981 resultados para RISK MAPPING


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Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is the deliberate, self-inflicted destruction of body tissue without suicidal intent and an important clinical phenomenon. Rates of NSSI appear to be disproportionately high in adolescents and young adults, and is a risk factor for suicidal ideation and behavior. The present study reports the psychometric properties of the Impulse, Self-harm and Suicide Ideation Questionnaire for Adolescents (ISSIQ-A), a measure designed to comprehensively assess the impulsivity, NSSI behaviors and suicide ideation. An additional module of this questionnaire assesses the functions of NSSI. Results of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) of the scale on 1722 youths showed items' suitability and confirmed a model of four different dimensions (Impulse, Self-harm, Risk-behavior and Suicide ideation) with good fit and validity. Further analysis showed that youth׳s engagement in self-harm may exert two different functions: to create or alleviate emotional states, and to influence social relationships. Our findings contribute to research and assessment on non-suicidal self-injury, suggesting that the ISSIQ-A is a valid and reliable measure to assess impulse, self-harm and suicidal thoughts, in adolescence.

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STUDY OBJECTIVE: Prior research has identified five common genetic variants associated with narcolepsy with cataplexy in Caucasian patients. To replicate and/or extend these findings, we have tested HLA-DQB1, the previously identified 5 variants, and 10 other potential variants in a large European sample of narcolepsy with cataplexy subjects. DESIGN: Retrospective case-control study. SETTING: A recent study showed that over 76% of significant genome-wide association variants lie within DNase I hypersensitive sites (DHSs). From our previous GWAS, we identified 30 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with P < 10(-4) mapping to DHSs. Ten SNPs tagging these sites, HLADQB1, and all previously reported SNPs significantly associated with narcolepsy were tested for replication. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: For GWAS, 1,261 narcolepsy patients and 1,422 HLA-DQB1*06:02-matched controls were included. For HLA study, 1,218 patients and 3,541 controls were included. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: None of the top variants within DHSs were replicated. Out of the five previously reported SNPs, only rs2858884 within the HLA region (P < 2x10(-9)) and rs1154155 within the TRA locus (P < 2x10(-8)) replicated. DQB1 typing confirmed that DQB1*06:02 confers an extraordinary risk (odds ratio 251). Four protective alleles (DQB1*06:03, odds ratio 0.17, DQB1*05:01, odds ratio 0.56, DQB1*06:09 odds ratio 0.21, DQB1*02 odds ratio 0.76) were also identified. CONCLUSION: An overwhelming portion of genetic risk for narcolepsy with cataplexy is found at DQB1 locus. Since DQB1*06:02 positive subjects are at 251-fold increase in risk for narcolepsy, and all recent cases of narcolepsy after H1N1 vaccination are positive for this allele, DQB1 genotyping may be relevant to public health policy.

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We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

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Very high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar sensors represent an alternative to aerial photography for delineating floods in built-up environments where flood risk is highest. However, even with currently available SAR image resolutions of 3 m and higher, signal returns from man-made structures hamper the accurate mapping of flooded areas. Enhanced image processing algorithms and a better exploitation of image archives are required to facilitate the use of microwave remote sensing data for monitoring flood dynamics in urban areas. In this study a hybrid methodology combining radiometric thresholding, region growing and change detection is introduced as an approach enabling the automated, objective and reliable flood extent extraction from very high-resolution urban SAR images. The method is based on the calibration of a statistical distribution of “open water” backscatter values inferred from SAR images of floods. SAR images acquired during dry conditions enable the identification of areas i) that are not “visible” to the sensor (i.e. regions affected by ‘layover’ and ‘shadow’) and ii) that systematically behave as specular reflectors (e.g. smooth tarmac, permanent water bodies). Change detection with respect to a pre- or post flood reference image thereby reduces over-detection of inundated areas. A case study of the July 2007 Severn River flood (UK) observed by the very high-resolution SAR sensor on board TerraSAR-X as well as airborne photography highlights advantages and limitations of the proposed method. We conclude that even though the fully automated SAR-based flood mapping technique overcomes some limitations of previous methods, further technological and methodological improvements are necessary for SAR-based flood detection in urban areas to match the flood mapping capability of high quality aerial photography.

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Since 1999, the National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO) in Mexico has been developing and managing the “Operational program for the detection of hot-spots using remote sensing techniques”. This program uses images from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR), which are operationally received through the Direct Readout station (DR) at CONABIO. This allows the near-real time monitoring of fire events in Mexico and Central America. In addition to the detection of active fires, the location of hot spots are classified with respect to vegetation types, accessibility, and risk to Nature Protection Areas (NPA). Besides the fast detection of fires, further analysis is necessary due to the considerable effects of forest fires on biodiversity and human life. This fire impact assessment is crucial to support the needs of resource managers and policy makers for adequate fire recovery and restoration actions. CONABIO attempts to meet these requirements, providing post-fire assessment products as part of the management system in particular for satellite-based burnt area mapping. This paper provides an overview of the main components of the operational system and will present an outlook to future activities and system improvements, especially the development of a burnt area product. A special focus will also be placed on the fire occurrence within NPAs of Mexico

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An aim of government and the international community is to respond to global processes and crises through a range of policy and practical approaches that help limit damage from shocks and stresses. Three approaches to vulnerability reduction that have become particularly prominent in recent years are social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Although these approaches have much in common, they have developed separately over the last two decades. However, given the increasingly complex and interlinked array of risks that poor and vulnerable people face, it is likely that they will not be sufficient in the long run if they continue to be applied in isolation from one another. In recognition of this challenge, the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has been developed. ASP refers to a series of measures which aims to build resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people to climate change by combining elements of SP, DRR and CCA in programmes and projects. The aim of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of the ways in which these elements are being brought together in development policy and practice. It does this by conducting a meta-analysis of 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in south Asia. These are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The findings show that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA is relatively limited in south Asia, although there has been significant progress in combining SP and DRR in the last ten years. Projects that combine elements of SP, DRR and CCA tend to emphasise broad poverty and vulnerability reduction goals relative to those that do not. Such approaches can provide valuable lessons and insights for the promotion of climate resilient livelihoods amongst policymakers and practitioners.

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This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

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Background: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease associated with poor areas of urban settings of developing countries and early diagnosis and prompt treatment may prevent disease. Although rodents are reportedly considered the main reservoirs of leptospirosis, dogs may develop the disease, may become asymptomatic carriers and may be used as sentinels for disease epidemiology. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with spatial analysis techniques allows the mapping of the disease and the identification and assessment of health risk factors. Besides the use of GIS and spatial analysis, the technique of data mining, decision tree, can provide a great potential to find a pattern in the behavior of the variables that determine the occurrence of leptospirosis. The objective of the present study was to apply Geographical Information Systems and data prospection (decision tree) to evaluate the risk factors for canine leptospirosis in an area of Curitiba, PR.Materials, Methods & Results: The present study was performed on the Vila Pantanal, a urban poor community in the city of Curitiba. A total of 287 dog blood samples were randomly obtained house-by-house in a two-day sampling on January 2010. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to owners at the time of sampling. Geographical coordinates related to each household of tested dog were obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) for mapping the spatial distribution of reagent and non-reagent dogs to leptospirosis. For the decision tree, risk factors included results of microagglutination test (MAT) from the serum of dogs, previous disease on the household, contact with rats or other dogs, dog breed, outdoors access, feeding, trash around house or backyard, open sewer proximity and flooding. A total of 189 samples (about 2/3 of overall samples) were randomly selected for the training file and consequent decision rules. The remained 98 samples were used for the testing file. The seroprevalence showed a pattern of spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area, without agglomeration of reagent animals. In relation to data mining, from 189 samples used in decision tree, a total of 165 (87.3%) animal samples were correctly classified, generating a Kappa index of 0.413. A total of 154 out of 159 (96.8%) samples were considered non-reagent and were correctly classified and only 5/159 (3.2%) were wrongly identified. on the other hand, only 11 (36.7%) reagent samples were correctly classified, with 19 (63.3%) samples failing diagnosis.Discussion: The spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area showed that all the animals in the area are at risk of contamination by Leptospira spp. Although most samples had been classified correctly by the decision tree, a degree of difficulty of separability related to seropositive animals was observed, with only 36.7% of the samples classified correctly. This can occur due to the fact of seronegative animals number is superior to the number of seropositive ones, taking the differences in the pattern of variable behavior. The data mining helped to evaluate the most important risk factors for leptospirosis in an urban poor community of Curitiba. The variables selected by decision tree reflected the important factors about the existence of the disease (default of sewer, presence of rats and rubbish and dogs with free access to street). The analyses showed the multifactorial character of the epidemiology of canine leptospirosis.

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Spatial analysis and fuzzy classification techniques were used to estimate the spatial distributions of heavy metals in soil. The work was applied to soils in a coastal region that is characterized by intense urban occupation and large numbers of different industries. Concentrations of heavy metals were determined using geostatistical techniques and classes of risk were defined using fuzzy classification. The resulting prediction mappings identify the locations of high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cu in topsoils of the study area. The maps show that areas of high pollution of Ni and Cu are located at the northeast, where there is a predominance of industrial and agricultural activities; Pb and Zn also occur in high concentrations in the northeast, but the maps also show significant concentrations of Pb and Zn in other areas, mainly in the central and southeastern parts, where there are urban leisure activities and trade centers. Maps were also prepared showing levels of pollution risk. These maps show that (1) Cu presents a large pollution risk in the north-northwest, midwest, and southeast sectors, (2) Pb represents a moderate risk in most areas, (3) Zn generally exhibits low risk, and (4) Ni represents either low risk or no risk in the studied area. This study shows that combining geostatistics with fuzzy theory can provide results that offer insight into risk assessment for environmental pollution.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The rapid industrial development and disorganized population growth in huge cities bring about various urban problems due to intense use of physical space on and below the surface. Subsurface problems in metropolitan areas are caused by subway line construction, which often follows the routes of utility networks, such as electric and telephone cables, water and gas pipes, storm sewers, etc. Usually, the main problems are related to damage or destruction of preexisting utilities, often putting human lives at risk. With the purpose of minimizing risks. GPR-profiling with 200 MHz antennae was done at two sites, both located in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil. The objectives of this work were to map utilities or existing infrastructure in the subsurface in order to orient the construction of the Line 4 (yellow) subway tunnel in Sao Paulo. GPR profiles can detect water pipes, utility networks in the subsurface, and concrete foundation columns or pilings in subsoil up to 2 m depth. In addition. the GPR profiles also provided details of the target shapes in the subsurface. GPR interpretations combined with lithological information from boreholes and trenches opened in the study areas were extremely important in mapping of the correct spatial distribution of buried utilities at these two sites in Sao Paulo. This information improves and updates maps of utility placement, serves as a basis for planning of the geotechnical excavation of the Line 4 (yellow) subway tunnel in Sao Paulo, helps minimize problems related to destruction of preexisting utilities in the subsoil, and avoids risk of dangerous accidents. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Traceability is a concept that arose from the need for monitoring of production processes, this concept is usually used in sectors related to food production or activities involving some kind of direct risk to people. Agribusiness in the cotton industry does not have a comprehensive infrastructure for all stages of the processes involved in production. Map and define the data to enable traceability of products is synonymous to delegate responsibilities for all involved in the production, the collection of aggregate data on cotton production is done in stages and specific pre-defined since the choice of the variety through the processing, the scope of this article specifically addresses the production of lint cotton. The paper presents a proposal based on service oriented architecture (SOA) for data integration processes in the cotton industry, this proposal provide support for the implementation of platform independent solutions.

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The heart is a wonderful but complex organ: it uses electrochemical mechanisms in order to produce mechanical energy to pump the blood throughout the body and allow the life of humans and animals. This organ can be subject to several diseases and sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most catastrophic manifestation of these diseases, responsible for the death of a large number of people throughout the world. It is estimated that 325000 Americans annually die for SCD. SCD most commonly occurs as a result of reentrant tachyarrhythmias (ventricular tachycardia (VT) and ventricular fibrillation (VF)) and the identification of those patients at higher risk for the development of SCD has been a difficult clinical challenge. Nowadays, a particular electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormality, “T-wave alternans” (TWA), is considered a precursor of lethal cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death, a sensitive indicator of risk for SCD. TWA is defined as a beat-to-beat alternation in the shape, amplitude, or timing of the T-wave on the ECG, indicative of the underlying repolarization of cardiac cells [5]. In other words TWA is the macroscopic effect of subcellular and celluar mechanisms involving ionic kinetics and the consequent depolarization and repolarization of the myocytes. Experimental activities have shown that TWA on the ECG is a manifestation of an underlying alternation of long and short action potential durations (APDs), the so called APD-alternans, of cardiac myocytes in the myocardium. Understanding the mechanism of APDs-alternans is the first step for preventing them to occur. In order to investigate these mechanisms it’s very important to understand that the biological systems are complex systems and their macroscopic properties arise from the nonlinear interactions among the parts. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts, and it cannot be understood only by studying the single parts. In this sense the heart is a complex nonlinear system and its way of working follows nonlinear dynamics; alternans also, they are a manifestation of a phenomenon typical in nonlinear dynamical systems, called “period-dubling bifurcation”. Over the past decade, it has been demonstrated that electrical alternans in cardiac tissue is an important marker for the development of ventricular fibrillation and a significant predictor for mortality. It has been observed that acute exposure to low concentration of calcium does not decrease the magnitude of alternans and sustained ventricular Fibrillation (VF) is still easily induced under these condition. However with prolonged exposure to low concentration of calcium, alternans disappears, but VF is still inducible. This work is based on this observation and tries to make it clearer. The aim of this thesis is investigate the effect of hypocalcemia spatial alternans and VF doing experiments with canine hearts and perfusing them with a solution with physiological ionic concentration and with a solution with low calcium concentration (hypocalcemia); in order to investigate the so called memory effect, the experimental activity was modified during the way. The experiments were performed with the optical mapping technique, using voltage-sensitive dye, and a custom made Java code was used in post-processing. Finding the Nolasco and Dahlen’s criterion [8] inadequate for the prediction of alternans, and takin into account the experimental results, another criterion, which consider the memory effect, has been implemented. The implementation of this criterion could be the first step in the creation of a method, AP-based, discriminating who is at risk if developing VF. This work is divided into four chapters: the first is a brief presentation of the physiology of the heart; the second is a review of the major theories and discovers in the study of cardiac dynamics; the third chapter presents an overview on the experimental activity and the optical mapping technique; the forth chapter contains the presentation of the results and the conclusions.

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Geochemical mapping is a valuable tool for the control of territory that can be used not only in the identification of mineral resources and geological, agricultural and forestry studies but also in the monitoring of natural resources by giving solutions to environmental and economic problems. Stream sediments are widely used in the sampling campaigns carried out by the world's governments and research groups for their characteristics of broad representativeness of rocks and soils, for ease of sampling and for the possibility to conduct very detailed sampling In this context, the environmental role of stream sediments provides a good basis for the implementation of environmental management measures, in fact the composition of river sediments is an important factor in understanding the complex dynamics that develop within catchment basins therefore they represent a critical environmental compartment: they can persistently incorporate pollutants after a process of contamination and release into the biosphere if the environmental conditions change. It is essential to determine whether the concentrations of certain elements, in particular heavy metals, can be the result of natural erosion of rocks containing high concentrations of specific elements or are generated as residues of human activities related to a certain study area. This PhD thesis aims to extract from an extensive database on stream sediments of the Romagna rivers the widest spectrum of informations. The study involved low and high order stream in the mountain and hilly area, but also the sediments of the floodplain area, where intensive agriculture is active. The geochemical signals recorded by the stream sediments will be interpreted in order to reconstruct the natural variability related to bedrock and soil contribution, the effects of the river dynamics, the anomalous sites, and with the calculation of background values be able to evaluate their level of degradation and predict the environmental risk.