Factors predicting mortality after tips for refractory ascites: a single center experience

Introduction: Transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is an accepted indication for treating refractory ascites. Different models have been proposed for the prediction of survival after TIPS; aim of present study was to evaluate the factors associated with mortality after TIPS for refractory ascites. Methods: Seventy-three consecutive patients undergoing a TIPS for refractory ascites in our centre between 2003 and 2008, were prospectively recorded in a database ad were the subject of the study. Mean follow-up was 17±2 months. Forty patients were awaiting liver transplantation (LT) and 12 (16.4%) underwent LT during follow-up. Results: Mean MELD at the moment of TIPS was 15.7±5.3. Overall mortality was 23.3% (n=17) with a mean survival after TIPS of 17±14 months. MELD score (B=0.161, p=0.042), AST (B= 0.020, p=0.090) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.016, p=0.093) were independent predictors of overall mortality. On multivariate analysis MELD (B=0.419, p=0.018) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.223, p=0.060) independently predicted 1 year survival. Patients were stratified into categories of death risk, using ROC curves for the variables MELD and HVPG. Patients with MELD<10 had a low probability of death after TIPS (n=6, 16% mortality); patients with HVPG <16 mmHg (n=6) had no mortality. Maximum risk of death was found in patients with MELD score 19 (n=16, 31% mortality) and in those with HVPG 25 mmHg (n=27, 26% mortality). Conclusions: TIPS increases overall survival in patients with refractory ascites. Liver function (assessed by MELD), necroinflammation (AST) and portal hypertension (HVPG) are independent predictors of survival; patients with MELD>19 and HVPG>25 mmHg are at highest risk of death after TIPS

Identificazione e dosaggio di marcatori molecolari dell'endometriosi nel sangue periferico

Purpose: to quantify the mRNA levels of MMP-3, MMP-9, VEGF and Survivin in peripheral blood and the serum levels of CA-125, Ca19-9 in women with and without endometriosis and to investigate the performance of these markers to differentiate between deep and ovarian endometriosis. Methods: a case controls study enrolled a series of 60 patients. Twenty controls have been matched with 20 cases of ovarian and 20 cases of deep endometriosis. Univariable and multivariable performance of serum CA125 and CA19-9, mRNA for Survivin, MMP9, MMP3 and VEGF genes have been evaluated by means of ROC curves and logistic regression respectively. Results: No difference in markers concentration were detected between ovarian and deep endometriosis. In comparison with controls serum CA19 and CA125 yielded the better sensitivity followed by mRNA for Survivin gene (81.5%, 51.9% and 7.5% at 10% false positive rate respectively). Multivariable estimated odds of endometriosis yielded a sensitivity of 87% at the same false positive rate. Conclusions: A combination of serum and molecular markers could allow a better diagnosis of endometriosis.

Il monitoraggio della qualità di vita e dei bisogni di pazienti oncologici e caregiver: il caso ANT

La Fondazione ANT rappresenta una delle più ampie esperienze al mondo di assistenza socio-sanitaria gratuita a domicilio ai malati di tumore, tramite équipe di specialisti costituite da medici, psicologi e infermieri. La patologia oncologica ha un enorme impatto sul benessere dei pazienti. Un modo per raggruppare i diversi sintomi di disagio psicologico è utilizzare il concetto di distress, che sarebbe importante monitorare in modo semplice e veloce. Primo studio: 66 pazienti oncologici (40% uomini; età media 54 anni) in cure palliative domiciliari. Il 79% dei pazienti ha mostrato livelli clinicamente significativi di distress. Il 55% dei partecipanti allo studio ha riportato alti livelli di ansia, e l'81% dei pazienti ha riportato alti livelli di depressione. Dall'analisi delle curve ROC il singolo item del Distress Thermometer, con un cut-off maggiore o uguale a 4, è stato in grado di rilevare il 97% dei soggetti con punteggi clinici di ansia e depressione, quindi può essere utilizzato anche come uno strumento di screening precoce rapido ed affidabile per i disturbi dell'umore. I familiari sono la prima risorsa dei malati di tumore, e l'identificazione dei loro bisogni è utile per individuare chi ha maggiore necessità di aiuto ed in quali aree. Secondo studio: 115 caregiver di pazienti oncologici (37% uomini; età media 52 anni). Di seguito i bisogni più frequenti. Salute psicofisica: “preoccupazioni circa il/la paziente” (72%), ansia (53%) e rabbia (52%). Informazioni: “come prendersi cura del paziente” (64%), “terapie alternative e/o complementari” (64%) e “come gestire lo stress” (57%). Servizi e strutture sanitarie: “un operatore di riferimento”, (65%), “cure infermieristiche a domicilio” (62%), “indicazioni su servizi ospedalieri” (57%), ed “assistenza per caregiver, ad esempio consulenza psicologica” (55%). Il monitoraggio dei bisogni consentirebbe un'ottimizzazione dell'assistenza, prevenendo situazioni che potrebbero compromettere il benessere della famiglia e la qualità dell'assistenza fornita al paziente.

Predictive ability of a modified Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Questionnaire in an acute/subacute low back pain working population

The original 'Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Questionnaire' (original-ÖMPQ) has been shown to have limitations in practicality, factor structure, face and content validity. This study addressed these concerns by modifying its content producing the 'Örebro Musculoskeletal Screening Questionnaire' (ÖMSQ). The ÖMSQ and original-ÖMPQ were tested concurrently in acute/subacute low back pain working populations (pilot n = 44, main n = 106). The ÖMSQ showed improved face and content validity, which broadened potential application, and improved practicality with two-thirds less missing responses. High reliability (0.975, p < 0.05, ICC: 2.1), criterion validity (Spearman's r = 0.97) and internal consistency (α = 0.84) were achieved, as were predictive ability cut-off scores from ROC curves (112-120 ÖMSQ-points), statistically different ÖMSQ scores (p < 0.001) for each outcome trait, and a strong correlation with recovery time (Spearman's, r = 0.71). The six-component factor structure reflected the constructs originally proposed. The ÖMSQ can be substituted for the original-ÖMPQ in this population. Further research will assess its applicability in broader populations.

Mannitol dry powder challenge in comparison with exercise testing in children

Rationale Mannitol dry powder (MDP) challenge is an indirect bronchial provocation test, which is well studied in adults but not established for children. Objective We compared feasibility, validity, and clinical significance of MDP challenge with exercise testing in children in a clinical setting. Methods Children aged 6–16 years, referred to two respiratory outpatient clinics for possible asthma diagnosis, underwent standardized exercise testing followed within a week by an MDP challenge (Aridol™, Pharmaxis, Australia). Agreement between the two challenge tests using Cohen's kappa and receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curves was compared. Results One hundred eleven children performed both challenge tests. Twelve children were excluded due to exhaustion or insufficient cooperation (11 at the exercise test, 1 at the MDP challenge), leaving 99 children (mean ± SD age 11.5 ± 2.7 years) for analysis. MDP tests were well accepted, with minor side effects and a shorter duration than exercise tests. The MDP challenge was positive in 29 children (29%), the exercise test in 21 (21%). Both tests were concordant in 83 children (84%), with moderate agreement (κ = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39–0.76). Positive and negative predictive values of the MDP challenge for exercise-induced bronchoconstriction were 68% and 89%. The overall ability of MDP challenge to separate children with or without positive exercise tests was good (area under the ROC curve 0.83). Conclusions MDP challenge test is feasible in children and is a suitable alternative for bronchial challenge testing in childhood. Pediatr. Pulmonol. 2011; 46:842–848. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elderly patients with pulmonary embolism

Background: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), and its simplified version (sPESI) are well known clinical prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE).Objectives: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with PE. Patients/Methods: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥65 years with symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low- vs. higher-risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤2 vs. >2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V, and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P<0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared to 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95%CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P=0.47). Conclusions: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Chronotropic incompetence predicts impaired response to exercise training in heart failure patients in sinus rhythm

Background: In most patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), endurance training improves exercise capacity. However, some patients do not respond favourably. The purpose of this study was to explore the reasons of non-response and to determine their predictive value.Methods: We studied a cohort of 120 consecutive CHF patients with sinus rhythm (mean age 57 ± 12 years, ejection fraction 29.3 ± 9.9%, peak VO2 17.3 ± 5.1 ml/min/kg), participating in a 3-month outpatient cardiac rehabilitation programme. Responders were defined as subjects who improved peak VO2 by more than 5%, work load by more than 10%, or VE/VCO2 slope by more than 5%. Subjects who did not fulfil at least one of the above criteria were characterized as non-responders. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify parameters that were predictive for a response. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed for predictive parameters to identify thresholds for response or non-response.Results: Multivariate regression analyses revealed heart rate (HR) reserve, HR recovery at 1 min, and peak HR as significant predictors for a positive training response. ROC curves revealed the optimal thresholds separating responders from non-responders at less than 30 bpm for HR reserve, less than 6 bpm for HR recovery and less than 101 bpm for peak HR.Conclusions: The presence of impaired chronotropic competence is a major predictor of poor training response in CHF patients with sinus rhythm.

Accuracy of B-type natriuretic peptide tests to exclude congestive heart failure: systematic review of test accuracy studies

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.

Monotone Constrained Tensor-product B-spline with application to screening studies

When different markers are responsive to different aspects of a disease, combination of multiple markers could provide a better screening test for early detection. It is also resonable to assume that the risk of disease changes smoothly as the biomarker values change and the change in risk is monotone with respect to each biomarker. In this paper, we propose a boundary constrained tensor-product B-spline method to estimate the risk of disease by maximizing a penalized likelihood. To choose the optimal amount of smoothing, two scores are proposed which are extensions of the GCV score (O'Sullivan et al. (1986)) and the GACV score (Ziang and Wahba (1996)) to incorporate linear constraints. Simulation studies are carried out to investigate the performance of the proposed estimator and the selection scores. In addidtion, sensitivities and specificities based ona pproximate leave-one-out estimates are proposed to generate more realisitc ROC curves. Data from a pancreatic cancer study is used for illustration.

Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

A unification of models for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies

Studies of diagnostic accuracy require more sophisticated methods for their meta-analysis than studies of therapeutic interventions. A number of different, and apparently divergent, methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies have been proposed, including two alternative approaches that are statistically rigorous and allow for between-study variability: the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) model (Rutter and Gatsonis, 2001) and bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (van Houwelingen and others, 1993), (van Houwelingen and others, 2002), (Reitsma and others, 2005). We show that these two models are very closely related, and define the circumstances in which they are identical. We discuss the different forms of summary model output suggested by the two approaches, including summary ROC curves, summary points, confidence regions, and prediction regions.

Novel pressure-to-cornea index in glaucoma

BACKGROUND: Several conversion tables and formulas have been suggested to correct applanation intraocular pressure (IOP) for central corneal thickness (CCT). CCT is also thought to represent an independent glaucoma risk factor. In an attempt to integrate IOP and CCT into a unified risk factor and avoid uncertain correction for tonometric inaccuracy, a new pressure-to-cornea index (PCI) is proposed. METHODS: PCI (IOP/CCT(3)) was defined as the ratio between untreated IOP and CCT(3) in mm (ultrasound pachymetry). PCI distribution in 220 normal controls, 53 patients with normal-tension glaucoma (NTG), 76 with ocular hypertension (OHT), and 89 with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) was investigated. PCI's ability to discriminate between glaucoma (NTG+POAG) and non-glaucoma (controls+OHT) was compared with that of three published formulae for correcting IOP for CCT. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were built. RESULTS: Mean PCI values were: Controls 92.0 (SD 24.8), NTG 129.1 (SD 25.8), OHT 134.0 (SD 26.5), POAG 173.6 (SD 40.9). To minimise IOP bias, eyes within the same 2 mm Hg range between 16 and 29 mm Hg (16-17, 18-19, etc) were separately compared: control and NTG eyes as well as OHT and POAG eyes differed significantly. PCI demonstrated a larger area under the ROC curve (AUC) and significantly higher sensitivity at fixed 80% and 90% specificities compared with each of the correction formulas; optimum PCI cut-off value 133.8. CONCLUSIONS: A PCI range of 120-140 is proposed as the upper limit of "normality", 120 being the cut-off value for eyes with untreated pressures or=22 mm Hg. PCI may reflect individual susceptibility to a given IOP level, and thus represent a glaucoma risk factor. Longitudinal studies are needed to prove its prognostic value.

Osteoporosis case finding in the general practice: phalangeal radiographic absorptiometry with and without risk factors for osteoporosis to select postmenopausal women eligible for lumbar spine and hip densitometry

Mass screening for osteoporosis using DXA measurements at the spine and hip is presently not recommended by health authorities. Instead, risk factor questionnaires and peripheral bone measurements may facilitate the selection of women eligible for axial bone densitometry. The aim of this study was to validate a case finding strategy for postmenopausal women who would benefit most from subsequent DXA measurement by using phalangeal radiographic absorptiometry (RA) alone or in combination with risk factors in a general practice setting. The sensitivity and specificity of this strategy in detecting osteoporosis (T-score < or =2.5 SD at the spine and/or the hip) were compared with those of the current reimbursement criteria for DXA measurements in Switzerland. Four hundred and twenty-three postmenopausal women with one or more risk factors for osteoporosis were recruited by 90 primary care physicians who also performed the phalangeal RA measurements. All women underwent subsequent DXA measurement of the spine and the hip at the Osteoporosis Policlinic of the University Hospital of Berne. They were allocated to one of two groups depending on whether they matched with the Swiss reimbursement conditions for DXA measurement or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the likelihood of osteoporosis versus "no osteoporosis" and to derive ROC curves for the various strategies. Differences in the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were tested for significance. In women lacking reimbursement criteria, RA achieved a significantly larger AUC (0.81; 95% CI 0.72-0.89) than the risk factors associated with patients' age, height and weight (0.71; 95% C.I. 0.62-0.80). Furthermore, in this study, RA provided a better sensitivity and specificity in identifying women with underlying osteoporosis than the currently accepted criteria for reimbursement of DXA measurement. In the Swiss environment, RA is a valid case finding tool for patients with risk factors for osteoporosis, especially for those who do not qualify for DXA reimbursement.

Detection of complex point targets with distributed assets in a MIMO radar system

The report explores the problem of detecting complex point target models in a MIMO radar system. A complex point target is a mathematical and statistical model for a radar target that is not resolved in space, but exhibits varying complex reflectivity across the different bistatic view angles. The complex reflectivity can be modeled as a complex stochastic process whose index set is the set of all the bistatic view angles, and the parameters of the stochastic process follow from an analysis of a target model comprising a number of ideal point scatterers randomly located within some radius of the targets center of mass. The proposed complex point targets may be applicable to statistical inference in multistatic or MIMO radar system. Six different target models are summarized here – three 2-dimensional (Gaussian, Uniform Square, and Uniform Circle) and three 3-dimensional (Gaussian, Uniform Cube, and Uniform Sphere). They are assumed to have different distributions on the location of the point scatterers within the target. We develop data models for the received signals from such targets in the MIMO radar system with distributed assets and partially correlated signals, and consider the resulting detection problem which reduces to the familiar Gauss-Gauss detection problem. We illustrate that the target parameter and transmit signal have an influence on the detector performance through target extent and the SNR respectively. A series of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves are generated to notice the impact on the detector for varying SNR. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence is applied to obtain the approximate mean difference between density functions the scatterers assume inside the target models to show the change in the performance of the detector with target extent of the point scatterers.