924 resultados para Prior Probability


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With the purpose of approximating two issues, oral narrative and constructive memory, we assume that children, as well as adults, have a constructive memory. Accordingly, researchers of the constructive memory share with piagetians the vision that memory is an applied cognition. Under this perspective, understanding and coding into memory constitute a process which is considered similar to the piagetian assimilation of building an internal conceptual representation of the information (hence the term constructive memory. The objective of this study is to examine and illustrate, through examples drawn from a research about oral narrative with 5, 8 and 10 years old children, the extent to which the constructive memory is stimulated by the acquisition of the structures of knowledge or ""mental models"" (schemes of stories and scenes, scripts), and if they automatically employ them to process constructively the information in storage and rebuild them in the recovery. A sequence of five pictures from a book without text was transformed into computerized program, and the pictures were thus presented to the children. The story focuses on a misunderstanding of two characters on a different assessment about a key event. In data collection, the demands of memory were preserved, since children narrate their stories when the images were no longer viewed on the computer screen. Each narrative was produced as a monologue. The results show that this story can be told either in a descriptive level or in a more elaborated level, where intentions and beliefs are attributed to the characters. Although this study allows an assessment of the development of children`s capabilities (both cognitive and linguistic) to narrate a story, there are for sure other issues that could be exploited.

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The acceptance-probability-controlled simulated annealing with an adaptive move generation procedure, an optimization technique derived from the simulated annealing algorithm, is presented. The adaptive move generation procedure was compared against the random move generation procedure on seven multiminima test functions, as well as on the synthetic data, resembling the optical constants of a metal. In all cases the algorithm proved to have faster convergence and superior escaping from local minima. This algorithm was then applied to fit the model dielectric function to data for platinum and aluminum.

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Purpose The third-generation nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are increasingly used as adjuvant and first-line advanced therapy for postmenopausal, hormone receptor-positive (HR +) breast cancer. Because many patients subsequently experience progression or relapse, it is important to identify agents with efficacy after AI failure. Materials and Methods Evaluation of Faslodex versus Exemestane Clinical Trial (EFECT) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled, multicenter phase III trial of fulvestrant versus exemestane in postmenopausal women with HR + advanced breast cancer (ABC) progressing or recurring after nonsteroidal AI. The primary end point was time to progression (TTP). A fulvestrant loading-dose (LD) regimen was used: 500 mg intramuscularly on day 0, 250 mg on days 14, 28, and 250 mg every 28 days thereafter. Exemestane 25 mg orally was administered once daily. Results A total of 693 women were randomly assigned to fulvestrant (n = 351) or exemestane ( n = 342). Approximately 60% of patients had received at least two prior endocrine therapies. Median TTP was 3.7 months in both groups ( hazard ratio = 0.963; 95% CI, 0.819 to 1.133; P = .6531). The overall response rate ( 7.4% v 6.7%; P = .736) and clinical benefit rate ( 32.2% v 31.5%; P = .853) were similar between fulvestrant and exemestane respectively. Median duration of clinical benefit was 9.3 and 8.3 months, respectively. Both treatments were well tolerated, with no significant differences in the incidence of adverse events or quality of life. Pharmacokinetic data confirm that steady-state was reached within 1 month with the LD schedule of fulvestrant. Conclusion Fulvestrant LD and exemestane are equally active and well-tolerated in a meaningful proportion of postmenopausal women with ABC who have experienced progression or recurrence during treatment with a nonsteroidal AI.

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Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

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Objectives/Hypothesis: Blood supply to the Hadad-Bassagasteguy pedicled nasoseptal flap may be interrupted by surgery of the pterygopalatine fossa, posterior septectomy, or large sphenoidotomies. This would preclude its use for reconstruction of skull base defects after expanded endonasal approaches (EEA). We present a novel method to ascertain the patency of the nasoseptal artery after prior surgery, and consequently the availability of the nasoseptal flap, using acoustic Doppler sonography. Study Design: Retrospective clinical review. Methods: Four patients who underwent EEAs were evaluated intraoperatively with acoustic Doppler sonography. The mucosa that covers the inferior aspect of the rostrum of the sphenoid sinus was scanned with the tip of the probe. Reflection of sound waves representing intravascular blood flow was assessed. Results: In three patients, the artery was identified in at least one side. One remaining patient showed no acoustic signal suggesting loss of the nasoseptal artery bilaterally, therefore necessitating the use of a fat graft for the reconstruction. Conclusions: Acoustic Doppler sonography seems to be a feasible and effective way to ascertain the availability of the nasoseptal artery. It is a relatively inexpensive and simple technique that can be performed by any endoscopic surgeon.

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Aim: To determine the possible factors predicting the insulin requirement in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Method: A total of 294 patients with GDM diagnosed by the 100-g/3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were studied. The following factors were analyzed: maternal age, nulliparity, family history of diabetes, prepregnancy BMI, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, multiple pregnancy, polyhydramnios, gestational age at diagnosis of GDM, smoking, hypertension, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). The association between each factor and the need for insulin therapy was then analyzed individually. The performance of these factors to predict the probability of insulin therapy was estimated using a logistic regression model. Results: Univariate analysis showed a positive correlation between insulin therapy and prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, hypertension, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c (P < 0.05). Prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values and HbA1c were statistically significant variables in the logistic regression model. Conclusions: The probability of insulin therapy can be estimated in pregnant women with GDM based on prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c concentration. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Our purpose was to retrospectively compare controlled ovarian stimulation(COH) in IVF cycles with administration of hCG on the day of menses (D1-hCG) with women not receiving hCG at day 1 of menses (Control). Data on maternal age, endocrine profile, amount of rFSH required, embryo characteristics, implantation and pregnancy rates were recorded for comparison between D1-hCG (n = 36) and Control (n = 64). Dose of rFSH required to accomplish COH was significantly lower in D1-hCG. Following ICSI, more top-quality embryos were available for transfer per patient in the D1-hCG and biochemical pregnancy rates per transfer were significantly higher in the D1-hCG. Significantly higher implantation and on-going pregnancy rates per embryo transfer were observed in D1-hCG (64%) compared to Control (41%). Administration of D1-hCG prior to COH reduces rFSH use and enhances oocyte developmental competence to obtain top quality embryos, and improves implantation and on-going pregnancy rates. At present it is not clear if the benefit is related to producing an embryo that more likely to implant or a more receptive uterus, or merely fortuitous and related to the relatively small power of the study.

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Objectives We evaluated demographic, clinical, and angiographic factors influencing the selection of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery versus percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in diabetic patients with multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD) in the BARI 2D (Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes) trial. Background Factors guiding selection of mode of revascularization for patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel CAD are not clearly defined. Methods In the BARI 2D trial, the selected revascularization strategy, CABG or PCI, was based on physician discretion, declared independent of randomization to either immediate or deferred revascularization if clinically warranted. We analyzed factors favoring selection of CABG versus PCI in 1,593 diabetic patients with multivessel CAD enrolled between 2001 and 2005. Results Selection of CABG over PCI was declared in 44% of patients and was driven by angiographic factors including triple vessel disease (odds ratio [OR]: 4.43), left anterior descending stenosis >= 70% (OR: 2.86), proximal left anterior descending stenosis >= 50% (OR: 1.78), total occlusion (OR: 2.35), and multiple class C lesions (OR: 2.06) (all p < 0.005). Nonangiographic predictors of CABG included age >= 65 years (OR: 1.43, p = 0.011) and non-U.S. region (OR: 2.89, p = 0.017). Absence of prior PCI (OR: 0.45, p < 0.001) and the availability of drug-eluting stents conferred a lower probability of choosing CABG (OR: 0.60, p = 0.003). Conclusions The majority of diabetic patients with multivessel disease were selected for PCI rather than CABG. Preference for CABG over PCI was largely based on angiographic features related to the extent, location, and nature of CAD, as well as geographic, demographic, and clinical factors. (Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes [BARI 2D]; NCT00006305) (J Am Coll Cardiol Intv 2009;2:384-92) (C) 2009 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

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PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

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Ischemia and reperfusion injury (IRI) contributes to the development of chronic interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy in renal allograft patients, Cyclooxygenase (COX) 1 and 2 actively participate in acute ischemic injury by activating endothelial cells and inducing oxidative stress. Furthermore, blockade of COX I and 2 has been associated with organ improvement after ischemic damage. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of COX I and 2 in the development of fibrosis by performing a COX I and 2 blockade immediately before IRI We subjected C57BI/6 male mice to 60 min of unilateral renal pedicle occlusion, Prior to surgery mice were either treated with indomethacin (IMT) at days -1 and 0 or were untreated. Blood and kidney samples were collected 6 wks after IRI. Kidney samples were analyzed by real-time reverse transcription-poly me rase chain reaction for expression of transforming growth factor beta (TGF-beta), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1), osteopontin (OPN), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin (IL)-1 beta, IL-10, heme oxygenose 1 (HO-1), vimentin, connective-tissue growth factor (CTGF), collagen 1, and bone morphogenic protein 7 (BMP-7), To assess tissue fibrosis we performed morphometric analyses and Sirius red staining. We also performed immunohistochemical analysis of anti-actin smooth muscle, Renal function did not significantly differ between groups. Animals pretreated with IMT showed significantly less interstitial fibrosis than nontreated animals. Gene transcript analyses showed decreased expression of TGF-beta, MCP-1,TNF-alpha, IL-1-beta, vimentin, collagen 1, CTGF and IL-10 mRNA (all P < 0.05), Moreover, HO-I mRNA was increased in animals pretreated with IMT (P < 0.05) Conversely, IMT treatment decreased osteopontin expression and enhanced BMP-7 expression, although these levels did rot reach statistical significance when compared with control expression levels, I he blockade of COX 1 and 2 resulted in less tissue fibrosis, which was associated with a decrease in proinflammatory cytokines and enhancement of the protective cellular response.

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The endocannabinoid system has become a topic of great interest in pharmacology due to its remarkable distribution in mammal organisms and capacity to play a modulatory role on several physiological systems, including modulation of immunity. Many studies have shown that administration of cannabinoids causes inhibitory effects on immune cells, including decreased proliferation and antigen-presenting cell (APC) costimulatory activity. In contrast, other groups have shown that some cannabinoids might present stimulatory actions on macrophage activity and T cell activation. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether a treatment in vivo with a low dose of anandamide (0.1 mg/kg) immediately prior to sensitization would have an immunosuppressive or immunostimulatory effect on cell-mediated immunity (Th1 response) in mice. We report here that anandamide, prior to sensitization, was able to increase the Th1 response to ovalbumin in vivo and ex vivo. Anandamide increased delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH), splenocyte proliferation, and IFN-gamma production in a co-culture of adherent and non-adherent splenocytes. Moreover, anandamide prior to sensitization increased both the expression of DC co-stimulatory molecules (CD80/CD86) and IL-12/IL23 (p40) production ex vivo. We have also assessed direct effects of anandamide in the IFN-gamma/IL-4 balance of ConA-stimulated splenocytes in vitro. Anandamide at nanomolar concentrations increased the production of IFN-gamma, while such production decreased at micromolar range. Thus, anandamide induced both the increment of DC activation and IFN-gamma production, which are likely the mechanisms involved in the increase of Th1 response reported here. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objectives: This study compared the reliability and fracture patterns of zirconia cores veneered with pressable porcelain submitted to either axial or off-axis sliding contact fatigue. Methods: Forty-two Y-TZP plates (12 mm x 12 mm x 0.5 mm) veneered with pressable porcelain (12 mm x 12 mm x 1.2 mm) and adhesively luted to water aged composite resin blocks (12 mm x 12 mm x 4 mm) were stored in water at least 7 days prior to testing. Profiles for step-stress fatigue (ratio 3:2:1) were determined from single load to fracture tests (n = 3). Fatigue loading was delivered on specimen either on axial (n = 18) or off-axis 30 degrees angulation (n = 18) to simulate posterior tooth cusp inclination creating a 0.7 mm slide. Single load and fatigue tests utilized a 6.25 mm diameter WC indenter. Specimens were inspected by means of polarized-light microscope and SEM. Use level probability Weibull curves were plotted with 2-sided 90% confidence bounds (CB) and reliability for missions of 50,000 cycles at 200 N (90% CB) were calculated. Results: The calculated Weibull Beta was 3.34 and 2.47 for axial and off-axis groups, respectively, indicating that fatigue accelerated failure in both loading modes. The reliability data for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N load with 90% CB indicates no difference between loading groups. Deep penetrating cone cracks reaching the core-veneer interface were observed in both groups. Partial cones due to the sliding component were observed along with the cone cracking for the off-axis group. No Y-TZP core fractures were observed. Conclusions: Reliability was not significantly different between axial and off-axis mouth-motion fatigued pressed over Y-TZP cores, but incorporation of sliding resulted in more aggressive damage on the veneer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.