Short-term traffic volume forecasting : a k-nearest neighbor approach enhanced by constrained linearly sewing principle component algorithm

To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

Combined analysis of categorical and numerical descriptors of Australian groundnut accessions using nonlinear principal component analysis

For users of germplasm collections, the purpose of measuring characterization and evaluation descriptors, and subsequently using statistical methodology to summarize the data, is not only to interpret the relationships between the descriptors, but also to characterize the differences and similarities between accessions in relation to their phenotypic variability for each of the measured descriptors. The set of descriptors for the accessions of most germplasm collections consists of both numerical and categorical descriptors. This poses problems for a combined analysis of all descriptors because few statistical techniques deal with mixtures of measurement types. In this article, nonlinear principal component analysis was used to analyze the descriptors of the accessions in the Australian groundnut collection. It was demonstrated that the nonlinear variant of ordinary principal component analysis is an appropriate analytical tool because subspecies and botanical varieties could be identified on the basis of the analysis and characterized in terms of all descriptors. Moreover, outlying accessions could be easily spotted and their characteristics established. The statistical results and their interpretations provide users with a more efficient way to identify accessions of potential relevance for their plant improvement programs and encourage and improve the usefulness and utilization of germplasm collections.

Design and modification of three-component randomly incorporated copolymers for high performance organic photovoltaic applications

In this study we report the molecular design, synthesis, characterization, and photovoltaic properties of a series of diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) and dithienothiophene (DTT) based donor-acceptor random copolymers. The six random copolymers are obtained via Stille coupling polymerization using various concentration ratios of donor to acceptor in the conjugated backbone. Bis(trimethylstannyl)thiophene was used as the bridge block to link randomly with the two comonomers 5-(bromothien-2-yl)-2,5-dialkylpyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1, 4-dione and 2,6-dibromo-3,5-dipentadecyl-dithieno[3,2-b;2′,3′-d] thiophene. The optical properties of these copolymers clearly reveal a change in the absorption band through optimization of the donor-acceptor ratio in the backbone. Additionally, the solution processability of the copolymers is modified through the attachment of different bulky alkyl chains to the lactam N-atoms of the DPP moiety. Applications of the polymers as light-harvesting and electron-donating materials in solar cells, in conjunction with PCBM as acceptor, show power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) of up to 5.02%.

In-hospital mortality rates after a cemented femoral component for displaced neck of femur fractures

Aim This prospective cohort study investigated whether the use of preoperative anticoagulants is an independent risk factor for the outcomes of surgical treatment of patients with a neck of femur fracture. Methods Data was obtained from a prospectively collected database. All patients admitted for a neck of femur fracture between Nov 2010 and Oct 2011 were included. This resulted in three hundred twenty-eight patients with 330 neck of femur fractures. Four groups were defined; patients preoperatively (i) on aspirin (n = 105); (ii) on clopidogrel (n = 28); (iii) on warfarin (n = 30), and; (iv) without any anticoagulation history (n = 167, the control group). The non-warfarin group included the aspirin group, clopidogrel group and the control group. Primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were the postoperative complications, return to theatre and length of stay. Results Thirteen in-hospital deaths were identified, 4 deaths in the aspirin group, 1 death in the clopidogrel group, 2 deaths in the warfarin group and 6 deaths in the control group. No significant difference in the mortality rates was found between the different groups. Also in the secondary outcomes, no significant difference was found between the four groups. A trend to a higher wound complication rate for the warfarin group was detected. Conclusion The use of clopidrogel or aspirin pre operatively is not an influence on short term patient outcome for patients with a neck of femur fracture. Surgical procedures should not be delayed to reverse their influence.

Component modeling for SCADA network mapping

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition systems (SCADA) are widely used to control critical infrastructure automatically. Capturing and analyzing packet-level traffic flowing through such a network is an essential requirement for problems such as legacy network mapping and fault detection. Within the framework of captured network traffic, we present a simple modeling technique, which supports the mapping of the SCADA network topology via traffic monitoring. By characterizing atomic network components in terms of their input-output topology and the relationship between their data traffic logs, we show that these modeling primitives have good compositional behaviour, which allows complex networks to be modeled. Finally, the predictions generated by our model are found to be in good agreement with experimentally obtained traffic.

Regenerative silver nanoparticles for SERRS investigation of metmyoglobin with conserved heme pocket

Shell isolated silver nanoparticles with an ultrathin silica layer (Ag@SiO2NPs) are used as a surface-enhanced resonance Raman scattering (SERRS) substrate for probing metmyoglobin (metMb) in aqueous solution. The ultrathin silica layer protects metMb from reaching the bare silver surface and conserves the heme pocket during SERRS analysis with a Raman enhancement factor (EFSERS) of 4.78 × 104. In spite of the good SERRS enhancement, the interaction between the protein and Ag@SiO2NPs is weak enough to separate them by centrifugation in such a way that both are regenerated in their original form and can be reused. Using Ag@SiO2NPs as the SERRS substrate, the lowest detection limit of 2 nM was achieved for metMb whilst conserving the native structure of the heme centre.

Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of the integrated report card for the Great Barrier Reef catchments

This report presents the final deliverable from the project titled Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of an integrated report card’ funded by the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF; Project 3.7.7). The key management driver of this, and a number of other MTSRF projects concerned with indicator development, is the requirement for state and federal government authorities and other stakeholders to provide robust assessments of the present ‘state’ or ‘health’ of regional ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments and adjacent marine waters. An integrated report card format, that encompasses both biophysical and socioeconomic factors, is an appropriate framework through which to deliver these assessments and meet a variety of reporting requirements. It is now well recognised that a ‘report card’ format for environmental reporting is very effective for community and stakeholder communication and engagement, and can be a key driver in galvanising community and political commitment and action. Although a report card it needs to be understandable by all levels of the community, it also needs to be underpinned by sound, quality-assured science. In this regard this project was to develop approaches to address the statistical issues that arise from amalgamation or integration of sets of discrete indicators into a final score or assessment of the state of the system. In brief, the two main issues are (1) selecting, measuring and interpreting specific indicators that vary both in space and time, and (2) integrating a range of indicators in such a way as to provide a succinct but robust overview of the state of the system. Although there is considerable research and knowledge of the use of indicators to inform the management of ecological, social and economic systems, methods on how to best to integrate multiple disparate indicators remain poorly developed. Therefore the objective of this project was to (i) focus on statistical approaches aimed at ensuring that estimates of individual indicators are as robust as possible, and (ii) present methods that can be used to report on the overall state of the system by integrating estimates of individual indicators. It was agreed at the outset, that this project was to focus on developing methods for a water quality report card. This was driven largely by the requirements of Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (RWQPP) and led to strong partner engagement with the Reef Water Quality Partnership.

Butterfly catastrophe for fronts in a three-component reaction–diffusion system

We study the dynamics of front solutions in a three-component reaction–diffusion system via a combination of geometric singular perturbation theory, Evans function analysis, and center manifold reduction. The reduced system exhibits a surprisingly complicated bifurcation structure including a butterfly catastrophe. Our results shed light on numerically observed accelerations and oscillations and pave the way for the analysis of front interactions in a parameter regime where the essential spectrum of a single front approaches the imaginary axis asymptotically.

Chondrocyte redifferentiation and construct mechanical property development in single-component photocrosslinkable hydrogels

Hydrogels are promising materials for cartilage repair, but the properties required for optimal functional outcomes are not yet known. In this study, we functionalized four materials that are commonly used in cartilage tissue engineering and evaluated them using in vitro cultures. Gelatin, hyaluronic acid, polyethylene glycol, and alginate were functionalized with methacrylic anhydride to make them photocrosslinkable. We found that the responses of encapsulated human chondrocytes were highly dependent on hydrogel type. Gelatin hydrogels supported cell proliferation and the deposition of a glycosaminoglycan rich matrix with significant mechanical functionality. However, cells had a dedifferentiated phenotype, with high expression of collagen type I. Chondrocytes showed the best redifferentiation in hyaluronic acid hydrogels, but the newly formed matrix was highly localized to the pericellular regions, and these gels degraded rapidly. Polyethylene glycol hydrogels, as a bioinert control, did not promote any strong responses. Alginate hydrogels did not support the deposition of new matrix, and the stiffness decreased during culture. The markedly different response of chondrocytes to these four photocrosslinkable hydrogels demonstrates the importance of material properties for chondrogenesis and extracellular matrix production, which are critical for effective cartilage repair.

Cultural beliefs about societal change: A three-mode principal component analysis in China, Australia, and Japan

People’s beliefs about where society has come from and where it is going have personal and political consequences. Here, we conduct a detailed investigation of these beliefs through re-analyzing Kashima et al.’s (Study 2, n = 320) data from China, Australia, and Japan. Kashima et al. identified a “folk theory of social change” (FTSC) belief that people in society become more competent over time, but less warm and moral. Using three-mode principal components analysis, an under-utilized analytical method in psychology, we identified two additional narratives: Utopianism/Dystopianism (people becoming generally better or worse over time) and Expansion/Contraction (an increase/decrease in both positive and negative aspects of character over time). Countries differed in endorsement of these three narratives of societal change. Chinese endorsed the FTSC and Utopian narratives more than other countries, Japanese held Dystopian and Contraction beliefs more than other countries, and Australians’ narratives of societal change fell between Chinese and Japanese. Those who believed in greater economic/technological development held stronger FTSC and Expansion/Contraction narratives, but not Utopianism/Dystopianism. By identifying multiple cultural narratives about societal change, this research provides insights into how people across cultures perceive their social world and their visions of the future.