An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Pricing-to-market using EGARCH-error correction model

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Pairing Repeated Reading and Systematic Error Correction: Impact on Fluency of 18 Year Old Students on a Small Caribbean Island

This study investigates the impact of a combined treatment of Systematic Error Correction and Repeated Reading on reading rate and errors for 18 year olds with undiagnosed reading difficulties on a Caribbean Island. In addition to direct daily measures of reading accuracy, the Reading Self Perception Scale was administered to determine whether the intervention was associated with changes in the way the student perceives himself as a reader.

Development of error correction techniques for nitrate-N load estimation models

Excess nutrient loads carried by streams and rivers are a great concern for environmental resource managers. In agricultural regions, excess loads are transported downstream to receiving water bodies, potentially causing algal blooms, which could lead to numerous ecological problems. To better understand nutrient load transport, and to develop appropriate water management plans, it is important to have accurate estimates of annual nutrient loads. This study used a Monte Carlo sub-sampling method and error-corrected statistical models to estimate annual nitrate-N loads from two watersheds in central Illinois. The performance of three load estimation methods (the seven-parameter log-linear model, the ratio estimator, and the flow-weighted averaging estimator) applied at one-, two-, four-, six-, and eight-week sampling frequencies were compared. Five error correction techniques; the existing composite method, and four new error correction techniques developed in this study; were applied to each combination of sampling frequency and load estimation method. On average, the most accurate error reduction technique, (proportional rectangular) resulted in 15% and 30% more accurate load estimates when compared to the most accurate uncorrected load estimation method (ratio estimator) for the two watersheds. Using error correction methods, it is possible to design more cost-effective monitoring plans by achieving the same load estimation accuracy with fewer observations. Finally, the optimum combinations of monitoring threshold and sampling frequency that minimizes the number of samples required to achieve specified levels of accuracy in load estimation were determined. For one- to three-weeks sampling frequencies, combined threshold/fixed-interval monitoring approaches produced the best outcomes, while fixed-interval-only approaches produced the most accurate results for four- to eight-weeks sampling frequencies.

Error correction testing in panels with common stochastic trends

This paper develops panel data tests for the null hypothesis of no error correction in a model with common stochastic trends. The asymptotic distributions of the new test statistics are derived and simulation results are provided to suggest that they perform well in small samples. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using text-spotting to query the world

The world we live in is well labeled for the benefit of humans but to date robots have made little use of this resource. In this paper we describe a system that allows robots to read and interpret visible text and use it to understand the content of the scene. We use a generative probabilistic model that explains spotted text in terms of arbitrary search terms. This allows the robot to understand the underlying function of the scene it is looking at, such as whether it is a bank or a restaurant. We describe the text spotting engine at the heart of our system that is able to detect and parse wild text in images, and the generative model, and present results from images obtained with a robot in a busy city setting.

A survey: Error control methods used in bio-cryptography

Integration of biometrics is considered as an attractive solution for the issues associated with password based human authentication as well as for secure storage and release of cryptographic keys which is one of the critical issues associated with modern cryptography. However, the widespread popularity of bio-cryptographic solutions are somewhat restricted by the fuzziness associated with biometric measurements. Therefore, error control mechanisms must be adopted to make sure that fuzziness of biometric inputs can be sufficiently countered. In this paper, we have outlined such existing techniques used in bio-cryptography while explaining how they are deployed in different types of solutions. Finally, we have elaborated on the important facts to be considered when choosing appropriate error correction mechanisms for a particular biometric based solution.

Correction: Genome-wide association studies of asthma in population-based cohorts confirm known and suggested loci and identify an additional association near HLA

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Single-Generation Network Coding for Networks with Delay

A single-source network is said to be memory-free if all of the internal nodes (those except the source and the sinks) do not employ memory but merely send linear combinations of the incoming symbols (received at their incoming edges) on their outgoing edges. Memory-free networks with delay using network coding are forced to do inter-generation network coding, as a result of which the problem of some or all sinks requiring a large amount of memory for decoding is faced. In this work, we address this problem by utilizing memory elements at the internal nodes of the network also, which results in the reduction of the number of memory elements used at the sinks. We give an algorithm which employs memory at all the nodes of the network to achieve single- generation network coding. For fixed latency, our algorithm reduces the total number of memory elements used in the network to achieve single- generation network coding. We also discuss the advantages of employing single-generation network coding together with convolutional network-error correction codes (CNECCs) for networks with unit- delay and illustrate the performance gain of CNECCs by using memory at the intermediate nodes using simulations on an example network under a probabilistic network error model.

Network-error correcting codes using small fields

Recently, Ebrahimi and Fragouli proposed an algorithm to construct scalar network codes using small fields (and vector network codes of small lengths) satisfying multicast constraints in a given single-source, acyclic network. The contribution of this paper is two fold. Primarily, we extend the scalar network coding algorithm of Ebrahimi and Fragouli (henceforth referred to as the EF algorithm) to block network-error correction. Existing construction algorithms of block network-error correcting codes require a rather large field size, which grows with the size of the network and the number of sinks, and thereby can be prohibitive in large networks. We give an algorithm which, starting from a given network-error correcting code, can obtain another network code using a small field, with the same error correcting capability as the original code. Our secondary contribution is to improve the EF Algorithm itself. The major step in the EF algorithm is to find a least degree irreducible polynomial which is coprime to another large degree polynomial. We suggest an alternate method to compute this coprime polynomial, which is faster than the brute force method in the work of Ebrahimi and Fragouli.

On t-designs and bounds relating query complexity to error resilience in locally correctable codes

An n-length block code C is said to be r-query locally correctable, if for any codeword x ∈ C, one can probabilistically recover any one of the n coordinates of the codeword x by querying at most r coordinates of a possibly corrupted version of x. It is known that linear codes whose duals contain 2-designs are locally correctable. In this article, we consider linear codes whose duals contain t-designs for larger t. It is shown here that for such codes, for a given number of queries r, under linear decoding, one can, in general, handle a larger number of corrupted bits. We exhibit to our knowledge, for the first time, a finite length code, whose dual contains 4-designs, which can tolerate a fraction of up to 0.567/r corrupted symbols as against a maximum of 0.5/r in prior constructions. We also present an upper bound that shows that 0.567 is the best possible for this code length and query complexity over this symbol alphabet thereby establishing optimality of this code in this respect. A second result in the article is a finite-length bound which relates the number of queries r and the fraction of errors that can be tolerated, for a locally correctable code that employs a randomized algorithm in which each instance of the algorithm involves t-error correction.

A Matroidal Framework for Network-Error Correcting Codes

Matroidal networks were introduced by Dougherty et al. and have been well studied in the recent past. It was shown that a network has a scalar linear network coding solution if and only if it is matroidal associated with a representable matroid. A particularly interesting feature of this development is the ability to construct (scalar and vector) linearly solvable networks using certain classes of matroids. Furthermore, it was shown through the connection between network coding and matroid theory that linear network coding is not always sufficient for general network coding scenarios. The current work attempts to establish a connection between matroid theory and network-error correcting and detecting codes. In a similar vein to the theory connecting matroids and network coding, we abstract the essential aspects of linear network-error detecting codes to arrive at the definition of a matroidal error detecting network (and similarly, a matroidal error correcting network abstracting from network-error correcting codes). An acyclic network (with arbitrary sink demands) is then shown to possess a scalar linear error detecting (correcting) network code if and only if it is a matroidal error detecting (correcting) network associated with a representable matroid. Therefore, constructing such network-error correcting and detecting codes implies the construction of certain representable matroids that satisfy some special conditions, and vice versa. We then present algorithms that enable the construction of matroidal error detecting and correcting networks with a specified capability of network-error correction. Using these construction algorithms, a large class of hitherto unknown scalar linearly solvable networks with multisource, multicast, and multiple-unicast network-error correcting codes is made available for theoretical use and practical implementation, with parameters, such as number of information symbols, number of sinks, number of coding nodes, error correcting capability, and so on, being arbitrary but for computing power (for the execution of the algorithms). The complexity of the construction of these networks is shown to be comparable with the complexity of existing algorithms that design multicast scalar linear network-error correcting codes. Finally, we also show that linear network coding is not sufficient for the general network-error correction (detection) problem with arbitrary demands. In particular, for the same number of network errors, we show a network for which there is a nonlinear network-error detecting code satisfying the demands at the sinks, whereas there are no linear network-error detecting codes that do the same.

Ergodicity and Mixing Rate of One-Dimensional Cellular Automata

One-and two-dimensional cellular automata which are known to be fault-tolerant are very complex. On the other hand, only very simple cellular automata have actually been proven to lack fault-tolerance, i.e., to be mixing. The latter either have large noise probability ε or belong to the small family of two-state nearest-neighbor monotonic rules which includes local majority voting. For a certain simple automaton L called the soldiers rule, this problem has intrigued researchers for the last two decades since L is clearly more robust than local voting: in the absence of noise, L eliminates any finite island of perturbation from an initial configuration of all 0's or all 1's. The same holds for a 4-state monotonic variant of L, K, called two-line voting. We will prove that the probabilistic cellular automata Kε and Lε asymptotically lose all information about their initial state when subject to small, strongly biased noise. The mixing property trivially implies that the systems are ergodic. The finite-time information-retaining quality of a mixing system can be represented by its relaxation time Relax(⋅), which measures the time before the onset of significant information loss. This is known to grow as (1/ε)^c for noisy local voting. The impressive error-correction ability of L has prompted some researchers to conjecture that Relax(Lε) = 2^(c/ε). We prove the tight bound 2^(c1log^21/ε) ＜ Relax(Lε) ＜ 2^(c2log^21/ε) for a biased error model. The same holds for Kε. Moreover, the lower bound is independent of the bias assumption. The strong bias assumption makes it possible to apply sparsity/renormalization techniques, the main tools of our investigation, used earlier in the opposite context of proving fault-tolerance.