Essays in Personal Transportation Demand and Consumer Finance

This dissertation is composed of three essays covering two areas of interest. The first topic is personal transportation demand with a focus on price and fuel efficiency elasticities of mileage demand, challenging assumptions common in the rebound effect literature. The second topic is consumer finance with a focus on small loans. The first chapter creates separate variables for fuel prices during periods of increasing and decreasing prices as well as an observed fuel economy measure to empirically test the equivalence of these elasticities. Using a panel from Germany from 1997 to 2009 I find a fuel economy elasticity of mileage of 53.3%, which is significantly different from the gas price elasticity of mileage during periods of decreasing gas prices, 4.8%. I reject the null hypothesis or price symmetry, with the elasticity of mileage during period of increasing gas prices ranging from 26.2% and 28.9%. The second chapter explores the potential for the rebound effect to vary with income. Panel data from U.S. households from 1997 to 2003 is used to estimate the rebound effect in a median regression. The estimated rebound effect independent of income ranges from 17.8% to 23.6%. An interaction of income and fuel economy is negative and significant, indicating that the rebound effect may be much higher for low income individuals and decreases with income; the rebound effect for low income households ranged from 80.3% to 105.0%, indicating that such households may increase gasoline consumption given an improvement in fuel economy. The final chapter documents the costs of credit instruments found in major mail order catalogs throughout the 20th century. This study constructs a new dataset and finds that the cost of credit increased and became stickier as mail order retailers switched from an installment-style closed-end loan to a revolving-style credit card. This study argues that revolving credit's ability to decrease salience of credit costs in the price of goods is the best explanation for rate stickiness in the mail order industry as well as for the preference of revolving credit among retailers.

Gen green 4 Australia: a national study of demand for and supply of skills for sustainability

In this research, skills for sustainability are broadly conceived as including skills for social, economic and environmental sustainability – a triple bottom-line approach. Since 2009 Australian governments have been implementing an agreement that embeds skills for sustainability into vocational education and training, despite scant information about the actual levels of demand for, and supply of these skills. This study provides evidence on the actual depth and breadth of the take-up of these skills within Australian training organisations and workplaces. The demand studied in this research is that expressed by the primary consumers of Australian Vocational Education and Training (VET) services, students who engage in VET studies, this is known in the literature as social demand for education. VET students and teachers responded to two survey instruments that explored the sustainability values, behaviours, learning and teaching of Australian apprentices, trainees and their teachers. The results of this study show ‘a social demand’ for skills for sustainability. In summary, the results show that: •Apprentices, trainees and their teachers cared a great deal about social, economic and environmental sustainability; •Supply was closely aligned to social demand for skills for sustainability so that demand for skills for sustainability from VET students was almost entirely met; •There are important differences in the teaching, learning and utilisation of skills for sustainability that are related to gender and age; and •In-class learning of environmental skills has increased over time and now slightly outweighs learning of these skills at work, however community learning of these skills outweighs both. The findings suggest that: •Further action is required to embed green skills into the VET system, especially in the areas of energy efficiency and supply chains; •The VET system plays an important role in supporting community cohesion and economic literacy, especially for women; •It is important that social sustainability is properly considered in analysis informing VET policy; and •Gender differences in values and behaviours and gender and age differences in learning skills for sustainability have important implications for the design of future skills for sustainability programs. VET students and their teachers have unique insights into the supply of and demand for skills for sustainability, and this viewpoint can contribute, now and in the future, to the further development of skills for sustainability in Australia.

Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Asymmetric response of demand-supply mismatch to investor's sentiment

We look through both the demand and supply side information to understand dynamics of price determination in the real estate market and examine how accurately investors’ attitudes predict the market returns and thereby flagging off extent of any demand-supply mismatch. Our hypothesis is based on the possibility that investors’ call for action in terms of their buy/sell decision and adjustment in reservation/offer prices may indicate impending demand-supply imbalances in the market. In the process, we study several real estate sectors to inform our analysis. The timeframe of our analysis (1995-2010) allows us to observe market dynamics over several economic cycles and in various stages of those cycles. Additionally, we also seek to understand how investors’ attitude or the sentiment affects the market activity over the cycles through asymmetric responses. We test our hypothesis variously using a number of measures of market activity and attitude indicators within several model specifications. The empirical models are estimated using Vector Error Correction framework. Our analysis suggests that investors’ attitude exert strong and statistically significant feedback effects in price determination. Moreover, these effects do reveal heterogeneous responses across the real estate sectors. Interestingly, our results indicate the asymmetric responses during boom, normal and recessionary periods. These results are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings.

Analysing the transmission pattern within the framework of housing supply and monetary policy in Australia

Housing supply is one of important components of the housing sector. Compared with an increasingly strong housing demand, the growth rates of total housing stock in Australia have exhibited a downward trend since the end of the 1990s whilst the significant adjustments in the Australian monetary policy were being implemented. This research aims to estimate the nature of the relationship between housing supply and monetary policy by a vector error correction model. According to the empirical results, a transmission pattern comprised of the indicators associated with housing supply and monetary policy can be identified, which suggests that there is a significant interrelationship between monetary policy and the supply side of the housing sector in Australia.

New housing supply and residential construction costs in Australia : a panel ECM approach

The supply of new housing in Australia has been experiencing a low increase rate since the 1990s in conjunction with an increasingly strong housing demand. On the contrary, residential construction costs across Australia?s states maintained dramatic increases simultaneously. Economic theory suggests that new housing supply is correlated to the costs of residential constructions. However, few empirical studies have focused on examining this relationship for Australian housing markets. To comprehensively investigate the relationship between the supply of new housing and residential construction costs a function for new housing supply considering the effects of regional heterogeneities is introduced in this study. By estimating a panel error correction model (ECM) applicable for quantifying the correlation with regional heterogeneities, this research identifies that a causal link and a strong correlation exist in between new housing supply and residential construction costs in Australia.

Drought and desalination: Melbourne water supply and development choices in the twenty-first century

Sharply reduced catchment inflows across Australia around the end of the twentieth century led to a sequence of water restrictions followed, as the drought persisted, by approximately $10 billion of investments in desalination plants near Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. This Deakin University project jointly with Griffith University, for the National Centre of Excellence in Desalination (NCEDA), follows these new investments. We ask how best to manage bulk water supply and retail supply given the facts and fears of uncertain rainfall, modelled over a 100 year simulation period. We use Monte Carlo style studies aiming to capture the new tensions and trade-offs regarding uncertain climate, rainfall and water supply. There are presently no comprehensive life-cycle approaches to model city water balances that incorporate economic feedbacks, such as tariff adjustment, which can in turn create a financing capacity for such investment responses to low catchment levels, models that could provide significant policy implications for water planners. This project addresses the gap, and presents excerpts from a system dynamics model that augments the usual water utility representation of the physical linkages and water grids. We add inter-connected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity. Tariffs are reset in association with drought and the modelling of responses both in terms of reduced consumption and increased revenue to the utility, depending on the elasticities of demand responses to higher tariffs, both short and long term, while also allowing effects from any transitional restrictions. Before reporting on parts of the simulations applied to Melbourne, this paper will first review the general issues surrounding whether desalination is or can be a “game changer” for economic development that hinges on secure water supply. We then explore options in bulk water supply management when desalination augments the choices, including catchments, dams, recycling, pipelines from rivers and savings in irrigation. Finally, the paper addresses the intriguing and important question of the value and cost of providing water for environmental uses.

Effect of fish density during transportation on stress and mortality of juvenile Tambaqui Colossoma macropomum

The increased demand for juvenile tambaqui Colossoma macropomum for grow-out ponds and stocking programs in the Amazon state of Brazil has increased the transportation of this species. This study was designed to determine the optimum density of juvenile tambaqui during transportation in closed containers. Fish (51.9 ± 3.3 g and 14.9 ± 0.4 cm) were packed in sealed plastic bags and transported for 10 h at four densities: 78, 156, 234, and 312 kg/m3. After transportation, fish from each density were kept in separate 500-L tanks for 96 h. Mortality, 96-h cumulative mortality, water quality, and blood parameters (hematocrit, plasma cortisol, and glucose) were monitored. Fish mortality after transportation was significantly lower at densities of 78 and 156 kg/m3 than at 234 and 312 kg/m3. Cumulative mortality was significantly lower at a density of 78 kg/m3. Dissolved oxygen after 10 h of transportation remained high at a density of 78 kg/m3, but reached critically low values at all other densities. Ammonia concentration was highest at the lowest density and was lower at higher densities. Carbon dioxide concentration was lowest at the density of 78 kg/m3 but higher in the other treatments. Plasma glucose and cortisol increased significantly immediately after transportation at densities of 156, 234, and 312 kg/m3, returning to control values by 24 h. The best density for juvenile tambaqui during a 10-h transportation haul in a closed container was 78 kg/m3. At this density there was no fish mortality, water quality was kept within acceptable values, and fish were not stressed.

GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

Primary care physician supply and other key determinants of health care utilisation: The case of Switzerland

Background The Swiss government decided to freeze new accreditations for physicians in private practice in Switzerland based on the assumption that demand-induced health care spending may be cut by limiting care offers. This legislation initiated an ongoing controversial public debate in Switzerland. The aim of this study is therefore the determination of socio-demographic and health system-related factors of per capita consultation rates with primary care physicians in the multicultural population of Switzerland. Methods The data were derived from the complete claims data of Swiss health insurers for 2004 and included 21.4 million consultations provided by 6564 Swiss primary care physicians on a fee-for-service basis. Socio-demographic data were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Utilisation-based health service areas were created and were used as observational units for statistical procedures. Multivariate and hierarchical models were applied to analyze the data. Results Models within the study allowed the definition of 1018 primary care service areas with a median population of 3754 and an average per capita consultation rate of 2.95 per year. Statistical models yielded significant effects for various geographical, socio-demographic and cultural factors. The regional density of physicians in independent practice was also significantly associated with annual consultation rates and indicated an associated increase 0.10 for each additional primary care physician in a population of 10,000 inhabitants. Considerable differences across Swiss language regions were observed with reference to the supply of ambulatory health resources provided either by primary care physicians, specialists, or hospital-based ambulatory care. Conclusion The study documents a large small-area variation in utilisation and provision of health care resources in Switzerland. Effects of physician density appeared to be strongly related to Swiss language regions and may be rooted in the different cultural backgrounds of the served populations.

Transportation services, utilization and needs of the elderly in non-urban areas: patterns in two Kentucky communities. Final report.

Federal Transit Administration, Washington, D.C.

Occupational employment in transportation, communications, utilities, and trade.

"December 1984."

The impact of supply chain performance measurement systems on dynamic behaviour in supply chains

The amplification of demand variation up a supply chain widely termed ‘the Bullwhip Effect’ is disruptive, costly and something that supply chain management generally seeks to minimise. Originally attributed to poor system design; deficiencies in policies, organisation structure and delays in material and information flow all lead to sub-optimal reorder point calculation. It has since been attributed to exogenous random factors such as: uncertainties in demand, supply and distribution lead time but these causes are not exclusive as academic and operational studies since have shown that orders and/or inventories can exhibit significant variability even if customer demand and lead time are deterministic. This increase in the range of possible causes of dynamic behaviour indicates that our understanding of the phenomenon is far from complete. One possible, yet previously unexplored, factor that may influence dynamic behaviour in supply chains is the application and operation of supply chain performance measures. Organisations monitoring and responding to their adopted key performance metrics will make operational changes and this action may influence the level of dynamics within the supply chain, possibly degrading the performance of the very system they were intended to measure. In order to explore this a plausible abstraction of the operational responses to the Supply Chain Council’s SCOR® (Supply Chain Operations Reference) model was incorporated into a classic Beer Game distribution representation, using the dynamic discrete event simulation software Simul8. During the simulation the five SCOR Supply Chain Performance Attributes: Reliability, Responsiveness, Flexibility, Cost and Utilisation were continuously monitored and compared to established targets. Operational adjustments to the; reorder point, transportation modes and production capacity (where appropriate) for three independent supply chain roles were made and the degree of dynamic behaviour in the Supply Chain measured, using the ratio of the standard deviation of upstream demand relative to the standard deviation of the downstream demand. Factors employed to build the detailed model include: variable retail demand, order transmission, transportation delays, production delays, capacity constraints demand multipliers and demand averaging periods. Five dimensions of supply chain performance were monitored independently in three autonomous supply chain roles and operational settings adjusted accordingly. Uniqueness of this research stems from the application of the five SCOR performance attributes with modelled operational responses in a dynamic discrete event simulation model. This project makes its primary contribution to knowledge by measuring the impact, on supply chain dynamics, of applying a representative performance measurement system.

Off-farm labour supply and labour markets in rapidly changing circumstances:Bulgaria during transition

This study examines off-farm labor supply in the rapidly changing conditions of Bulgaria during the 1990s. In doing so, we make use of three different waves of the Bulgarian Integrated Household Survey, each reflecting remarkably different environmental conditions. The results suggest that standard theories of off-farm labor supply provide little guidance in situations characterized by chronic excess supply in the off-farm labor market and/or rapidly changing circumstances. In particular, the results show (1) that off-farm employment throughout the transition was predominantly determined by demand rather than by supply, and (2) that the magnitude and statistical significance of the various determinants are very sensitive to changing environmental conditions. As such, the results can be extremely relevant for both theory and policy for the many countries which may still need to go through privatization and painful restructuring as a result of financial crises and globalization.