The future of the Franco-German tandem. OSW Commentary No. 83, 2012-07-11

Following the victories of François Hollande in the presidential election and the Socialist Party in the parliamentary election, the existing model of relations between Germany and France as symbolised by the Merkel-Sarkozy duo is undergoing a transformation. Along with the defeat for Sarkozy, who had fostered close cooperation with the German Chancellor, we are witnessing a change in the German-French modus operandi, which was based on making confidential agreements concerning the anti-crisis measures in the eurozone and then presenting ready-made solutions to other EU members (as in the case of the successive versions of the document currently known as the fiscal pact). However, a conflict in bilateral relations, which would mean a total breakdown of the Franco-German engine, is rather unlikely. In fact, François Hollande’s proposals have diminished the appearance of the two states’ exceptional compatibility, and have restored the specific relationship affected by the natural rivalry between two states, who because of their economies’ different orientation have divergent interests. Nevertheless, both sides are destined to reach a compromise, as neither can attain its goals in the face of the other’s opposition. In the long term, Hollande is likely to maintain a common front with Germany in fighting the crisis, while at the same time trying (with his allies from the south of the EU) to limit Berlin’s political and economic superiority.

The Orange Revolution in Ukraine: An attempt to understand the reasons. OSW Study 18/2005

The Ukrainian society in the run-up to the 2004 presidential election was in a state which political science literature characterises as an almost "ideal" condition for an outbreak of social unrest. Growing expectations, both economic and political, seemed vain due to mounting impediments. The victory of Viktor Yanukovych was perceived by many opinion-makers as a nail in the coffin of such aspirations.

The oligarchic democracy: The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics. OSW Study 42/2012

The Ukrainian oligarchic system, which developed into its ultimate shape during Leonid Kuchma’s second presidency, turned out to be very durable. The nature of close relations between the government and the oligarchs has not undergone any major changes either as a consequence of the Orange Revolution or following Victor Yanukovych’s victory in the presidential election of 2010. Although reshuffles have taken place inside the political and business elites, nothing seems to be able to change this system, at least in the medium term. This text is aimed at presenting the network of connections existing between big business and politics in Ukraine and at pointing to the key oligarchic groups and the political forces they support. A definite majority of papers concerning contemporary Ukrainian politics as a rule disregard or deal with this subject very superficially, while it is impossible to understand modern Ukraine without understanding a number of dependencies existing between the political and business elites there.

A game played according to Lukashenka’s rules: the political opposition in Belarus. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 176, 08.07.2015

The Belarusian opposition is currently experiencing its deepest crisis since Alyaksandr Lukashenka took power in 1994. Following many months of negotiations, opposition leaders failed to select a joint candidate for the presidential election scheduled for 11th October. The failure of this latest round of talks has proven that not only is the opposition unlikely to threaten Lukashenka’s rule; it will not even be able to demonstrate to society that it could provide a genuine alternative to the present government.

Abstract of the Proceedings of the Boards of Supervisors of the county of Chautauqua : from its organization to the year 1867 inclusive.

"Together with a brief historical sketch of the earlier boards and their members; also, a list of county officers, the vote of the several towns, at each presidential election, etc. compiled ... to 1820 ... by Hon. Elial T. Foote. Compiled from 1820-1867 from the original records, by Lucius Hurlbut ... "

The wise sayings of the Honorable Isaac Hill.

In 1828, the New Hampshire Journal was published by Henry E. Moore. The newspaper supported Adams in the presidential election.

Political pamphlets (United States) from the Durrett collection...1801-[1878] arranged chronologically.

Title page typewritten.

DEODORO DA FONSECA A PROPAGANDA POLÍTICA DO PRIMEIRO PRESIDENTE DO BRASIL

Estudo sobre a história política do primeiro presidente do Brasil, Manoel Deodoro da Fonseca, na ótica da propaganda política. Os objetivos foram resgatar os materiais de propaganda utilizados pelo movimento republicano que culminou com a Proclamação da República chefiada por Deodoro em 15 de novembro de 1889. Posteriormente, compreender o processo eleitoral ao qual o generalíssimo foi escolhido presidente pelos congressistas, por meio do voto indireto, no dia 25 de fevereiro de 1891. A metodologia adotada foi a Pesquisa Histórica enfatizando o estudo bibliográfico e documental. Também foram descritas as charges publicadas na Revista Illustrada no Governo Provisório, a cobertura do jornal O País na eleição presidencial e o cenário de censura na imprensa da época. Na conclusão consta que Deodoro não fez campanha eleitoral. Nem precisou, pois caso não fosse eleito, o Exército o proclamaria ditador. No entanto, os deodoristas convenceram os deputados e senadores a votarem no marechal. Já, a oposição fez campanha política lançando edição extra de jornal, espalhando cartazes pela Capital Federal e aprovando moções de repúdio à candidatura da situação. Essa eleição foi simplesmente uma formalidade para manter Deodoro no cargo mais importante do país. (AU)

CAMPANHA PRESIDENCIAL DE ARTHUR DA COSTA E SILVA: A festa da democracia autoritária

Em 1966 o Brasil chegava ao término do primeiro governo do regime militar. Disputavam o poder dois grupos das Forças Armadas, a Sorbonne e a Linha Dura. Esta indicou o nome do Ministro da Guerra Arthur da Costa e Silva como candidato à sucessão do Presidente Castello Branco. Costa e Silva fez campanha, percorrendo o Brasil para conhecer os problemas nacionais e apresentar suas propostas. O inusitado está no fato de a eleição ser indireta e apenas os membros do Congresso Nacional ter direito a voto, estando a população à margem da escolha do novo mandatário do país. O objetivo do trabalho é traçar o perfil do Marechal Arthur da Costa e Silva levantando fatos históricos que o tornaram, em 1966, um candidato viável à Presidência da República do Brasil e compreender a estratégia de marketing eleitoral utilizada. O trabalho utilizou como metodologia a pesquisa bibliográfica, entrevistas semiestruturadas com personagens que viveram a época e análise de conteúdo dos jornais O Estado de São Paulo e Jornal do Brasil, para indicar suas posições na cobertura das eleições presidenciais de 1966.

Transforming the eastern neighbourhood: the security implications of European Union Activity in Ukraine 2000-2006

This thesis examines the external activities of the European Union conducted in the wider Europe against the backdrop of eastern enlargement. It focuses on the technical aspects of EU diplomacy, using qualitative research methodology to study the programmes and initiatives launched since the year 2000 in the countries lying along the Union’s new border to the east. Drawing on evidence from Ukraine, it hypothesises that the EU is an agent of transformation in the eastern neighbourhood and that this transformation has important implications for the regional order in the post-Soviet space. The thesis constitutes an investigation into the transformational activities engaged by the EU in Ukraine conducted with an eye to their strategic implications. It documents and analyses three instances of EU intervention in Ukraine’s internal processes that relate to management of cross-border traffic in the Ukrainian-Russian borderland, restructuring of the country’s energy sector, and conduct of its contentious presidential election in 2004. It is argued that while these interventions have explicitly sought to advance the Union’s security with respect to certain twenty-first century transnational threats, they have at the same time served to confer important strategic advantages on the EU that include giving the bloc greater knowledge and control over developments in Ukraine and that contribute to the dismantling of infrastructural, institutional and other ties between Kiev and the other Soviet successor states, notably Russia. The effect of the European Union’s actions in the region, whether intended or not, has thus been to undermine any competing regional initiatives that cut across its own functions, and thereby to assert itself as the primary integration project in Europe. By showing how technical interventions in the politics, economics and administration of Ukraine can yield important geopolitical dividends, this thesis demonstrates that, in the context of EU external relations, high and low politics are interlinked.

The Great Slump of 2008–9 and Ukraine's integration with the European Union

For a number of years following the Orange revolution of 2004, Ukraine aspired to join the European Union. Although full integration was never a short-term prospect, European integration, through the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, offers considerable benefits to Ukraine. However, the country was severely affected by the Great Slump of 2008–9 in the global economy, and this profoundly negative experience has shaped Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy in the subsequent period, putting paid to aspirations to EU membership and influencing the Ukrainian government's decision to seek a closer relationship with Russia immediately following the presidential election of 2010. Nevertheless, closer relations with Russia should not adversely affect Ukraine's efforts at EU integration.

The extreme right in France:from Pétain to Le Pen

The Front National has for some years been France's third political party and the most notable far-right force in Europe; its leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, contested the 2002 presidential election run-off with 5.5 million votes. What do Le Pen and the FN represent? What are their historical roots, their values and their policies? Who votes for them and why? And what has been their impact on the political agenda in France? Adopting an essentially chronological approach, the book traces the political lineage of Le Pen and the FN through key figures, movements and events on the French extreme right from the Vichy regime to the present, providing a detailed historical perspective for understanding the FN today. Part I provides a historical study of the extreme right in France since 1940, examining • the Vichy regime, collaboration and ‘collaborationism’, • the aftermath of Liberation and the post-war extreme right, • the Poujadist movement and the politics of populism, • the Algerian War as a catalyst for change, • the ‘Nouvelle Droite’ and the search for doctrinal renewal, • old and new forms of extreme-right ideology and activism. Part II undertakes a comprehensive study of the FN, analysing • the party’s early development and electoral rise, • its evolving programme and strategy, • the factors underlying its popular appeal, • the geography and composition of its electorate, • its exercise of local power and regional influence, • and its defining impact on the national political agenda. The FN, it is argued, represents both the latest manifestation of a long tradition of authoritarian nationalism and a complex new phenomenon within the changing social and political dynamics of contemporary France.

Political radicalism in France:perspectives on a protean concept

This introductory article reflects on the new momentum that political radicalism has taken on in France. The ebb and flow of radical aspiration featured regularly in French politics under the Fourth and early Fifth Republics, before the failure of the "Socialist experiment" in the early 1980s brought about a paradigm shift. In the wake of this failure and with the "end of ideology" supposedly in sight, political leaders and parties tempered their appeals to radical solutions and conspired, not least through recurrent power-sharing, to vacate mainstream political discourse of much of its former radicalism. Since the presidential election of 2007, however, there has been a marked return to promises of radical change as the common currency of political discourse across the full left-right spectrum in France. This article introduces a special issue of French Politics, Culture & Society that brings together scholars from France, Britain, and Canada to discuss some of the meanings, expressions, and prospects of political radicalism in France today.

Support for Le Pen in France:two elections in trompe l’oeil

There is a comforting consensus among political commentators that the 2007 presidential election marked the end of Jean-Marie Le Pen as a force in French politics. The shock election of the Front National leader to the presidential run-off in 2002, by contrast, is explained as a surge in the Le Pen vote specific to the prevailing electoral conditions. This article challenges that interpretation of both elections. It shows that, despite Le Pen’s unforeseen success in 2002, there was no surge of support for him, and that despite Le Pen’s supposed collapse in 2007, he won close to 4 million votes while popular agreement with his ideas rose to its highest recorded level. The article concludes that Le Pen remains a powerful presence in French politics and that his supporters continue to constitute a large and highly influential constituency.