999 resultados para Profile predictive likelihood


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This study investigated the differences in personality, consistent with the vocational theory of personality as proposed by Holland (1997), for a modern day firefighter. This study also investigates the relationships between personality characteristics and job duties performed by firefighters and firefighter-paramedics. Archival data from employees (N = 98) of a Southeastern Florida fire department who completed the Hogan Personality Inventory (HPI), Hogan Development Survey (HDS) and Motives, Values, Preferences Inventory (MVPI), as well as a self-report questionnaire on variety proneness (boredom), job satisfaction, and affective well-being data were analyzed. The scores of the firefighters on the HPI, HDS, and MVPI were used as predictive data, and criterion data used in this study were self-report satisfaction data on job involvement, variety proneness (boredom), and affective well-being. In addition, criterion data on performance were obtained from the employment histories of the participants, and were correlated with the personality scale scores to determine if personality is predictive of aspects of performance. ^ Participants in this study varied with respect to the type of firefighter duties required from them on their jobs. The participants were categorized into three duty classifications: Group 1 (G1) are the firefighters hired before 1990 and are only certified as firefighters; Group 2 (G2) are the firefighters hired before 1990 who became paramedics at some point after employment and after fire college training; and Group 3 (G3) are the firefighters hired after 1990 who were trained as paramedics in the fire college and who were aware of the paramedic requirement at time of application or were already trained as paramedics at the time of application. From the research reviewed and presented in this paper, hypotheses were generated about differences between the personality types of firefighter groups G1 and G2 versus G3, in accordance with Holland's theories. In addition, it was hypothesized that personality will predict outcomes of satisfaction and performance. ^ Results found that job satisfaction was not found to be statistically different among the groups. However, the groups differed significantly on 5 of the predictive instrument scales, and personality was found to be a predictor of limited performance data. ^

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The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of performance feedback on Athletic Trainers’ (ATs) perceived knowledge (PK) and likelihood to pursue continuing education (CE). The investigation was grounded in the theories of “the definition of the situation” (Thomas & Thomas, 1928) and the “illusion of knowing,” (Glenberg, Wilkinson, & Epstein, 1982) suggesting that PK drives behavior. This investigation measured the degree to which knowledge gap predicted CE seeking behavior by providing performance feedback designed to change PK. A pre-test post-test control-group design was used to measure PK and likelihood to pursue CE before and after assessing actual knowledge. ATs (n=103) were randomly sampled and assigned to two groups, with and without performance feedback. Two independent samples t-tests were used to compare groups on the difference scores of the dependent variables. Likelihood to pursue CE was predicted by three variables using multiple linear regression: perceived knowledge, pre-test likelihood to pursue CE, and knowledge gap. There was a 68.4% significant difference (t101=2.72, p=0.01, ES=0.45) between groups in the change scores for likelihood to pursue CE because of the performance feedback (Experimental group=13.7% increase; Control group=4.3% increase). The strongest relationship among the dependent variables was between pre-test and post-test measures of likelihood to pursue CE (F2,102=56.80, p<0.01, r=0.73, R2=0.53). The pre- and post-test predictive relationship was enhanced when group was included in the model. In this model [YCEpost=0.76XCEpre-0.34 Xgroup+2.24+E], group accounted for a significant amount of unique variance in predicting CE while the pre-test likelihood to pursue CE variable was held constant (F3,102=40.28, p<0.01, r=0.74, R2=0.55). Pre-test knowledge gap, regardless of group allocation, was a linear predictor of the likelihood to pursue CE (F1,102=10.90, p=.01, r=.31, R2=.10). In this investigation, performance feedback significantly increased participants’ likelihood to pursue CE. Pre-test knowledge gap was a significant predictor of likelihood to pursue CE, regardless if performance feedback was provided. ATs may have self-assessed and engaged in internal feedback as a result of their test-taking experience. These findings indicate that feedback, both internal and external, may be necessary to trigger CE seeking behavior.

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The frailty syndrome is a geriatric medical condition of vulnerability resulting in the decline of physiological reserves, characterized by high-risk consequences as falls, disability, hospitalization, institutionalization and death. Although the presence of comorbidities is not always accompanied by fragility, this presence could also indicate an increased risk of adverse health events, taking the elderly to a greater likelihood of becoming brittle due to the physical limitations that may occur with emergence of diseases, which are strongly predictive of Fragility Syndrome. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of frailty syndrome in the elderly and associated factors. The specific objectives were to identify the prevalence of frailty syndrome in the elderly and their associations with demographic, economic, health, functional and psychological; identify the reasons for the prevalence of frailty syndrome with the demographic profile, health problems, use of legal drugs and problems with sleep of older people. The study was cross-sectional and composed of 385 elderly aged 65 or more. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to check conditions associated with fragility and determine the prevalence ratio (α = 0.05). The prevalence of fragility was 8.7% and pre-fragility of 50.4%. Fragile and pre-frail elderly presented, bigger and increasing prevalence ratio for marital status, difficulty in performing instrumental activities of daily living, old age, involuntary loss of stool, depression and negative affect. Elderly people who do not work have a higher prevalence of fragility, as well as those who reported having had a stroke / stroke / ischemia, those who suffered falls in the last 12 months and those with sleep problems. It is considered that the results, together with other available in the literature, can contribute to the understanding of the fragility epidemiology and also in the implementation of specific programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of frailty, optimizing the quality of life. It is suggested that future programs have special attention to the profiles of elderly people who have not yet developed fragility, i.e., pre-fragile. This could prevent the elderly from becoming frail.

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The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of performance feedback on Athletic Trainers’ (ATs) perceived knowledge (PK) and likelihood to pursue continuing education (CE). The investigation was grounded in the theories of “the definition of the situation” (Thomas & Thomas, 1928) and the “illusion of knowing,” (Glenberg, Wilkinson, & Epstein, 1982) suggesting that PK drives behavior. This investigation measured the degree to which knowledge gap predicted CE seeking behavior by providing performance feedback designed to change PK. A pre-test post-test control-group design was used to measure PK and likelihood to pursue CE before and after assessing actual knowledge. ATs (n=103) were randomly sampled and assigned to two groups, with and without performance feedback. Two independent samples t-tests were used to compare groups on the difference scores of the dependent variables. Likelihood to pursue CE was predicted by three variables using multiple linear regression: perceived knowledge, pre-test likelihood to pursue CE, and knowledge gap. There was a 68.4% significant difference (t101= 2.72, p=0.01, ES=0.45) between groups in the change scores for likelihood to pursue CE because of the performance feedback (Experimental group=13.7% increase; Control group= 4.3% increase). The strongest relationship among the dependent variables was between pre-test and post-test measures of likelihood to pursue CE (F2,102=56.80, p<0.01, r=0.73, R2=0.53). The pre- and post-test predictive relationship was enhanced when group was included in the model. In this model [YCEpost=0.76XCEpre-0.34 Xgroup+2.24+E], group accounted for a significant amount of unique variance in predicting CE while the pre-test likelihood to pursue CE variable was held constant (F3,102=40.28, p<0.01,: r=0.74, R2=0.55). Pre-test knowledge gap, regardless of group allocation, was a linear predictor of the likelihood to pursue CE (F1,102=10.90, p=.01, r=.31, R2=.10). In this investigation, performance feedback significantly increased participants’ likelihood to pursue CE. Pre-test knowledge gap was a significant predictor of likelihood to pursue CE, regardless if performance feedback was provided. ATs may have self-assessed and engaged in internal feedback as a result of their test-taking experience. These findings indicate that feedback, both internal and external, may be necessary to trigger CE seeking behavior.

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Roads represent a new source of mortality due to animal-vehicle risk of collision threatening log-term populations’ viability. Risk of road-kill depends on species sensitivity to roads and their specific life-history traits. The risk of road mortality for each species depends on the characteristics of roads and bioecological characteristics of the species. In this study we intend to know the importance of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) together with traffic and life history traits and understand the role of drought in barn owl population viability, also affected by road mortality in three scenarios: high mobility, high population density and the combination of previous scenarios (mixed) (Manuscript). For the first objective we correlated the several parameters (climate, traffic and life history traits). We used the most correlated variables to build a predictive mixed model (GLMM) the influence of the same. Using a population model we evaluated barn owl population viability in all three scenarios. Model revealed precipitation, traffic and dispersal have negative relationship with road-kills, although the relationship was not significant. Scenarios showed different results, high mobility scenario showed greater population depletion, more fluctuations over time and greater risk of extinction. High population density scenario showed a more stable population with lower risk of extinction and mixed scenario showed similar results as first scenario. Climate seems to play an indirect role on barn owl road-kills, it may influence prey availability which influences barn owl reproductive success and activity. Also, high mobility scenario showed a greater negative impact on viability of populations which may affect their ability and resilience to other stochastic events. Future research should take in account climate and how it may influence species life cycles and activity periods for a more complete approach of road-kills. Also it is important to make the best mitigation decisions which might include improving prey quality habitat.

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Les arthroplasties totales de la hanche (ATH) et du genou (ATG) sont souvent offertes aux patients atteints de dégénérescence articulaire sévère. Bien qu’efficace chez la majorité des patients, ces interventions mènent à des résultats sous-optimaux dans de nombreux cas. Il demeure difficile d’identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux à l’heure actuelle. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser la gamme de soins et de services offerts et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie. Ce mémoire a comme objectifs : 1) de réaliser une revue systématique des déterminants associés à la douleur et aux incapacités fonctionnelles rapportées par les patients à moyen-terme suivant ces deux types d’arthroplastie et 2) de développer des modèles de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles suivant l’ATH et l’ATG. Une revue systématique de la littérature identifiant les déterminants de la douleur et de la fonction suivant l’ATH et l’ATG a été réalisée dans quatre bases de données jusqu’en avril 2015 et octobre 2014, respectivement. Afin de développer un algorithme de prédiction pouvant identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux, nous avons aussi utilisé des données rétrospectives provenant de 265 patients ayant subi une ATH à l’Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont (HMR) de 2004 à 2010. Finalement, des données prospectives sur 141 patients recrutés au moment de leur inclusion sur une liste d’attente pour une ATG dans trois hôpitaux universitaires à Québec, Canada et suivis jusqu’à six mois après la chirurgie ont permis l’élaboration d’une règle de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles. Vingt-deux (22) études d’une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été incluses dans la revue. Les principaux déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH incluaient: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, un indice de la masse corporelle plus élevé, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, une scolarité plus faible, une arthrose radiographique moins sévère et la présence d’arthrose à la hanche controlatérale. Trente-quatre (34) études évaluant les déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATG avec une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été évaluées et les déterminants suivant ont été identifiés: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, un plus grands niveau d’anxiété et/ou de symptômes dépressifs, la présence de douleur au dos, plus de pensées catastrophiques ou un faible niveau socioéconomique. Pour la création d’une règle de prédiction clinique, un algorithme préliminaire composé de l’âge, du sexe, de l’indice de masse corporelle ainsi que de trois questions du WOMAC préopératoire a permis l’identification des patients à risque de résultats chirurgicaux sous-optimaux (pire quartile du WOMAC postopératoire et percevant leur hanche opérée comme artificielle avec des limitations fonctionnelles mineures ou majeures) à une durée moyenne ±écart type de 446±171 jours après une ATH avec une sensibilité de 75.0% (95% IC: 59.8 – 85.8), une spécificité de 77.8% (95% IC: 71.9 – 82.7) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 3.38 (98% IC: 2.49 – 4.57). Une règle de prédiction clinique formée de cinq items du questionnaire WOMAC préopratoire a permis l’identification des patients en attente d’une ATG à risque de mauvais résultats (pire quintile du WOMAC postopératoire) six mois après l’ATG avec une sensibilité de 82.1 % (95% IC: 66.7 – 95.8), une spécificité de 71.7% (95% IC: 62.8 – 79.8) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 2.9 (95% IC: 1.8 – 4.7). Les résultats de ce mémoire ont permis d’identifier, à partir de la littérature, une liste de déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH et l’ATG avec le plus haut niveau d’évidence à ce jour. De plus, deux modèles de prédiction avec de très bonnes capacités prédictives ont été développés afin d’identifier les patients à risque de mauvais résultats chirurgicaux après l’ATH et l’ATG. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser leur prise en charge et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie.

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Les arthroplasties totales de la hanche (ATH) et du genou (ATG) sont souvent offertes aux patients atteints de dégénérescence articulaire sévère. Bien qu’efficace chez la majorité des patients, ces interventions mènent à des résultats sous-optimaux dans de nombreux cas. Il demeure difficile d’identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux à l’heure actuelle. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser la gamme de soins et de services offerts et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie. Ce mémoire a comme objectifs : 1) de réaliser une revue systématique des déterminants associés à la douleur et aux incapacités fonctionnelles rapportées par les patients à moyen-terme suivant ces deux types d’arthroplastie et 2) de développer des modèles de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles suivant l’ATH et l’ATG. Une revue systématique de la littérature identifiant les déterminants de la douleur et de la fonction suivant l’ATH et l’ATG a été réalisée dans quatre bases de données jusqu’en avril 2015 et octobre 2014, respectivement. Afin de développer un algorithme de prédiction pouvant identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux, nous avons aussi utilisé des données rétrospectives provenant de 265 patients ayant subi une ATH à l’Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont (HMR) de 2004 à 2010. Finalement, des données prospectives sur 141 patients recrutés au moment de leur inclusion sur une liste d’attente pour une ATG dans trois hôpitaux universitaires à Québec, Canada et suivis jusqu’à six mois après la chirurgie ont permis l’élaboration d’une règle de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles. Vingt-deux (22) études d’une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été incluses dans la revue. Les principaux déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH incluaient: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, un indice de la masse corporelle plus élevé, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, une scolarité plus faible, une arthrose radiographique moins sévère et la présence d’arthrose à la hanche controlatérale. Trente-quatre (34) études évaluant les déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATG avec une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été évaluées et les déterminants suivant ont été identifiés: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, un plus grands niveau d’anxiété et/ou de symptômes dépressifs, la présence de douleur au dos, plus de pensées catastrophiques ou un faible niveau socioéconomique. Pour la création d’une règle de prédiction clinique, un algorithme préliminaire composé de l’âge, du sexe, de l’indice de masse corporelle ainsi que de trois questions du WOMAC préopératoire a permis l’identification des patients à risque de résultats chirurgicaux sous-optimaux (pire quartile du WOMAC postopératoire et percevant leur hanche opérée comme artificielle avec des limitations fonctionnelles mineures ou majeures) à une durée moyenne ±écart type de 446±171 jours après une ATH avec une sensibilité de 75.0% (95% IC: 59.8 – 85.8), une spécificité de 77.8% (95% IC: 71.9 – 82.7) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 3.38 (98% IC: 2.49 – 4.57). Une règle de prédiction clinique formée de cinq items du questionnaire WOMAC préopratoire a permis l’identification des patients en attente d’une ATG à risque de mauvais résultats (pire quintile du WOMAC postopératoire) six mois après l’ATG avec une sensibilité de 82.1 % (95% IC: 66.7 – 95.8), une spécificité de 71.7% (95% IC: 62.8 – 79.8) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 2.9 (95% IC: 1.8 – 4.7). Les résultats de ce mémoire ont permis d’identifier, à partir de la littérature, une liste de déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH et l’ATG avec le plus haut niveau d’évidence à ce jour. De plus, deux modèles de prédiction avec de très bonnes capacités prédictives ont été développés afin d’identifier les patients à risque de mauvais résultats chirurgicaux après l’ATH et l’ATG. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser leur prise en charge et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie.

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This paper presents a methodology to forecast the hourly and daily consumption in households. The methodology was validated for households in Lisbon region, Portugal. The paper shows that the forecast tool allows obtaining satisfactory results for forecasting. Models of demand response allow the support of consumer’s decision in exchange for an economic benefit by the redefinition of load profile or changing the appliance consumption period. It is also in the interest of electric utilities to take advantage of these changes, particularly when consumers have an action on the demand-side management or production. Producers need to understand the load profile of households that are connected to a smart grid, to promote a better use of energy, as well as optimize the use of micro-generation from renewable sources, not only to delivering to the network but also in self-consumption.

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This paper presents a methodology to forecast the hourly and daily consumption in households assisted by cyber physical systems. The methodology was validated using a database of consumption of a set of 93 domestic consumers. Forecast tools used were based on Fast Fourier Series and Generalized Reduced Gradient. Both tools were tested and their forecast results were compared. The paper shows that both tools allow obtaining satisfactory results for energy consumption forecasting.

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Background: The treatment of B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL) has been enriched by novel agents targeting surface markers CD19 and CD22. Inotuzumab ozogamicin (INO) is a CD22-calicheamicin conjugated monoclonal antibody approved in the setting of relapse/refractory (R/R) B-ALL able to induce a high rate of deep responses, not durable over time. Aims: This study aims to identify predictive biomarkers to INO treatment in B- ALL by flow cytometric analysis of CD22 expression and gene expression profile. Materials and methods: Firstly, the impact on patient outcome in 30 R/R B-ALL patients of baseline CD22 expression in terms of CD22 blast percentage and CD22 fluorescent intensity (CD22-FI) was explored. Secondly, baseline gene expression profile of 18 R/R B-ALL patient samples was analyzed. For statistical analysis of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) patients were divided in non-responders (NR), defined as either INO-refractory or with duration of response (DoR) < 3 months, and responders (R). Gene expression results were analyzed with Ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA). Results: In our patient set higher CD22-FI, defined as higher quartiles (Q2-Q4), correlated with better patient outcome in terms of CR rate, OS and DoR, compared to lower CD22-FI (Q1). CD22 blast percentage was less able to discriminate patients’ outcome, although a trend for better outcome in patients with CD22 ≥ 90% could be appreciated. Concerning gene expression profile, 32 genes with corrected p value <0.05 and absolute FC ≥2 were differentially expressed in NR as compared to R. IPA upstream regulator and regulator effect analysis individuated the inhibition of tumor suppressor HIPK2 as causal upstream condition of the downregulation of 6 DEGs. Conclusions: CD22-FI integrates CD22-percentage on leukemic blasts for a more comprehensive target pre-treatment evaluation. Moreover, a unique pattern of gene expression signature based on HIPK2 downregulation was identified, providing important insights in mechanisms of resistance to INO.

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Few studies have evaluated the profile of use of disease modifying drugs (DMD) in Brazilian patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA). A common research protocol was applied prospectively in 1505 patients classified as SpA by criteria of the European Spondyloarthropathies Study Group (ESSG), followed at 29 referral centers in Rheumatology in Brazil. Demographic and clinical variables were obtained and evaluated, by analyzing their correlation with the use of DMDs methotrexate (MTX) and sulfasalazine (SSZ). At least one DMD was used by 73.6% of patients: MTX by 29.2% and SSZ by 21.7%, while 22.7% used both drugs. The use of MTX was significantly associated with peripheral involvement, and SSZ was associated with axial involvement, and the two drugs were more administered, separately or in combination, in the mixed involvement (p < 0.001). The use of a DMD was significantly associated with Caucasian ethnicity (MTX , p = 0.014), inflammatory back pain (SSZ, p = 0.002) , buttock pain (SSZ, p = 0.030), neck pain (MTX, p = 0.042), arthritis of the lower limbs (MTX, p < 0.001), arthritis of the upper limbs (MTX, p < 0.001), enthesitis (p = 0.007), dactylitis (MTX, p < 0.001), inflammatory bowel disease (SSZ, p < 0.001) and nail involvement (MTX, p < 0.001). The use of at least one DMD was reported by more than 70% of patients in a large cohort of Brazilian patients with SpA, with MTX use more associated with peripheral involvement and the use of SSZ more associated with axial involvement.

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Differential gene expression analysis by suppression subtractive hybridization with correlation to the metabolic pathways involved in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) may provide a new insight into the pathogenesis of CML. Among the overexpressed genes found in CML at diagnosis are SEPT5, RUNX1, MIER1, KPNA6 and FLT3, while PAN3, TOB1 and ITCH were decreased when compared to healthy volunteers. Some genes were identified and involved in CML for the first time, including TOB1, which showed a low expression in patients with CML during tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatment with no complete cytogenetic response. In agreement, reduced expression of TOB1 was also observed in resistant patients with CML compared to responsive patients. This might be related to the deregulation of apoptosis and the signaling pathway leading to resistance. Most of the identified genes were related to the regulation of nuclear factor κB (NF-κB), AKT, interferon and interleukin-4 (IL-4) in healthy cells. The results of this study combined with literature data show specific gene pathways that might be explored as markers to assess the evolution and prognosis of CML as well as identify new therapeutic targets.

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To determine if magnesium deficiency aggravates the effects of a high-fat diet in growing rats in terms of obesity, lipid profile and insulin resistance. The study population comprised 48 newly weaned male Wistar Hannover rats distributed into four groups according to diet, namely, control group (CT; n = 8), control diet provided ad libitum; pair-feeding control group (PF; n = 16), control diet but in the same controlled amount as animals that received high-fat diets; high-fat diet group (HF; n = 12), and magnesium-deficient high-fat diet group (HFMg(-); n = 12). The parameters investigated were adiposity index, lipid profile, magnesium status, insulin sensitivity and the phosphorylation of proteins involved in the insulin-signaling pathway, i.e. insulin receptor β-subunit, insulin receptor substrate 1 and protein kinase B. The HF and HFMg(-) groups were similar regarding gain in body mass, adiposity index and lipid profile, but were significantly different from the PF group. The HFMg(-) group exhibited alterations in magnesium homeostasis as revealed by the reduction in urinary and bone concentrations of the mineral. No inter-group differences were observed regarding glucose homeostasis. Protein phosphorylation in the insulin-signaling pathway was significantly reduced in the high-fat groups compared with the control groups, demonstrating that the intake of fat-rich diets increased insulin resistance, a syndrome that was aggravated by magnesium deficiency. Under the experimental conditions tested, the intake of a magnesium-deficient high-fat diet led to alterations in the insulin-signaling pathway and, consequently, increased insulin resistance.

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Phase I trials use a small number of patients to define a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and the safety of new agents. We compared data from phase I and registration trials to determine whether early trials predicted later safety and final dose. We searched the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website for drugs approved in nonpediatric cancers (January 1990-October 2012). The recommended phase II dose (R2PD) and toxicities from phase I were compared with doses and safety in later trials. In 62 of 85 (73%) matched trials, the dose from the later trial was within 20% of the RP2D. In a multivariable analysis, phase I trials of targeted agents were less predictive of the final approved dose (OR, 0.2 for adopting ± 20% of the RP2D for targeted vs. other classes; P = 0.025). Of the 530 clinically relevant toxicities in later trials, 70% (n = 374) were described in phase I. A significant relationship (P = 0.0032) between increasing the number of patients in phase I (up to 60) and the ability to describe future clinically relevant toxicities was observed. Among 28,505 patients in later trials, the death rate that was related to drug was 1.41%. In conclusion, dosing based on phase I trials was associated with a low toxicity-related death rate in later trials. The ability to predict relevant toxicities correlates with the number of patients on the initial phase I trial. The final dose approved was within 20% of the RP2D in 73% of assessed trials.

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This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.