Civil-Military Relations in Croatia: Politicisation and Politics of Reform.

This article argues that since 2000 successive Croatian governments have shown themselves increasingly dedicated to reforming civil-military relations. However, their efforts have been hampered by four key obstacles. First, the need to implement defence reforms in the context of an unwieldy set of civil-military relationships, political and institutional rivalries, a lack of civil and military defence expertise and a continuing legacy of politicisation. Second, the need to cut defence spending as a proportion of the overall budget whilst taking on new military roles and improving the capability of the armed forces. Third, the need to balance the demands of the NATO accession process while implementing a balanced and fundamental reform of the armed forces as a whole. Finally, the need to implement root and branch personnel reforms and downsizing in the OSRH while simultaneously recruiting and retaining quality personnel and addressing the wider social issue of unemployment.

L'Australie et la Nouvelle-Zélande:deux puissances régionales contraintes à l’action

Somehow, almost despite themselves, Australia and New Zealand have become regional powers. First burdened with colonial duties then abandoned by their mother country, Australia and New Zealand had little choice but to ensure their own security and development, a goal necessarily founded on regional action, although their geostrategic environment would sometimes impact differently on each power. However, growing instability in the South Pacific from the end of the 1990s constrained both to seek new and stronger roles in the region. Between neo-colonialism and the imperatives of regional security, Australia and New Zealand were left with no other choice but to react.

Armenia's foreign policy, 1991–2004: Between history and geopolitics

This dissertation is the first systematic study of Armenia’s foreign policy during the post-independence period, between 1991 and 2004. It argues that a small state’s foreign policy is best understood when looking at the regional level. Armenia’s geographic proximity to Iran, Russia and Turkey, places it in an area of heightened geopolitical interest by various great powers. This dissertation explores four sets of relationships with Armenia’s major historical ‘partners’: Russia, Iran, Turkey and the West (Europe and the United States). Each relationship reveals a complex reality of a continuous negotiation between ideas of history, collective memory, nationalism and geopolitics. A detailed study of Armenia’s relations with these powers demonstrates how actors’ relations of amity and enmity are formed to constitute a regional security complex. Turkey represents the ultimate “other”, while both Europe and Iran are seen as ideational “others”, whose role in Armenia’s foreign policy, aside from pragmatic policy considerations, reflects a normative quest. Russia and the United States, on the other hand, represent the powerful structural forces that define the regional security complex, in which Armenia operates. This dissertation argues that although Armenia has been severely constrained in certain foreign policy choices, it was adept at carving a space for action that privileged the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh over other geopolitical imperatives.

Capabilities of Police and Military Forces in Central America -- A Comparative Analysis of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras an d Nicaragua

A difficult transition to a new paradigm of Democratic Security and the subsequent process of military restructuring during the nineties led El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua to re-consider their old structures and functions of their armed forces and police agencies. This study compares the institutions in the four countries mentioned above to assess their current condition and response capacity in view of the contemporary security challenges in Central America. This report reveals that the original intention of limiting armies to defend and protect borders has been threatened by the increasing participation of armies in public security. While the strength of armies has been consolidated in terms of numbers, air and naval forces have failed to become strengthened or sufficiently developed to effectively combat organized crime and drug trafficking and are barely able to conduct air and sea operations. Honduras has been the only country that has maintained a proportional distribution of its armed forces. However, security has been in the hands of a Judicial Police, supervised by the Public Ministry. The Honduran Judicial Police has been limited to exercising preventive police duties, prohibited from carrying out criminal investigations. Nicaragua, meanwhile, possesses a successful police force, socially recognized for maintaining satisfactory levels of security surpassing the Guatemalan and El Salvadoran police, which have not achieved similar results despite of having set up a civilian police force separate from the military. El Salvador meanwhile, has excelled in promoting a Police Academy and career professional education, even while not having military attachés in other countries. Regarding budgetary issues, the four countries allocate almost twice the amount of funding on their security budgets in comparison to what is allocated to their defense budgets. However, spending in both areas is low when taking into account each country's GDP as well as their high crime rates. Regional security challenges must be accompanied by a professionalization of the regional armies focused on protecting and defending borders. Therefore, strong institutional frameworks to support the fight against crime and drug trafficking are required. It will require the strengthening of customs, greater control of illicit arms trafficking, investment in education initiatives, creating employment opportunities and facilitating significant improvements in the judicial system, as well as its accessibility to the average citizen.

Guatemala: A Failing State?

 Guatemala is not a failed state and is unlikely to become one in the near future. Although the state currently fails to provide adequate security to its citizens or an appropriate range of effective social programs, it does supply a functioning electoral democracy, sound economic management, and a promising new antipoverty program, My Family Progresses (MIFAPRO).  Guatemala is a weak state. The principal security threats represented by expanding Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), criminal parallel powers, and urban gangs have overwhelmed the resources of the under-resourced and compromised criminal justice system. The UN-sponsored International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), however, has demonstrated that progress against organized crime is possible.  The principal obstacles to strengthening the Guatemalan state lie in the traditional economic elite’s resistance to taxation and the venal political class’ narrow focus on short-term interests. Guatemala lacks a strong, policyoriented, mass-based political party that could develop a coherent national reform program and mobilize public support around it.  The United States should strengthen the Guatemalan state by expanding the Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI) and by strongly supporting CICIG, MIFAPRO, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

Latin America: Nuclear Capabilities, Intentions and Threat Perceptions

Three key states are relevant in considering future nuclear proliferation in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela. Argentina and Brazil are critical because of their relatively advanced nuclear capabilities. For historical and geopolitical reasons, neither Argentina nor Brazil is likely to reactive nuclear weapons programs. Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chávez, has repeatedly demonstrated interest in developing a nuclear program, yet Venezuela lacks any serious nuclear expertise. Even if it had the managerial and technological capacity, the lead-time to develop an indigenous nuclear program would be measured in decades. Acquisition of nuclear technology from international sources would be difficult because members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group would insist on safeguards, and potential non-Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) suppliers are highly surveilled, risking the exposure of such a program before Venezuela could put a deterrent into place. While South American states have historically opposed nuclear weapons, their acquisition by Brazil and Argentina would lead to little more than diplomatic condemnation. Brazil and Argentina are both geopolitically satisfied powers that are deeply embedded in a regional security community. On the other hand, Venezuela under President Chávez is perceived as a revisionist power seeking a transformation of the international system. Venezuelan acquisition of nuclear weapons would be met with alarm by the United States and Colombia, and it would prompt nuclear weapons development by Brazil and possibly Argentina, more for reasons of preserving regional leadership and prestige than for fear of a Venezuelan threat.

Armenia's Foreign Policy, 1991-2004: Between History and Geopolitics

This dissertation is the first systematic study of Armenia’s foreign policy during the post-independence period, between 1991 and 2004. It argues that a small state’s foreign policy is best understood when looking at the regional level. Armenia’s geographic proximity to Iran, Russia and Turkey, places it in an area of heightened geopolitical interest by various great powers. This dissertation explores four sets of relationships with Armenia’s major historical ‘partners’: Russia, Iran, Turkey and the West (Europe and the United States). Each relationship reveals a complex reality of a continuous negotiation between ideas of history, collective memory, nationalism and geopolitics. A detailed study of Armenia’s relations with these powers demonstrates how actors’ relations of amity and enmity are formed to constitute a regional security complex. Turkey represents the ultimate “other”, while both Europe and Iran are seen as ideational “others”, whose role in Armenia’s foreign policy, aside from pragmatic policy considerations, reflects a normative quest. Russia and the United States, on the other hand, represent the powerful structural forces that define the regional security complex, in which Armenia operates. This dissertation argues that although Armenia has been severely constrained in certain foreign policy choices, it was adept at carving a space for action that privileged the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh over other geopolitical imperatives.

The New Silk Road, a Glimpse to China's Regime?

China's Silk Road Economic Belt plan is a part of One Belt, One Road initiative that aims to create trade routes from China all the way to Europe. Despite the potential benefits, there are also problems along the way. In this research I am examining the adverse effects of one part of the Silk Road Economic Belt with my focus on Xinjiang Uyghur minority and their rights and Central Asian regional stability. Moreover, I suggest that China's past commitments in the international society as well as her actions in relations to the undertaking can give an insight into a regime where China would be the dominant power in international society. I have used qualitative analysis to study the topics. My most important methodological tools to examine the topics are as follows. I utilise conceptual analysis to borrow concepts from international relations field. I use method of situation analysis when I am describing the current circumstances in China's Xinjiang and Central Asia. Inductive analysis is the overall method since I suggest that the content I have examined could give an insight to how China regards and relates to international law in the future. Moreover, my theoretical framework of the research sees international law as a tool that a state can use to gain more power but at the same time international law restricts state's behaviour. Based on the findings of this research, in case of Xinjiang the New Silk Road is likely to worsen Uyghurs situation because of Beijing's worries and harsh actions to prevent any disturbance. However, the New Silk Road could bring stability and maintain regional security in Central Asia when the states could see it beneficial to unite for cooperation which can result with greater benefits. China's potential future regime will emphasize sovereignty and non-interference to states’ domestic matters. Moreover, there will be no room for minority rights in China's concept of human rights. Human rights are meant to protect rights of masses but are of secondary importance since development and security will be more important goals to pursue. In the field of cooperation, China is increasingly using multilateral forums to discuss the matters but reserves bilateral negotiations for executing the plans.

Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations

How have cooperative airspace arrangements contributed to cooperation and discord in the Euro-Atlantic region? This study analyzes the role of three sets of airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in political-military relations among neighbors and within the region. These arrangements provide insights into the integration of Central and Eastern European states into Western security institutions, and the current discord that centers on the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s place in regional security. The study highlights the role of airspace incidents as contributors to conflict escalation and identifies opportunities for transparency- and confidence-building measures to improve U.S./NATO-Russian relations. The study recommends strengthening the Open Skies Treaty in order to facilitate the resolution of conflicts and improve region-wide military transparency. It notes that political-military arrangements for engaging theater air and missile threats created by NATO and Russia over the last twenty years are currently postured in a way that divides the region and inhibits mutual security. In turn, the U.S.-led Regional Airspace Initiatives that facilitated the exchange of air situational data between NATO and then-NATO-aspirants such as Poland and the Baltic states, offer a useful precedent for improving air sovereignty and promoting information sharing to reduce the fear of war among participating states. Thus, projects like NATO’s Air Situational Data Exchange and the NATO-Russia Council Cooperative Airspace Initiative—if extended to the exchange of data about military aircraft—have the potential to buttress deterrence and contribute to conflict prevention. The study concludes that documenting the evolution of airspace arrangements since the end of the Cold War contributes to understanding of the conflicting narratives put forward by Russia, the West, and the states “in-between” with respect to reasons for the current state of regional security. The long-term project of developing a zone of stable peace in the Euro-Atlantic must begin with the difficult task of building inclusive security institutions to accommodate the concerns of all regional actors.

Predicamento de seguridad yemení

Con el inicio del periodo Post-Guerra Fría el Sistema Internacional comienza a experimentar un incremento en el fortalecimiento de su componente social; la Sociedad de Estados alcanza un mayor nivel de homogenización, el estado, unidad predominante de esta, comienzan atravesar una serie de transformaciones que obedecerán a una serie de cambios y continuidades respecto al periodo anterior. Desde la perspectiva del Realismo Subalterno de las Relaciones Internacionales se destacan el proceso de construcción de estado e inserción al sistema como las variables que determinan el sentimiento de inseguridad experimentado por las elites estatales del Tercer Mundo; procesos que en el contexto de un nuevo y turbulento periodo en el sistema, tomara algunas características particulares que darán un sentido especifico al sentimiento de inseguridad y las acciones a través de las cuales las elites buscan disminuirlo. La dimensión externa del sentimiento de inseguridad, el nuevo papel que toma la resistencia popular como factor determinante del sentimiento de inseguridad y de la cooperación, así como del conflicto, entre los miembros de la Sociedad Internacional, la inserción como promotor de estrategias de construcción de Estado, son alguno de los temas puntuales, que desde la perspectiva subalterna, parecen salir a flote tras el análisis del sistema en lo que se ha considerado como el periodo Post-Guerra Fría. En este sentido Yemen, se muestra como un caso adecuado no solo para poner a prueba las postulados de la teoría subalterna, veinte años después de su obra más prominente (The third world security Predicament), escrita por M. Ayoob, sino como un caso pertinente que permite acercarse más a la comprensión del papel del Tercer Mundo al interior de la Sociedad Internacional de Estados.

Colombia como referente en la lucha contra las drogas : perspectivas de la cooperación con África Occidental

Este estudio de caso se realiza con el objetivo de analizar cómo la cooperación entre Colombia y África occidental en la lucha contra el tráfico de drogas repercute en la imagen del Estado colombiano como referente en esfuerzos antinarcóticos desde la periferia. En consecuencia, se busca conocer la forma en la cual los acuerdos bilaterales interinstitucionales, la participación en foros y la creación de una agenda internacional de lucha contra las drogas para un escenario nacional transformado, configuran la imagen del Estado colombiano. Para tal objetivo, el trabajo se desarrollará a través de los conceptos de identidad de Alexander Wendt, periferia de Mohammed Ayoob y Cooperación Sur-Sur de la Organización de Naciones Unidas y la Agencia Presidencial de Cooperación Internacional de Colombia.

La influencia de los objetivos del milenio del PNUD en la implementación de políticas publicas ambientales en Tailandia para el periodo del 2000 al 2013

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal, explicar la influencia de los ODM del PNUD en la implementación de políticas públicas medioambientales de Tailandia en el periodo del 2000 al 2013, basado en la teoría de los complejos de socialización y la transferencia de normas que implican un buen comportamiento medioambiental. De esta manera, demostrar que los agentes socializadores han cumplido un papel fundamental para la implementación de políticas públicas en Tailandia en su interés por cumplir con sus compromisos internacionales. Esta monografía utilizara un método cualitativo, desde el análisis de las fuentes primarias y secundarias, realizando especial énfasis en la teoría de complejos de socialización que permita un análisis descriptivo y explicativo del fenómeno.

La influencia de los objetivos del milenio del PNUD en la implementación de políticas públicas ambientales en Tailandia para el periodo del 2000 al 2013

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal, explicar la influencia de los ODM del PNUD en la implementación de políticas públicas medioambientales de Tailandia en el periodo del 2000 al 2013, basado en la teoría de los complejos de socialización y la transferencia de normas que implican un buen comportamiento medioambiental. De esta manera, demostrar que los agentes socializadores han cumplido un papel fundamental para la implementación de políticas públicas en Tailandia en su interés por cumplir con sus compromisos internacionales. Esta monografía utilizara un método cualitativo, desde el análisis de las fuentes primarias y secundarias, realizando especial énfasis en la teoría de complejos de socialización que permita un análisis descriptivo y explicativo del fenómeno.

The Peace and Security Council of the African Union : its relationship with the United Nations, African Union and sub-regional mechanisms

Avhandlingen undersöker den Afrikanska Unionens freds- och säkerhetsråd och dess roll i framhävandet och upprätthållandet av fred, säkerhet och stabilitet i Afrika. Detta freds- och säkerhetsråd etablerades formellt 2004 och opererar under den Afrikanska Unionen (AU) som å sin sida upprättades 2002. Den Afrikanska Unionens freds- och säkerhetsråds roll i framhävandet av fred, säkerhet och stabilitet gör rådet till en hörnsten inom ramen för konfliktförebyggande och -hantering, samt konfliktlösning på den afrikanska kontinenten. Den Afrikanska Unionens freds- och säkerhetsråd spelar också en högst viktig roll i implementeringen av ansvaret att beskydda civilbefolkningen i konfliktsituationer. För uppfyllandet av sitt mandat att framhäva och upprätthålla fred, säkerhet och stabilitet i Afrika krävs det att freds- och säkerhetsrådet samarbetar med andra institutioner och mekanismer som handhar internationella och regionala freds- och säkerhetsärenden. Avhandlingen analyserar tre dimensioner av denna typ av relationer som freds- och säkerhetsrådet bör etablera med dessa organ och mekanismer för att kunna utföra sitt mandat effektivt. Först analyseras relationen mellan Afrikanska Unionens freds- och säkerhetsråd och Förenta Nationernas säkerhetsråd som också beskrivs i artikel 17 (1) i protokollet som förde till etablerandet av AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd. Analysen understryker FN:s säkerhetsråd som det organ som bär det primära ansvaret i förhållande till fred och säkerhet, medan AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd fungerar som en kompletterande komponent i sin roll som ett regionalt organ. Avhandlingen fortsätter med att analysera förhållandet mellan AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd och andra organ inom AU, samt andra relevanta institutioner som framgår av artikel 10, 18 (1), 19 och 20 i protokollet för rådets etablerande. Avhandlingen diskuterar i detalj hur samarbetet mellan AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd och dessa institutioner och organ kunde förstärkas till fördel för effektivt framhävande och upprätthållande av fred och säkerhet i Afrika. Slutligen analyserar avhandlingen samarbetet mellan AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd och sub-regionala mekanismer etablerade under regionala ekonomiska gemenskaper som beskrivs i artikel 16 i protokollet för etablerandet av rådet. Avhandlingen diskuterar i detalj rollen för de sub-regionala mekanismerna i den afrikanska freds- och säkerhetsarkitekturen. Avhandlingen diskuterar vidare förhållandet mellan de sub-regionala mekanismerna och den afrikanska stand-by styrkan ASF och förutsättningarna för detta arrangemang att bemöta afrikanska konflikter. Avhandlingen fokuserar också på en harmoniserings- och samarbetsprocess i förhållande till de sub-regionala mekanismerna, de regionala ekonomiska gemenskaperna och den Afrikanska Unionens freds- och säkerhetsråd. Kort sagt beskriver avhandlingen hur förhållandet mellan AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd och de ovan nämnda organ och mekanismer har en faktisk och potentiell möjlighet att effektivt bidra till fred, säkerhet och stabilitet i Afrika. Avhandlingen identifierar utmaningarna kring att göra detta till ett fungerande förhållande samtidigt som den genererar både generella och specifika rekommendationer om hur dessa utmaningar bäst kan bemötas. Några av dessa utmaningar utgörs av följande aspekter: konflikten mellan AU:s och FN:s reglemang i bemötandet av freds- och säkerhetsutmaningar; de olika metoderna i FN och AU vid implementeringen av principen av universell jurisdiktion; konflikten mellan de olika mandaten som AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd och FN:s säkerhetsråd har i förhållande till implementeringen av principen om intervention; och konflikten mellan lagarna och metoderna i förhållande till AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd och de regionala mekanismerna. En av de huvudsakliga rekommendationerna i avhandlingen i bemötandet av de ovan nämnda utmaningarna är att harmonisera de olika systemen för att försäkra att det föreligger ett samordnat bemötande av konflikter i Afrika. Efter att ha identifierat luckorna i AU:s freds- och säkerhetsprotokoll med speciell fokus på förhållandet mellan rådet och de relevanta organen och mekanismerna rekommenderar avhandlingen ett antal tillägg och modifieringar till instrumentet ifråga för att effektivera, stärka och upprätthålla detta förhållande. Avhandlingen föreslår att dessa tillägg och modifieringar skulle företas under 2014 då detta år markerar 10 år efter att AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd etablerades. Idén bakom detta företagandet ligger i att 10 år torde vara en tillfredställande tidsperiod för att mäta hur freds- och säkerhetsrådet har fungerat och hur dess förhållande med de relevanta institutionerna och mekanismerna kunde förbättras. Avhandlingen representerar den bredaste och nyaste studien inom ramen för artikel 16, 17, 18, 19 och 20 i protokollet för AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd och introducerar ett innovativt bemötande av utmaningar till fred, säkerhet och stabilitet på den afrikanska kontinenten. Avhandlingen bidrar till teorin och praxisen i AU:s freds- och säkerhetsråd vilket kan vara av intresse för både forskare och praktiker i folkrätt såväl som i internationella freds- och säkerhetsstudier, speciellt i Afrika.