Evaluation of the effectiveness of an organization in the field of brand perception using a computer agent-based simulation system

Este proyecto de investigación busca usar un sistema de cómputo basado en modelación por agentes para medir la percepción de marca de una organización en una población heterogénea. Se espera proporcionar información que permita dar soluciones a una organización acerca del comportamiento de sus consumidores y la asociada percepción de marca. El propósito de este sistema es el de modelar el proceso de percepción-razonamiento-acción para simular un proceso de razonamiento como el resultado de una acumulación de percepciones que resultan en las acciones del consumidor. Este resultado definirá la aceptación de marca o el rechazo del consumidor hacia la empresa. Se realizó un proceso de recolección información acerca de una organización específica en el campo de marketing. Después de compilar y procesar la información obtenida de la empresa, el análisis de la percepción de marca es aplicado mediante procesos de simulación. Los resultados del experimento son emitidos a la organización mediante un informe basado en conclusiones y recomendaciones a nivel de marketing para mejorar la percepción de marca por parte de los consumidores.

The eMinerals project: developing the concept of the virtual organisation to support collaborative work on molecular-scale environmental simulations

The eMinerals project has established an integrated compute and data minigrid infrastructure together with a set of collaborative tools,. The infrastructure is designed to support molecular simulation scientists working together as a virtual organisation aiming to understand a number of strategic processes in environmental science. The eMinerals virtual organisation is now working towards applying this infrastructure to tackle a new generation of scientific problems. This paper describes the achievements of the eMinerals virtual organisation to date, and describes ongoing applications of the virtual organisation infrastructure.

Educational simulation in construction: the virtual construction simulator

Students in the architecture, engineering, and construction disciplines are often challenged with visualizing and understanding the complex spatial and temporal relationships involved in designing and constructing three-dimensional (3D) structures. An evolving body of research traces the use of educational computer simulations to enhance student learning experiences through testing real-world scenarios and the development of student decision-making skills. Ongoing research at Pennsylvania State University aims to improve engineering education in construction through interactive construction project learning applications in an immersive virtual reality environment. This paper describes the first- and second-generation development of the Virtual Construction Simulator (VCS), a tool that enables students to simultaneously create and review construction schedules through 3D model interaction. The educational value and utility of VCS was assessed through surveys, focus group interviews, and a student exercise conducted in a construction management class. Results revealed VCS is a valuable and effective four-dimensional (4D) model creation and schedule review application that fosters collaborative work and greater student task focus. This paper concludes with a discussion of the findings and the future development steps of the VCS educational simulation

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Evaluation of thermal simulation of households in the metropolitan region of So Paulo, Brazil

This paper aims at assessing the performance of a program of thermal simulation (Arquitrop) in different households in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The households were selected for the Wheezing Project which followed up children under 2 years old to monitor the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The results show that in all three study households there is a good approximation between the observed and the simulated indoor temperatures. It was also observed a fairly consistent and realistic behavior between the simulated indoor and the outdoor temperatures, describing the Arquitrop model as an efficient estimator and good representative of the thermal behavior of households in the city of Sao Paulo. The worst simulation is linked to the poorest type of construction. This may be explained by the bad quality of the construction, which the Architrop could not simulate adequately.

Numerical Simulation Of Sediment Transport And Bedmorphology Around A Hydraulic Structure On A River

Scour around hydraulic structures is a critical problem in hydraulic engineering. Under prediction of scour depth may lead to costly failures of the structure, while over prediction might result in unnecessary costs. Unfortunately, up-to-date empirical scour prediction formulas are based on laboratory experiments that are not always able to reproduce field conditions due to complicated geometry of rivers and temporal and spatial scales of a physical model. However, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools can perform using real field dimensions and operating conditions to predict sediment scour around hydraulic structures. In Korea, after completing the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project, several new weirs have been built across Han, Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsan Rivers. Consequently, sediment deposition and bed erosion around such structures have became a major issue in these four rivers. In this study, an application of an open source CFD software package, the TELEMAC-MASCARET, to simulate sediment transport and bed morphology around Gangjeong weir, which is the largest multipurpose weir built on Nakdong River. A real bathymetry of the river and a geometry of the weir have been implemented into the numerical model. The numerical simulation is carried out with a real hydrograph at the upstream boundary. The bedmorphology obtained from the numerical results has been validated against field observation data, and a maximum of simulated scour depth is compared with the results obtained by empirical formulas of Hoffmans. Agreement between numerical computations, observed data and empirical formulas is judged to be satisfactory on all major comparisons. The outcome of this study does not only point out the locations where deposition and erosion might take place depending on the weir gate operation, but also analyzes the mechanism of formation and evolution of scour holes after the weir gates.

Transport modelling: macro and micro simulation for the studied case of Funchal

The work done in this thesis attempts to demonstrate the importance of using models that can predict and represent the mobility of our society. To answer the proposed challenges two models were examined, the first corresponds to macro simulation with the intention of finding a solution to the frequency of the bus company Horários do Funchal, responsible for transport in the city of Funchal, and some surrounding areas. Where based on a simplified model of the city it was possible to increase the frequency of journeys getting an overall reduction in costs. The second model concerns the micro simulation of Avenida do Mar, where currently is being built a new roundabout (Praça da Autonomia), which connects with this avenue. Therefore it was proposed to study the impact on local traffic, and the implementation of new traffic lights for this purpose. Four possible situations in which was seen the possibility of increasing the number of lanes on the roundabout or the insertion of a bus lane were created. The results showed that having a roundabout with three lanes running is the best option because the waiting queues are minimal, and at environmental level this model will project fewer pollutants. Thus, this thesis presents two possible methods of urban planning. Transport modelling is an area that is under constant development, the global goal is to encourage more and more the use of these models, and as such it is important to have more people to devote themselves to studying new ways of addressing current problems, so that we can have more accurate models and increasing their credibility.

Combined use of modeling techniques for the development of the conceptual model in simulation projects

The objective of this paper is to utilize the SIPOC, flowchart and IDEF0 modeling techniques combined to elaborate the conceptual model of a simulation project. It is intended to identify the contribution of these techniques in the elaboration of the computational model. To illustrate such application, a practical case of a high-end technology enterprise is presented. The paper concludes that the proposed approach eases the elaboration of the computational model. © 2008 IEEE.

How the delphi and AHP methods are aiding to define the critical success factors priorities in a digital factory project implementation

Digital factory is a concept that offers a collaborative approach to enhance product and production engineering processes through simulation. Products, processes and resources are modeled to be used to develop and test the product conception and manufacturing processes, before their use in the real factory. The purpose of this paper is to present the steps to identify the Critical Success Factors (CSF) priorities in a digital factory project implementation in a Brazilian company and how the Delphi and AHP Methods are aiding to identify these CSF priorities. Copyright © 2008 SAE International.

Simulation of the flow through automatic valves of hermetic compressors by the immersed boundary method approach

The main goal of the present work is to verify the applicability of the Immersed Boundary Method together with the Virtual Physical Model to solve the flow through automatic valves of hermetic compressors. The valve was simplified to a two-dimensional radial diffuser, with diameter ratio of D/d = 1.5, and simulated for a one cycle of opening and closing process with a imposed velocity of 3.0 cm/s for the reed, dimensionless gap between disks in the range of 0.07 < s/d < 0.10, and inlet Reynolds number equal to 1500. The good results obtained showed that the methodology has great potential as project tool for this type of valve systems. © The Authors, 2011.

Numerical simulation of anisotropic polymeric foams

This paper shows in detail the modelling of anisotropic polymeric foam under compression and tension loadings, including discussions on isotropic material models and the entire procedure to calibrate the parameters involved. First, specimens of poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) foam were investigated through experimental analyses in order to understand the mechanical behavior of this anisotropic material. Then, isotropic material models available in the commercial software Abaqus (TM) were investigated in order to verify their ability to model anisotropic foams and how the parameters involved can influence the results. Due to anisotropy, it is possible to obtain different values for the same parameter in the calibration process. The obtained set of parameters are used to calibrate the model according to the application of the structure. The models investigated showed minor and major limitations to simulate the mechanical behavior of anisotropic PVC foams under compression, tension and multi-axial loadings. Results show that the calibration process and the choice of the material model applied to the polymeric foam can provide good quantitative results and save project time. Results also indicate what kind and order of error one will get if certain choices are made throughout the modelling process. Finally, even though the developed calibration procedure is applied to specific PVC foam, it still outlines a very broad drill to analyze other anisotropic cellular materials.

Electrolyte disorders in the human ventricle. A simulation study.

Ventricular cells are immersed in a bath of electrolytes and these ions are essential for a healthy heart and a regular rhythm. Maintaining physiological concentration of them is fundamental for reducing arrhythmias and risk of sudden cardiac death, especially in haemodialysis patients and in the heart diseases treatments. Models of electrically activity of the heart based on mathematical formulation are a part of the efforts to improve the understanding and prediction of heart behaviour. Modern models incorporate the extensive and ever increasing amounts of experimental data in incorporating biophysically detailed mechanisms to allow the detailed study of molecular and subcellular mechanisms of heart disease. The goal of this project was to simulate the effects of changes in potassium and calcium concentrations in the extracellular space between experimental data and and a description incorpored into two modern biophysically detailed models (Grandi et al. Model; O’Hara Rudy Model). Moreover the task was to analyze the changes in the ventricular electrical activity, in particular by studying the modifications on the simulated electrocardiographic signal. We used the cellular information obtained by the heart models in order to build a 1D tissue description. The fibre is composed by 165 cells, it is divided in four groups to differentiate the cell types that compound human ventricular tissue. The main results are the following: Grandi et al. (GBP) model is not even able to reproduce the correct action potential profile in hyperkalemia. Data from hospitalized patients indicates that the action potential duration (APD) should be shorter than physiological state but in this model we have the opposite. From the potassium point of view the results obtained by using O’Hara model (ORD) are in agreement with experimental data for the single cell action potential in hypokalemia and hyperkalemia, most of the currents follow the data from literature. In the 1D simulations we were able to reproduce ECGs signal in most the potassium concentrations we selected for this study and we collected data that can help physician in understanding what happens in ventricular cells during electrolyte disorder. However the model fails in the conduction of the stimulus under hyperkalemic conditions. The model emphasized the ECG modifications when the K+ is slightly more than physiological value. In the calcium setting using the ORD model we found an APD shortening in hypocalcaemia and an APD lengthening in hypercalcaemia, i.e. the opposite to experimental observation. This wrong behaviour is kept in one dimensional simulations bringing a longer QT interval in the ECG under higher [Ca2+]o conditions and vice versa. In conclusion it has highlighted that the actual ventricular models present in literature, even if they are useful in the original form, they need an improvement in the sensitivity of these two important electrolytes. We suggest an use of the GBP model with modifications introduced by Carro et al. who understood that the failure of this model is related to the Shannon et al. model (a rabbit model) from which the GBP model was built. The ORD model should be modified in the Ca2+ - dependent IcaL and in the influence of the Iks in the action potential for letting it him produce a correct action potential under different calcium concentrations. In the 1D tissue maybe a heterogeneity setting of intra and extracellular conductances for the different cell types should improve a reproduction of the ECG signal.