The risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair

This thesis studies survival analysis techniques dealing with censoring to produce predictive tools that predict the risk of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) re-intervention. Censoring indicates that some patients do not continue follow up, so their outcome class is unknown. Methods dealing with censoring have drawbacks and cannot handle the high censoring of the two EVAR datasets collected. Therefore, this thesis presents a new solution to high censoring by modifying an approach that was incapable of differentiating between risks groups of aortic complications. Feature selection (FS) becomes complicated with censoring. Most survival FS methods depends on Cox's model, however machine learning classifiers (MLC) are preferred. Few methods adopted MLC to perform survival FS, but they cannot be used with high censoring. This thesis proposes two FS methods which use MLC to evaluate features. The two FS methods use the new solution to deal with censoring. They combine factor analysis with greedy stepwise FS search which allows eliminated features to enter the FS process. The first FS method searches for the best neural networks' configuration and subset of features. The second approach combines support vector machines, neural networks, and K nearest neighbor classifiers using simple and weighted majority voting to construct a multiple classifier system (MCS) for improving the performance of individual classifiers. It presents a new hybrid FS process by using MCS as a wrapper method and merging it with the iterated feature ranking filter method to further reduce the features. The proposed techniques outperformed FS methods based on Cox's model such as; Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator in the log-rank test's p-values, sensitivity, and concordance. This proves that the proposed techniques are more powerful in correctly predicting the risk of re-intervention. Consequently, they enable doctors to set patients’ appropriate future observation plan.

Növelhető-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képessége az új klasszifikációs módszerek nélkül? (Can the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models be increased without new classification methods?)

A Bázel–2. tőkeegyezmény bevezetését követően a bankok és hitelintézetek Magyarországon is megkezdték saját belső minősítő rendszereik felépítését, melyek karbantartása és fejlesztése folyamatos feladat. A szerző arra a kérdésre keres választ, hogy lehetséges-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képességét növelni a hagyományos matematikai-statisztikai módszerek alkalmazásával oly módon, hogy a modellekbe a pénzügyi mutatószámok időbeli változásának mértékét is beépítjük. Az empirikus kutatási eredmények arra engednek következtetni, hogy a hazai vállalkozások pénzügyi mutatószámainak időbeli alakulása fontos információt hordoz a vállalkozás jövőbeli fizetőképességéről, mivel azok felhasználása jelentősen növeli a csődmodellek előre jelző képességét. A szerző azt is megvizsgálja, hogy javítja-e a megfigyelések szélsőségesen magas vagy alacsony értékeinek modellezés előtti korrekciója a modellek klasszifikációs teljesítményét. ______ Banks and lenders in Hungary also began, after the introduction of the Basel 2 capital agreement, to build up their internal rating systems, whose maintenance and development are a continuing task. The author explores whether it is possible to increase the predictive capacity of business-failure forecasting models by traditional mathematical-cum-statistical means in such a way that they incorporate the measure of change in the financial indicators over time. Empirical findings suggest that the temporal development of the financial indicators of firms in Hungary carries important information about future ability to pay, since the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models is greatly increased by using such indicators. The author also examines whether the classification performance of the models can be improved by correcting for extremely high or low values before modelling.

Developing brownfields ranking models using decision analytic methods

The redevelopment of Brownfields has taken off in the 1990s, supported by federal and state incentives, and largely accomplished by local initiatives. Brownfields redevelopment has several associated benefits. These include the revitalization of inner-city neighborhoods, creation of jobs, stimulation of tax revenues, greater protection of public health and natural resources, the renewal and reuse existing civil infrastructure and Greenfields protection. While these benefits are numerous, the obstacles to Brownfields redevelopment are also very much alive. Redevelopment issues typically embrace a host of financial and legal liability concerns, technical and economic constraints, competing objectives, and uncertainties arising from inadequate site information. Because the resources for Brownfields redevelopment are usually limited, local programs will require creativity in addressing these existing obstacles in a manner that extends their limited resources for returning Brownfields to productive uses. Such programs may benefit from a structured and defensible decision framework to prioritize sites for redevelopment: one that incorporates the desired objectives, corresponding variables and uncertainties associated with Brownfields redevelopment. This thesis demonstrates the use of a decision analytic tool, Bayesian Influence Diagrams, and related decision analytic tools in developing quantitative decision models to evaluate and rank Brownfields sites on the basis of their redevelopment potential.

Optimization models and methods for real-time transportation planning in forestry

Lors du transport du bois de la forêt vers les usines, de nombreux événements imprévus peuvent se produire, événements qui perturbent les trajets prévus (par exemple, en raison des conditions météo, des feux de forêt, de la présence de nouveaux chargements, etc.). Lorsque de tels événements ne sont connus que durant un trajet, le camion qui accomplit ce trajet doit être détourné vers un chemin alternatif. En l’absence d’informations sur un tel chemin, le chauffeur du camion est susceptible de choisir un chemin alternatif inutilement long ou pire, qui est lui-même "fermé" suite à un événement imprévu. Il est donc essentiel de fournir aux chauffeurs des informations en temps réel, en particulier des suggestions de chemins alternatifs lorsqu’une route prévue s’avère impraticable. Les possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus dépendent des caractéristiques de la chaîne logistique étudiée comme la présence de camions auto-chargeurs et la politique de gestion du transport. Nous présentons trois articles traitant de contextes d’application différents ainsi que des modèles et des méthodes de résolution adaptés à chacun des contextes. Dans le premier article, les chauffeurs de camion disposent de l’ensemble du plan hebdomadaire de la semaine en cours. Dans ce contexte, tous les efforts doivent être faits pour minimiser les changements apportés au plan initial. Bien que la flotte de camions soit homogène, il y a un ordre de priorité des chauffeurs. Les plus prioritaires obtiennent les volumes de travail les plus importants. Minimiser les changements dans leurs plans est également une priorité. Étant donné que les conséquences des événements imprévus sur le plan de transport sont essentiellement des annulations et/ou des retards de certains voyages, l’approche proposée traite d’abord l’annulation et le retard d’un seul voyage, puis elle est généralisée pour traiter des événements plus complexes. Dans cette ap- proche, nous essayons de re-planifier les voyages impactés durant la même semaine de telle sorte qu’une chargeuse soit libre au moment de l’arrivée du camion à la fois au site forestier et à l’usine. De cette façon, les voyages des autres camions ne seront pas mo- difiés. Cette approche fournit aux répartiteurs des plans alternatifs en quelques secondes. De meilleures solutions pourraient être obtenues si le répartiteur était autorisé à apporter plus de modifications au plan initial. Dans le second article, nous considérons un contexte où un seul voyage à la fois est communiqué aux chauffeurs. Le répartiteur attend jusqu’à ce que le chauffeur termine son voyage avant de lui révéler le prochain voyage. Ce contexte est plus souple et offre plus de possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus. En plus, le problème hebdomadaire peut être divisé en des problèmes quotidiens, puisque la demande est quotidienne et les usines sont ouvertes pendant des périodes limitées durant la journée. Nous utilisons un modèle de programmation mathématique basé sur un réseau espace-temps pour réagir aux perturbations. Bien que ces dernières puissent avoir des effets différents sur le plan de transport initial, une caractéristique clé du modèle proposé est qu’il reste valable pour traiter tous les imprévus, quelle que soit leur nature. En effet, l’impact de ces événements est capturé dans le réseau espace-temps et dans les paramètres d’entrée plutôt que dans le modèle lui-même. Le modèle est résolu pour la journée en cours chaque fois qu’un événement imprévu est révélé. Dans le dernier article, la flotte de camions est hétérogène, comprenant des camions avec des chargeuses à bord. La configuration des routes de ces camions est différente de celle des camions réguliers, car ils ne doivent pas être synchronisés avec les chargeuses. Nous utilisons un modèle mathématique où les colonnes peuvent être facilement et naturellement interprétées comme des itinéraires de camions. Nous résolvons ce modèle en utilisant la génération de colonnes. Dans un premier temps, nous relaxons l’intégralité des variables de décision et nous considérons seulement un sous-ensemble des itinéraires réalisables. Les itinéraires avec un potentiel d’amélioration de la solution courante sont ajoutés au modèle de manière itérative. Un réseau espace-temps est utilisé à la fois pour représenter les impacts des événements imprévus et pour générer ces itinéraires. La solution obtenue est généralement fractionnaire et un algorithme de branch-and-price est utilisé pour trouver des solutions entières. Plusieurs scénarios de perturbation ont été développés pour tester l’approche proposée sur des études de cas provenant de l’industrie forestière canadienne et les résultats numériques sont présentés pour les trois contextes.

Optimization models and methods for real-time transportation planning in forestry

Lors du transport du bois de la forêt vers les usines, de nombreux événements imprévus peuvent se produire, événements qui perturbent les trajets prévus (par exemple, en raison des conditions météo, des feux de forêt, de la présence de nouveaux chargements, etc.). Lorsque de tels événements ne sont connus que durant un trajet, le camion qui accomplit ce trajet doit être détourné vers un chemin alternatif. En l’absence d’informations sur un tel chemin, le chauffeur du camion est susceptible de choisir un chemin alternatif inutilement long ou pire, qui est lui-même "fermé" suite à un événement imprévu. Il est donc essentiel de fournir aux chauffeurs des informations en temps réel, en particulier des suggestions de chemins alternatifs lorsqu’une route prévue s’avère impraticable. Les possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus dépendent des caractéristiques de la chaîne logistique étudiée comme la présence de camions auto-chargeurs et la politique de gestion du transport. Nous présentons trois articles traitant de contextes d’application différents ainsi que des modèles et des méthodes de résolution adaptés à chacun des contextes. Dans le premier article, les chauffeurs de camion disposent de l’ensemble du plan hebdomadaire de la semaine en cours. Dans ce contexte, tous les efforts doivent être faits pour minimiser les changements apportés au plan initial. Bien que la flotte de camions soit homogène, il y a un ordre de priorité des chauffeurs. Les plus prioritaires obtiennent les volumes de travail les plus importants. Minimiser les changements dans leurs plans est également une priorité. Étant donné que les conséquences des événements imprévus sur le plan de transport sont essentiellement des annulations et/ou des retards de certains voyages, l’approche proposée traite d’abord l’annulation et le retard d’un seul voyage, puis elle est généralisée pour traiter des événements plus complexes. Dans cette ap- proche, nous essayons de re-planifier les voyages impactés durant la même semaine de telle sorte qu’une chargeuse soit libre au moment de l’arrivée du camion à la fois au site forestier et à l’usine. De cette façon, les voyages des autres camions ne seront pas mo- difiés. Cette approche fournit aux répartiteurs des plans alternatifs en quelques secondes. De meilleures solutions pourraient être obtenues si le répartiteur était autorisé à apporter plus de modifications au plan initial. Dans le second article, nous considérons un contexte où un seul voyage à la fois est communiqué aux chauffeurs. Le répartiteur attend jusqu’à ce que le chauffeur termine son voyage avant de lui révéler le prochain voyage. Ce contexte est plus souple et offre plus de possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus. En plus, le problème hebdomadaire peut être divisé en des problèmes quotidiens, puisque la demande est quotidienne et les usines sont ouvertes pendant des périodes limitées durant la journée. Nous utilisons un modèle de programmation mathématique basé sur un réseau espace-temps pour réagir aux perturbations. Bien que ces dernières puissent avoir des effets différents sur le plan de transport initial, une caractéristique clé du modèle proposé est qu’il reste valable pour traiter tous les imprévus, quelle que soit leur nature. En effet, l’impact de ces événements est capturé dans le réseau espace-temps et dans les paramètres d’entrée plutôt que dans le modèle lui-même. Le modèle est résolu pour la journée en cours chaque fois qu’un événement imprévu est révélé. Dans le dernier article, la flotte de camions est hétérogène, comprenant des camions avec des chargeuses à bord. La configuration des routes de ces camions est différente de celle des camions réguliers, car ils ne doivent pas être synchronisés avec les chargeuses. Nous utilisons un modèle mathématique où les colonnes peuvent être facilement et naturellement interprétées comme des itinéraires de camions. Nous résolvons ce modèle en utilisant la génération de colonnes. Dans un premier temps, nous relaxons l’intégralité des variables de décision et nous considérons seulement un sous-ensemble des itinéraires réalisables. Les itinéraires avec un potentiel d’amélioration de la solution courante sont ajoutés au modèle de manière itérative. Un réseau espace-temps est utilisé à la fois pour représenter les impacts des événements imprévus et pour générer ces itinéraires. La solution obtenue est généralement fractionnaire et un algorithme de branch-and-price est utilisé pour trouver des solutions entières. Plusieurs scénarios de perturbation ont été développés pour tester l’approche proposée sur des études de cas provenant de l’industrie forestière canadienne et les résultats numériques sont présentés pour les trois contextes.

Re-imagining school through young people’s drawings

Children’s drawings provide rich qualitative data (Walker, 2008) and “valuable information for the assessment of children's environmental perceptions” (Barraza, 1999, p. 49). They are the primary data source being used to re-imagine school from a student perspective (Schratz & Steiner-Löffler, 1998) in a research project being carried out with primary school students in Queensland, Australia. This paper will report on the progress of this project which addresses a mostly unmet need for students’ perspectives to be included in school design (Rudduck & Flutter, 2004). Grade 5/6 students in a number of primary schools have been invited to submit annotated drawings with up to 200 words of text illustrating their ideal educational spaces. Using purpose-designed analytical tools, the submissions will be compared across student backgrounds and school types to obtain a better understanding of the needs and educational desires of young people in relation to changing learning environments. The findings will inform consideration of the design and use of educational spaces with all work exhibited through a dedicated website. The term ‘educational spaces’ avoids restrictive notions of what the concept of ‘school’ means, referring to any real or virtual space in which teaching and learning may occur or, as Ferguson and Seddon (2007) have referred to it, “the shifting imagery of education” that includes red brick schools and dispersed learning networks. The theoretical framework for this study is grounded in the work of Greene (1995) and Wright-Mills (2001) who cited the deployment of critical and empathic imagination in addressing education reform.

Kava Anxiety Depression Spectrum Study (KADSS): a mixed methods RCT using an aqueous extract of Piper methysticum

Objectives: To report on the design, significance and potential impacts of the first documented human clinical trial assessing the anxiolytic and thymoleptic efficacy of an aqueous monoextract of Piper methysticum (kava). The significance of the qualitative element of our clinical trial is also explored. The Kava Anxiety Depression Spectrum Study (KADSS) is a 3-week placebocontrolled, double-blind, cross-over trial involving 60 adult participants (18—65) with elevated stable anxiety and varying levels of depressive symptoms. Aims: The aims of KADSS are: (1) to determine whether an aqueous standardised extract of kava is effective for the treatment of anxiety; (2) to assess the effects of kava on differing levels of depression; and (3) to explore participants’ experience of taking kava via qualitative research. The study also provides preliminary assessment of the safety of an aqueous extract of kava in humans. Conclusion: If results reveal that the aqueous kava preparation exerts significant anxiolytic effects and appears safe, potentially beneficial impacts may occur. Data supporting a safe and effective kava extract may encourage a re-introduction of kava to Europe, UK and Canada. This may provide a major socioeconomic benefit to Pacific Island nations, and to sufferers of anxiety disorders.

Young people, imagination and re-engagement in the middle years

This article reports on the first stage of a study that uses Young People as Researchers methodology to investigate the phenomenon of middle-year student disengagement. The study obtains student perspectives on the meanings of engagement and disengagement using a variety of innovative research methods. The first stage of the study focused on a two-day workshop giving students and teachers an overview of the project and providing training and experience in conducting research in their schools. The process employed by the study provides spaces and resources for critical thinking and encourages imaginative responses to the real life problems confronting the students and their peers and affecting their educational engagement. This article describes ways in which engagement is viewed both theoretically and through the empirical work of the student researchers, and how various applications of ‘disciplined imagination’ connect with methods of investigating and understanding engagement.

Resistance : re-imagining innovation in higher education teaching and learning

The call to innovate is ubiquitous across the Australian educational policy context. The claims of innovative practices and environments that occur frequently in university mission statements, strategic plans and marketing literature suggest that this exhortation to innovate appears to have been taken up enthusiastically by the university sector. Throughout the history of universities, a range of reported deficiencies of higher education have worked to produce a notion of crisis. At present, it would seem that innovation is positioned as the solution to the notion of crisis. This thesis is an inquiry into how the insistence on innovation works to both enable and constrain teaching and learning practices in Australian universities. Alongside the interplay between innovation and crisis is the link between resistance and innovation, a link which remains largely unproblematized in the scholarly literature. This thesis works to locate and unsettle understandings of a relationship between innovation and Australian higher education. The aim of this inquiry is to generate new understandings of what counts as innovation within this context and how innovation is enacted. The thesis draws on a number of postmodernist theorists, whose works have informed firstly the research method, and then the analysis and findings. Firstly, there is an assumption that power is capillary and works through discourse to enact power relations which shape certain truths (Foucault, 1990). Secondly, this research scrutinised language practices which frame the capacity for individuals to act, alongside the language practices which encourage an individual to adopt certain attitudes and actions as one’s own (Foucault, 1988). Thirdly, innovation talk is read in this thesis as an example of needs talk, that is, as a medium through which what is considered domestic, political or economic is made and contested (Fraser, 1989). Fourthly, relationships between and within discourses were identified and analysed beyond cause and effect descriptions, and more productively considered to be in a constant state of becoming (Deleuze, 1987). Finally, the use of ironic research methods assisted in producing alternate configurations of innovation talk which are useful and new (Rorty, 1989). The theoretical assumptions which underpin this thesis inform a document analysis methodology, used to examine how certain texts work to shape the ways in which innovation is constructed. The data consisted of three Federal higher education funding policies selected on the rationale that these documents, as opposed to state or locally based policy and legislation, represent the only shared policy context for all Australian universities. The analysis first provided a modernist reading of the three documents, and this was followed by postmodernist readings of these same policy documents. The modernist reading worked to locate and describe the current truths about innovation. The historical context in which the policy was produced as well as the textual features of the document itself were important to this reading. In the first modernist reading, the binaries involved in producing proper and improper notions of innovation were described and analysed. In the process of the modernist analysis and the subsequent location of binary organisation, a number of conceptual collisions were identified, and these sites of struggle were revisited, through the application of a postmodernist reading. By applying the theories of Rorty (1989) and Fraser (1989) it became possible to not treat these sites as contradictory and requiring resolution, but rather as spaces in which binary tensions are necessary and productive. This postmodernist reading constructed new spaces for refusing and resisting dominant discourses of innovation which value only certain kinds of teaching and learning practices. By exploring a number of ironic language practices found within the policies, this thesis proposes an alternative way of thinking about what counts as innovation and how it happens. The new readings of innovation made possible through the work of this thesis were in response to a suite of enduring, inter-related questions – what counts as innovation?, who or what supports innovation?, how does innovation occur?, and who are the innovators?. The truths presented in response to these questions were treated as the language practices which constitute a dominant discourse of innovation talk. The collisions that occur within these truths were the contested sites which were of most interest for the analysis. The thesis concludes by presenting a theoretical blueprint which works to shift the boundaries of what counts as innovation and how it happens in a manner which is productive, inclusive and powerful. This blueprint forms the foundation upon which a number of recommendations are made for both my own professional practice and broader contexts. In keeping with the conceptual tone of this study, these recommendations are a suite of new questions which focus attention on the boundaries of innovation talk as an attempt to re-configure what is valued about teaching and learning at university.

Re-thinking home economics : from modern to postmodern accounts of pedagogical bodies

Two perceptions of the marginality of home economics are widespread across educational and other contexts. One is that home economics and those who engage in its pedagogy are inevitably marginalised within patriarchal relations in education and culture. This is because home economics is characterised as women's knowledge, for the private domain of the home. The other perception is that only orthodox epistemological frameworks of inquiry should be used to interrogate this state of affairs. These perceptions have prompted leading theorists in the field to call for non-essentialist approaches to research in order to re-think the thinking that has produced this cul-de-sac positioning of home economics as a body of knowledge and a site of teacher practice. This thesis takes up the challenge of working to locate a space outside the frame of modernist research theory and methods, recognising that this shift in epistemology is necessary to unsettle the idea that home economics is inevitably marginalised. The purpose of the study is to reconfigure how we have come to think about home economics teachers and the profession of home economics as a site of cultural practice, in order to think it otherwise (Lather, 1991). This is done by exploring how the culture of home economics is being contested from within. To do so, the thesis uses a 'posthumanist' approach, which rejects the conception of the individual as a unitary and fixed entity, but instead as a subject in process, shaped by desires and language which are not necessarily consciously determined. This posthumanist project focuses attention on pedagogical body subjects as the 'unsaid' of home economics research. It works to transcend the modernist dualism of mind/body, and other binaries central to modernist work, including private/public, male/female,paid/unpaid, and valued/unvalued. In so doing, it refuses the simple margin/centre geometry so characteristic of current perceptions of home economics itself. Three studies make up this work. Studies one and two serve to document the disciplined body of home economics knowledge, the governance of which works towards normalisation of the 'proper' home economics teacher. The analysis of these accounts of home economics teachers by home economics teachers, reveals that home economics teachers are 'skilled' yet they 'suffer' for their profession. Further,home economics knowledge is seen to be complicit in reinforcing the traditional roles of masculinity and femininity, thereby reinforcing heterosexual normativity which is central to patriarchal society. The third study looks to four 'atypical'subjects who defy the category of 'proper' and 'normal' home economics teacher. These 'atypical' bodies are 'skilled' but fiercely reject the label of 'suffering'. The discussion of the studies is a feminist poststructural account, using Russo's (1994) notion of the grotesque body, which is emergent from Bakhtin's (1968) theory of the carnivalesque. It draws on the 'shreds' of home economics pedagogy,scrutinising them for their subversive, transformative potential. In this analysis, the giving and taking of pleasure and fun in the home economics classroom presents moments of surprise and of carnival. Foucault's notion of the construction of the ethical individual shows these 'atypical' bodies to be 'immoderate' yet striving hard to be 'continent' body subjects. This research captures moments of transgression which suggest that transformative moments are already embodied in the pedagogical practices of home economics teachers, and these can be 'seen' when re-looking through postmodemist lenses. Hence, the cultural practices ofhome economics as inevitably marginalised are being contested from within. Until now, home economics as a lived culture has failed to recognise possibilities for reconstructing its own field beyond the confines of modernity. This research is an example of how to think about home economics teachers and the profession as a reconfigured cultural practice. Future research about home economics as a body of knowledge and a site of teacher practice need not retell a simple story of oppression. Using postmodemist epistemologies is one way to provide opportunities for new ways of looking.

Is it necessary to re-fuse a non-union of a hallux metatarsophalangeal joint arthrodesis?

BACKGROUND: The standard treatment for a non-union of the hallux metatarsophalangeal joint fusion has been to revise the fusion. Revision fusion is technically more demanding, often involving bone grafting, more substantial fixation and prolonged period of immobilization postoperatively. We present data to suggest that removal of hardware and debridement alone is an alternative treatment option. ---------- MATERIALS AND METHODS: A case note review identified patients with a symptomatic non-union after hallux metatarsophalangeal joint (MTPJ) fusion. It is our practice to offer these patients revision fusion or removal of hardware and debridement. For the seven patients that chose hardware removal and were left with a pseudarthrosis, a matched control group was selected from patients who had had successful fusions. Three outcome scores were used. Hallux valgus and dorsiflexion angles were recorded.---------- RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine hallux MTPJ arthrodeses were carried out. Fourteen non-unions were identified. The rate of non-union in males and following previous hallux MTPJ surgery was 19% and 24%, respectively. In females undergoing a primary MTPJ fusion, the rate was 2.4%. Twelve non-union patients were reviewed at 27 months (mean). Eleven patients had elected to undergo removal of hardware and debridement. Four patients with pseudarthrosis were unhappy with the results and proceeded to either revision fusion or MTPJ replacement. Seven non-union patients, who had removal of hardware alone, had outcome scores marginally worse compared to those with successful fusions.---------- CONCLUSION: Removal of hardware alone is a reasonable option to offer as a relatively minor procedure following a failed arthrodesis of the first MTPJ. This must be accepted on the proviso that in this study four out of 11 (36%) patients proceeded to a revision first MTPJ fusion or first MTPJ replacement. We also found that the rate of non-union in primary first MTPJ fusion was significantly higher in males and those patients who had undergone previous surgery.

New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Multi-criteria ranking and receptor modelling of airborne fine particles at three sites in the Pearl River Delta region of China

The multi-criteria decision making methods, Preference METHods for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) and Graphical Analysis for Interactive Assistance (GAIA), and the two-way Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor model were applied to airborne fine particle compositional data collected at three sites in Hong Kong during two monitoring campaigns held from November 2000 to October 2001 and November 2004 to October 2005. PROMETHEE/GAIA indicated that the three sites were worse during the later monitoring campaign, and that the order of the air quality at the sites during each campaign was: rural site > urban site > roadside site. The PMF analysis on the other hand, identified 6 common sources at all of the sites (diesel vehicle, fresh sea salt, secondary sulphate, soil, aged sea salt and oil combustion) which accounted for approximately 68.8 ± 8.7% of the fine particle mass at the sites. In addition, road dust, gasoline vehicle, biomass burning, secondary nitrate, and metal processing were identified at some of the sites. Secondary sulphate was found to be the highest contributor to the fine particle mass at the rural and urban sites with vehicle emission as a high contributor to the roadside site. The PMF results are broadly similar to those obtained in a previous analysis by PCA/APCS. However, the PMF analysis resolved more factors at each site than the PCA/APCS. In addition, the study demonstrated that combined results from multi-criteria decision making analysis and receptor modelling can provide more detailed information that can be used to formulate the scientific basis for mitigating air pollution in the region.