Negotiation context analysis in electricity markets

Contextualization is critical in every decision making process. Adequate responses to problems depend not only on the variables with direct influence on the outcomes, but also on a correct contextualization of the problem regarding the surrounding environment. Electricity markets are dynamic environments with increasing complexity, potentiated by the last decades' restructuring process. Dealing with the growing complexity and competitiveness in this sector brought the need for using decision support tools. A solid example is MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), whose players' decisions are supported by another multiagent system – ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System). ALBidS uses artificial intelligence techniques to endow market players with adaptive learning capabilities that allow them to achieve the best possible results in market negotiations. This paper studies the influence of context awareness in the decision making process of agents acting in electricity markets. A context analysis mechanism is proposed, considering important characteristics of each negotiation period, so that negotiating agents can adapt their acting strategies to different contexts. The main conclusion is that context-dependant responses improve the decision making process. Suiting actions to different contexts allows adapting the behaviour of negotiating entities to different circumstances, resulting in profitable outcomes.

Six thinking hats: A novel metalearner for intelligent decision support in electricity markets

The energy sector has suffered a significant restructuring that has increased the complexity in electricity market players' interactions. The complexity that these changes brought requires the creation of decision support tools to facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. The Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) arose in this context, providing a simulation framework for deregulated electricity markets. The Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System (ALBidS) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM, ALBidS considers several different strategic methodologies based on highly distinct approaches. Six Thinking Hats (STH) is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives, forcing the thinker to move outside its usual way of thinking. This paper aims to complement the ALBidS strategies by combining them and taking advantage of their different perspectives through the use of the STH group decision technique. The combination of ALBidS' strategies is performed through the application of a genetic algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.

Ontologies for the interoperability of multiagent electricity markets simulation platforms

Electricity markets worldwide are complex and dynamic environments with very particular characteristics. These are the result of electricity markets’ restructuring and evolution into regional and continental scales, along with the constant changes brought by the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources. The rising complexity and unpredictability in electricity markets has increased the need for the intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. Market players and regulators are very interested in predicting the market’s behaviour. Market players need to understand the market behaviour and operation in order to maximize their profits, while market regulators need to test new rules and detect market inefficiencies before they are implemented. The growth of usage of simulation tools was driven by the need for understanding those mechanisms and how the involved players' interactions affect the markets' outcomes. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyse dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. Several modelling tools directed to the study of restructured wholesale electricity markets have emerged. Still, they have a common limitation: the lack of interoperability between the various systems to allow the exchange of information and knowledge, to test different market models and to allow market players from different systems to interact in common market environments. This dissertation proposes the development and implementation of ontologies for semantic interoperability between multi-agent simulation platforms in the scope of electricity markets. The added value provided to these platforms is given by enabling them sharing their knowledge and market models with other agent societies, which provides the means for an actual improvement in current electricity markets studies and development. The proposed ontologies are implemented in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) and tested through the interaction between MASCEM agents and agents from other multi-agent based simulators. The implementation of the proposed ontologies has also required a complete restructuring of MASCEM’s architecture and multi-agent model, which is also presented in this dissertation. The results achieved in the case studies allow identifying the advantages of the novel architecture of MASCEM, and most importantly, the added value of using the proposed ontologies. They facilitate the integration of independent multi-agent simulators, by providing a way for communications to be understood by heterogeneous agents from the various systems.

Analisis De Mercados De Energía Eléctrica Competitivos Con Participación De Energía Eólica. Competitive Electricity Markets Analisis with Wind Power Generation.

La utilización de energía eólica es un hecho cada vez más común en nuestro mundo como respuesta a mitigar el creciente aumento de demanda de energía, los aumentos constantes de precio, la escasez de combustibles fósiles y los impactos del cambio climático, los que son cada día más evidentes.Consecuentemente, el interés por la participación de esta nueva forma de generación de energía en sistema eléctrico de potencia ha aumentado considerablemente en los últimos años. La incorporación de generación de origen eólico en el sistema eléctrico de potencia requiere de un análisis detallado del sistema eléctrico en su conjunto, considerando la interacción entre parques y unidades de generación eólica, plantas de generación convencional y el sistema eléctrico de potencia. La integración de generación de origen renovable en el sistema eléctrico de potencia convencional presenta nuevos desafíos los que pueden ser atribuidos a características propias de este tipo de generación, por ejemplo la fluctuación de energía debido a la naturaleza variable del viento, la naturaleza distribuida de la generación eólica y las características constructivas y método de conexión de los distintos modelos de turbinas eólicas al sistema.La finalidad de este proyecto de investigación consiste en investigar el impacto sobre un mercado de sistema eléctrico competitivo causado por el agregado de generación de origen eolico. Como punto de partida se pretende realizar modelos de plantas de generacion eolica para luego incorporarlos a los modelos de sistemas eléctricos y realizar estudios de de despacho económico, flujo de cargas, análisis transitorio y estudios dinámicos del sistema.

Asymmetric demand information in uniform and discriminatory call auctions: an experimental analysis motivated by electricity markets

We study the outcomes of experimental multi-unit uniform and discriminatory auctions with demand uncertainty. Our study is motivated by the ongoing debate about market design in the electricity industry. Our main aim is to compare the effect of asymmetric demand-information between sellers on the performance of the two auction institutions. In our baseline conditions all sellers have the same information, whereas in our treatment conditions some sellers have better information than others. In both information conditions we find that average transaction prices and price volatility are not significantly different under the two auction institutions. However, when there is asymmetric information among sellers the discriminatory auction is significantly less efficient. These results are not in line with the typical arguments made in favor of discriminatory pricing in electricity industries; namely, lower consumer prices and less price volatility. Moreover, our results provide some indication that discriminatory auctions reduce technical efficiency relative to uniform auctions.

Stochastic optimal bid to electricity markets with environmental risk constraints

There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.

The real estate markets : Players, institutions and territories

Revealing the parties, the processes and the institutions and, consequently, both the diversity and contingency of the real estate markets, the existing increasing literature emphasises the contemporary numerous links and interdependencies between real estate, land value, planning and town planning policy and even the financial system. This paper is an attempt to understand all the real estate markets, from the most peripheral ones, where the urban rent is the lowest, to the most dense city centres. To gain a better understanding of the real estate market, a process of firstly deconstruction and then reconstruction is used. The process of deconstruction involves identifying various market trends according to property type (principally residential buildings), players and institutions, territorial situations and temporalities based on research conducted in Switzerland. We then developed a meta-synthesis inspired by Fernand Braudel whose works put as much emphasis on day-to-day economic activity as on long-term activity, and on local as well as global issues.

Generation and interconnection capacity expansion in cross-border electricity markets : the need for policy coordination

Electricity is a strategic service in modern societies. Thus, it is extremely important for governments to be able to guarantee an affordable and reliable supply, which depends to a great extent on an adequate expansion of the generation and transmission capacities. Cross- border integration of electricity markets creates new challenges for the regulators, since the evolution of the market is now influenced by the characteristics and policies of neighbouring countries. There is still no agreement on why and how regions should integrate their electricity markets. The aim of this thesis is to improve the understanding of integrated electricity markets and how their behaviour depends on the prevailing characteristics of the national markets and the policies implemented in each country. We developed a simulation model to analyse under what circumstances integration is desirable. This model is used to study three cases of interconnection between two countries. Several policies regarding interconnection expansion and operation, combined with different generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, are evaluated. The thesis is composed of three papers. The first paper presents a detailed description of the model and an analysis of the case of Colombia and Ecuador. It shows that market coupling can bring important benefits, but the relative size of the countries can lead to import dependency issues in the smaller country. The second paper compares the case of Colombia and Ecuador with the case of Great Britain and France. These countries are significantly different in terms of electricity sources, hydro- storage capacity, complementarity and demand growth. We show that complementarity is essential in order to obtain benefits from integration, while higher demand growth and hydro- storage capacity can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, thus complicating policy design. In the third paper, an extended version of the model presented in the first paper is used to analyse the case of Finland and its interconnection with Russia. Different trading arrangements are considered. We conclude that unless interconnection capacity is expanded, the current trading arrangement, where a single trader owns the transmission rights and limits the flow during peak hours, is beneficial for Finland. In case of interconnection expansion, market coupling would be preferable. We also show that the costs of maintaining a strategic reserve in Finland are justified in order to limit import dependency, while still reaping the benefits of interconnection. In general, we conclude that electricity market integration can bring benefits if the right policies are implemented. However, a large interconnection capacity is only desirable if the countries exhibit significant complementarity and trust each other. The outcomes of policies aimed at guaranteeing security of supply at a national level can be quite counterintuitive due to the interactions between neighbouring countries and their effects on interconnection and generation investments. Thus, it is important for regulators to understand these interactions and coordinate their decisions in order to take advantage of the interconnection without putting security of supply at risk. But it must be taken into account that even when integration brings benefits to the region, some market participants lose and might try to hinder the integration process. -- Dans les sociétés modernes, l'électricité est un service stratégique. Il est donc extrêmement important pour les gouvernements de pouvoir garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement à des prix abordables. Ceci dépend en grande mesure d'une expansion adéquate des capacités de génération et de transmission. L'intégration des marchés électriques pose des nouveaux défis pour les régulateurs, puisque l'évolution du marché est maintenant influencée par les caractéristiques et les politiques des pays voisins. Il n'est pas encore claire pourquoi ni comment les marches électriques devraient s'intégrer. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des marchés intégrés d'électricité et de leur comportement en fonction des caractéristiques et politiques de chaque pays. Un modèle de simulation est proposé pour étudier les conditions dans lesquelles l'intégration est désirable. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier trois cas d'interconnexion entre deux pays. Plusieurs politiques concernant l'expansion et l'opération de l'interconnexion, combinées avec différents mécanismes de rémunération de la capacité, sont évalués. Cette thèse est compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une description détaillée du modèle et une analyse du cas de la Colombie et de l'Equateur. Il montre que le couplage de marchés peut amener des bénéfices importants ; cependant, la différence de taille entre pays peut créer des soucis de dépendance aux importations pour le pays le plus petit. Le second papier compare le cas de la Colombie et l'Equateur avec le cas de la Grande Bretagne et de la France. Ces pays sont très différents en termes de ressources, taille des réservoirs d'accumulation pour l'hydro, complémentarité et croissance de la demande. Nos résultats montrent que la complémentarité joue un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des bénéfices potentiels de l'intégration, alors qu'un taux élevé de croissance de la demande, ainsi qu'une grande capacité de stockage, mènent à des résultats contre-intuitifs, ce qui complique les décisions des régulateurs. Dans le troisième article, une extension du modèle présenté dans le premier article est utilisée pour analyser le cas de la Finlande et de la Russie. Différentes règles pour les échanges internationaux d'électricité sont considérées. Nos résultats indiquent qu'à un faible niveau d'interconnexion, la situation actuelle, où un marchand unique possède les droits de transmission et limite le flux pendant les heures de pointe, est bénéfique pour la Finlande. Cependant, en cas d'expansion de la capacité d'interconnexion, «market coupling» est préférable. préférable. Dans tous les cas, la Finlande a intérêt à garder une réserve stratégique, car même si cette politique entraine des coûts, elle lui permet de profiter des avantages de l'intégration tout en limitant ca dépendance envers les importations. En général, nous concluons que si les politiques adéquates sont implémentées, l'intégration des marchés électriques peut amener des bénéfices. Cependant, une grande capacité d'interconnexion n'est désirable que si les pays ont une complémentarité importante et il existe une confiance mutuelle. Les résultats des politiques qui cherchent à préserver la sécurité d'approvisionnement au niveau national peuvent être très contre-intuitifs, étant données les interactions entre les pays voisins et leurs effets sur les investissements en génération et en interconnexion. Il est donc très important pour les régulateurs de comprendre ces interactions et de coordonner décisions à fin de pouvoir profiter de l'interconnexion sans mettre en danger la sécurité d'approvisionnement. Mais il faut être conscients que même quand l'intégration amène de bénéfices pour la région, certains participants au marché sont perdants et pourraient essayer de bloquer le processus d'intégration.

Modelling the consequences of a reduction in alcohol consumption among patients with alcohol dependence based on real-life observational data.

BACKGROUND: Most available pharmacotherapies for alcohol-dependent patients target abstinence; however, reduced alcohol consumption may be a more realistic goal. Using randomized clinical trial (RCT) data, a previous microsimulation model evaluated the clinical relevance of reduced consumption in terms of avoided alcohol-attributable events. Using real-life observational data, the current analysis aimed to adapt the model and confirm previous findings about the clinical relevance of reduced alcohol consumption. METHODS: Based on the prospective observational CONTROL study, evaluating daily alcohol consumption among alcohol-dependent patients, the model predicted the probability of drinking any alcohol during a given day. Predicted daily alcohol consumption was simulated in a hypothetical sample of 200,000 patients observed over a year. Individual total alcohol consumption (TAC) and number of heavy drinking days (HDD) were derived. Using published risk equations, probabilities of alcohol-attributable adverse health events (e.g., hospitalizations or death) corresponding to simulated consumptions were computed, and aggregated for categories of patients defined by HDDs and TAC (expressed per 100,000 patient-years). Sensitivity analyses tested model robustness. RESULTS: Shifting from >220 HDDs per year to 120-140 HDDs and shifting from 36,000-39,000 g TAC per year (120-130 g/day) to 15,000-18,000 g TAC per year (50-60 g/day) impacted substantially on the incidence of events (14,588 and 6148 events avoided per 100,000 patient-years, respectively). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates the previous microsimulation modeling approach and, using real-life data, confirms RCT-based findings that reduced alcohol consumption is a relevant objective for consideration in alcohol dependence management to improve public health.

Cross-border transmission capacity development – Experiences from the Nordic electricity markets

The liberalisation of the wholesale electricity markets has been considered an efficient way to organise the markets. In Europe, the target is to liberalise and integrate the common European electricity markets. However, insufficient transmission capacity between the market areas hampers the integration, and therefore, new investments are required. Again, massive transmission capacity investments are not usually easy to carry through. This doctoral dissertation aims at elaborating on critical determinants required to deliver the necessary transmission capacity investments. The Nordic electricity market is used as an illustrative example. This study suggests that changes in the governance structure have affected the delivery of Nordic cross-border investments. In addition, the impacts of not fully delivered investments are studied in this doctoral dissertation. An insufficient transmission network can degrade the market uniformity and may also cause a need to split the market into smaller submarkets. This may have financial impacts on market actors when the targeted efficient sharing of resources is not met and even encourage gaming. The research methods applied in this doctoral dissertation are mainly empirical ranging from a Delphi study to case studies and numerical calculations.