Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis). Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the North Pacific area into the coupled system drastically changes the Arctic climate variability to a point where the Arctic Oscillation becomes an ‘internal mode’ of variability and correlations of year-to-year variability with observational data vanish. In line with previous studies, our simulations provide evidence that Arctic sea ice export is mainly due to ‘internal variability’ within the Arctic region. We conclude that the choice of model domains should be based on physical knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic processes and not on ‘geographic’ reasons. This is particularly the case for areas like the Arctic, which has very complex feedbacks between components of the regional climate system.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former’s climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission ‘hotspots’: areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently observed, including the flushing storm sources of Chryse and Utopia, and southern midlatitude areas from which larger storms tend to initiate, such as Hellas and Solis Planum. The seasonal cycle of emission, which includes a double-peaked structure in northern autumn and winter, also appears realistic. Significant increases to lifting rates are produced for any sensible choices of parameters controlling the sub-grid distributions used, but results are sensitive to the smallest scale of variability considered, which high-resolution modelling suggests should be O(1 km) or less. Use of such models in future will permit the use of a diagnosed (rather than prescribed) variable gustiness intensity, which should further enhance dust lifting in the southern hemisphere in particular.

Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

Upper-mantle seismic structure beneath SE and Central Brazil from P- and S-wave regional traveltime tomography

We present models for the upper-mantle velocity structure beneath SE and Central Brazil using independent tomographic inversions of P- and S-wave relative arrival-time residuals (including core phases) from teleseismic earthquakes. The events were recorded by a total of 92 stations deployed through different projects, institutions and time periods during the years 1992-2004. Our results show correlations with the main tectonic structures and reveal new anomalies not yet observed in previous works. All interpretations are based on robust anomalies, which appear in the different inversions for P-and S-waves. The resolution is variable through our study volume and has been analyzed through different theoretical test inversions. High-velocity anomalies are observed in the western portion of the Sao Francisco Craton, supporting the hypothesis that this Craton was part of a major Neoproterozoic plate (San Franciscan Plate). Low-velocity anomalies beneath the Tocantins Province (mainly fold belts between the Amazon and Sao Francisco Cratons) are interpreted as due to lithospheric thinning, which is consistent with the good correlation between intraplate seismicity and low-velocity anomalies in this region. Our results show that the basement of the Parana Basin is formed by several blocks, separated by suture zones, according to model of Milani & Ramos. The slab of the Nazca Plate can be observed as a high-velocity anomaly beneath the Parana Basin, between the depths of 700 and 1200 km. Further, we confirm the low-velocity anomaly in the NE area of the Parana Basin which has been interpreted by VanDecar et al. as a fossil conduct of the Tristan da Cunha Plume related to the Parana flood basalt eruptions during the opening of the South Atlantic.

The Potential Of Kohonen Method For Classifying Rivers Focused On Regional Environmental Flow Determination With ELOHA

This article highlights the potential benefits that the Kohonen method has for the classification of rivers with similar characteristics by determining regional ecological flows using the ELOHA (Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration) methodology. Currently, there are many methodologies for the classification of rivers, however none of them include the characteristics found in Kohonen method such as (i) providing the number of groups that actually underlie the information presented, (ii) used to make variable importance analysis, (iii) which in any case can display two-dimensional classification process, and (iv) that regardless of the parameters used in the model the clustering structure remains. In order to evaluate the potential benefits of the Kohonen method, 174 flow stations distributed along the great river basin “Magdalena-Cauca” (Colombia) were analyzed. 73 variables were obtained for the classification process in each case. Six trials were done using different combinations of variables and the results were validated against reference classification obtained by Ingfocol in 2010, whose results were also framed using ELOHA guidelines. In the process of validation it was found that two of the tested models reproduced a level higher than 80% of the reference classification with the first trial, meaning that more than 80% of the flow stations analyzed in both models formed invariant groups of streams.

Diagnóstico regional do processo de queijo coalho comercializado em Natal/RN

Coalho cheese is a typical product of the Northeastern Brazil, which is consumed both raw and cooked. The present work aimed to study the characteristics of artisanal and industrial processes in the production of coalho cheese sold in Natal / RN in order to evaluate its quality and consumer s profile. Four artisanal cheeses plants were monitored and a questionnaire was sent to different cheese industries. Besides this, eight cheese samples (four artisanal and four industrial) were evaluated in regard to the microbiological quality, physical-chemical and sensory attributes. The sensory acceptance was evaluated by using 108 non-trained panelists by using the hedonic scale. The consumer s profile survey was applied to 400 consumers of coalho cheese. The lack of hygiene control was detected at the artisanal cheese production, which uses raw milk as its raw material. Research has shown that the industrialized cheeses are made from pasteurized milk provided by their own production or by a third party, as observed in cheese making dairies. In general, the results indicate variation in the manufacturing process of coalho cheese, which results in the lack of product standardization. Regarding the physical-chemical analysis, most artisanal and industrial samples presented moisture content between 36 and 40 %, classified as medium moisture cheese, which is the only parameter that showed no significant difference (p>0.05). However, the water activity (Aw), pH and acidity results differed significantly. All artisanal samples showed coliform contamination at 35 °C, which confirms the poor hygienic conditions. In regard to coliforms at 45 °C, 75 % of artisanal coalho cheese samples had value higher than 103 MPN / g, a value above the lawful limits determined by RDC nº 12. Fifty percent of industrial coalho cheese samples showed coagulase-positive Staphylococcus values above the limit allowed by the RDC nº 12, indicating poor handling. The sensory evaluation revealed that the taste was the only parameter that showed significant difference, and this difference was only between two industrial brands. The consumer s survey showed that the coalho cheese flavor is the most important reason for buying this kind of cheese. Although coalho cheese is mainly bought in supermarkets, open street markets and country shops are still important selling points. It is concluded that there is no coalho cheese standardization in the RN state, which leads to variations in physical-chemical and sensory attributes. Moreover, it is necessary greater hygiene control in the production and handling procedures of coalho cheese.

The Impact of Domestic Politics and International Changes on the Brazilian Perception of Regional Integration

This article aims to analyze the impact of domestic politics and international changes that influence Brazilian positions regarding regional integration processes in South America, particularly the Southern Common Market, Mercosur. The dynamics of the international system and their impact on the evolution of the elite's perception of the role the country should play in the world are important variables for understanding these positions. The state's postures in relation to integration were and are based on a real interest, but this interest is also linked with the objective of ensuring better conditions for participation in other international arenas. Starting with the hypothesis that transformations in the international setting have strongly influenced Brazil's positioning, the elements of continuity and change in the country's behavior toward Mercosur are identified, with domestic politics as the main explanation.

The United Nations Regional Commissions: Enhancing Capacities To Eradicate Violence Against Women

This study captures the significant regional and national knowledge that has been accumulated on measuring violence against women through the interregional project "Enhancing capacities to eradicate violence against women through networking of local knowledge communities". Supported by the United Nations Development Account, this two-year project was coordinated by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), through its Division for Gender Affairs, and implemented by the five regional commissions of the United Nations, in cooperation with the United Nations Statistical Division and UN-Women. Through the project, more than 30 countries worldwide have been engaged in the development, dissemination and testing of core indicators endorsed by the United Nations Statistical Commission. This process has made a decisive contribution to designing and building consensus around a common methodology to measure and document violence against women. Furthermore, the inclusion of all five regions in piloting the newly-developed tools to measure violence has also ensured that these tools capture a more comprehensive and complex vision of violence as experienced by women across cultures and regions. This report presents an overview of the activities that have taken place in the five regions, and outlines the key outcomes and lessons learned. Through its activities, the interregional project has made the cumulative body of existing knowledge in terms of policies, findings, innovative practices, processes and statistical data available to policymakers, activists and women's organizations. New knowledge was also produced through national studies that examined underexplored sources of data on violence against women. National capacities to collect information on violence against women through official statistics were strengthened through targeted training activities as well as through participation in expert meetings which provided the space for an effective exchange of best practices.

Proposed regional agenda on population and development for Latin America and the Caribbean beyond 2014

The document revisits, broadens and updates the discussions contained in ECLAC documents Input for the preparation of a regional agenda for the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development: towards 2014 and beyond (LC/L.3219(CEP.2010/4)), of 2010, and Reflections on the population and development agenda for Latin America and the Caribbean beyond 2014 (LC/L.3481(CEP.2/5)), of 2012..

A grande colisão pré-cambriana do sudeste brasileiro e a estruturação regional

This paper presents a review on the geotectonic framework of the Southeastern Brazil and neighborhoods, and its importance in the regional geologic evolution, which was exposed as a main conference at the XI Symposium of Southeast Geology (São Pedro, SP, 2009). Although the geologic history dates back to the Archean, and Paleo to Mesoproterozoic processes related to the evolution of the Columbia and Rodinia supercontinents occurred, it was in the Neoproterozoic that the most important structural features developed due to collisional tectonics. The collisions began in the Brasiliano I (900-700 Ma), but mainly developed during the Brasiliano II (670-530 Ma) and ended in the Brasiliano III (580-490 Ma), resulting the orogenic systems of Mantiqueira and Tocantins. The final consolidation resulted in Gondwana, around 460 My in the part which correspond to the South America Platform. The structural features represent an important heritage that controlled much the Phanerozic geologic and tectonic processes: the formation of the Paraná Basin in the Ordovician-Jurassic, the South Atlantian reactivation (active magmatism and Paraná LIP, rifting, morphogenesis and the Atlantic opening), and the Neogene-Quaternary intraplate discrete neotectonism.

Regional Panorama: Latin America. Megacities and sustainability

Includes bibliography

An Educational international partnership responding to local needs: Process evaluation of the Brazil FAIMER Regional Institute

The Brazilian public health system requires competent professionals sensitive to the needs of the population. The Foundation for Advancement of International Medical Education and Research (FAIMER) provides a two-year faculty development programme for health professions educators, aiming to build leadership in education to improve health. A partnership with governmental initiatives and FAIMER was established for meeting these needs. This paper describes the initial process evaluation results of the Brazilian FAIMER Institute Fellowship (FAIMER BR). Methods: Data were analysed for the classes 2007-2010 regarding: application processes; innovation project themes; retrospective post-pre self-ratings of knowledge acquisition; and professional development portfolios. Results: Seventeen of 26 Brazilian states were represented among 98 Fellows, predominantly from public medical schools (75.5%) and schools awarded Ministry of Health grants to align education with public health services (89.8%). One-third (n = 32) of Fellows' innovation projects were related to these grants. Significant increases occurred in all topic subscales on self-report of knowledge acquisition (eff ect sizes, 1.21-2.77). In the follow up questionnaire, 63% of Fellows reported that their projects were incorporated into the curriculum or institutional policies. The majority reported that the programme deepened their knowledge (98%), provided new ideas about medical education (90%) and provided skills for conflict management (63%). One-half of the Fellows reported sustained benefits from the programme listserv and other communications, including breadth of expertise, establishment of research collaboration and receiving emotional support. Conclusion: Contributors to initial programme success included alignment of curriculum with governmental initiatives, curriculum design merging educational technology, leadership and management skills and central role of an innovation educational project responding to local needs.

Local and regional ecological drivers of fish assemblages in Brazilian estuaries

Spatial patterns in assemblage structures are generated by ecological processes that occur on multiple scales. Identifying these processes is important for the prediction of impact, for restoration and for conservation of biodiversity. This study used a hierarchical sampling design to quantify variations in assemblage structures of Brazilian estuarine fish across 2 spatial scales and to reveal the ecological processes underlying the patterns observed. Eight areas separated by 0.7 to 25 km (local scale) were sampled in 5 estuaries separated by 970 to 6000 km (regional scale) along the coast, encompassing both tropical and subtropical regions. The assemblage structure varied significantly in terms of relative biomass and presence/absence of species on both scales, but the regional variation was greater than the local variation for either dataset. However, the 5 estuaries sampled segregated into 2 major groups largely congruent with the Brazilian and Argentinian biogeographic provinces. Three environmental variables (mean temperature of the coldest month, mangrove area and mean annual precipitation) and distance between estuaries explained 44.8 and 16.3%, respectively, of the regional-scale variability in the species relative biomass. At the local scale, the importance of environmental predictors for the spatial structure of the assemblages differed between estuarine systems. Overall, these results support the idea that on a regional scale, the composition of fish assemblages is simultaneously determined by environmental filters and species dispersal capacity, while on a local scale, the effect of environmental factors should vary depending on estuary-specific physical and hydrological characteristics © 2013 Inter-Research.

Avaliação do efeito trombogênico da perfusão regional intravenosa com gentamicina em equinos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)