Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

The credit risk(+) model with general sector correlations

We consider an enhancement of the credit risk+ model to incorporate correlations between sectors. We model the sector default rates as linear combinations of a common set of independent variables that represent macro-economic variables or risk factors. We also derive the formula for exact VaR contributions at the obligor level.

Synthetic peptides as chemoattractants for bull spermatozoa structure activity correlations

The ability of various synthetic peptide analogs of. Formyl-Met-Leu-Phe to induce chemotaxis in bull sperm is compared using an inverted capillary assay. The formyl group is essential for chemotactic activity and corresponding t-butyloxycarbonyl tripeptides are inactive. Sequence analogs, Formyl-Met-Phe-Leu, Formyl-Leu-Met-Phe and Formyl-Leu-Phe-Met are active. Replacement of Met and Leu by Pro does not diminish activity. Formyl-Met-Leu-Phe-NH2 is active suggesting that electrostatic interactions involving the carboxyl group may be unimportant in receptor interactions. The studies establish the importance of an amino terminal formyl group and a sequence of at least three hydrophobic residues, for inducing sperm chemotaxis.

High subsoil chloride concentrations reduce soil water extraction and crop yield on Vertosols in north-eastern Australia

Salinity, sodicity, acidity, and phytotoxic levels of chloride (Cl) in subsoils are major constraints to crop production in many soils of north-eastern Australia because they reduce the ability of crop roots to extract water and nutrients from the soil. The complex interactions and correlations among soil properties result in multi-colinearity between soil properties and crop yield that makes it difficult to determine which constraint is the major limitation. We used ridge-regression analysis to overcome colinearity to evaluate the contribution of soil factors and water supply to the variation in the yields of 5 winter crops on soils with various levels and combinations of subsoil constraints in the region. Subsoil constraints measured were soil Cl, electrical conductivity of the saturation extract (ECse), and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The ridge regression procedure selected several of the variables used in a descriptive model, which included in-crop rainfall, plant-available soil water at sowing in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and soil Cl in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and accounted for 77-85% of the variation in the grain yields of the 5 winter crops. Inclusion of ESP of the top soil (0.0-0.10 m soil layer) marginally increased the descriptive capability of the models for bread wheat, barley and durum wheat. Subsoil Cl concentration was found to be an effective substitute for subsoil water extraction. The estimates of the critical levels of subsoil Cl for a 10% reduction in the grain yield were 492 mg cl/kg for chickpea, 662 mg Cl/kg for durum wheat, 854 mg Cl/kg for bread wheat, 980 mg Cl/kg for canola, and 1012 mg Cl/kg for barley, thus suggesting that chickpea and durum wheat were more sensitive to subsoil Cl than bread wheat, barley, and canola.

Heritability of reproductive traits and genetic correlations with growth in the black tiger prawn Penaeus monodon reared in tanks

Captive-reared broodstock of the black tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) have exhibited poor reproductive performance limiting attempts to domesticate this species. The potential for improved reproductive performance was assessed by determining heritabilities of four measures of reproductive performance, their genetic correlations with each other and with growth rate and weight at age. Heritability estimates (h2 ± S.E.) obtained from √ (days to spawn), √ (egg number), √ (nauplii number) and arcsin √ (proportion hatched) were 0.47 ± 0.15, 0.41 ± 0.18, 0.27 ± 0.16, and 0.18 ± 0.16, respectively. Estimates of genetic correlations between reproductive traits and weight at age, or growth rate were less than 0.5 except for √ (egg number) and weight at 54 weeks (0.93 ± 0.19) and √ (egg number) and 16-54-week growth (0.63 ± 0.29).

Spatial correlations around a Kondo impurity

We present a method for calculating zero-frequency, spatially varying response and correlation functions around a magnetic impurity in metals. We illustrate the procedure which involves a combination of perturbative scaling and nonperturbative renormalization-group methods for the spin-(1/2) Kondo impurity. We explain the factorization of the temperature and spatial dependence of the Knight shift observed in NMR experiments.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Test and develop sustainable and profitable grazing strategies to manage for rainfall variability

The Wambiana grazing trial started in 1997 to test and develop sustainable and profitable grazing strategies to manage for rainfall variability. It is important that this trial continue as the results are still relatively short-term relative to rainfall cycles and significant treatment changes are still occurring. This new proposal will maintain baseline treatments but will modify others based on trial learning’s to date. It builds on treatment differences and evidence collected over the last 12 years to deliver evidence-based guidelines and principles for sustainable and productive management. The trial also links to other projects modelling water quality, climate change, methane emissions and soil C sequestration on grazing lands.

Water and thermal regimes for field pea in Australia and their implications for breeding.

There is a large gap between the refined approaches to characterise genotypes and the common use of location and season as a coarse surrogate for environmental characterisation of breeding trials. As a framework for breeding, the aim of this paper is quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal and water stress for field pea in Australia. We compiled a dataset for yield of the cv. Kaspa measured in 185 environments, and investigated the associations between yield and seasonal patterns of actual temperature and modelled water stress. Correlations between yield and temperature indicated two distinct stages. In the first stage, during crop establishment and canopy expansion before flowering, yield was positively associated with minimum temperature. Mean minimum temperature below similar to 7 degrees C suggests that crops were under suboptimal temperature for both canopy expansion and radiation-use efficiency during a significant part of this early growth period. In the second stage, during critical reproductive phases, grain yield was negatively associated with maximum temperature over 25 degrees C. Correlations between yield and modelled water supply/demand ratio showed a consistent pattern with three phases: no correlation at early stages of the growth cycle, a progressive increase in the association that peaked as the crop approached the flowering window, and a progressive decline at later reproductive stages. Using long-term weather records (1957-2010) and modelled water stress for 104 locations, we identified three major patterns of water deficit nation wide. Environment type 1 (ET1) represents the most favourable condition, with no stress during most of the pre-flowering phase and gradual development of mild stress after flowering. Type 2 is characterised by increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and 200 degree-days after flowering and rainfall that relieves stress late in the season. Type 3 represents the more stressful condition with increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and maturity. Across Australia, the frequency of occurrence was 24% for ET1, 32% for ET2 and 43% for ET3, highlighting the dominance of the most stressful condition. Actual yield averaged 2.2 t/ha for ET1, 1.9 t/ha for ET2 and 1.4 t/ha for ET3, and the frequency of each pattern varied substantially among locations. Shifting from a nominal (i.e. location and season) to a quantitative (i.e. stress type) characterisation of environments could help improving breeding efficiency of field pea in Australia.

Ionophore-mediated transmembrane movement of divalent cations in small unilamellar liposomes: An evaluation of the chlortetracycline fluorescence technique and correlations with black lipid membrane studies

Conceptual advances in the field of membrane transport have, in the main, utilized artificial membranes, both planar and vesicular. Systems of biological interest,viz., cells and organelles, resemble vesicles in size and geometry. Methods are, therefore, required to extend the results obtained with planar membranes to liposome systems. In this report we present an analysis of a fluorescence technique, using the divalent cation probe chlortetracycline, in small, unilamellar vesicles, for the study of divalent cation fluxes. An ion carrier (X537 A) and a pore former (alamethicin) have been studied. The rate of rise of fluorescence signal and the transmembrane ion gradient have been related to transmembrane current and potential, respectively. A second power dependence of ion conduction-including the electrically silent portion thereof — on X537 A concentration, has been observed. An exponential dependence of ldquocurrentrdquo on ldquotransmembrane potentialrdquo in the case of alamethicin is also confirmed. Possible errors in the technique are discussed.

Eriophyid mites on spotted gums: population and histological damage studies of an emerging pest

A suite of co-occurring eriophyid mite species are significant pests in subtropical Australia, causing severe discolouration, blistering, necrosis and leaf loss to one of the region's most important hardwood species, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (F. Muell.) K. D. Hill & L. A. S. Johnson (Myrtaceae). In this study, we examined mite population dynamics and leaf damage over a 1-year period in a commercial plantation of C. citriodora subsp. variegata. Our aims were to link the incidence and severity of mite damage, and mite numbers, to leaf physical traits (moisture content and specific leaf weight (SLW)); to identify any seasonal changes in leaf surface occupancy (upper vs. lower lamina); and host tree canopy strata (upper, mid or lower canopy). We compared population trends with site rainfall, temperature and humidity. We also examined physical and anatomical changes in leaf tissue in response to mite infestation to characterize the plants' physiological reaction to feeding, and how this might affect photosynthesis. Our main findings included positive correlations with leaf moisture content and mite numbers and with mite numbers and damage severity. Wet and dry leaf mass and SLW were greater for damaged tissue than undamaged tissue. Mites were distributed equally throughout the canopy and on both leaf surfaces. No relationships with climatic factors were found. Damage symptoms occurred equally and were exactly mirrored on both leaf surfaces. Mite infestation increased the overall epidermal thickness and the number and size of epidermal cells and was also associated with a rapid loss of chloroplasts from mesophyll cells beneath damage sites. The integrity of the stomatal complex was severely compromised in damaged tissues. These histological changes suggest that damage by these mites will negatively impact the photosynthetic efficiency of susceptible plantation species.

Separating grazing and rainfall effects at regional scale using remote sensing imagery: A dynamic reference-cover method

Remote detection of management-related trend in the presence of inter-annual climatic variability in the rangelands is difficult. Minimally disturbed reference areas provide a useful guide, but suitable benchmarks are usually difficult to identify. We describe a method that uses a unique conceptual framework to identify reference areas from multitemporal sequences of ground cover derived from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. The method does not require ground-based reference sites nor GIS layers about management. We calculate a minimum ground cover image across all years to identify locations of most persistent ground cover in years of lowest rainfall. We then use a moving window approach to calculate the difference between the window's central pixel and its surrounding reference pixels. This difference estimates ground-cover change between successive below-average rainfall years, which provides a seasonally interpreted measure of management effects. We examine the approach's sensitivity to window size and to cover-index percentiles used to define persistence. The method successfully detected management-related change in ground cover in Queensland tropical savanna woodlands in two case studies: (1) a grazing trial where heavy stocking resulted in substantial decline in ground cover in small paddocks, and (2) commercial paddocks where wet-season spelling (destocking) resulted in increased ground cover. At a larger scale, there was broad agreement between our analysis of ground-cover change and ground-based land condition change for commercial beef properties with different a priori ratings of initial condition, but there was also some disagreement where changing condition reflected pasture composition rather than ground cover. We conclude that the method is suitably robust to analyse grazing effects on ground cover across the 1.3 x 10(6) km(2) of Queensland's rangelands. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.