An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Assessing and monitoring impacts of genetically modified plants on agro-ecosystems: the approach of AMIGA project

The environmental impacts of genetically modified crops is still a controversial issue in Europe. The overall risk assessment framework has recently been reinforced by the European Food Safety Authority(EFSA) and its implementation requires harmonized and efficient methodologies. The EU-funded research project AMIGA − Assessing and monitoring Impacts of Genetically modified plants on Agro-ecosystems − aims to address this issue, by providing a framework that establishes protection goals and baselines for European agro-ecosystems, improves knowledge on the potential long term environmental effects of genetically modified (GM) plants, tests the efficacy of the EFSA Guidance Document for the Environmental Risk Assessment, explores new strategies for post market monitoring, and provides a systematic analysis of economic aspects of Genetically Modified crops cultivation in the EU. Research focuses on ecological studies in different EU regions, the sustainability of GM crops is estimated by analysing the functional components of the agro-ecosystems and specific experimental protocols are being developed for this scope.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

PRiMA : project risk management approach

Esta tese propõe uma abordagem sistemática para gerenciar riscos em projetos de software, por meio da adaptação de processos. O objetivo da abordagem é permitir a elaboração de um processo específico para um dado projeto, visando minimizar a exposição do projeto aos riscos, identificados de acordo com o contexto do projeto. As atividades, possíveis de serem executadas em processos de projetos de uma organização, são estruturadas em um framework de processo (PRiMA-F), que inclui também os padrões de processo e organizacionais usados para descrever ações preventivas e corretivas aos riscos. A estruturação do framework básico, construído pela organização, poderá permitir distintas instanciações, como por exemplo, processos de acordo com o paradigma ágil ou planejado, ou em conformidade com normas de qualidade, como CMM e outras; além dos padrões organizacionais e de processo para gestão de riscos de projeto. PRiMA-F define o escopo maior do processo de software da organização e este é adaptado de acordo com os riscos identificados para o projeto e suas necessidades específicas, dando origem ao processo a ser usado no projeto. adaptação. Os guias descrevem como adaptar elementos de processo de acordo com o tamanho e o formalismo do projeto. Configurações de processo são modelos prédefinidos, visando atender projetos típicos ou modelos de qualidade. Prima-F pode ser estendida para novos riscos, padrões e processos, de acordo com as necessidades da organização. Utilizando o paradigma Goal/Question/Metric, no framework de processo (PRiMAF), são definidas métricas do processo de software, associadas aos riscos, para serem usadas para acompanhar o progresso dos fatores de risco, possibilitando ao gerente de projeto tomar ações corretivas, quando necessário e no momento adequado. As ações corretivas são descritas usando padrões organizacionais e de processo. Uma ferramenta de apoio à sistemática proposta (PRiMA-Tool) foi desenvolvida. Estudos de caso foram elaborados para validar a sistemática proposta

Urban Traffic Control and Monitoring - An Approach for the Brazilian Intelligent Cities Project

This paper describes an urban traffic control system which aims at contributing to a more efficient traffic management system in the cities of Brazil. It uses fuzzy sets, case-based reasoning, and genetic algorithms to handle dynamic and unpredictable traffic scenarios, as well as uncertain, incomplete, and inconsistent information. The system is composed by one supervisor and several controller agents, which cooperate with each other to improve the system's results through Artificial Intelligence Techniques.

The Project Data Bank approach to an efficient public investment management system

Includes bibliography

Project Alpha: A culturally appropriate approach to adolescent male sex education

In the United States today, adolescents face unacceptably high rates of mortality and morbidity due to the contraction of HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted diseases and teenage pregnancy. In view of these rates, there is a need for applied preventive interventions to delay adolescent sexual behavior until adulthood. Project Alpha was a school-adopted, quasi-experimental program for adolescent male students attending Sharpstown High School in Houston, Texas. This intervention used student newsletters to provide specific role-model stories on community and student role models who have changed attitudes or improved efficacy to abstain from sexual behavior until adulthood. It was hypothesized that teenagers exposed to the intervention would show improvements in knowledge, beliefs, avoidance skills, perceived norms, intentions and self-efficacy to delay sexual behavior compared to no-treatment reference teenagers in the same school.^ In total, the Project Alpha program had a significant effect on student knowledge, beliefs (towards abstinence and having sex with multiple partners), perceived risk (HIV/STD testing), self-efficacy (could avoid sex with attractive girl who wants to have sex), perceived social norms (friends believing in sexual abstinence) and sexual intentions. However, no significant intervention effects were found in student's beliefs (that it was OK to have sex with girlfriend), perceived risk of HIV/STD, self-efficacy (to avoid sex with girlfriend) and social norms (friends believe it is OK to have sex with a girlfriend and multiple partners in the same month). ^

Digital Data Collection and Processing in Field and Lab: The Approach of Kinneret Regional Project

The paper showcases the field- and lab-documentation system developed for Kinneret Regional Project, an international archaeological expedition to the Northwestern shore of the Sea of Galilee (Israel) under the auspices of the University of Bern, the University of Helsinki, Leiden University and Wofford College. The core of the data management system is a fully relational, server-based database framework, which also includes time-based and static GIS services, stratigraphic analysis tools and fully indexed document/digital image archives. Data collection in the field is based on mobile, hand-held devices equipped with a custom-tailored stand-alone application. Comprehensive three-dimensional documentation of all finds and findings is achieved by means of total stations and/or high-precision GPS devices. All archaeological information retrieved in the field – including tachymetric data – is synched with the core system on the fly and thus immediately available for further processing in the field lab (within the local network) or for post-excavation analysis at remote institutions (via the WWW). Besides a short demonstration of the main functionalities, the paper also presents some of the key technologies used and illustrates usability aspects of the system’s individual components.

Thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction: A cohort study to evaluate a selective approach to invasive diagnosis and therapy. The Corpus Christi Heart Project

Coronary perfusion with thrombolytic therapy and selective reperfusion by percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) were examined in the Corpus Christi Heart Project, a population-based surveillance program for hospitalized acute myocardial infarction (MI) patients in a biethnic community of Mexican-Americans (MAs) and non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). Results were based on 250 (12.4%) patients who received thromobolytic therapy in a cohort of 2011 acute MI cases. Out of these 107 (42.8%) underwent PTCA with a mean follow-up of 25 months. There were 186 (74.4%) men and 64 (25.6%) women; 148 (59.2%) were NHWs, 86 (34.4%) were MAs. Thrombolysis and PTCA were performed less frequently in women than in men, and less frequently in MAs than in NHWs.^ According to the coronary reperfusion interventions used, patients were divided in two groups, those that received no-PTCA (57.2%) and the other that underwent PTCA (42.8%) after thrombolysis. The case-fatality rate was higher in no-PTCA patients than in the PTCA (7.7% versus 5.6%), as was mortality at one year (16.2% versus 10.5%). Reperfusion was successful in 48.0% in the entire cohort and (51.4% versus 45.6%) in the PTCA and no-PTCA groups. Mortality in the successful reperfusion patients was 5.0% compared to 22.3% in the unsuccessful reperfusion group (p = 0.00016, 95% CI: 1.98-11.6).^ Cardiac catheterization was performed in 86.4% thrombolytic patients. Severe stenosis ($>$75%) obstruction was present most commonly in the left descending artery (52.8%) and in the right coronary artery (52.8%). The occurrence of adverse in-hospital clinical events was higher in the no-PTCA as compared to the PTCA and catheterized patients with the exception of reperfusion arrythmias (p = 0.140; Fisher's exact test p = 0.129).^ Cox regression analysis was used to study the relationship between selected variables and mortality. Apart from successful reperfusion, age group (p = 0.028, 95% CI: 2.1-12.42), site of acute MI index (p = 0.050) and ejection-fraction (p = 0.052) were predictors of long-term survival. The ejection-fraction in the PTCA group was higher than (median 78% versus 53%) in the no-PTCA group. Assessed by logistic regression analysis history of high cholesterol ($>$200mg/dl) and diabetes mellites did have significant prognostic value (p = 0.0233; p = 0.0318) in long-term survival irrespective of treatment status.^ In conclusion, the results of this study support the idea that the use of PTCA as a selective intervention following thrombolysis improves survival of patients with acute MI. The use of PTCA in this setting appears to be safe. However, we can not exclude the possibility that some of these results may have occurred due to the exclusion from PTCA of high risk patients (selection bias). ^