Neolithic transitions: can genetic data help us understand a major demographic event in human prehistory?

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Updated survival data of the phase iii clinical trial of novottf-100a versus best standard chemotherapy for recurrent glioblastoma

NovoTTF-100A (TTF) is a portable device delivering low-intensity, intermediate-frequency, alternating electric fields using noninvasive, disposable scalp electrodes. TTF interferes with tumor cell division, and it has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM) based on data from a phase III trial. This presentation describes the updated survival data 2 years after completing recruitment. Adults with rGBM (KPS ≥ 70) were randomized (stratified by surgery and center) to either continuous TTF (20-24 h/day, 7 days/week) or efficacious chemotherapy based on best physician choice (BPC). The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints were PFS6, 1-year survival, and QOL. Patients were randomized (28 US and European centers) to either TTF alone (n ¼ 120) or BPC (n ¼ 117). Patient characteristics were balanced, median age was 54 years (range, 23-80 years), and median KPS was 80 (range, 50-100). One quarter of the patients had debulking surgery, and over half of the patients were at their second or later recurrence. OS in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population was equivalent in TTF versus BPC patients (median OS, 6.6vs. 6.0 months; n ¼ 237; p ¼ 0.26; HR ¼ 0.86). With a median follow-up of 33.6 months, long-term survival in the TTF group was higher than that in the BPC group at 2, 3, and 4 years of follow-up (9.3% vs. 6.6%; 8.4% vs. 1.4%; 8.4% vs. 0.0%, respectively). Analysis of patients who received at least one treatment course demonstrated a survival benefit for TTF patients compared to BPC patients (median OS, 7.8 vs. 6.0 months; n ¼ 93 vs. n ¼ 117; p ¼ 0.012; HR ¼ 0.69). In this group, 1-year survival was 28% vs. 20%, and PFS6 was 26.2% vs. 15.2% (p ¼ 0.034). TTF, a noninvasive, novel cancer treatment modality shows significant therapeutic efficacy with promising long-term survival results. The impact of TTF was more pronounced when comparing only patients who received the minimal treatment course. A large-scale phase III trial in newly diagnosed GBM is ongoing.

Blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol targets for prevention of recurrent strokes and cognitive decline in the hypertensive patient: design of the European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment randomized trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The SBP values to be achieved by antihypertensive therapy in order to maximize reduction of cardiovascular outcomes are unknown; neither is it clear whether in patients with a previous cardiovascular event, the optimal values are lower than in the low-to-moderate risk hypertensive patients, or a more cautious blood pressure (BP) reduction should be obtained. Because of the uncertainty whether 'the lower the better' or the 'J-curve' hypothesis is correct, the European Society of Hypertension and the Chinese Hypertension League have promoted a randomized trial comparing antihypertensive treatment strategies aiming at three different SBP targets in hypertensive patients with a recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack. As the optimal level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level is also unknown in these patients, LDL-C-lowering has been included in the design. PROTOCOL DESIGN: The European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment trial is a prospective multinational, randomized trial with a 3 × 2 factorial design comparing: three different SBP targets (1, <145-135; 2, <135-125; 3, <125 mmHg); two different LDL-C targets (target A, 2.8-1.8; target B, <1.8 mmol/l). The trial is to be conducted on 7500 patients aged at least 65 years (2500 in Europe, 5000 in China) with hypertension and a stroke or transient ischaemic attack 1-6 months before randomization. Antihypertensive and statin treatments will be initiated or modified using suitable registered agents chosen by the investigators, in order to maintain patients within the randomized SBP and LDL-C windows. All patients will be followed up every 3 months for BP and every 6 months for LDL-C. Ambulatory BP will be measured yearly. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome is time to stroke (fatal and non-fatal). Important secondary outcomes are: time to first major cardiovascular event; cognitive decline (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and dementia. All major outcomes will be adjudicated by committees blind to randomized allocation. A Data and Safety Monitoring Board has open access to data and can recommend trial interruption for safety. SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATION: It has been calculated that 925 patients would reach the primary outcome after a mean 4-year follow-up, and this should provide at least 80% power to detect a 25% stroke difference between SBP targets and a 20% difference between LDL-C targets.

Heterogeneity and event dependence in the analysis of sickness absence

Sickness absence (SA) is an important social, economic and public health issue. Identifying and understanding the determinants, whether biological, regulatory or, health services-related, of variability in SA duration is essential for better management of SA. The conditional frailty model (CFM) is useful when repeated SA events occur within the same individual, as it allows simultaneous analysis of event dependence and heterogeneity due to unknown, unmeasured, or unmeasurable factors. However, its use may encounter computational limitations when applied to very large data sets, as may frequently occur in the analysis of SA duration. To overcome the computational issue, we propose a Poisson-based conditional frailty model (CFPM) for repeated SA events that accounts for both event dependence and heterogeneity. To demonstrate the usefulness of the model proposed in the SA duration context, we used data from all non-work-related SA episodes that occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in 2007, initiated by either a diagnosis of neoplasm or mental and behavioral disorders. As expected, the CFPM results were very similar to those of the CFM for both diagnosis groups. The CPU time for the CFPM was substantially shorter than the CFM. The CFPM is an suitable alternative to the CFM in survival analysis with recurrent events,especially with large databases.

Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

Efficient modeling and inference for event-related fMRI data

Event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (efMRI) has emerged as a powerful technique for detecting brains' responses to presented stimuli. A primary goal in efMRI data analysis is to estimate the Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF) and to locate activated regions in human brains when specific tasks are performed. This paper develops new methodologies that are important improvements not only to parametric but also to nonparametric estimation and hypothesis testing of the HRF. First, an effective and computationally fast scheme for estimating the error covariance matrix for efMRI is proposed. Second, methodologies for estimation and hypothesis testing of the HRF are developed. Simulations support the effectiveness of our proposed methods. When applied to an efMRI dataset from an emotional control study, our method reveals more meaningful findings than the popular methods offered by AFNI and FSL. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Providing Reliable Data Transport for Dynamic Event Sensing in Wireless Sensor Networks

In this paper, we propose a Loss Tolerant Reliable (LTR) data transport mechanism for dynamic Event Sensing (LTRES) in WSNs. In LTRES, a reliable event sensing requirement at the transport layer is dynamically determined by the sink. A distributed source rate adaptation mechanism is designed, incorporating a loss rate based lightweight congestion control mechanism, to regulate the data traffic injected into the network so that the reliability requirement can be satisfied. An equation based fair rate control algorithm is used to improve the fairness among the LTRES flows sharing the congestion path. The performance evaluations show that LTRES can provide LTR data transport service for multiple events with short convergence time, low lost rate and high overall bandwidth utilization.

Software tools and efficient algorithms for the feature detection, feature tracking, event localization, and visualization of large sets of atmospheric data

Data sets describing the state of the earth's atmosphere are of great importance in the atmospheric sciences. Over the last decades, the quality and sheer amount of the available data increased significantly, resulting in a rising demand for new tools capable of handling and analysing these large, multidimensional sets of atmospheric data. The interdisciplinary work presented in this thesis covers the development and the application of practical software tools and efficient algorithms from the field of computer science, aiming at the goal of enabling atmospheric scientists to analyse and to gain new insights from these large data sets. For this purpose, our tools combine novel techniques with well-established methods from different areas such as scientific visualization and data segmentation. In this thesis, three practical tools are presented. Two of these tools are software systems (Insight and IWAL) for different types of processing and interactive visualization of data, the third tool is an efficient algorithm for data segmentation implemented as part of Insight.Insight is a toolkit for the interactive, three-dimensional visualization and processing of large sets of atmospheric data, originally developed as a testing environment for the novel segmentation algorithm. It provides a dynamic system for combining at runtime data from different sources, a variety of different data processing algorithms, and several visualization techniques. Its modular architecture and flexible scripting support led to additional applications of the software, from which two examples are presented: the usage of Insight as a WMS (web map service) server, and the automatic production of a sequence of images for the visualization of cyclone simulations. The core application of Insight is the provision of the novel segmentation algorithm for the efficient detection and tracking of 3D features in large sets of atmospheric data, as well as for the precise localization of the occurring genesis, lysis, merging and splitting events. Data segmentation usually leads to a significant reduction of the size of the considered data. This enables a practical visualization of the data, statistical analyses of the features and their events, and the manual or automatic detection of interesting situations for subsequent detailed investigation. The concepts of the novel algorithm, its technical realization, and several extensions for avoiding under- and over-segmentation are discussed. As example applications, this thesis covers the setup and the results of the segmentation of upper-tropospheric jet streams and cyclones as full 3D objects. Finally, IWAL is presented, which is a web application for providing an easy interactive access to meteorological data visualizations, primarily aimed at students. As a web application, the needs to retrieve all input data sets and to install and handle complex visualization tools on a local machine are avoided. The main challenge in the provision of customizable visualizations to large numbers of simultaneous users was to find an acceptable trade-off between the available visualization options and the performance of the application. Besides the implementational details, benchmarks and the results of a user survey are presented.

Comparison of genomic and proteomic data in recurrent airway obstruction affected horses using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis(R)

BACKGROUND: Recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) is a severe chronic respiratory disease affecting horses worldwide, though mostly in the Northern hemisphere. Environmental as well as genetic factors strongly influence the course and prognosis of the disease. Research has been focused on characterization of immunologic factors contributing to inflammatory responses, on genetic linkage analysis, and, more recently, on proteomic analysis of airway secretions from affected horses. The goal of this study was to investigate the interactions between eight candidate genes previously identified in a genetic linkage study and proteins expressed in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) collected from healthy and RAO-affected horses. The analysis was carried out with Ingenuity Pathway Analysis(R) bioinformatics software. RESULTS: The gene with the greatest number of indirect interactions with the set of proteins identified is Interleukin 4 Receptor (IL-4R), whose protein has also been detected in BALF. Interleukin 21 receptor and chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 24 also showed a large number of interactions with the group of detected proteins. Protein products of other genes like that of SOCS5, revealed direct interactions with the IL-4R protein. The interacting proteins NOD2, RPS6KA5 and FOXP3 found in several pathways are reported regulators of the NFkappaB pathway. CONCLUSIONS: The pathways generated with IL-4R highlight possible important intracellular signaling cascades implicating, for instance, NFkappaB. Furthermore, the proposed interaction between SOCS5 and IL-4R could explain how different genes can lead to identical clinical RAO phenotypes, as observed in two Swiss Warmblood half sibling families because these proteins interact upstream of an important cascade where they may act as a functional unit.