Trade and economic growth: a Latin American perspective on rhetoric and reality

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Essays in behavioral economics

In this work we conduct an experimental analysis on different behavioral models of economic choice. In particular, we analyze the role of overconfidence in shaping the beliefs of economics agents about the future path of their consumption or investment. We discuss the relevance of this bias in expectation formation both from a static and from a dynamic point of view and we analyze the effect of possible interventions aimed to achieve some policy goals. The methodology we follow is both theoretical and empirical. In particular, we make large use of controlled economic field experiments in order to test the predictions of the theoretical models we propose. In the second part of the thesis we discuss the role of cognition and personality in affecting economic preferences and choices. In this way we make a bridge between established psychological research and novel findings in economics. Finally, we conduct a field study on the role of incentives on education. We design different incentive schemes and we test, on randomized groups of students, their effectiveness in improving academic performance.

Subsidiarity between Law and Economics. Research Papers in Law, 1/2005

From the Introduction. The present contribution is an attempt to raise awareness between the 'trenches' by juxtaposing the two approaches to subsidiarity. Subsequently, I shall set out why, in economics, subsidiarity is embraced as a key principle in the design and working of the Union and how a functional subsidiarity test can be derived from this thinking. Throughout the paper, a range of illustrations and examples is provided in an attempt to show the practical applicability of a subsidiarity test. This does not mean, of course, that the application of the test can automatically "solve" all debates on whether subsidiarity is (not) violated. What it does mean, however, is that a careful methodology can be a significant help to e.g. national parliaments and the Brussels circuit, in particular, to discourage careless politicisation as much as possible and to render assessments of subsidiarity comparable throughout the Union. The latter virtue should be of interest to national parliaments in cooperating, within just six weeks, about a common stance in the case of a suspected violation of the principle. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section 2 gives a flavour of very different approaches and appreciation of the subsidiarity principle in European law and in the economics of multi-tier government. Section 3 elaborates on the economics of multi-tier government as a special instance of cost / benefit analysis of (de)centralisation in the three public economic functions of any government system. This culminates in a five-steps subsidiarity test and a brief discussion about its proper and improper application. Section 4 applies the test in a non-technical fashion to a range of issues of the "efficiency function" (i.e. allocation and markets) of the EU. After showing that the functional logic of subsidiarity may require liberalisation to be accompanied by various degrees of centralisation, a number of fairly detailed illustrations of how to deal with subsidiarity in the EU is provided. One illustration is about how the subsidiarity logic is misused by protagonists (labour in the internal market). A slightly different but frequently encountered aspect consists in the refusal to recognize that the EU (that is, some form of centralisation) offers a better solution than 25 national ones. A third range of issues, where the functional logic of subsidiarity could be useful, emerges when the boundaries of national competences are shifting due to more intense cross-border flows and developments. Other subsections are devoted to Union public goods and to the question whether the subsidiarity test might trace instances of EU decentralisation: a partial or complete shift of a policy or regulation to Member States. The paper refrains from an analysis of the application of the subsidiarity test to the other two public functions, namely, equity and macro-economic stabilisation.2 Section 5 argues that the use of a well-developed methodology of a functional subsidiarity test would be most useful for the national parliaments and even more so for their cooperation in case of a suspected violation of subsidiarity. Section 6 concludes.

Matematikaoktatás a bolognai típusú gazdasági képzésekben (Maths instruction in Bologna-type economics tuition)

A gazdálkodási és közgazdasági alap- és mesterszakok tanterveiben számos matematikai tárgy szerepel. A kétciklusú bolognai képzésre történő áttérés Európa-szerte igényelte a matematikaoktatás szerkezetének, mennyiségének és mélységének újragondolását a gazdálkodási és közgazdasági képzési területeken. Mivel az átállás országonként és intézményenként párhuzamosan és jelentős mértékben egymástól függetlenül ment végbe, egyetemenként számos eltérő megoldással találkozhatunk. Az egyetemek operatív tanterveit és tantárgyi adatlapjait felhasználva, utólagosan már összehasonlítható az egyes egyetemek matematikaoktatása. A tanulmány a matematika közgazdaságtanban betöltött szerepének áttekintése után a vezető európai egyetemek és négy magyar egyetem gazdálkodási és közgazdasági képzésén folyó matematikaoktatásának összehasonlító elemzése alapján arra az alapvető következtetésre jut, hogy Magyarországon a vizsgált képzési területen a matematikaoktatás mennyiségileg és minőségileg kritikus szintre süllyedt. / === / The basic and master's curricula for business and economics include plenty of mathematics subjects. Business and economics courses had to be rethought when the change was made across Europe to the two-cycle Bologna system. This change took place simultaneously but independently in each country and institution, so that notably different solutions can be found in each university. A retrospective comparison of maths instruction in various universities can be made by examining their operative syllabuses and subject data-sheets. The study reviews the part mathematics plays in economics, then uses comparative analysis of the maths teaching in business and economics courses at leading European and four Hungarian universities to reach a general conclusion: maths teaching in Hungary, in the field examined, has sunk to a critical level, in terms of quality and quantity.

A kivonulás-tiltakozás-hűség fogalomhármas közgazdaságtani relevanciája a 21. században = The relevance of "exit, voice and loyalty" theory in 21st-century economics

A dolgozat a politikatudomány és közgazdaság-tudomány határán álló kivonulás-tiltakozás-hűség modell lényegét járja körbe. Az Albert O. Hirschman által felépített gondolati keret szemléleti frissessége és sajátos megközelítési módja rendkívül termékenyítően hatott az elmúlt évtizedekben a társadalomtudományok fejlődésére. Mégis viszonylag periferikus helyet foglal el a közgazdaság-tudományon belül, miközben például a rendszerváltás és az azt követő társadalmi feszültségek megjelenése szempontjából is sokoldalúan használható fogalmi keretről van szó. A válság indukálta turbulens környezet még inkább rávilágít arra, hogy ma is időszerű perspektívát kínál a hanyatlás politikai gazdaságtana, azaz hasznos elemzési kapaszkodó nyújt az úgynevezett Hirschman-trilemma a társadalmi és gazdasági folyamatok értelmezéséhez. ________ The article concerns the "exit, voice, and loyalty" concept, which straddles the border of political science and economics. This theoretical framework, invented by Albert O. Hirschman, has exercised a fruitful influence in the social sciences in the last few decades, through its fresh features and original approach. However, it holds a peripheral position in economics and plays an undervalued role in eco-nomic education in Hungary, even though it can be flexibly applied in analyses of such phenomena as the economic transition and the ensuing social tensions. Moreover the very turbulence of the conditions brought about by the crisis show that the political economy of decline offers a relevant perspective, so that the Hirschman trilemma is a practical analytical tool for understanding social and economic processes.

The Educational Imaginary in Radical Reconstruction: Congressional Public Policy Rhetoric and American Federalism, 1862-1872

Facing the exigencies of Emancipation, a South in ruins, and ongoing violence, between 1862 and 1872 the United States Congress debated the role education would play in the postbellum polity. Positing schooling as a panacea for the nation’s problems, a determiner of individual worth, and a way of ameliorating state and federal tensions, congressional leaders envisioned education as a way of reshaping American political life. In pursuit of this vision, many policymakers advocated national school agencies and assertive interventions into state educational systems. Interrogating the meaning of “education” for congressional leaders, this study examines the role of this ambiguous concept in negotiating the contradictions of federal and state identity, projecting visions of social change, evaluating civic preparedness, and enabling broader debates over the nation’s future. Examining legislative debates over the Reconstruction Acts, Freedmen’s Bureau, Bureau of Education, and two bills for national education reform in the early 1870s, this project examines how disparate educational visions of Republicans and Democrats collided and mutated amid the vicissitudes of public policy argument. Engaging rhetorical concepts of temporality, disposition, and political judgment, it examines the allure and limitations of education policy rhetoric, and how this rhetoric shifted amid the difficult process of coming to policy agreements in a tumultuous era. In a broader historical sense, this project considers the role of Reconstruction Era congressional rhetoric in shaping the long-term development of contemporary Americans’ “educational imaginary,” the tacit, often unarticulated assumptions about schooling that inflect how contemporary Americans engage in political life, civic judgment, and social reform. Treating the analysis of public policy debate as a way to gain insights into transitions in American political life, the study considers how Reconstruction Era debate converged upon certain common agreements, and obfuscated significant fault lines, that persist in contemporary arguments.

Essays in Long-run Development and Spatial Economics

This thesis tries to further our understanding for why some countries today are more prosperous than others. It establishes that part of today's observed variation in several proxies such as income or gender inequality have been determined in the distant past. Chapter one shows that 450 years of (Catholic) Portuguese colonisation had a long-lasting impact in India when it comes to education and female emancipation. Furthermore I use a historical quasi-experiment that happened 250 years ago in order to show that different outcomes have different degrees of persitence over time. Educational gaps between males and females seemingly wash out a few decades after the public provision of schools. The male biased sex-ratios on the other hand stay virtually unchanged despite governmental efforts. This provides evidence that deep rooted son preferences are much harder to overcome, suggesting that a differential approach is needed to tackle sex-selective abortion and female neglect. The second chapter proposes improvements for the execution of Spatial Regression Discontinuity Designs. These suggestions are accompanied by a full-fledged spatial statistical package written in R. Chapter three introduces a quantitative economic geography model in order to study the peculiar evolution of the European urban system on its way to the Industrial Revolution. It can explain the shift of economic gravity from the Mediterranean towards the North-Sea ("little divergence"). The framework provides novel insights on the importance of agricultural trade costs and the peculiar geography of Europe with its extended coastline and dense network of navigable rivers.

Essays in Applied and Labor Economics

This thesis consists of three chapters. First and second chapter include original research papers with the focus of health behavior and refugee migration. In the context of a high-income developing country, Turkey, I provide new insights for the established policy discussions in the literature. Then, third chapter reviews the literature and perspectives on the determinants of attitude formation towards migration policy and migrants. This chapter extends the discussion in Chapter 2 and aims at understanding the reasons of recent global trends in anti-migration attitudes. In Chapter 1, I investigate the effects of education on the early investments of mothers in their children aged between 0-5. Exploiting a compulsory schooling reform, I document the causal effects of education on young mothers' health investments during pregnancy and postnatal period. Results suggest that there are positive effects on the use of health care services, while no effects on breast- feeding or vaccination take-ups. These results can be put into context through newly implemented Health Transformation Program in the country. I show that educated mothers use new services more and empowerment effects of the education have a role in the service use. This study gives important policy lessons to improve mothers' health care use and early child conditions in developing countries. In Chapter 2, I investigate the effects of refugee inflow on the voting behavior of natives. I use a novel data provided by a telecommunication company, focus on pre and post refugee inflow elections and investigate the vote share of the party announced "open-door" policy. Analysis suggests that although refugees and natives are culturally closer than the Western country contexts, small negative effects documented are likely be driven by non-economic reasons. These findings bring a new perspective to understand why anti-immigrant sentiments are easy to use and manipulate.

Essays in Gender Economics

This thesis consists of three papers on gender economics. Chapter 1 studies whether people dislike collaborating with someone who corrects them and whether the dislike is stronger when that person is a woman. Having a good relationship with colleagues is integral in group work, potentially leading to successful collaborations. However, there are occasions when people have to correct their colleagues. Using a quasi-laboratory experiment, I find that people, including those with high productivity, are less willing to collaborate with a person who has corrected them even if the correction improves group performance. In addition, I find suggestive evidence that men respond more negatively to women’s corrections, which is not driven by their beliefs about the difference in women’s and men’s abilities. These findings suggest that there is a behavioral bias in group work that distorts the optimal selection of talents and penalizes those who correct others’ mistakes, and the distortion may be stronger when women correct men. Chapter 2 studies the role of gender and cognitive skills on other peoples’ generosity. Using a novel experimental design where I exogenously vary gender and cognitive skills and sufficiently powered analysis, I find neither the two attributes nor their interactions affect other people’s generosity; if anything, people are more generous to women with high potential. Chapter 3 studies how increased legal tolerance toward domestic violence affects married women’s welfare using the domestic violence decriminalization bill introduced to the Russian national congress in 2016. Using difference-in-differences and flexibly controlling for macroeconomic shocks, I find that the bill decreased married women’s life satisfaction and increased depression, especially among those with a college degree and a highly qualified white-collar occupation supposed to be more sensitive to gender regressive atmosphere. Consistent with this conjecture, people became more tolerant toward general and domestic violence after the bill.

Essays in Empirical Political Economics

This thesis takes two perspectives on political institutions. From the one side, it examines the long-run effects of institutions on cultural values. From the other side, I study strategic communication, and its determinants, of politicians, a pivotal actor inside those institutions. The first chapter provides evidence for the legacy of feudalism - a set of labor coercion and migration restrictions -, on interpersonal distrust. I combining administrative data on the feudal system in the Prussian Empire (1816 – 1849) with the geo-localized survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1980 – 2020). I show that areas with strong historical exposure to feudalism have lower levels of inter-personal trust today, by means of OLS- and mover specifications. The second chapter builds a novel dataset that includes the Twitter handles of 18,000+ politicians and 61+ million tweets from 2008 – 2021 from all levels of government. I find substantial partisan differences in Twitter adoption, Twitter activity and audience engagement. I use established tools to measure ideological polarization to provide evidence that online-polarization follows similar trends to offline-polarization, at comparable magnitude and reaches unprecedented heights in 2018 and 2021. I develop a new tool to demonstrate a marked increase in affective polarization. The third chapter tests whether politicians disseminate distortive messages when exposed to bad news. Specifically, I study the diffusion of misleading communication from pro-gun politicians in the aftermath of mass shootings. I exploit the random timing of mass shootings and analyze half a million tweets between 2010 – 2020 in an event-study design. I develop and apply state-of-the-art text analysis tools to show that pro- gun politicians seek to decrease the salience of the mass shooting through distraction and try to alter voters’ belief formation through misrepresenting the causes of the mass shootings.

Essays in political and gender economics

In the first chapter, “Political power and the influence of minorities: theory and evidence from Italy”, I analyze the relationship between minority and majority in politics, and how it can influence policy outcomes. I first present a theoretical model describing the possible consequences of an increase in a minority’s political power and show how it can increase difficulties in reaching a compromise on policy outcomes between parties. Furthermore, I empirically test these implications by exploiting the introduction in 2012 of a gender quota in Italian local elections: the increase in female politicians had heterogeneous effects on the level of funding for daycare, based on its differential effects on the share of women councillors. The second chapter, “Marriage patterns and the gender gap in labor force participation: evidence from Italy”, presents evidence highlighting a new possible determinant of the large gender gap in the Italian labor force: endogamy intensity. I argue that endogamy helps preserve social norms stigmatizing working women and reduces the probability of divorce, which disincentivizes women’s participation in the labor force. Endogamy is proxied by the degree of concentration of its surnames’ distribution, and I provide evidence that a more intense custom of endogamy contributed to enlarging gender participation gaps across Italian municipalities in 2001. The third chapter, “Information and quality of politicians: is transparency helping voters?”, studies how voting choices are affected by giving voters more personal information on candidates. I exploit the introduction of the “Spazzacorrotti” law in Italy in 2019, which imposed candidates at local elections to publish their CVs and criminal records before elections. I find no effects on elected candidates’ age, gender, educational level, or ideology. Moreover, I present anecdotal evidence that candidates with a criminal record received fewer votes on average, but only in the case of local media exposing it.

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese households' demand for electricity

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Measuring poverty in Portugal: an absolute approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The use of technology in Portuguese hospitals: The case of MRI

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Price linkages in pharmaceutical markets

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics