Prospective Risk of Intrauterine Death of Monochorionic-Diamniotic Twins

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to calculate the prospective risk of fetal death in monochorionic-diamniotic twins. STUDY DESIGN: We evaluated 193 monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies that were followed and delivered after 24 weeks. Surveillance included cardiotocography and sonography performed at least once weekly. The prospective risk of fetal death was calculated as the total number of deaths at the beginning of the gestational period divided by the number of continuing pregnancies at or beyond that period. RESULTS: The fetal death rate was 5 of 193 pregnancies (2.6%; 95% CI, 1.1, 5.9); the prospective risk of stillbirth per pregnancy after 32 weeks of gestation was 1.2% (95% CI, 0.3% - 4.2%). CONCLUSION: Under intensive surveillance, the prospective risk of fetal death in monochorionic-diamniotic pregnancies after 32 weeks of gestation is much lower than reported and does not support a policy of elective preterm delivery.

Technology transition towards electric mobility - technology assessment as a tool for policy design

Paper presented at the Colloquium Gerpisa 2013, Paris (http://gerpisa.org/node/2085), Session n°: 19 New kinds of mobility: old and new business models

How effective is dog culling in controlling zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis? a critical evaluation of the science, politics and ethics behind this public health policy

INTRODUCTION: Zoonotic kala-azar, a lethal disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania is considered out of control in parts of the world, particularly in Brazil, where transmission has spread to cities throughout most of the territory and mortality presents an increasing trend. Although a highly debatable measure, the Brazilian government regularly culls seropositive dogs to control the disease. Since control is failing, critical analysis concerning the actions focused on the canine reservoir was conducted. METHODS: In a review of the literature, a historical perspective focusing mainly on comparisons between the successful Chinese and Soviet strategies and the Brazilian approach is presented. In addition, analyses of the principal studies regarding the role of dogs as risk factors to humans and of the main intervention studies regarding the efficacy of the dog killing strategy were undertaken. Brazilian political reaction to a recently published systematic review that concluded that the dog culling program lacked efficiency and its effect on public policy were also reviewed. RESULTS: No firm evidence of the risk conferred by the presence of dogs to humans was verified; on the contrary, a lack of scientific support for the policy of killing dogs was confirmed. A bias for distorting scientific data towards maintaining the policy of culling animals was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Since there is no evidence that dog culling diminishes visceral leishmaniasis transmission, it should be abandoned as a control measure. Ethical considerations have been raised regarding distorting scientific results and the killing of animals despite minimal or absent scientific evidence

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Toxoplasma gondii infection: seroprevalence and associated risk factors among primary schoolchildren in Lagos City, Southern Nigeria

INTRODUCTION: Toxoplasma gondii infection has been described as the most widespread zoonotic infection of humans and other animals. Information concerning T. gondii infection among schoolchildren is unavailable in Lagos City, Nigeria. METHODS: This cross-sectional study investigated the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with T. gondii infection among primary schoolchildren (PSC) from a community located in the center of Lagos, southern Nigeria, from November 2013 to March 2014. A total of 382 PSC were screened for the presence of sera anti-T. gondii antibodies using a latex agglutination test (TOXO Test-MT, Tokyo, Japan). A cutoff titer of ≥ 1:32 was considered positive, while titers ≥ 1:1,024 indicated high responders. Questionnaires were also used to obtain data on possible risk factors from parents/guardians. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence was 24% (91/382), and 83.5% (76/91) of seropositive PSC were classified as high responders. Among the risk factors tested, including contact with cats and soil, consumption of raw meat and vegetables, and drinking unboiled water, none showed statistical significance after multivariate adjustment. No associations were observed among age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and parents' occupation/educational level. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this study show evidence of active infection, and hence, there is need for urgent preventive measures in this city. Further investigation is required to clarify the transmission routes. Policy makers also need to initiate prevention and control programs to protect pregnant women and immunocompromised patients in particular because they are more severely affected by T. gondii infection.

Optimal feedback control rules sensitive to controlled endogenous risk-aversion

The objective of this paper is to correct and improve the results obtained by Van der Ploeg (1984a, 1984b) and utilized in the theoretical literature related to feedback stochastic optimal control sensitive to constant exogenous risk-aversion (see, Jacobson, 1973, Karp, 1987 and Whittle, 1981, 1989, 1990, among others) or to the classic context of risk-neutral decision-makers (see, Chow, 1973, 1976a, 1976b, 1977, 1978, 1981, 1993). More realistic and attractive, this new approach is placed in the context of a time-varying endogenous risk-aversion which is under the control of the decision-maker. It has strong qualitative implications on the agent's optimal policy during the entire planning horizon.

DQB1 locus alone explains most of the risk and protection in narcolepsy with cataplexy in Europe.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Prior research has identified five common genetic variants associated with narcolepsy with cataplexy in Caucasian patients. To replicate and/or extend these findings, we have tested HLA-DQB1, the previously identified 5 variants, and 10 other potential variants in a large European sample of narcolepsy with cataplexy subjects. DESIGN: Retrospective case-control study. SETTING: A recent study showed that over 76% of significant genome-wide association variants lie within DNase I hypersensitive sites (DHSs). From our previous GWAS, we identified 30 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with P < 10(-4) mapping to DHSs. Ten SNPs tagging these sites, HLADQB1, and all previously reported SNPs significantly associated with narcolepsy were tested for replication. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: For GWAS, 1,261 narcolepsy patients and 1,422 HLA-DQB1*06:02-matched controls were included. For HLA study, 1,218 patients and 3,541 controls were included. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: None of the top variants within DHSs were replicated. Out of the five previously reported SNPs, only rs2858884 within the HLA region (P < 2x10(-9)) and rs1154155 within the TRA locus (P < 2x10(-8)) replicated. DQB1 typing confirmed that DQB1*06:02 confers an extraordinary risk (odds ratio 251). Four protective alleles (DQB1*06:03, odds ratio 0.17, DQB1*05:01, odds ratio 0.56, DQB1*06:09 odds ratio 0.21, DQB1*02 odds ratio 0.76) were also identified. CONCLUSION: An overwhelming portion of genetic risk for narcolepsy with cataplexy is found at DQB1 locus. Since DQB1*06:02 positive subjects are at 251-fold increase in risk for narcolepsy, and all recent cases of narcolepsy after H1N1 vaccination are positive for this allele, DQB1 genotyping may be relevant to public health policy.

Political Risk, Economic Integration, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision

In this paper we analyse the impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment strategies. We also consider the impact of economic integration upon FDI decisions. The paper follows the real options approach, which allows investigating the value to a firm of waiting to invest and/or disinvest, when payoffs are stochastic due to political uncertainty and investments are partially reversible. Across the board we find that political uncertainty can be very detrimental to FDI decisions while economic integration leads to an increasing benefit of investing abroad.

Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

On monetary policy and stock market anomalies

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formedon the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differentialmanner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks in comparison to growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Subsample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that monetary policy shocks’ impact on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre-1983 period.

Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting

This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk are assessed under two monetary regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). These effects differ because IT implies base-level drift in the price level, while PT makes the price level stationary around a target price path. Under IT, the welfare cost of long run inflation risk is equal to 0.35 percent of aggregate consumption. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, it is lowered to only 0.01 per cent. There are welfare gains from PT because it raises average consumption for the young and lowers consumption risk substantially for the old. These results are strongly robust to changes in the PT target horizon and fairly robust to imperfect credibility, fiscal policy, and model calibration. While the distributional effects of an unexpected transition to PT are sizeable, they are short-lived and not welfare-reducing.

Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Report of the National Taskforce on Obesity: Obesity - the policy challenges: Executive Summary

The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased with alarming speed over the past twenty years. It has recently been described by the World Health Organisation as a ‘global epidemic’. In the year 2000 more than 300 million people worldwide were obese and it is now projected that by 2025 up to half the population of the United States will be obese if current trends are maintained. The disease is now a major public health problem throughout Europe. In Ireland at the present time 39% of adults are overweight and 18% are obese. Of these, slightly more men than women are obese and there is a higher incidence of the disease in lower socio-economic groups. Most worrying of all is the fact that childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in Europe, with body weight now the most prevalent childhood disease. While currently there are no agreed criteria or standards for assessing Irish children for obesity some studies are indicating that the numbers of children who are significantly overweight have trebled over the past decade. Extrapolation from authoritative UK data suggests that these numbers could now amount to more than 300,000 overweight and obese children on the island of Ireland and they are probably rising at a rate of over 10,000 per year. A balance of food intake and physical activity is necessary for a healthy weight. The foods we individually consume and our participation in physical activity are the result of a complex supply and production system. The growing research evidence that energy dense foods promote obesity is impressive and convincing. These are the foods that are high in fat, sugar and starch. Of these potentially the most significant promoter of weight gain is fat and foods from the top shelf of the food pyramid including spreads (butter and margarine), cakes and biscuits, and confectionery, when combined are the greatest contributors to fat intake in the Irish diet. In company with their adult counterparts Irish children are also consuming large amounts of energy dense foods outside the home. A recent survey revealed that slightly over half of these children ate sweets at least once a day and roughly a third of them had fizzy drinks and crisps with the same regularity. Sugar sweetened carbonated drinks are thought to contribute to obesity and for this reason the World Health Organisation has expressed serious concerns at the high and increasing consumption of these drinks by children. Physical activity is an important determinant of body weight. Over recent decades there has been a marked decline in demanding physical work and this has been accompanied by more sedentary lifestyles generally and reduced leisure-time activity. These observable changes, which are supported by data from most European countries and the United States, suggest that physical inactivity has made a significant impact on the increase in overweight and obesity being seen today. It is now widely accepted that adults shoud be involved in 45-60 minutes, and children should be involved in at least 60 minutes per day of moderate physical activity in order to prevent excess weight gain. Being overweight today not only signals increased risk of medical problems but also exposes people to serious psychosocial problems due mainly to widespread prejudice against fat people. Prejudice against obese people seems to border on the socially acceptable in Ireland. It crops up consistently in surveys covering groups such as employers, teachers, medical and healthcare personnel, and the media. It occurs among adolescents and children, even very young children. Because obesity is associated with premature death, excessive morbidity and serious psychosocial problems the damage it causes to the welfare of citizens is extremely serious and for this reason government intervention is necessary and warranted. In economic terms, a figure of approximately â,¬30million has been estimated for in-patient costs alone in 2003 for a number of Irish hospitals. This year about 2,000 premature deaths in Ireland will be attributed to obesity and the numbers are growing relentlessly. Diseases which proportionally more obese people suffer from than the general population include hypertension, type 2 diabetes, angina, heart attack and osteoarthritis. There are indirect costs also such as days lost to the workplace due to illness arising from obesity and output foregone as a result of premature death. Using the accepted EU environmental cost benefit method, these deaths alone may be costing the state as much as â,¬4bn per year. The social determinants of physical activity include factors such as socio-economic status, education level, gender, family and peer group influences as well as individual perceptions of the benefits of physical activity. The environmental determinants include geographic location, time of year, and proximity of facilities such as open spaces, parks and safe recreational areas generally. The environmental factors have not yet been as well studied as the social ones and this research gap needs to be addressed. Clearly there is a public health imperative to ensure that relevant environmental policies maximise opportunities for active transport, recreational physical activity and total physical activity. It is clear that concerted policy initiatives must be put in place if the predominantly negative findings of research regarding the determinants of food consumption and physical activity are to be accepted, and they must surely be accepted by government if the rapid increase in the incidence of obesity with all its negative consequences for citizens is to be reversed. So far actions surrounding nutrition policies have concentrated mostly on actions that are within the remit of the Department of Health and Children such as implementing the dietary guidelines. These are important but government must now look at the totality of policies that influence the type and supply of food that its citizens eat and the range and quality of opportunities that are available to citizens to engage in physical activity. This implies a fundamental examination of existing agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies and a determination to change them if they do not enable people to eat healthily and partake in physical activity. The current crisis in obesity prevalence requires a population health approach for adults and children in addition to effective weight-reduction management for individuals who are severely overweight. This entails addressing the obesogenic environment where people live, creating conditions over time which lead to healthier eating and more active living, and protecting people from the widespread availability of unhealthy food and beverage options in addition to sedentary activities that take up all of their leisure time. People of course have a fundamental right to choose to eat what they want and to be as active as they wish. That is not the issue. What the National Taskforce on Obesity has had to take account of is that many forces are actively impeding change for those well aware of the potential health and well-being consequences to themselves of overweight and obesity. The Taskforce’s social change strategy is to give people meaningful choice. Choice, or the capacity to change (because the strategy is all about change), is facilitated through the development of personal skills and preferences, through supportive and participative environments at work, at school and in the local community, and through a dedicated and clearly communicated public health strategy. High-level cabinet support will be necessary to implement the Taskforce’s recommendations. The approach to implementation must be characterised by joined-up thinking, real practical engagement by the public and private sectors, the avoidance of duplication of effort or crosspurpose approaches, and the harnessing of existing strategies and agencies. The range of government departments with roles to play is considerable. The Taskforce outlines the different contributions that each relevant department can make in driving its strategy forward. It also emphasises its requirement that all phases of the national strategy for healthy eating and physical activity are closely monitored, analysed and evaluated. The vision of the Taskforce is expressed as: An Irish society that enables people through health promotion, prevention and care to achieve and maintain healthy eating and active living throughout their lifespan. Its high-level goals are expressed as follows: Its recommendations, over eighty in all, relate to actions across six broad sectors: high-level government; education; social and community; health; food, commodities, production and supply; and the physical environment. In developing its recommendations the Taskforce has taken account of the complex, multisectoral and multi-faceted determinants of diet and physical activity. This strategy poses challenges for government, within individual departments, inter-departmentally and in developing partnerships with the commercial sector. Equally it challenges the commercial sector to work in partnership with government. The framework required for such initiative has at its core the rights and benefits of the individual. Health promotion is fundamentally about empowerment, whether at the individual, the community or the policy level.