958 resultados para Probabilistic situation


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Production of desirable outputs is often accompanied by undesirable by products that have damaging effects on the environment, and whose disposal is frequently regulated by public authorities. In this paper, we compute directional technology distance functions under particular assumptions concerning disposability of bads in order to test for the existence of what we call ‘complex situations’, where the biggest producer is not the greatest polluter. Furthermore, we show that how in such situations, environmental regulation could achieve an effective reduction in the aggregate level of bad outputs without reducing the production of good outputs. Finally, we illustrate our methodology with an empirical application to a sample of Spanish tile ceramic producers.

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The behavioral response of Biomphalaria straminea to light was evaluted in terms of location of the snail in a Y-shaped aquarium in a situation of selection and of the rate (cm/hour) and direction of locomotion under homogeneous 9vertical) or differential (horizontal) lighting upon only one arm of the aquarium. The light source consisted of daylight fluorescent lamps with a spectrum close to that of natural light, with illumination varying from 28 to 350 lux. Analysis of the data showed that all animals, whether in groups or isolated, were attracted to light, although the time needed to approach the light source was 50% shorter for the former than for the latter. The rate of locomotion of B. straminea was 35% higher than observed in B. glabrata and 51% higher than that observed in B. tenagophila studied under similar conditions. The results are discussed in terms of social factors and geographical distribution of the three species.

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Dans le cadre de l'activité professionnelle, des facteurs de stress d'ordre psychologique, social, et liés à l'organisation du travail, peuvent induire des réponses physiologiques et comportementales impliquées dans la survenue de pathologies comme les maladies cardiovasculaires, les troubles de la santé mentale et les troubles musculosquelettiques.Le Régime social des indépendants (RSI) a sollicité l'Inserm afin de disposer d'un bilan des connaissances sur le stress d'origine professionnelle chez les travailleurs indépendants et ses répercussions sur la santé.Regroupant à la fois des compétences en biologie, psychologie, sociologie et économie de la santé, cette expertise collective présente les modèles et les mécanismes explicatifs mettant en relation le stress au travail et les principales pathologies.Les stratégies de prévention individuelle et collective qui se développent dans le milieu des travailleurs salariés peuvent-elles être adaptées aux travailleurs indépendants ? [Ed.]

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This paper aims at providing a Bayesian parametric framework to tackle the accessibility problem across space in urban theory. Adopting continuous variables in a probabilistic setting we are able to associate with the distribution density to the Kendall's tau index and replicate the general issues related to the role of proximity in a more general context. In addition, by referring to the Beta and Gamma distribution, we are able to introduce a differentiation feature in each spatial unit without incurring in any a-priori definition of territorial units. We are also providing an empirical application of our theoretical setting to study the density distribution of the population across Massachusetts.

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Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

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Details are given of the prevalence rates of onchocerciasis from the most recent surveys (1989) conducted in northern Ecuador. The disease has intensified and dispersed considerably due to migration of infected individuals and the presence of a highly efficient vector. Comparison of these data with those from two previous surveys carried out in 1982/83 and 1986 and correlated with entomological findings highly the danger of the formation of new foci of onchocerciasis in areas currently free of the disease. Recommendations are made for further entomological studies in areas either recently or likely to be affected by the disease where potential vectors are unknown or different to those registred in the Santiago focus. Invermectin treatment with local vector control in specific areas is advocated to reduce the disease to a low level of public health importance.

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Forensic scientists working in 12 state or private laboratories participated in collaborative tests to improve the reliability of the presentation of DNA data at trial. These tests were motivated in response to the growing criticism of the power of DNA evidence. The experts' conclusions in the tests are presented and discussed in the context of the Bayesian approach to interpretation. The use of a Bayesian approach and subjective probabilities in trace evaluation permits, in an easy and intuitive manner, the integration into the decision procedure of any revision of the measure of uncertainty in the light of new information. Such an integration is especially useful with forensic evidence. Furthermore, we believe that this probabilistic model is a useful tool (a) to assist scientists in the assessment of the value of scientific evidence, (b) to help jurists in the interpretation of judicial facts and (c) to clarify the respective roles of scientists and of members of the court. Respondents to the survey were reluctant to apply this methodology in the assessment of DNA evidence.

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This article discusses dengue in terms of its conceptual and historical aspects, epidemiological and clinical/pathological nature, and evolution up to the present situation in Brazil. The author discusses the ecological relationship in both the production of dengue and its control. Comparison is made between traditional dengue-control programs and a proposed socially-controlled program of an ecological nature without the use of insecticides. Stress is placed on interdisciplinary technical and scientific activity, broadbased participation by communities in discussing methodological aspects involving them, and prospective evaluation comparing the communities selected for intervention and control communities with regard to clinical and subclinical dengue cases and vector infestation rates in relation to climatic, socio-economic, and behavioural factors.

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Specific chemotherapy against schistosomiasis together with environmental changes occurring in endemic areas of Brazil are causing a revolution in the clinico-pathological presentation of the disease when comparing to date from 10 to 15 years ago. To update the subject, an inquire was made among the most experienced Brazilian investigators in this field. They agree that a decrease of about 50 to 70% in prevalence, and an even higher decrease in incidence are taking place in Brazil today. The prevalence of schistosome-infection has decreased in some areas and increased in other, with spreading sometimes occurring to peri-urban regions, indicating that schistosomiasis control depends on the application of multiple measures. General clinical and pathological manifestations related to hepatosplenic disease, such as ascites, gastric hemorrhages, big-spleen syndrome, cor pulmonale, glomerulopathy, etc. are also less severe nowadays than they used to be in the past