MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prospectiva de la llengua a Catalunya: simulació amb autòmats cel·lulars

L'artilce aborda l'aplicació d'eines informàtiques de simulació en l'àmbit psicosocial a la situació de la llengua a Catalunya per extreure'n escenaris de futur. En primer lloc, aborda el context metodològic de la simulació social amb autòmats cel·lulars. En segon lloc, s'aplica el mètode i el sistema als resultats de l''Enquesta d'Usos Lingüístics de Població 2008' i se n'extreuen resultats. Finalment, s'apunten algunes conclusions.

Modeling and manufacturability assessment of bistable quantum-dot cells

We have investigated the behavior of bistable cells made up of four quantum dots and occupied by two electrons, in the presence of realistic confinement potentials produced by depletion gates on top of a GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructure. Such a cell represents the basic building block for logic architectures based on the concept of quantum cellular automata (QCA) and of ground state computation, which have been proposed as an alternative to traditional transistor-based logic circuits. We have focused on the robustness of the operation of such cells with respect to asymmetries derived from fabrication tolerances. We have developed a two-dimensional model for the calculation of the electron density in a driven cell in response to the polarization state of a driver cell. Our method is based on the one-shot configuration-interaction technique, adapted from molecular chemistry. From the results of our simulations, we conclude that an implementation of QCA logic based on simple ¿hole arrays¿ is not feasible, because of the extreme sensitivity to fabrication tolerances. As an alternative, we propose cells defined by multiple gates, where geometrical asymmetries can be compensated for by adjusting the bias voltages. Even though not immediately applicable to the implementation of logic gates and not suitable for large scale integration, the proposed cell layout should allow an experimental demonstration of a chain of QCA cells.

Prospectiva de la llengua a Catalunya: simulació amb autòmats cel·lulars

L"article aborda l"aplicació d"eines informàtiques de simulació en l"àmbit psicosocial a la situació de la llengua a Catalunya per extreure"n escenaris de futur. En primer lloc, s"aborda el context metodològic de la simulació social amb autòmats cel·lulars. En segon lloc, s"aplica el mètode i el sistema als resultats de l"Enquesta d"usos lingüístics de la població 2008 i se n"extreuen resultats. Finalment, s"apunten unes conclusions.

Proceedings of JAC 2010. Journées Automates Cellulaires

The second Symposium on Cellular Automata “Journ´ees Automates Cellulaires” (JAC 2010) took place in Turku, Finland, on December 15-17, 2010. The first two conference days were held in the Educarium building of the University of Turku, while the talks of the third day were given onboard passenger ferry boats in the beautiful Turku archipelago, along the route Turku–Mariehamn–Turku. The conference was organized by FUNDIM, the Fundamentals of Computing and Discrete Mathematics research center at the mathematics department of the University of Turku. The program of the conference included 17 submitted papers that were selected by the international program committee, based on three peer reviews of each paper. These papers form the core of these proceedings. I want to thank the members of the program committee and the external referees for the excellent work that have done in choosing the papers to be presented in the conference. In addition to the submitted papers, the program of JAC 2010 included four distinguished invited speakers: Michel Coornaert (Universit´e de Strasbourg, France), Bruno Durand (Universit´e de Provence, Marseille, France), Dora Giammarresi (Universit` a di Roma Tor Vergata, Italy) and Martin Kutrib (Universit¨at Gie_en, Germany). I sincerely thank the invited speakers for accepting our invitation to come and give a plenary talk in the conference. The invited talk by Bruno Durand was eventually given by his co-author Alexander Shen, and I thank him for accepting to make the presentation with a short notice. Abstracts or extended abstracts of the invited presentations appear in the first part of this volume. The program also included several informal presentations describing very recent developments and ongoing research projects. I wish to thank all the speakers for their contribution to the success of the symposium. I also would like to thank the sponsors and our collaborators: the Finnish Academy of Science and Letters, the French National Research Agency project EMC (ANR-09-BLAN-0164), Turku Centre for Computer Science, the University of Turku, and Centro Hotel. Finally, I sincerely thank the members of the local organizing committee for making the conference possible. These proceedings are published both in an electronic format and in print. The electronic proceedings are available on the electronic repository HAL, managed by several French research agencies. The printed version is published in the general publications series of TUCS, Turku Centre for Computer Science. We thank both HAL and TUCS for accepting to publish the proceedings.

Modélisation de répartition d’espèces aviaires et de feux en forêt boréale du Québec dans un contexte de changement climatique

Les changements climatiques prennent une importance grandissante dans l’étude des phénomènes spatiaux à grande échelle. Plusieurs experts affirment que les changements climatiques seront un des principaux moteurs de changement écologique dans les prochaines décennies et que leurs conséquences seront inévitables. Ces changements se manifesteront sur le milieu physique par la fonte des calottes glaciaires, le dégel du pergélisol, l’instabilité des versants montagneux en zone de pergélisol, l’augmentation de l’intensité, de la sévérité et de la fréquence des événements climatiques extrêmes tels les feux de forêt. Les changements climatiques se manifesteront aussi sur le milieu biologique, tel la modification de la durée de la saison végétative, l’augmentation des espèces exotiques invasives et les changements dans la distribution en espèces vivantes. Deux aspects sont couverts par cette étude : 1) les changements dans la répartition spatiale de 39 espèces d’oiseaux et 2) les modifications dans les patrons spatiaux des feux, en forêt boréale québécoise, tous deux dans l’horizon climatique de 2100. Une approche de modélisation statistique démontre que la répartition spatiale des oiseaux de la forêt boréale est fortement liée à des variables bioclimatiques (R2adj = 0.53). Ces résultats permettent d’effectuer des modélisations bioclimatiques pour le gros-bec errant et la mésange à tête noire quivoient une augmentation de la limite nordique de distribution de l’espèce suivant l’intensité du réchauffement climatique. Finalement, une modélisation spatialement explicite par automate cellulaire permet de démontrer comment les changements climatiques induiront une augmentation dans la fréquence de feux de forêt et dans la superficie brûlée en forêt boréale du Québec.

Programmable Self-Assembly: Constructing Global Shape using Biologically-inspire

In this thesis I present a language for instructing a sheet of identically-programmed, flexible, autonomous agents (``cells'') to assemble themselves into a predetermined global shape, using local interactions. The global shape is described as a folding construction on a continuous sheet, using a set of axioms from paper-folding (origami). I provide a means of automatically deriving the cell program, executed by all cells, from the global shape description. With this language, a wide variety of global shapes and patterns can be synthesized, using only local interactions between identically-programmed cells. Examples include flat layered shapes, all plane Euclidean constructions, and a variety of tessellation patterns. In contrast to approaches based on cellular automata or evolution, the cell program is directly derived from the global shape description and is composed from a small number of biologically-inspired primitives: gradients, neighborhood query, polarity inversion, cell-to-cell contact and flexible folding. The cell programs are robust, without relying on regular cell placement, global coordinates, or synchronous operation and can tolerate a small amount of random cell death. I show that an average cell neighborhood of 15 is sufficient to reliably self-assemble complex shapes and geometric patterns on randomly distributed cells. The language provides many insights into the relationship between local and global descriptions of behavior, such as the advantage of constructive languages, mechanisms for achieving global robustness, and mechanisms for achieving scale-independent shapes from a single cell program. The language suggests a mechanism by which many related shapes can be created by the same cell program, in the manner of D'Arcy Thompson's famous coordinate transformations. The thesis illuminates how complex morphology and pattern can emerge from local interactions, and how one can engineer robust self-assembly.

Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Critical behavior of a contact process with aperiodic transition rates

We performed Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the steady-state critical behavior of a one-dimensional contact process with an aperiodic distribution of rates of transition. As in the presence of randomness, spatial fluctuations can lead to changes of critical behavior. For sufficiently weak fluctuations, we give numerical evidence to show that there is no departure from the universal critical behavior of the underlying uniform model. For strong spatial fluctuations, the analysis of the data indicates a change of critical universality class.

FAST, PARALLEL AND SECURE CRYPTOGRAPHY ALGORITHM USING LORENZ`S ATTRACTOR

A novel cryptography method based on the Lorenz`s attractor chaotic system is presented. The proposed algorithm is secure and fast, making it practical for general use. We introduce the chaotic operation mode, which provides an interaction among the password, message and a chaotic system. It ensures that the algorithm yields a secure codification, even if the nature of the chaotic system is known. The algorithm has been implemented in two versions: one sequential and slow and the other, parallel and fast. Our algorithm assures the integrity of the ciphertext (we know if it has been altered, which is not assured by traditional algorithms) and consequently its authenticity. Numerical experiments are presented, discussed and show the behavior of the method in terms of security and performance. The fast version of the algorithm has a performance comparable to AES, a popular cryptography program used commercially nowadays, but it is more secure, which makes it immediately suitable for general purpose cryptography applications. An internet page has been set up, which enables the readers to test the algorithm and also to try to break into the cipher.

Avaliação do crescimento de ocupação da bacia do rio Pitimbu com subsídios para estudos de possíveis impactos sobre os recursos hidricos

The Pitimbu River Watershed (PRW), belonging to Potiguar capital metropolitan area, State of Rio Grande do Norte, contributes, among other purposes, to human using and animal watering. This watershed is extremely important because, besides filling up with freshwater approximately 30% of the south part of Natal (South, East and West Zones), contributes to the river shore ecosystem equilibrium. Face to the current conjuncture, this study aims to evaluate the urban development dynamics in the PRW, applying Cellular Automata as a modeling instrument, and to simulate future urban scenarios, between 2014 and 2033, using the simulation program SLEUTH. In the calibration phase, urban spots for 1 984, 1992, 2004 and 2013 years were used, with resolution from 100 meters. After the simulation, it was found a predominance of organic growth, expanding the BHRP from existing urban centers. The spontaneous growth occurred through the fullest extent of the watershed, however the probability of effective growth should not exceed 21%. It was observed that, there was a 68% increase for the period between 2014 and 2033, corresponding to an expansion area of 1,778 ha. For 2033, the source of Pitimbu River area and the Jiqui Lake surroundings will increase more than 78%. Finally, it was seen an exogenous urban growth tendency in the watershed (outside-in). As a result of this growth, hydraulics resources will become scarcer

Controlling dispersal dynamics of Aedes aegypti

The dengue virus is transmitted in regions previously infested with the mosquito Aedes aegypti. To assess the spreading and establishment of the dengue disease vector, a mathematical model is developed that takes into account the diffusion and advection phenomena. A discrete model based on the cellular automata approach, which is a good framework to deal with small populations, is also developed to be compared with the continuous modeling.

ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY of STERILE INSECT TECHNIQUE APPLIED TO AEDES AEGYPTI

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Neighborhood Interactions and Larval Dispersal Behavior in Blowflies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)