escâner Comercial, que possui vantagens relacionadas à facilidade de aquisição do equipamento, e outra por micro tomógrafo. Uma vez obtidas informações sobre as amostras de concreto, estas podem ser utilizadas para pesquisar a RAA, comparar estruturas de risco com estruturas antigas de forma a melhorar a previsão de risco de ocorrência, bem como serem aplicadas a outras no estudo de outras patologias do concreto menos comuns no nosso país, como o efeito gelo/degelo.
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As one part of national road No. 318, Sichuan-Tibet (Chengdu-Lasha) Highway is one of traffic life lines connecting Tibet municipality to the inland, which is very important to the economic development of Tibet. In addition, it is still an important national defence routeway, with extremely important strategic position on maintaining the stability and solidarity of Tibet municipality and consolidating national defence. Particular geological condition, terrain and landform condition and hydrometeorological condition induce large-scale debris flows and landslides (including landslips) and the like geological hazards frequently occur along the highway. High frequency geological hazards not only result in high casualties and a great property loss, but also block traffic at every turn, obstructing the Sichuan-Tibet highway seriously. On the basis of considerable engineering geological investigation and analysis to the relative studying achievements of predecessors, it is found that one of the dominating reason incurring landslides or debris flows again and again in a place is that abundant loose materials are accumulated in valleys and slopes along the highway. Taking landslides' and debris flows along Ranwu-Lulang section of Sichuan-Tibet highway as studying objects, the sources and cause of formation of loose accumulation materials in the studying area are analyzed in detail, the major hazard-inducing conditions, hazard, dynamic risk, prediction of susceptibility degree of landslides and debris flows, and the relations between landslides and debris flows and various hazard-inducing conditions are systematically researched in this paper. All of these will provide scientific foundation for the future highway renovating and reducing and preventing geological hazards. For the purpose of quantitatively analyzing landslide and debris flow hazards, the conception of entropy and information entropy are extended, the conception of geological hazard entropy is brought forward, and relevant mathematics model is built. Additionally, a new approach for the dynamic risk analysis of landslide and debris flow is put forward based on the dynamic characteristics of the hazard of hazard-inducings and the vulnerability of hazard-bearings. The formation of landslide and debris flow is a non-linear process, which is synthetically affected by various factors, and whose formation mechanics is extremely complex. Aiming at this question, a muli-factors classifying and overlapping technique is brought forward on the basis of engineering geomechanics meta-synthesis (EGMS) thought and approach, and relevant mathematics model is also built to predict the susceptibility degree of landslide or debris flow. The example analysis result proves the validity of this thought and approach. To studying the problem that whether the formation and space distribution of landslides and debris flows are controlled by one or several hazard-inducing conditions, the theme graphics of landslides and debris flows hazard and various hazard-inducing conditions are overlapped to determine the relationship between hazard and hazard-inducing conditions. On this basis, the semi-quantitative engineering zonation of the studying area is carried out. In addition, the overlapping analysis method of the hazard-indue ing conditions of landslides and debris flows based on "digital graphics system" is advanced to orderly organize and effectively manage the spatial and attributive data of hazard and hazard-inducing conditions theme graphics, and to realize the effectively combination of graphics, images and figures.
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BACKGROUND: Patients, clinicians, researchers and payers are seeking to understand the value of using genomic information (as reflected by genotyping, sequencing, family history or other data) to inform clinical decision-making. However, challenges exist to widespread clinical implementation of genomic medicine, a prerequisite for developing evidence of its real-world utility. METHODS: To address these challenges, the National Institutes of Health-funded IGNITE (Implementing GeNomics In pracTicE; www.ignite-genomics.org ) Network, comprised of six projects and a coordinating center, was established in 2013 to support the development, investigation and dissemination of genomic medicine practice models that seamlessly integrate genomic data into the electronic health record and that deploy tools for point of care decision making. IGNITE site projects are aligned in their purpose of testing these models, but individual projects vary in scope and design, including exploring genetic markers for disease risk prediction and prevention, developing tools for using family history data, incorporating pharmacogenomic data into clinical care, refining disease diagnosis using sequence-based mutation discovery, and creating novel educational approaches. RESULTS: This paper describes the IGNITE Network and member projects, including network structure, collaborative initiatives, clinical decision support strategies, methods for return of genomic test results, and educational initiatives for patients and providers. Clinical and outcomes data from individual sites and network-wide projects are anticipated to begin being published over the next few years. CONCLUSIONS: The IGNITE Network is an innovative series of projects and pilot demonstrations aiming to enhance translation of validated actionable genomic information into clinical settings and develop and use measures of outcome in response to genome-based clinical interventions using a pragmatic framework to provide early data and proofs of concept on the utility of these interventions. Through these efforts and collaboration with other stakeholders, IGNITE is poised to have a significant impact on the acceleration of genomic information into medical practice.
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Purpose: A non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism ( SNP) in complement component 3 has been shown to increase the risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We assess its effect on AMD risk in a Northern Irish sample, test for gene-gene and gene-environment interaction, and review a risk prediction model.
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OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.
DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.
SETTING: Primary and secondary care.
PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).
INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).
RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.
LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.
CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.
FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.
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The global prevalence of diabetic nephropathy is rising in parallel with the increasing incidence of diabetes in most countries. Unfortunately, up to 40 % of persons diagnosed with diabetes may develop kidney complications. Diabetic nephropathy is associated with substantially increased risks of cardiovascular disease and premature mortality. An inherited susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy exists, and progress is being made unravelling the genetic basis for nephropathy thanks to international research collaborations, shared biological resources and new analytical approaches. Multiple epidemiological studies have highlighted the clinical heterogeneity of nephropathy and the need for better phenotyping to help define important subgroups for analysis and increase the power of genetic studies. Collaborative genome-wide association studies for nephropathy have reported unique genes, highlighted novel biological pathways and suggested new disease mechanisms, but progress towards clinically relevant risk prediction models for diabetic nephropathy has been slow. This review summarises the current status, recent developments and ongoing challenges elucidating the genetics of diabetic nephropathy.
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Background: Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) failure to mature (FTM) rates contribute to excessive dependence on central venous catheters for haemodialysis. Choosing the most appropriate vascular access site for an individual patient is guided largely by their age, co-morbidities and clinical examination. We investigated the clinical predictors of AVF FTM in a European cohort of patients and applied an existing clinical risk prediction model for AVF FTM to this population.
Methods: A prospective cohort study was designed that included all patients undergoing AVF creation between January 2009 and December 2014 in a single centre (Belfast City Hospital) who had a functional AVF outcome observed by March 2015.
Results: A total of 525 patients had a functional AVF outcome recorded and were included in the FTM analysis. In this cohort, 309 (59%) patients achieved functional AVF patency and 216 (41%) patients had FTM. Female gender [P < 0.001, odds ratio (OR) 2.03 (CI 1.37–3.02)] and lower-arm AVF [P < 0.001, OR 4.07 (CI 2.77–5.92)] were associated with AVF FTM. The Lok model did not predict FTM outcomes based on the associated risk stratification in our population.
Conclusions: In this European study, female gender was associated with twice the risk of AVF FTM and a lower-arm AVF with four times the risk of FTM. The FTM risk prediction model was not found to be discriminative in this population. Clinical risk factors for AVF FTM vary between populations;we would recommend that units investigate their own clinical predictors of FTM to maximize AVF functional patency and ultimately survival in dialysis patients. Clinical predictors of AVF FTM may not be sufficient on their own to improve vascular access functional patency rates.