Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Aproximacón al cálculo del crecimiento real de Colombia: aportes metodológicos para la inclusión en las cuentas nacionales de los impactos del agotamiento del carbón y del gas natural

The integrated accounting system considers the natural resource depletion issues. We analyze the difference between this system and the traditional national accounting system, using data from the mining sector in Colombia (natural gas and coal). Results show that by including the impact of these two resources exhaustion, the traditional GDP would be overestimated; while it grew at an annual rate of 2.2% for the period 1995-2005, adjusted GDP would show a grow rate of 1.3%, reflecting costs on real country growth. These results open a debate given the current proposal of basing part of economic growth in Colombia on mining.

Ownership Advantages in Cross-border Real Estate Development: Some Evidence from European Markets

Drawing upon European industry and country case studies, this paper investigates the scope and drivers of cross-border real estate development. It is argued that the real estate development process encompasses a diverse range of activities and actors. It is inherently localised, the production process is complex and emphermal, and the outputs are heterogeneous. It analyses a transactions database of European real estate markets to provide insights into the extent of, and variations in, market penetration by non-domestic real estate developers. The data were consistent with the expectation that non-domestic real estate developers from mature markets would have a high level of market penetration in immature markets. Compared to western European markets, the CEE real estate office sales by developers were dominated by US, Israeli and other EU developers. This pattern is consistent with the argument that non-domestic developers have substantial Dunning-type ownership advantages when entering immature real estate markets. However, the data also suggested some unexpected patterns. Relative to their GDP, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands and Israel accounted for large proportions of sales by developers. All are EU countries (except Israel) with small, open, affluent, highly traded economies. Further, the data also indicate that there may be a threshold where locational disadvantages outweigh ownership advantages and deter cross-border real estate development.

Analyzing the performance of non-listed real estate funds: an panel data analysis

The rapid growth of non-listed real estate funds over the last several years has contributed towards establishing this sector as a major investment vehicle for gaining exposure to commercial real estate. Academic research has not kept up with this development, however, as there are still only a few published studies on non-listed real estate funds. This paper aims to identify the factors driving the total return over a seven-year period. Influential factors tested in our analysis include the weighted underlying direct property returns in each country and sector as well as fund size, investment style gearing and the distribution yield. Furthermore, we analyze the interaction of non-listed real estate funds with the performance of the overall economy and that of competing asset classes and found that lagged GDP growth and stock market returns as well as contemporaneous government bond rates are significant and positive predictors of annual fund performance.

Understanding the barriers to real estate investment in developing economies

Baum (2008a) related the number of real estate funds investing in developing economies to simple economic and demographic variables, and showed that, while the popularity of markets was explained by population and GDP per capita, some countries receive more or less investment than the model predicted. Why is this? In this paper we undertake a literature review to identify the barriers which inhibit international real estate investment. We test our initial findings by questioning property investment professionals through semi-structured interviews. By doing this we were able to verify our list of barriers, identify those barriers which are most likely to affect real estate investors, and to indicate whether there are any real estate-specific variables that create barriers which have not received any academic attention. We show that distortions in international capital flows may be explained by a combination of these formal and informal barriers.

Rationality and momentum in real estate investment forecasts

This study examines the rationality and momentum in forecasts for rental, capital value and total returns for the real estate investment market in the United Kingdom. In order to investigate if forecasters are affected by the general economic conditions present at the time of forecast we incorporate into the analysis Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and the Default Spread (DS). The empirical findings show high levels of momentum in the forecasts, with highly persistent forecast errors. The results also indicate that forecasters are affected by adverse conditions. This is consistent with the finding that they tend to exhibit greater forecast error when the property market is underperforming and vice-versa.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefiy reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995-2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments-which, unti11998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact ofthe currency depreciation On the dollar-indexed and the externai debt-, and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, infiation-linked bonds.

Economic growth and real volatility: The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

Using a new database of quarterly data for 21 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean for the 1990-2012 period, this document shows that the duration of GDP contractions appears to be a rather robust indicator of real volatility, and is negatively correlated with long run growth in Latin America and the Caribbean during the period. These results are consistent with different theoretical hypotheses in the literature that relate the duration of GDP contractions with economic growth. They also show that the relationship between real volatility and economic growth in the region is robust to the inclusion of external variables that control for external uncertainty and volatility.

Explanation of changes in real estate stock market

The aim of this study is to explain the changes in the real estate prices as well as in the real estate stock market prices, using some macro-economic explanatory variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), the real interest rate and the unemployment rate. Several regressions have been carried out in order to express some types of incremental and absolute deflated real estate lock market indexes in terms of the macro-economic variables. The analyses are applied to the Swedish economy. The period under study is 1984-1994. Time series on monthly data are used. i.e. the number of data-points is 132. If time leads/lags are introduced in the e regressions, significant improvements in the already high correlations are achieved. The signs of the coefficients for IR, UE and GDP are all what one would expect to see from an economic point of view: those for GDP are all positive, those for both IR and UE are negative. All the regressions have high R2 values. Both markets anticipate change in the unemployment rate by 6 to 9 months, which seems reasonable because such change can be forecast quite reliably. But, on the contrary, there is no reason why they should anticipate by 3-6 months changes in the interest rate that can hardly be reliably forecast so far in advance.

Monitoring the GAP catalyzed H-Ras GTPase reaction at atomic resolution in real time

The molecular reaction mechanism of the GTPase-activating protein (GAP)-catalyzed GTP hydrolysis by Ras was investigated by time resolved Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) difference spectroscopy using caged GTP (P3-1-(2-nitro)phenylethyl guanosine 5′-O-triphosphate) as photolabile trigger. This approach provides the complete GTPase reaction pathway with time resolution of milliseconds at the atomic level. Up to now, one structural model of the GAP⋅Ras⋅GDP⋅AlFx transition state analog is known, which represents a “snap shot” along the reaction-pathway. As now revealed, binding of GAP to Ras⋅GTP shifts negative charge from the γ to β phosphate. Such a shift was already identified by FTIR in GTP because of Ras binding and is now shown to be enhanced by GAP binding. Because the charge distribution of the GAP⋅Ras⋅GTP complex thus resembles a more dissociative-like transition state and is more like that in GDP, the activation free energy is reduced. An intermediate is observed on the reaction pathway that appears when the bond between β and γ phosphate is cleaved. In the intermediate, the released Pi is strongly bound to the protein and surprisingly shows bands typical of those seen for phosphorylated enzyme intermediates. All these results provide a mechanistic picture that is different from the intrinsic GTPase reaction of Ras. FTIR analysis reveals the release of Pi from the protein complex as the rate-limiting step for the GAP-catalyzed reaction. The approach presented allows the study not only of single proteins but of protein–protein interactions without intrinsic chromophores, in the non-crystalline state, in real time at the atomic level.