The Inflation Risk Premium on Government Debt in an Overlapping Generations Model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which nominal government debt pays an inflation risk premium. The model predicts that the inflation risk premium will be higher in economies which are exposed to unanticipated inflation through nominal asset holdings. In particular, the inflation risk premium is higher when government debt is primarily nominal, steady-state inflation is low, and when cash and nominal debt account for a large fraction of consumers' retirement portfolios. These channels do not appear to have been highlighted in previous models or tested empirically. Numerical results suggest that the inflation risk premium is comparable in magnitude to standard representative agent models. These findings have implications for management of government debt, since the inflation risk premium makes it more costly for governments to borrow using nominal rather than indexed debt. Simulations of an extended model with Epstein-Zin preferences suggest that increasing the share of indexed debt would enable governments to permanently lower taxes by an amount that is quantitatively non-trivial.

Tractable Consumer Choice

We derive a rational model of separable consumer choice which can also serve as a behavioral model. The central construct is [lambda] , the marginal utility of money, derived from the consumer's rest-of-life problem. We present a robust approximation of [lambda], and show how to incorporate liquidity constraints, indivisibilities and adaptation to a changing environment. We fi nd connections with numerous historical and recent constructs, both behavioral and neoclassical, and draw contrasts with standard partial equilibrium analysis. The result is a better grounded, more flexible and more intuitive description of consumer choice.

A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting

In this paper, I provide a formal justi…cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi…fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.

A Model of Party Discipline in a Congress

This paper studies party discipline in a congress within a political agency framework with retrospective voting. Party discipline serves as an incentive device to induce office- motivated congress members to perform in line with the party leadership's objective of controlling both the executive and the legislative branches of government. I show fi…rst that the same party is more likely to control both branches of government (i.e., uni…ed government) the stronger the party discipline in the congress is. Second, the leader of the governing party imposes more party discipline under uni…ed government than does the opposition leader under divided government. Moreover, the incumbents' aggregate performance increases with party discipline, so a representative voter becomes better off. JEL classi…cation: D72. Keywords: Party discipline; Political agency; Retrospective voting; Office-motivated politicians.

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.

Consumer Focused Review of Men's Food Behaviour

Increasing attention has been paid to the burden of ill-health experienced by men in many Western countries. In Europe and internationally, the Republic of Ireland has been leading the way by developing a national policy for men’s health. In most countries around the world, women now have a longer life expectancy than men. Similarly, on the island of Ireland, in spite of recent increases in men’s life expectancy, men continue to have higher death rates at all ages and from all leading causes of death. In Northern Ireland, in 2010, men’s life expectancy at birth was 77.08 years (81.53 years for women), while in the Republic of Ireland, figures published in 2009 revealed that men’s life expectancy at birth was 76.8 years (compared to 81.6 years for women). Key health issues for men include circulatory diseases, cancers and respiratory diseases. In relation to food and health, obesity has been highlighted as a major concern in relation to men’s health. While physiological difference between men and women explain some of the variation in the rate and/or onset of disease (e.g., protective effects of oestrogen in relation to the onset of cardiovascular diseases), other factors, such as socio-cultural influences, which are the main focus of this report, also play an important role. It is acknowledged that men and women experience different influences and motivations with respect to their knowledge and attitudes of and behaviours towards food and health. The purpose of this report is therefore not to compare men with women or to encourage men to model themselves on women in relation to their food and health behaviour. Rather, the goal is to provide recommendations to improve communications, resources, interventions, education and services targeted at boys and men in relation to food.

Cross-validation of bioelectrical impedance analysis for the assessment of body composition in a representative sample of 6- to 13-year-old children.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: (1) To cross-validate tetra- (4-BIA) and octopolar (8-BIA) bioelectrical impedance analysis vs dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for the assessment of total and appendicular body composition and (2) to evaluate the accuracy of external 4-BIA algorithms for the prediction of total body composition, in a representative sample of Swiss children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A representative sample of 333 Swiss children aged 6-13 years from the Kinder-Sportstudie (KISS) (ISRCTN15360785). Whole-body fat-free mass (FFM) and appendicular lean tissue mass were measured with DXA. Body resistance (R) was measured at 50 kHz with 4-BIA and segmental body resistance at 5, 50, 250 and 500 kHz with 8-BIA. The resistance index (RI) was calculated as height(2)/R. Selection of predictors (gender, age, weight, RI4 and RI8) for BIA algorithms was performed using bootstrapped stepwise linear regression on 1000 samples. We calculated 95% confidence intervals (CI) of regression coefficients and measures of model fit using bootstrap analysis. Limits of agreement were used as measures of interchangeability of BIA with DXA. RESULTS: 8-BIA was more accurate than 4-BIA for the assessment of FFM (root mean square error (RMSE)=0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) vs 1.12 kg (1.01-1.24); limits of agreement 1.80 to -1.80 kg vs 2.24 to -2.24 kg). 8-BIA also gave accurate estimates of appendicular body composition, with RMSE < or = 0.10 kg for arms and < or = 0.24 kg for legs. All external 4-BIA algorithms performed poorly with substantial negative proportional bias (r> or = 0.48, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a representative sample of young Swiss children (1) 8-BIA was superior to 4-BIA for the prediction of FFM, (2) external 4-BIA algorithms gave biased predictions of FFM and (3) 8-BIA was an accurate predictor of segmental body composition.

PARP inhibition attenuates histopathological lesion in ischemia/reperfusion renal mouse model after cold prolonged ischemia.

We test the hypothesis that PARP inhibition can decrease acute tubular necrosis (ATN) and other renal lesions related to prolonged cold ischemia/reperfusion (IR) in kidneys preserved at 4°C in University of Wisconsin (UW) solution. Material and Methods. We used 30 male Parp1(+/+) wild-type and 15 male Parp1(0/0) knockout C57BL/6 mice. Fifteen of these wild-type mice were pretreated with 3,4-dihydro-5-[4-(1-piperidinyl)butoxyl]-1(2H)-isoquinolinone (DPQ) at a concentration of 15 mg/kg body weight, used as PARP inhibitor. Subgroups of mice were established (A: IR 45 min/6 h; B: IR + 48 h in UW solution; and C: IR + 48 h in UW solution plus DPQ). We processed samples for morphological, immunohistochemical, ultrastructural, and western-blotting studies. Results. Prolonged cold ischemia time in UW solution increased PARP-1 expression and kidney injury. Preconditioning with PARP inhibitor DPQ plus DPQ supplementation in UW solution decreased PARP-1 nuclear expression in renal tubules and renal damage. Parp1(0/0) knockout mice were more resistant to IR-induced renal lesion. In conclusion, PARP inhibition attenuates ATN and other IR-related renal lesions in mouse kidneys under prolonged cold storage in UW solution. If confirmed, these data suggest that pharmacological manipulation of PARP activity may have salutary effects in cold-stored organs at transplantation.

PARP inhibition attenuates histopathological lesion in ischemia/reperfusion renal mouse model after cold prolonged ischemia.

We test the hypothesis that PARP inhibition can decrease acute tubular necrosis (ATN) and other renal lesions related to prolonged cold ischemia/reperfusion (IR) in kidneys preserved at 4°C in University of Wisconsin (UW) solution. Material and Methods. We used 30 male Parp1(+/+) wild-type and 15 male Parp1(0/0) knockout C57BL/6 mice. Fifteen of these wild-type mice were pretreated with 3,4-dihydro-5-[4-(1-piperidinyl)butoxyl]-1(2H)-isoquinolinone (DPQ) at a concentration of 15 mg/kg body weight, used as PARP inhibitor. Subgroups of mice were established (A: IR 45 min/6 h; B: IR + 48 h in UW solution; and C: IR + 48 h in UW solution plus DPQ). We processed samples for morphological, immunohistochemical, ultrastructural, and western-blotting studies. Results. Prolonged cold ischemia time in UW solution increased PARP-1 expression and kidney injury. Preconditioning with PARP inhibitor DPQ plus DPQ supplementation in UW solution decreased PARP-1 nuclear expression in renal tubules and renal damage. Parp1(0/0) knockout mice were more resistant to IR-induced renal lesion. In conclusion, PARP inhibition attenuates ATN and other IR-related renal lesions in mouse kidneys under prolonged cold storage in UW solution. If confirmed, these data suggest that pharmacological manipulation of PARP activity may have salutary effects in cold-stored organs at transplantation.

Plasma Elaidic Acid Level as Biomarker of Industrial Trans Fatty Acids and Risk of Weight Change: Report from the EPIC Study.

BACKGROUND Few epidemiological studies have examined the association between dietary trans fatty acids and weight gain, and the evidence remains inconsistent. The main objective of the study was to investigate the prospective association between biomarker of industrial trans fatty acids and change in weight within the large study European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS Baseline plasma fatty acid concentrations were determined in a representative EPIC sample from the 23 participating EPIC centers. A total of 1,945 individuals were followed for a median of 4.9 years to monitor weight change. The association between elaidic acid level and percent change of weight was investigated using a multinomial logistic regression model, adjusted by length of follow-up, age, energy, alcohol, smoking status, physical activity, and region. RESULTS In women, doubling elaidic acid was associated with a decreased risk of weight loss (odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.55-0.88, p = 0.002) and a trend was observed with an increased risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.97-1.56, p = 0.082) (p-trend<.0001). In men, a trend was observed for doubling elaidic acid level and risk of weight loss (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.66-1.01, p = 0.062) while no significant association was found with risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.88-1.33, p = 0.454). No association was found for saturated and cis-monounsaturated fatty acids. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that a high intake of industrial trans fatty acids may decrease the risk of weight loss, particularly in women. Prevention of obesity should consider limiting the consumption of highly processed foods, the main source of industrially-produced trans fatty acids.

Qualités psychométriques du Consumer satisfaction questionnaire (CSQ-8) et du Helping alliance questionnaire (HAQ) [Psychometric properties of the Consumer Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-8) and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ)].

BACKGROUND: This study was based on data from a quality of care assessment survey conducted in 2011 in outpatient polyclinics of the Vaud Canton in Switzerland, comprising questionnaires completed by 568 children over the age often and 672 parents of children of all ages. The objective of this study was to evaluate the psychometric qualities of the eight-item French versions for children of the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ) and the Consumer Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-8) to allow formal validation and clinical application of these tools in the context of French-speaking child psychiatry. METHODOLOGY: Responses from children over the age often to the HAQ and CSQ-8 questionnaires were submitted to confirmatory factorial analysis (CFA) for ordinal data to verify their good fit with the original long versions. Construct validity (correspondence between scores on the scales and other external criteria considered to evaluate similar concepts) of the child questionnaires was tested by Spearman's correlation with the parents' responses and their feeling of being reassured or in agreement with respect to the first visit, and with the perception of the help provided by individual and family interviews. RESULTS: CFA showed an acceptable fit with the one-dimensional model of the original scales, both for the HAQ and the CSQ-8. Significant positive correlations of the scales with the parents' responses and with other convergent external criteria confirmed the good construct validity. CONCLUSIONS: These psychometric analyses provide a basis for the validation and clinical application of the abridged French versions of the HAQ and CSQ-8 in quality of care assessment in child psychiatry.

Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality, October 2005

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the relationship between the expected number of repeated purchases by an individual customer is endogenous to the choice of quality by the firm, indicating that the number of purchases cannot be chosen freely to estimate a customer’s lifetime value.

Union activism in an inclusive model of industrial relations : evidence from an Spanish case

In this article we analyze the reasons, within the context of Spanish industrial relations, for trade union members’ active participation in their regional union. The case of Spain is particularly interesting as the unions’ main activity, collective bargaining, is a public good. The text, based on research involving a representative survey of members of a regional branch of the “Workers” Commissions” (Comisiones Obreras) trade union, provides empirical evidence that the union presence in the workplace has a significant influence on members’ propensity for activism. By contrast, the alternative hypothesis based on instrumental reasons appears of little relevance in the Spanish industrial relations context.

The use of the quality model of Parasuraman, Zeithaml and Berry in health services

This is an article about the theoretical model for assessing quality in health services proposed by Parasuraman, Zheitaml and Berry, in order to measure the degree of satisfaction of users. This model is based on the analysis of expectations and perceptions of users of health services, by means of five dimensions: tangibility, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy. From the difference between what is expected by the user and the service offered, gaps or shortcomings are derived that may be the main obstacle for users to perceive the provision of such services with quality. It was observed that the use of the psychometric scale called Service Quality (SERVQUAL) in some studies about satisfaction, obtained very favorable results in the institutions in which it was employed. The analysis revealed the need to improve the existing models of evaluation, as well as the importance of measuring user satisfaction in health institutions.

Consumer Satisfaction with Websites of Banks - The Moderating Effect of Consumer Technology Attractiveness

The websites are becoming the firms’ first contact interface with their clients. Hence, understanding customers’ online attitudes and behaviors have been capturing increased research attention. The extant research has pointed customers’ satisfaction with the websites as the main reason for customers’ online behaviors. This research has used mostly variables related to the characteristics of the websites as the predictors of customers’ website satisfaction. However, recent research shows that groups of individuals displaying distinctive characteristics react differently to the same context. Therefore, behavior may be considerably different among groups of customers. In this study, we develop a conceptual model of the influence of individual characteristics on the traditional website quality – website satisfaction relationship. We propose a model based on the construct of consumer technology attractiveness (CTA) to represent the genuine positive propensity of individuals toward technology. We further test the moderating effect of this construct on the commonly used predictors of customer’s website satisfaction using Hierarchical Multiple Regression. The empirical study was based on websites of banks operating in Portuguese market. The commercial banking industry is one of the Portuguese industries that better uses the Internet to establish relationships with clients. Data were collected through an online website satisfaction survey, participated by the lecturers and postgraduate students from four Portuguese Universities and Polytechnic Institutes. Our final sample comprised 276 valid questionnaires. Our study permits to conclude that the most commonly used antecedents of website overall satisfaction are still relevant for analyzing consumer’s satisfaction with the banks websites. We also conclude that CTA has a significant moderating effect on almost all customers’ website satisfaction variables used in the study. This study contributes to highlight the theoretical importance and significant influence of consumers’ personal characteristics on their online behavior. Moreover, for the practitioners, a better understanding of these individual characteristics will assist them in developing customized websites that will meet customers’ expectations. O estudo dos comportamentos dos consumidores em ambientes online tem vindo a ter um crescente interesse, uma vez que os websites estão a transformar-se num importante ponto de contacto entre as empresas e os seus clientes. A satisfação dos clientes com os websites tem sido apontada pela Literatura como o principal condicionante dos comportamentos online dos consumidores. No entanto, a investigação científica tem conseguido provar que grupos de indivíduos com características distintas reagem de forma diferente quando submetidos a contextos idênticos, o que poderá levar a diferenças significativas no comportamento online de consumidores pertencentes a diferentes grupos. Neste estudo desenvolvemos um modelo conceptual que reflecte a influência de características individuais na relação entre a qualidade e a satisfação com os websites. Propomos um modelo assente na atractividade tecnológica do consumidor (CTA), que representa a propensão genuína que os indivíduos possuem em relação à tecnologia. Testamos o efeito moderador deste conceito sobre as variáveis mais utilizadas nos estudos sobre a satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, utilizando a Regressão Múltipla Hierárquica. O estudo empírico baseou-se nos websites dos bancos que operam no mercado português, uma vez que este sector é um dos que melhor utiliza a Internet na sua relação com os clientes. Os dados foram recolhidos através de um questionário sobre satisfação com os websites, colocado online e dirigido a docentes e estudantes de programas de pós-graduações, mestrados e doutoramentos de quatro universidades e instituto politécnico portugueses, tendo resultado numa amostra final de 276 questionários validados estatisticamente. Este estudo permitiu concluir que as variáveis que são mais utilizadas como antecedentes da satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, continuam a ser igualmente válidas para a análise dos websites dos bancos. Também concluímos que a CTA tem efeitos moderadores significativos na grande maioria das variáveis utilizadas neste estudo. Assim, conseguimos realçar a importância teórica das características pessoais dos consumidores no seu comportamento online. Para os gestores, uma melhor compreensão destas características individuais permitir-lhes-á desenvolver websites customizados que irão satisfazer as expectativas dos seus clientes.