Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

Sistema partidário, representação e eleições presidenciais: uma análise sobre evangélicos e política no Brasil

Nesta dissertação abordamos a relação entre o protestantismo e a política no Brasil levando em conta, o contexto histórico-político da formação do sistema partidário brasileiro, a representação evangélica na política e o comportamento eleitoral evangélico no que se refere às eleições para presidente. Argumentamos que tal fenômeno se explica por algumas especificidades relativas ao sistema político partidário e eleitoral brasileiro, para além de peculiaridades que concernem ao campo religioso evangélico, tais quais o seu crescimento demográfico ou o posicionamento de suas lideranças, sobretudo se colocado o caso brasileiro em perspectiva comparada, conforme o investimos em relação ao rígido modelo chileno de representação política. Por conseguinte, abordamos o comportamento do eleitorado evangélico durante as últimas eleições presidenciais, a fim de compreendermos os efeitos do sistema partidário sobre estas escolhas, bem como os fatores passíveis de destacar esta parcela do eleitorado do conjunto dos votantes brasileiros, como a identidade evangélica do candidato à presidência ou ainda a presença de temáticas morais religiosas relevantes para este segmento do eleitorado brasileiro.

Religião e política: construção da memória de Dom Adriano Hypólito

O presente trabalho discute a interdependência entre religião e política no âmbito da ação pastoral da Diocese de Nova Iguaçu no bispado de Dom Adriano Hypólito, que foi nomeado em 1966 bispo diocesano. No discurso e práticas sociais realizados por Dom Adriano Hypólito observa-se a base dessa interdependência. Por isso, a pesquisa procura analisar os discursos proferidos pelo bispo em documentos como A Folha e o Boletim Diocesano para mensurar seu posicionamento em relação à fé e política. Através das entrevistas concedidas por padres e leigos engajados busca-se regatar a memória do Bispo de Nova Iguaçu, que em decorrência de sua postura e opção preferencial pelos pobres sofre perseguições e é torturado no âmbito da Ditadura Civil-Militar no Brasil. Para corroborar tais elementos, procura-se fazer uma análise antropológica do memorial, construído um ano após de seu falecimento. Salienta-se que os objetos que se encontram nesse memorial se materializam como lugar-memória, e que se traduzem numa linguagem político-religiosa. Dessa forma, procura-se localizar nesse espaço como a memória de Dom Adriano está sendo transmitida e de que forma seu trabalho pastoral é recuperado nessa construção. A pesquisa também procura recuperar os discursos do Bispo Dom Adriano e a contribuição dos mesmos para a formação do laicato que através da conscientização e formação nas bases da Igreja engajar-se-ão em movimentos sociais, em partidos políticos e em sindicatos.

Coevolution of capitalism and political representation: The choice of electoral systems

Protocorporatist West European countries in which economic interests were collectively organized adopted PR in the first quarter of the twentieth century, whereas liberal countries in which economic interests were not collectively organized did not. Political parties, as Marcus Kreuzer points out, choose electoral systems. So how do economic interests translate into party political incentives to adopt electoral reform? We argue that parties in protocorporatist countries were representative of and closely linked to economic interests. As electoral competition in single member districts increased sharply up to World War I, great difficulties resulted for the representative parties whose leaders were seen as interest committed. They could not credibly compete for votes outside their interest without leadership changes or reductions in interest influence. Proportional representation offered an obvious solution, allowing parties to target their own voters and their organized interest to continue effective influence in the legislature. In each respect, the opposite was true of liberal countries. Data on party preferences strongly confirm this model. (Kreuzer's historical criticisms are largely incorrect, as shown in detail in the online supplementary Appendix.). © 2010 American Political Science Association.

Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using words as Data

We present a new way of extracting policy positions from political texts that treats texts not as discourses to be understood and interpreted but rather, as data in the form of words. We compare this approach to previous methods of text analysis and use it to replicate published estimates of the policy positions of political parties in Britain and Ireland, on both economic and social policy dimensions. We “export” the method to a non-English-language environment, analyzing the policy positions of German parties, including the PDS as it entered the former West German party system. Finally, we extend its application beyond the analysis of party manifestos, to the estimation of political positions from legislative speeches. Our “language-blind” word scoring technique successfully replicates published policy estimates without the substantial costs of time and labor that these require. Furthermore, unlike in any previous method for extracting policy positions from political texts, we provide uncertainty measures for our estimates, allowing analysts to make informed judgments of the extent to which differences between two estimated policy positions can be viewed as significant or merely as products of measurement error.

Realising political equality: the European Court of Human Rights and positive obligations in a democracy'

The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) speaks of the importance of an “effective political democracy” in its Preamble, though it is only in Article 3 of Protocol 1 (P1-3) that we find a right to free elections. This paper discusses the role of “positive obligations” under P1-3. This paper outlines the positive obligations in P1-3 focusing on obligations where the state is required to do more than just change the law. This may mean providing resources or facilities, adopting regulatory frameworks or creating new institutions. The paper highlights specific positive obligations that need to be further developed in the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). Sometimes these can be developed by analogy with positive obligations recognised in other areas of ECtHR jurisprudence. However, beyond these cases, states should ensure that members of vulnerable and disadvantaged minorities are able to participate in the electoral process and should ensure that dominant political groups cannot abuse their political power to exclude other parties unfairly. This is necessary to realise equal political rights. The second section of this paper sketches some preliminary points about the Strasbourg institutions’ approach to P1-3. After that, the third section identifies circumstances where the ECtHR should apply a more intense scrutiny in P1-3 cases. The fourth, fifth and sixth sections look at positive obligations relating to the right to vote, the right to run for election and the regulation of political parties.

Convergence/Divergence: Party political discourse in Northern Ireland's transition from conflict

This paper illuminates the role of political language in a peace process through analysing the discourse used by political parties in Northern Ireland. What matters, it seems, is not whether party discourses converge or diverge but rather how, and in what ways, they do so. In the case of Northern Ireland, there remains strong divergence between discourses regarding the ethos of unionist and nationalist parties. As a consequence, core definitions of identity, culture, norms and principle remain common grounds for competition within nationalism and unionism. There has, however, been a significant shift towards convergence between unionist and nationalist parties in their discourses on power and governance, specifically among the now predominant (hardline) and the smaller (moderate) parties. The argument thus elaborated is that political transition from conflict need not necessarily entail the creation of a “shared discourse” between all parties. Indeed, points of divergence between parties’ discourses of power and ethos are as important for a healthy post-conflict democratic environment as the elements of convergence between them.

Measuring party organization: The vertical dimension of the multilevel organization of statewide parties in Spain and the UK

Over the past few years, attention to the role of state-wide political parties in multi-level polities has increased in recognition of their linkage function between levels of government, as these parties compete in both state-wide and regional elections across their countries. This article presents a coding scheme designed to describe the relationship between central and regional levels of state-wide parties. It evaluates the involvement of the regional branches in central decision-making and their degree of autonomy in the management of regional party affairs. This coding scheme is applied to state-wide parties in Spain (the socialist PSOE and the conservative Partido Popular) and in the UK (Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats). It is an additional tool with which to analyse party organization and it facilitates the comparison of parties across regions and in different countries.

Devolution and party organizational change: The British and Spanish and state-wide parties compared

This article investigates the link between regionalization of the structure of government, regional elections and regionalism on the one hand, and the organization of state-wide political parties in Spain and the UK on the other. It particularly looks at two aspects of the relations between the central and regional levels of party organization: integration of the regional branches in central decision making and autonomy of the regional branches. It argues that the party factors are the most crucial elements explaining party change and that party leaders mediate between environmental changes and party organization. The parties' history and beliefs and the strength of the central leadership condition their ability or willingness to facilitate the emergence of meso-level elites. The institutional and electoral factors are facilitating factors that constitute additional motives for or against internal party decentralization

Legislating for political gender quotas in Ireland

In July 2012, legislation on political party funding and candidate gender quotas was enacted by the Irish Parliament. The Electoral (Amendment) (Political Funding) Act 2012 provides for a 30% gender quota for party candidates at the next general election, rising to 40% seven years thereafter. Non-compliant parties will lose half of their annual state funding. Informed by insights from feminist institutionalism, this paper will consider the question: why did Irish political parties, who have always been so reluctant to tackle the question of women’s under-representation, suddenly do a volte-face and introduce such a radical measure as legislative gender quotas? In answering this question, we argue that the political reform discourse that emerged following the recent Irish economic crisis was a significant factor in the adoption of legislative gender quotas in the Republic of Ireland. It signified, and made visible, the divergence between politicians and the public on the issue in a context where political representatives were under question, and political institutions being criticised, for ineffective political management. We contend that Ireland is an example of how apparently enduring and immutable gender norms can be overcome. We suggest that feminist institutionalism enables an unpacking of the messy complexities of institutional resistance to change and reveals the power of informal institutions to shape outcomes leading to a major formal rule change.

The Glasgow 2014 XX Commonwealth Games and Scottish Independence: “Political Truce” or Political Truth(s)?

This paper explores the political reaction to Lord McConnell’s appeal for a political ‘truce’ in the form of a temporary halt to campaigning by all political parties and organisations involved in the debate regarding the Scottish independence referendum during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games (BBC, 2014; McConnell, 2014). Urging both sides of the debate to cease campaigning for the two-week period of the Glasgow 2014 games, the current Labour peer and past First Minister of the Scottish Parliament cited concerns that there are “genuine concerns that the Games, and the image of Scotland, could be damaged by attempts by either side – for and against – to use the Games to promote their cause, or to use the venues for campaigning” (McConnell, 2014). Drawing upon the principles of both a critical discourse and a narrative analysis methodological approach, this paper will scrutinise the nature of the political reactions to McConnell’s proposal from a variety of perspectives on both sides of the independence referendum debate. In particular, the emphasis in the responses from both sides of the debate regarding the apolitical nature of the 2014 Games will be critiqued, drawing upon the arguments of past analyses of sporting mega-events which highlight the potential for political exploitation of such events by the host nations (e.g. Horne, 2007; Grix, 2012; Houlihan and Giulianotti, 2012; Roche, 2006). Furthermore, the findings of academic research on the political implications of hosting the Commonwealth Games will be considered (e.g. Majumdar and Mehta, 2010; Van Der Westhuizen, 2004; Macintosh and Greenhorn, 1992; Majumdar, 2011; Lockstone and Baum, 2010; Macfarlane and Herd, 1986), highlighting a number of precedents which demonstrate the numerous challenges faced in any attempts to the keep the 2014 Games free from political influence.

Parties in democratic national assemblies: comparative assessment of parliaments note

This paper argues that the analysis of democratic national assemblies is not only impossible without discussing political parties, but also incomprehensible without recognizing parties as the most significant organizations within them. Parties have structured political groupings and demands on government even before assemblies were democratically elected. And although parties may be in decline as institutions mediating between society and government in the current era, they remain significant as organizing forces within government. The paper first explains the origins of party organizations within parliaments by exploring why individual members and the assemblies taken as a whole need parties: what are their costs and benefits? It then describes the manner in which party organizations operate in different national assembly chambers. The third section analyses types and sources of party influence, including the role played by party leaders in manipulating legislative agendas, structuring Members’ policy choices and shaping policy outcomes. The final section reviews how politi- cal scientists have sought to explain intra-party cohesion and discipline across different national assemblies.

The waning of the two giants: the electoral decline of the Italian Christian Democratic Party and the Italian Communist Party

Italy is currently experiencing profound political change. One aspect of this change involves the decline in electoral support for the Italian Christian Democratic Party (DC) and the Italian Communist Party (PCI), now the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS). Signs of the electoral decline of both parties began to appear in the late 1970s and early 1980s and accelerated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The pr imar y purpos e of th is thes is is to expla i n the electoral decline of the DC and PCI/PDS in the last decade. The central question being addressed in this thesis is the following: What factors contributed to the decline in electoral support for the DC and PCI? In addition, the thesis attempts to better comprehend the change in magni tude and direction of the Italian party system. The thesis examines the central question within an analytical framework that consists of models explaining electoral change in advanced industrial democracies and in Italy. A review of the literature on electoral change in Italy reveals three basic models: structural (socioeconomic and demographic factors), subcultural (the decline of the Catholic and Communist subcultures), and pol i tical (factors such as party strategy, and the crisis and collapse of communism in iv Eastern Europe and the former soviet Union and the end to the Cold War). Significant structural changes have occurred in Italy, but they do not invariably hurt or benefit either party. The Catholic and Communist subcultures have declined in size and strength, but only gradually. More importantly, the study discovers that the decline of communism and party strategy adversely affected the electoral performances of the DC and PC!. The basic conclusion is that political factors primarily and directly contributed to the decline in electoral support for both parties, while societal factors (structural and subcultural changes) played a secondary and indirect role. While societal factors do not contribute directly to the decline in electoral support for both parties, they do provide the context within which both parties operated. In addition, the Italian party system is becoming more fragmented and traditional political parties are losing electoral support to new political movements, such as the Lega Nord (LN-Northern League) and the Rete (Network). The growing importance of the North-South and centre-periphery cleavages suggests that the Italian party system, which is traditionally based on religious and ideological cleavages, may be changing.

Essays in political economy

Cette thése relie trois articles sur l'économie politique. Ces articles analysent à la fois théoriquement et empiriquement si, et dans quelle mesure, trois phénomènes politiques différents (les partis politiques, les guerres civiles et les menaces externes), et leur interaction, influent sur les résultats économiques. Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact de la présence au pouvoir des politiciens de nouveaux partis politiques sur la taille du gouvernement. Le chapitre se concentre sur les municipalités colombiennes, où les nouveaux partis politiques ont été nombreux et fructueux au cours des dernières années. Les estimations par régressions sur discontinuité montrent que les dépenses publiques et les recettes fiscales sont significativement plus élevées dans les municipalités gouvernées par un maire d'un nouveau parti politique. En utilisant des informations sur la politique locale et des caractéristiques des nouveaux partis, je soutiens que ce résultat peut être expliqué par le fait qu'il y a moins d'information sur les politiciens de nouveaux partis que les politiciens des partis traditionnels. Le deuxième chapitre développe une nouvelle explication de l'impact des guerres civiles et des conflits interétatiques sur le state-building qui repose sur l'idée que les protagonistes de ces deux types de conflits peuvent avoir un lien (ethnique ou idéologique). Un premier résultat montre que la force de ce lien détermine si les conflits contre des adversaires internes (i.e. guerres civiles) ou des ennemis externes (i.e. conflits interétatiques) sont complémentaires ou se substituent, conduisant à plus ou moins d'investissement en capacité fiscale. La théorie prédit également un rôle non trivial de la stabilité politique dans la relation entre les deux types de conflits et la capacité fiscale: un deuxième résultat montre que, bien que la stabilité politique se traduit par moins de capacité fiscale, plus de stabilité n'implique pas plus de state-building. Leur équivalence dépend du niveau de cohésion des institutions. Un nouveau mécanisme par lequel plus de stabilité politique peut impliquer moins de state-building est proposé. En outre, il est démontré que des corrélations dans les données cross-country sont compatibles avec la théorie. Le troisième chapitre examine la relation entre la probabilité d'occurrence d'un conflit intérieur violent et le risque qu'un tel conflit "s'externalise" (c'est à dire se propage dans un autre pays en devenant un conflit interétatique). Je considère une situation dans laquelle un conflit interne entre un gouvernement et un groupe rebelle peut s'externaliser. Je montre que le risque d'externalisation augmente la probabilité d'un accord de paix, mais seulement si le gouvernement est suffisamment puissant par rapport aux rebelles, et si le risque d'externalisation est suffisamment élevé. Je montre comment ce modèle aide à comprendre les récents pourparlers de paix entre le gouvernement colombien et le groupe le plus puissant des rebelles dans le pays, les FARC.

Un groupe religieux à l’épreuve du parti politique Sécularisation de l’islamisme au Maroc : mouvement de l’unicité et de la réforme-Parti de la justice et du développement (1996-2011)

Thèse présentée en cotutelle en vue de l’obtention des grades de Philosophiae Doctor (Ph.D.) en Sciences des Religions de l’Université de Montréal et de Docteur en Sociologie de l’École Pratique des Hautes Études Paris-Sorbonne