A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.

An empirical model to estimate the demand for primary care in urban settings

Objective. To measure the demand for primary care and its associated factors by building and estimating a demand model of primary care in urban settings.^ Data source. Secondary data from 2005 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS 2005), a population-based random-digit dial telephone survey, conducted by the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research in collaboration with the California Department of Health Services, and the Public Health Institute between July 2005 and April 2006.^ Study design. A literature review was done to specify the demand model by identifying relevant predictors and indicators. CHIS 2005 data was utilized for demand estimation.^ Analytical methods. The probit regression was used to estimate the use/non-use equation and the negative binomial regression was applied to the utilization equation with the non-negative integer dependent variable.^ Results. The model included two equations in which the use/non-use equation explained the probability of making a doctor visit in the past twelve months, and the utilization equation estimated the demand for primary conditional on at least one visit. Among independent variables, wage rate and income did not affect the primary care demand whereas age had a negative effect on demand. People with college and graduate educational level were associated with 1.03 (p < 0.05) and 1.58 (p < 0.01) more visits, respectively, compared to those with no formal education. Insurance was significantly and positively related to the demand for primary care (p < 0.01). Need for care variables exhibited positive effects on demand (p < 0.01). Existence of chronic disease was associated with 0.63 more visits, disability status was associated with 1.05 more visits, and people with poor health status had 4.24 more visits than those with excellent health status. ^ Conclusions. The average probability of visiting doctors in the past twelve months was 85% and the average number of visits was 3.45. The study emphasized the importance of need variables in explaining healthcare utilization, as well as the impact of insurance, employment and education on demand. The two-equation model of decision-making, and the probit and negative binomial regression methods, was a useful approach to demand estimation for primary care in urban settings.^

Age model and sedimentation rate of core M174/KL11 (Table 1)

Stable isotope and faunal records from the central Red Sea show high-amplitude oscillations for the past 380,000 years. Positive delta18O anomalies indicate periods of significant salt buildup during periods of lowered sea level when water mass exchange with the Arabian Sea was reduced due to a reduced geometry of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Salinities as high as 53 per mil and 55 per mil are inferred from pteropod and benthic foraminifera delta18O, respectively, for the last glacial maximum. During this period all planktonic foraminifera vanished from this part of the Red Sea. Environmental conditions improved rapidly after 13 ka as salinities decreased due to rising sea level. The foraminiferal fauna started to reappear and was fully reestablished between 9 ka and 8 ka. Spectral analysis of the planktonic delta18O record documents highest variance in the orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands, indicating a dominant influence of climatically - driven sea level change on environmental conditions in the Red Sea. Variance in the precession band is enhanced compared to the global mean marine climate record (SPECMAP), suggesting an additional influence of the Indian monsoon system on Red Sea climates.

The Role of Cannabinoids in the Neurobiology of Sensory Gating: A firing rate model study

Gating of sensory (e.g. auditory) information has been demonstrated as a reduction in the auditory-evoked potential responses recorded in the brain of both normal animals and human subjects. Auditory gating is perturbed in schizophrenic patients and pharmacologically by drugs such as amphetamine, phencyclidine or ketamine, which precipitate schizophrenic-like symptoms in normal subjects. The neurobiological basis underlying this sensory gating can be investigated using local field potential recordings from single electrodes. In this paper we use such technology to investigate the role of cannabinoids in sensory gating. Cannabinoids represent a fundamentally new class of retrograde messengers which are released postsynaptically and bind to presynaptic receptors. In this way they allow fine-tuning of neuronal response, and in particular can lead to so-called depolarization-induced suppression of inhibition (DSI). Our experimental results show that application of the exogenous cannabinoid WIN55, 212-2 can abolish sensory gating as measured by the amplitude of local field responses in rat hippocampal region CA3. Importantly we develop a simple firing rate population model of CA3 and show that gating is heavily dependent upon the presence of a slow inhibitory (GABAB) pathway. Moreover, a simple phenomenological model of cannabinoid dynamics underlying DSI is shown to abolish gating in a manner consistent with our experimental findings.

Preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide

Background: The seasonality of suicide has long been recognised. However, little is known about the relative importance of socio-environmental factors in the occurrence of suicide in different geographical areas. This study examined the association of climate, socioeconomic and demographic factors with suicide in Queensland, Australia, using a spatiotemporal approach. Methods: Seasonal data on suicide, demographic variables and socioeconomic indexes for areas in each Local Government Area (LGA) between 1999 and 2003 were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Climate data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A multivariable generalized estimating equation model was used to examine the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide. Results: The preliminary data analyses show that far north Queensland had the highest suicide incidence (e.g., Cook and Mornington Shires), while the south-western areas had the lowest incidence (e.g., Barcoo and Bauhinia Shires) in all the seasons. Maximum temperature, unemployment rate, the proportion of Indigenous population and the proportion of population with low individual income were statistically significantly and positively associated with suicide. There were weaker but not significant associations for other variables. Conclusions: Maximum temperature, the proportion of Indigenous population and unemployment rate appeared to be major determinants of suicide at a LGA level in Queensland.

Relative entropy rate based design for linear hybrid system models

Hybrid system representations have been applied to many challenging modeling situations. In these hybrid system representations, a mixture of continuous and discrete states is used to capture the dominating behavioural features of a nonlinear, possible uncertain, model under approximation. Unfortunately, the problem of how to best design a suitable hybrid system model has not yet been fully addressed. This paper proposes a new joint state measurement relative entropy rate based approach for this design purpose. Design examples and simulation studies are presented which highlight the benefits of our proposed design approaches.